After holding out to the wire, the Carolina Hurricanes made a blockbuster trade near the end of the two-day 2018 NHL Draft event. In parting ways with two young, high ceiling players in Noah Hanifin and Elias Lindholm and adding a bona fide top 4 defenseman in Dougie Hamilton plus a good middle 6 type forward in Micheal Ferland with a blue line prospect to boot, the new leadership of the Carolina Hurricanes made its first foray into high stakes dealing. In so doing, the management group by committee is now one up on Ron Francis in terms of making such deals.
I covered the direct player implications of the trade HERE.
And I followed up yesterday with a part two that looked at a number of significant side items HERE.
So the burning question is what’s next?
Sticking to the original needs/plan
On June 11, my Daily Cup of Joe identified three primary needs to build a winner for the 2018-19 season:
1) Goaltending
2) Adding a steady top 4 defenseman to solidify the top 4
3) Adding one higher-end offensive forward
Saturday’s trade made a step in the right direction to address #2 but interestingly in swapping a left shot for a right shot, the move could actually trigger another to balance the lineup.
In working through the checklist, the goalie situation is still untouched. One option, Philipp Grubauer, came off the table when the Avalanche won him, but there are still a couple options available when the free agent market opens on July and possibly a couple more via trade.
Dougie Hamilton adds a bona fide top 4 defenseman, but in some ways he just adds to the work to be done. By trading a left shot in Hanifin and obtaining Hamilton who is a right shot, the Hurricanes now have a log jam on the right side with Pesce, Hamilton, Faulk and van Riemsdyk (restricted free agent).
And while the trade did net a replacement for Elias Lindholm in Micheal Ferland, the team could still use one more scorer.
So what happens next?
I think three things that could become intertwined are being worked on in unison.
On defense
On defense, I am on record as believing that Justin Faulk is likely to be traded before July when a no-trade clause kicks in on his contract. And I think the Hurricanes will need to add a left shot top 4-capable defenseman to pair with Hamilton and finally solidify the defense going into the season instead of betting big on players improving or stepping into bigger roles.
From the free agent list Calvin de Haan is the player who jumps out at me. The Islander defenseman has had injury issues, but when healthy he is a solid and steady even if maybe unspectacular top 4 defenseman and quite possibly a perfect fit for the more Pitkanen-ish Hamilton. The challenge is winning his attention in what is always an overbid market for free agent defensemen and probably having to overpay a bit to get him. But as I said on Twitter today, overpaying modestly in the free agent market might not be the worst thing. I think of it as a combination of transactions through which the Hurricanes part ways with Faulk (possibly for a good collection of futures and/or a forward) and also obtain de Haan. The haul is significantly more than just trading Faulk to add a defenseman.
Regardless of how many steps it takes or how it comes about, I think ideally the Hurricanes will part ways with Faulk and will along the way add a left shot defenseman to replace him.
In goal
At some point, the Hurricanes need to also add another starter-capable #1 goalie. Unless something changes, odds are that Cam Ward will depart after free agency begins, and the team will add another #1-capable goalie to join Scott Darling.
The most likely options are a small group of unrestricted free agents in Carter Hutton, Robin Lehner and Jonathan Bernier though there could also be goalies available via trade especially if the Hurricanes are in fact shopping Justin Faulk and/or Jeff Skinner.
At forward
Thus far, the Hurricanes are roughly break even with the departure of Elias Lindholm and arrival of Micheal Ferland. The biggest question is Jeff Skinner. If the volume of rumors and rumblings are any indication, he seems destined to be gone as well. If that occurs, one would hope that one of the deals returns at least one higher-end forward who can help replace some of Skinner’s scoring
My best guess
1) Justin Faulk is traded this week
With a no-trade clause set to take effect on July 1 and Faulk sitting in a duplicate role as a third top 4 right shot defenseman, I will be surprised if he is not dealt before July. Because the Hurricanes have multiple needs and a couple moving parts, I think the team could go ‘best available value’ for Faulk figuring it can adjust from there.
2) The Hurricanes add a goalie via free agency
While there are certainly goalies who could be available in a big trade that includes one of Justin Faulk or Jeff Skinner, I think the most likely solution is that the Hurricanes add one of Robin Lehner, Carter Hutton or Jonathan Bernier. Carter Hutton seems to be getting top billing right now, but the thought of making a third consecutive bet on a proven backup goalie successfully making the transition to a starting role in Raleigh horrifies. Robin Lehner comes with some baggage, but maybe that shortens the contract and in the process reduces risk. Lehner does have experience as a starter and even success in that role. Like Lehner, Bernier has experience in a starting role including 289 games at the NHL level and experience times three moving to new teams.
