I actually wrote this initially last week but held off on finishing/posting it until after a Hurricanes win, so it would hopefully be read more as a straightforward opinion on the team’s forward personnel and not as an indictment of them.
The Hurricanes scoring woes are well-documented. The team is currently 28th in the NHL with 2.58 goals per game. I would not say that the rank is necessarily surprising. The team parted ways with Jeff Skinner and the 25-35 goals he has provided in recent years. When Skinner returned only futures and Faulk stayed, the Hurricanes more or less tried to replace Jeff Skinner’s scoring with hoped for scoring from players who had yet to score an NHL goal. Martin Necas was deemed ready to produce in the NHL as was 2018 first-round draft pick Andrei Svechnikov. When Necas struggled early and was sent to the AHL, and Svechnikov seemed destined for more of a gradual rise, the team was suddenly chock full of depth scoring but minus enough difference-making offensive catalysts.
Below is my categorization of the Hurricanes forward group. Important to note is that this is based on the here and now and not projections that look forward.
True offensive difference-makers
Sebastian Aho: Whether at wing or at forward, I think it is fair to say that Aho has established himself as a top line scoring forward. He seems destined for a point per game in 2018-19. Important to note is that I do not see any other player on the roster as currently being a true difference-maker.
Complementary top 6 scoring forwards
Teuvo Teravainen: Teravainen fits nicely with Aho, has a broad enough skill set to play in the top 6, but I still view him as being only a complementary player and not one who is capable of driving a scoring line. To be more, I think he needs to take on more of a scorer’s mentality and play like he is determined to score 30+ goals.
Micheal Ferland: Ferland is the type of player who fits incredibly well on a scoring line whose other players are the skilled/playmaking variety. Ferland came with the expectation that he could hang with a scoring line and muck it up around the crease and finish some. He does bring that skill set, but his ability to receive/finish has been significantly underrated. Skill lines do well with one player who does not need to handle the puck much to be effective. Ferland is exactly that type of player.
Solid third line forwards/depth scorers
Jordan Staal: To be clear, I think there is a case to call Staal a top 6 forward, but it must be in a lineup that gets above average scoring from its third line. But with this exercise being focused on offense/scoring, Staal’s perennial 40s for points with a bunch of ice time and regular helping of power play ice time is depth scoring level and much more third line than second line.
Andrei Svechnikov: His potential is much higher, and based on his current upward trend, it could even be reached this season. But through 32 games, his 25-goal pace is on the fence, but I am making him earn an ascension into the top 6.
Justin Williams: With his current level of mobility, I do not see Williams as an every game top 6 forward at this stage of his career. His scoring pace of under 50 points is similar to Svechnikov pushing up to the top of the third line but not quite that of a true top 6 forward.
Lower third line / fourth line so far in 2018-19
Lucas Wallmark: Wallmark has settled in nicely at the NHL level. He reminds me of Victor Rask when he broke in as a player who was sound in terms of positioning and decision-making. And he is a player who has offensive upside from where he is right now, but calling it like it is his 30ish-point place with power play time included is really light for a third line center.
Victor Rask: Following a tough 2017-18 season offensively, Rask has been slow out of the gate offensively again in 2018-19 after being delayed by injury. He is on pace for 14 points right now.
Clark Bishop: Bishop has settled nicely as a consistently physical forward and capable checking line center. But based on both his development prior to this year and also his play in 2018-19, he is limited offensively and really old school fourth line scoring-wise.
Warren Foegele: After a fast start, he crashed back to earth in a big way. The real version of Foegele should be somewhere in the middle, but his skill set is more that of a great checking line forward than a pure scorer.
Phil Di Giuseppe: He brings consistent physical play and seemingly has more skill/scoring than he has ever really produced at the NHL level. Until shown otherwise, Di Giuseppe is a capable fourth line forward offensively and not more.
Brock McGinn: He scored goals at a higher pace last year, but I still put his game roughly in the same category as players like Di Giuseppe and Martinook who can contribute offensively but are probably a bit light for a third line role in today’s NHL.
Jordan Martinook: It will be interesting to track the rest of his 2018-19 season. Right now, he is the 2017-18 McGinn on this team scoring goals at a higher rate than projected for him and very good for his role that includes no power play ice time. Based on history and skill set, I view a player like Martinook as being a great depth scorer for a fourth line but not truly third line-capable over the long haul on a playoff caliber hockey team.
