Shortly after Ron Francis was named GM of the Carolina Hurricanes, I wrote a blog at Hockeybuzz about a “2 year bridge” that Francis would need to cross before he could finally build his own team. The short version of it was that Francis would be incredibly limited for two years because of the volume of $ already committed to contracts through the 2015-16 season. We are now halfway through the “bridge” phase and have also had a couple other developments that impact this situation.
An interesting way to frame it is to look at how much money the Canes have tied up in overpriced/financially bad contracts by year:
Entering 2014-15, the Canes had the following (real $ not salary cap):
Cam Ward – 2 yrs at $6.8M/yr.
Eric Staal – 2 yrs at $9.4M/yr.
Alexander Semin – 3 yrs at $7M/year.
Tuomo Ruutu (retained salary) – 2 yrs at $1M/yr.
John-Michael Liles – 2 yrs at $3.5M/yr.
Total is $27.7M/yr for 5 players on overpriced contracts.
Entering 2015-16, not much changed except that Ward and EStaal’s $/yr actually went up by a small amount because of escalating contracts and Liles price came down a little bit.
But if you look at next summer compared to this summer the results are astounding. The team gets back $22.5M in salary needing to replace or re-sign only 3 players (EStaal, Ward, Liles). Part of the $22.5M savings is Wisniewski’s contract dipping from $5M this year to $3M next year and also Harrison and Ruutu salary retained of $1.4 ending with the bulk being EStaal, Ward and Liles coming off contract.
If Francis could re-sign EStaal for $7M and either re-sign or replace Ward to fill 1 of 2A and 2B slots for goalie for $2.7M and then replace Liles with one of the kids earning about $1M/year, the team is basically the same but with $11.8M/year saved. Even if the owners want to pocket some of that savings, you can see where Ron Francis finally gains some financial flexibility to make some moves to architect a team that is truly his.
Unfortunately, next summer is not great for free agent shopping, but that is for another Daily Cup of Joe some other day.
Go Canes!
I won’t revert back to the JR bashing that many of us are accustomed to, but you just cannot overlook the shape that he left this team in. RF was not set up to succeed with what he had, but he has made the best of a bad hand so far. Part of me wants to see Eric re-signed for a bit less than what you mentioned (maybe 6-6.5), though I admit that is probably based more off of the disappointment that this team has been than anything else. When you look at the quality of talent from his draft class and where he stacks up point-wise, it’s hard to argue that he has had a solid career. The downside is that this team has very rarely given him anywhere near the supporting talent needed to pull the Canes out of the NHL doldrums.
Moving to Ward, I would again say that 2.7 is the high end of what I would offer, at least initially. When you take a look at his career stats, they are painfully average. Yes, my comment about Staal not having adequate support also rings true for team defense, though his save percentage has often been subpar. I know that can be skewed by an abundance of high quality chances, but the overall picture is not very positive. If he shows that he can still compete, I am fully behind offering him a reasonable contract but, at best, he has to be viewed as a 1B, if not full-time backup.
That said, quite a bit is riding on how Lack performs. The obvious best case is that he takes the crease and runs with it, relegating Ward to backup status. However, if Lack falters and Ward is unable to stabilize the goaltending for any period of time, this team is toast. Another possibility, albeit one that is more far-fetched to me, is that Lack struggles, Ward bolsters the goaltending and ends up pricing himself out of a new contract here. The flip side of that scenario is that Ward would increase his trade value, enabling RF to ship him out and focus on re-stocking the goaltending.
All in all, this will be a very interesting season. Goaltending, as in many recent years, will be a huge story. I have a lot of hope for Lack, though I am tempering that with the mixed results of Dobby’s time here. That said, Lack has good size, a very positive disposition and seems to have been thrown off kilter by the indecisiveness of the management in Vancouver. For now, I’m staying cautiously optimistic.