3) Jeff Skinner also departs though not necessarily so soon
With the addition of Hamilton and the potential for Skinner’s no-trade clause to throw a wrench in things, Skinner now seems more likely to be with the team in October as compared to Faulk. But the sheer volume of rumors and rumblings around Skinner right now suggest that he too could be on the move.
One interesting thing I read is that even after signing Ilya Kovalchuk the Los Angeles Kings had an offered Jake Muzzin for Max Pacioretty only to have the deal vetoed by Pacioretty and his no-trade clause. I originally suggested this exact trade for Skinner. So if the possibly preferred Pacioretty is not available for left wing scoring help, the question is whether the Kings would instead consider Skinner in a similar deal.
Regardless, the odds seem to be reasonably high that Jeff Skinner could also be on the move.
So the work list is a significant one right now at least considering doing additional big deals for young, veteran top half of the roster players and adding a starting goalie along the way.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Do you agree that the addition of Hamilton as a right shot spells end of Faulk’s run with the Hurricanes?
2) Which, if any, of the free agent goalies do you like? Do you instead have a potential target or two who might be obtained via trade?
3) Is Jeff Skinner also destined to depart?
4) Who has the guts to predict specific deals?
Go Canes!
Interesting interview with TD over on WRAL.
He indicates that Darling is staying.
Also PDG was signed on a one way deal, which makes me think Skinner is getting more likely to stay. These two have showed flashes of chemistry.
Will answer questions after coffee.
I agree with the Faulk logic but I think we have a lot of risk at Center for the next 1-2 years as Aho and Necas adjust and settle in to new roles.
We can be more patient with Skinner only because we have to until the Tavares issue is settled and more teams move on to Plan B. The fact remains that he is gone for nothing after this year though maybe we do something at the trade deadline (but I sure hope we’re not selling). I still think moving him now is the answer.
All goalies are crapshoots so I have no idea.
Crazy trade-of-the-day: Justin Faulk for Charlie Coyle.
1) A. It makes sense for a right-shot defenseman to be moved. B. The consensus before any trades was that the Canes were likely to move Hanifin or Faulk, not both. C. Two right-shot defensemen probably have higher trade value than Faulk. D. While I think it is most likely that Faulk now gets moved, I wouldn’t rule out Pesce being traded for a forward who can play C (Nylander, RNH, Schmaltz). The other option with a small possibility is that Hamilton is moved again similar to Hoffman–back into the West because Calgary wouldn’t move him within the conference. Hamilton has the most value. I think it highly unlikely, but I think flipping him to Edmonton for RNH and Sekera could happen (basically the Canes would be trading Hanifin and Lindholm for RNH, Sekera, and Ferland, which would address the veteran LHD, center, and harder to play against issues–and if you really want to play three-dimensional GM it would keep Slavin, Pesce, Faulk, Fleury out of the 2020 expansion draft).
2) Goalies in Raleigh might as well be trigonometry. I will leave it to people who are good at that.
3) I am becoming less convinced Skinner moves. Waddell mentioned how he values scoring. I don’t Skinner netting any player who replaces more than 60% of his scoring. Now I still think it is more likely than not Skinner gets moved, just saying I was almost certain Friday, now I wouldn’t be surprised either way.
4) Why not.
Hamilton and Skinner to Edmonton for RNH and Kris Russell.
Faulk is likely gone, but not because of Hamilton, though that does help. It would be due to the culture change. He seemed lost, seemed to lack fire and really repeated to us the same line (play 60 minutes, blah blah).
We need a proven NHL starter, or a guy who has handled the rigors of the starting role even if on a struggling team. I’ve said before Jake Allen and Jonathan Bernier should be targets, but I’m also warming up to Lehner because I think he has the attitude and toughness that can break through the goalie muck here in Raleigh.