Netting it out
Especially when one considers Janne Kuokkanen’s capable play and players like Martin Necas in the AHL who should help soon, the Hurricanes have become deeper at the forward position. The team could probably pull a #13, #14 and #15 forward from the AHL and not lose too much if replacing the fourth line. But the team is still significantly short on true top end talent and (here I go again) in need of at least one more playmaking/offensive catalyst type forward who can fuel a second scoring line.
Give me a playmaking center who can generate offense and suddenly Jordan Staal becomes the third line offensively (still first checking line with top defensive responsibilities) and there is less of a spotlight on his scoring. Note that there is no guarantee and the schedule is unknown, but Martin Necas does project to be this type of player.
Give me one more pure finisher who is capable of 30 goals if given enough opportunities. Andrei Svechnikov projects to be exactly this type of player, and he has made strides in that regard recently. But the question is how long it will take him to mature and reach such a a high level.
Those two changes make all the difference in the world. With them, the Hurricanes suddenly have two legitimate scoring lines. But without them, the Hurricanes offense is a top scoring line and then three depth scoring lines.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Do you disagree with my right now assessment for any of the players?
2) Do you think the current organizational depth chart can generate a couple more true top 6 forwards (not players who might be that someday) soon enough, or do you think the team needs to look outside for a trade or free agent addition next summer?
3) Which of the young Hurricanes forwards either included in the bottom tier or not included at all do you see as becoming top 6 scoring forwards in the NHL within the next two years?
Go Canes!
1) I do. Matt, you and most fans, are inconsistent in how you look at certain players.
I think you sell low on Martinook and Wallmark.
Martinook is third on the team in even-strength goals. His shooting % of 10.7 should be sustainable. It is above his career average, but he has played with much better line mates, which accounts for the difference. Fifteen to 20 goals is likely and is definitely in the solid third line category.
Wallmark is likely to see his shooting % increase a good bit. He has had absolutely no puck luck. Still in the last 20 games he has produced 11 points. Wallmark is a solid playmaker capable of sustaining a 40-45 point pace over the next 50 games. That along with his above average defense makes him a solid third line center.
While you are overly cautious regarding Martinook, you (and again you are joined by most Canes fans) may be too enamored of Ferland. I too love his physicality. But purely from a production standpoint, he is much closer to Martinook than Teravainen. You mentioned history for Martinook. The same view should be taken for Ferland. He played most of his games last season with Gaudreau and Monahan. He ended with 41 points (20 assists). Lindholm has 20 assists in 34 games with that duo. Ferland IS a top power play forward. However, I would dispute your point about skill lines needing a player who is only a finisher. Some of Aho’s struggles were due to the top line needing a third player who can assist his line mates. Ferland has 8 of his goals in bunches–one four game streak and another with four goals in 5 games. He hasn’t assisted on a goal in his last 14 games–that stretch corresponds pretty well with Aho and Teravainen having goal droughts. It is a stretch to call Ferland superior to Svechnikov and Williams. An objective view indicates that he likely limits the Canes one difference maker.
2) I think a trade is required to improve the forward group. There are 20+ goal scorers in the organization (Necas, Kuokkanen, maybe even Gauthier) but they are 2-3 years from having that success in the NHL.
3) Svechnikov is likely to be top 6 for the remaining 50 goes this season. It is apparent that things are starting to come together for Svech. None of us would be surprised if he ends with 25 goals. Many commenters here have stated that it is time to play Svech with Aho. I agree. Svech/Aho/Teravainen could be the Canes version of a Colorado/Dallas top line. Ferland would still get his power play goals and paired with Martinook and Wallmark might just create some scoring by out-banging opponents.
Kuokkanen will figure it out–likely next season. But I see him as regularly scoring around 20 goals. He doesn’t turn 21 until after the season, give him time. Though truthfully, I think it will be two years before Kuokkanen is in the second grouping.
I concur with ct that you undervalue Wallmark and Martinook. I also concur with his reasoning so I won’t repeat his words. 🙂
I also think you way undervalue Svech. The first half of his time here he was trying to figure out the NHL game and how to score against NHL rookies. I think he is figuring that out and he is playing with a lot more confidence as well. I think extrapolating his goal count out to include the beginning of his learning curve is a disservice to his actual scoring productivity this season. He is already a top-6 forward.