Skinner will be traded. If the report is true that he provided a small list of teams, for culture alone he will be dealt. When you play on a struggling team for 7 years a fresh start for him and team is due. My best take:
-Faulk, Sarella and TVR rights to MIN for Nino-or-Zucker + Nate Prosser
-Lehner signed to a 3yr x 3mil deal
-Enstrom signed to 2yr x 3mil deal
-Skinner to TOR for Kapanen and TOR 2nd
…our back end could look like this:
Slavin/Hamilton
Enstrom/Pesce
Fleury/Prosser (or McKweon/Fora)
Lehner
Darling
1. Probably yes. Though I’m not against adding Da Hahn and bumping Faulk down to third pairing and trading TVR.
2. I am thinking Lenner, though I am not thrilled with the any of the choices. I would not be surprised that the Canes sign Ward and go forhth with the same duo as last year, as much as that sounds like the very definition of insanity.
If Ward is willing to sign for 1.5 mill and if Darling has worked his behind off with a trainer, well, I wouldn’t be surprised. I’d like to add Sparks as a goalie prospect option behind the two (note my trade proposal does not include Sparks, we can put him on our Christmas wishlist).
3. I find it less likely that Skinner departs with the resigning of PDG. I’d peg the odds at 50/50 (or 60/50 if you want to be mathematically silly).
4. Some package of Faulk or TVR and skinner to Edm for Drisaitl (hope not since I never remember how to spell his name). The Oilers keep saying RNH is not available, but they are overloaded at center and need d and more scoring from the wing. Faulk has good chemistry with a certain defenseman in Edmunton and Skinner could score 300 goals if centered by MacDavid. Also their contract situation is seriously top heavy. It’s a risk but this guy is young and pretty good. If he pans out as a top tier center the deal might turn out to be reasonable giving the cap inflation, but there is a risk, like with any player on a long-term deal, that he will be the albatross, but I think he’s worth a gamble. I wouldn’t mind having Klefbom thrown in but I doubt the Canes could get that lucky.
Also the Wild are a potential trade partner. There is a new GM in town and he wants to retool the roster.
The problem is that the Canes do not want to be settled with Tyler Ennis and his contract, but the Wild apparently want him to get the puck out of Minnesota.
And by puck I mean .. well … yeah.
The trade on Saturday opened the door for more moves and also showed me the team wants to win now. Real player for player hockey trades really happen in the NHL. I had almost concluded that trading for current talent was a myth in faraway lands like Nashville or San Jose.
I am confident Faulk will be with a new team in the next few days. His return could be a left shot dman or forward. He has value to teams who want a PP leader and big shot from the point. I agree with others that Pesce has more value but his skill set, long term contract and essential consistency will keep him with the canes.
I wrote a week or so ago that Lehner was a guy to consider. He is volatile at times but he has played over 50 games the last two seasons. In 2016-17 he actually played well. In 2017-18 his numbers suffered but Buffalo was terrible as a whole. Lehner and Darling as a tandem could hopefully be solid enough to get the team over the hump and back to the playoffs. I don’t expect spectacular but steady enough that overall team dynamics and talent make everyone better. Every goalie comes with some uncertainty but Lehner can start and I still want him to have at least one goalie fight.
I think Skinner is traded after Tavares signs his deal. Skinner and the canes need a new start. What I absolutely don’t want to see is Duchene, part two. Carolina is ready to start a new chapter and turn the page. Skinner trade rumors do not need to be hovering over the team in October. He has value and in a week or so should have the opportunity to start his new chapter.
Shout out to Don Waddell after the trade this weekend. He handled the farewell to Lindholm and Hanifin with class. He could have talked about high demands or untapped potential but he chose the high road. Good for him. Calgary threw Dougie under the proverbial Greyhound in an ugly fashion. The new brain trust has done well in my opinion.
I am intrigued with Lehner. It’s pretty clear he is on the outs in Buffalo. If I remember correctly he criticized his teammates publicly about backchecking and defensive responsibility a year or two back. A bad move to do it publicly, but even worse move to implicate the golden child in Buffalo. He may benefit greatly from a change in scenery.
1) I think the Canes may trade Faulk. If he is/was one of the problems in the room, he goes. If he wasn’t a problem, then it will depend upon the return they get. One thing I have gotten from Dundon is that he will do things on his terms. I like that. If Faulk stays I think the Canes are in pretty good shape on D. Hamilton is a solid defensive defenseman as well as an offensive threat. That said, there is no reason he has to check the opponent’s top line. Slavin and Pesce are perfectly suited for that role. Hamilton and Fleury would be a good pair, IMO. If you are looking for a team that does something similar look to San Jose. Burns rarely checks the other team’s top line. That is Braun and Vlasic’s job.
2. Who knows. I am pretty goalie ignorant. I only know when they screw up. There are no home runs out there. You grab the best guy you can and hope he performs.
3. Maybe. Sounds like the Skinner camp has put some significant restrictions on the Canes as to where he would like to be traded. I go back to the part about how Dundon likes to do things on his terms. Skinner may well be back even though I believe both sides would like for him to move on.
4. Not me. I have no clue. Most of the deals I hear here would be great…for the Canes. I don’t think other teams value our players nearly as much as our fans do.
Guys my only concern is simple – I understand that the team is excited to have added an 18 year old prospect. I saw that likely projections have him topping both 20 goals and 50 points in his rookie season. I do think the Canes needed this sort of extra offense but before the beginning of the off-season I believed this team wasn’t just ONE difference making forward away but MULTIPLE.
Goaltending for SURE is at the top of the list as something that needs to be sorted out. But to put defense second? I have to laugh. The Canes d-corps now features PEsce, Slavin, Faulk, Hamilton, Fleury, (TVR), Mckeown and Carrick. By simple virtue of switching Hanifin for Hamilton this is actually SO much better than last year – and nobody looked at the d-corps as a weakness last year. Sure, balancing it out would be nice and ESPECIALLY if that balance comes from trading Faulk for a difference making forward. The problem I see here is that 1. Skinner is not getting Jake Muzzin if the Habs were going to accept Muzzin for PAcioretty – the Canes would need to be sending a bit more for sure. Secondly, let’s be careful that we don’t replace 30-40 pts of Faulk with 40-50 pts as a forward – much like Calgary traded a dman who has more pts than the ‘promising forward’ they acquired in Lindholm.
This team needs to be in on FORWARDS. Whether it be through trade – or my preference is to look in free-agency where the team doesn’t need to give up any assets except for cap space. The list of left wing free agents this year is VERY DEEP, and at center I would argue that any of Stastny, Bozak or Riley Nash (right handed shot) would be a huge help for this club.
I will be EXTREMELY disappointed if the Hurricanes go into next season with a forward group that = Ferland for Lindholm and rookies for departing FAs. This is a recipe to miss the playoffs again with another lackluster offense. This team CANNOT score and we are still talking about defense and goaltending 4 years later. Please for just once in my life can we watch an offensively average Hurricanes team so that we can see positive ramifications on the blueline.
Seriously – this team has gone from Ward with a million different 1b options and it has always failed. ward and khudobin, ward and lack, ward and leighton, ward and darling. It has ALL failed. So why do we think that Hutton, Mrazek, Lehner – more 1B options going to come in and be BETTER than the previous guys we had there? Perhaps a logical conclusion is that there are other areas of the team that are seriously broken that should be addressed first. Do we REALLY think that if the Canes didn’t have a league average offense along with this new blueline that a ‘mediocre tandem of Ward and Khudobin’ couldn’t get the Canes into the playoffs? I don’t buy it. Get this team some scoring and they’ll be a playoff team with Jorge Alves in net.
Remember when the Canes had an elite offense back in 05-06? That blueline was on paper – an ABSOLUTE disaster. The goaltending on paper? an ABSOLUTE disaster. Yet when you have a team that had Matt Cullen as your 3rd line C, and Brindy and Staal above it – you have effectively built an elite offensive caliber team such that they masked the deficiencies in other areas enough to an extent by god they won a Stanley Cup!!
The D looked bad on paper in ’05-’06 because their assumptions were based upon what made a good D before the lockout. After the lockout everything changed when all the clutching and grabbing was limited. Smart, mobile D were what was important and the Canes already had those. It wasn’t that the forwards made up for the D, it was the fact the people judging the D were dead wrong.
Maybe next year is a little dark, but our three year plan is stellar. We don’t need to blow our load for next year. We’re making moves, changing the culture, but you gotta let it grow a little bit.
With Necas and Svechnikov learning the ropes and a bunch of rookies waiting in the wings, this is exactly what we want. Maybe not in the short-term, but letting these kids play is how they grow.
We all want playoffs sure, but more than that, we want Cups. And the best way to get to that level is to let these kids play, IMO. They have the talent. We have the teachers. Let’s stir it all together, stick it in the oven and have a little bit of patience, because the end result is going to be absolutely delicious.
I disagree quite a bit about the forwards. The Canes don’t need to get impatient. Players like Staal, Aho, TT, and Svetchnikov aren’t going anywhere and should improve. You have players like Zykov and Foegele to add the to mix. Shorting their time by overpaying for a possible upgrade is short sighted. Dundon isn’t overpaying for anything anyway.
This team should be better next year. I don’t think they are going to challenge for the cup, but they should have a decent chance of making the playoffs if they get solid goaltending. That’s a good step forward and something they can build on. No point getting desparate and hijacking the team’s future.
Everyone’s insight is much appreciated very interesting comments.
1+3) I continue to believe that both Faulk and Skinner are destined to depart. For Skinner, there is no way we get equal back – but that is not the point of that trade – unless there is an extension agreed upon (and that is what hung up Pacioretty being moved to LAK). So the trade scenario has to be – value/term back in return for an extension; or treat him like a one-year rental and look for picks/prospect; or something in between with a sweetener.
I expect Faulk will be moved this week as well. And I wouldn’t be surprised to see Rask in a different uniform by the beginning of the season.
3) Interestingly, I think Darling is going to prove to be the choice. He has moved permanently to Raleigh (bought a house in May) and has been here since early June working out with the Canes S&C coach. He is making the commitment that Canes have asked of him. He will show up at training camp in the best shape of his life, I expect. And I expect he is spending time with Bailes on the ice as well. He will be stronger and quicker, with more endurance.
I just read LeBrun’s article (from yesterday?) – apparently Skinner not being traded is because there may not be that much interest in Skinner. LeBrun specifically said that SJS are not interested. And LAK went after Pacioretty. And didn’t Waddell recently say we still want to do trades but we need trade partners?
Fans tend to overvalue the players on their team. Skinner is an example. A one year rental of a player that has been inconsistent offensively and substandard defensively. I wouldn’t give up a lot for that.
First let me say that Scott Darling deserves credit for taking steps to rectify a rough 2017-18 season.
That said, I think people are overestimating the impact of “being in the best shape of his life.” No doubt his conditioning an pre-season commitment played a role in 2017-18. But the battle he needs to fight to rebound in 2018-19 will be more mental than physical. When he has 2 bad games in a row (because that is what happens in a long NHL season), will the demons take over, fill him with doubt and lead to demise?
I do not think a rebound is impossible. He proved he could win at the NHL level at least in some capacity. But though the physical training helps, I do not think that is what stacks the odds against him for 2018-19.
I think comfort in a location and a more relaxed demeanor when his mind is fully focused on hockey, is more conducive to better play. Not guaranteed by any means, but if he gets anywhere near as comfortable here as he was in Chicago, there’s no reason to believe he can’t be part of a successful goaltending picture for the Canes in 17-18. He has years worth of experience overcoming demons. He can beat an .888 save percentage, lol.
Agree 100%. Big mental challenge for Darling AND his teammates. He let them down. He has to convince them and himself that he is a #1 goalie. Getting in shape is step 1, but much more to be done.
It will likely also help if the team stops giving up grade A chances in front of him, but Faulk will be traded soon enough. Here’s hoping Scott gets his mojo back.
Hearing that Edm is really hot on Ristolainen, which means if it happens they will need to replace a top RHD. Can you say Faulk for ROR. This would def be a good possibility. The only catch with this scenario though is:
We would want to wait to after July 1st to not pay ROR bonus but Faulk NMC kicks in on July 1st also. Aghhhhhhh…..
Well maybe there is some way DW can make it work. Maybe Faulk would sign off to go there to play with Dahlin. Let’s hope so.
This trade I would do all day long, with a twist. Faulk + Rask (combined $9.5 mil in salary) for O’Reilly (7.5 mil in salary) and perhaps take on another 2-3 mil in salary that Buffalo wants to shed.
The benefits – we increase payroll by 2 mil to strengthen us down the middle. Aho can play another year or two on wing with ROR as 1C, Necas 2C, Staal 3C and Wallmark 4C. With a decent goalie pickup via free agency, this team looks real good.
I’m with you on that angle too live_free !!
Good thoughts. ROR would solidfy our middle & give us solid, veteran leadership centers with ROR & Staal. Most Teams that go far in the playoffs are really strong down the middle especially if those guys are your leaders.
1. It makes it easier to trade him ,since we don’t need quite as high a return.
2. I’d look at Lehner. He’s got starting time, so we don’t have to hope that 4ht time is the charm with backups. And I hope Darling rebounds, so we get better goaltending.
3. Only if he wants to move.
4. Nope.