I really don’t see any of the other current Canes roster players being legtimate top-6.
Dropping down to Charlotte, Necas comes to mind of course. I thought it was interesting that Vellucci. when asked by Jason Shaya in his game-day interview about Necas being called back up based on his current play, drpped the phrase “expansion draft”. That strongly suggested to me that they do not intended to recall Necas this season because it will trigger the need to protect him against Seattle. I also noticed they pulled all the Necas merchandise from The EYe. And that is probably a good thing for Necas’ development. He has been moved to wing to simplify his defensive responsibilities and he is becoming dominant.
Possible top-6 NHL offensive forwards within 2 year in Charlotte not name Necas (likely), Gauthier (unlikely), Kuokkanen (50/50) include Saarela. I have been down on him because I didn’t know if his shot was NHL ready. Brandon insisted it was, and I heard Vellucci described as one of the hardest shots in the AHL. And Vellucci has confidence in him, so yes- Saarela. Of the other forwards in Charlotte, I see them as being either career AHLers (Brown, McKegg, maybe Potsy – although I would love to see Poturalski get another; he is a dynamic, offense-driven center at that level and plays responsibly in both ends) or possible depth (Geekie, Roy, Schilkey, Bishop, maybe Pu).
Think you are dead on about Necas. There are three reasons we won’t see him in Raleigh this year. Expansion draft, rookie contract, and defensive play. I haven’t watched any Charlotte games, so I’m not sure how Necas is progressing defensively, but I have a hard time believing he is NHL ready on defense yet. He was crazy bad early this year. Give him the year to figure it out. He may even be able to play center again.
I believe this whole 2nd line, 3rd line, 4th line stuff is very traditional, but too rigid to really explain the roles some players play on the team.
Jordan Staal is NOT an elite scoring centerman, but he is an elite defensive centerman and face off man. You can call the line he is on any number you wish, but their #1 job is to contain the other team’s top scoring line.
Svechnikov has done well offensively with Wallmark. He keeps getting better and has to potential to offer a secondary scoring line that concerns teams. Putting him with Aho would take that away as well as put him up against top defensive forwards and d pairings.
Would it be best to limit Williams minutes so he has more energy? Yes. Do the Canes have better options to play those minutes? No way. If you haven’t noticed Williams has been very good the past few weeks. When the Canes couldn’t score to save their lives he was the one that got going and led them out of their scoring blues. His smarts and craftiness has gotten and will get Svechnikov a lot more opportunities. Yes, he stinks in transition defense. Svech stinks at defense too, but they are the best we have.
The real big deal is Aho. When he is flying like he has been the past couple games he is one of the best in the NHL. I don’t see that wing or center makes a difference. The difference I have seen in Aho is home vs. on the road. He needs to find a way to get his motor going on the road. Maybe it’s the last change thing and facing better defenders? Not sure, but if the Canes are going to get better away from PNC Aho has to find his game on the road.
If you’ve been watching you should have noticed that Brind’Amour rolls with the lines that are having the best games other than the Staal and Aho lines. The other night the Rask line barely saw the ice in the third period. Bishop line was dominating possession, so they kept going out. Frankly, Rask is an issue. He has NHL experience and wisdom, but he just plain isn’t any good. Wallmark has gotten the call to match up against the top offensive lines in Staal’s absence. What else does that say about Rask?
I’m with Matt about Ferland. He plays an important role on Aho’s line. He actually buries the puck. How many years of watching Teravainen not shoot the puck in the slot do we need to see to know he isn’t going to do it. Someone on Aho’s line has to be able to shoot. His physical presence is also a big deal. Keeping players from roughing up Aho is a big deal as the season goes on. Hope he can get right quickly.
Matt, I think you nailed the assessments. Let’s hope Rask and McGinn get going soon; we know they’ve got more to give. We’ll need all cylinders firing to make a strong push for playoff position. The team definitely needs to look outside the organization for another top-six forward.
I forgot to mention Rask – I think you overslot him. He has been MIA since his return – I actually wonder if his hand hasn’t fully healed.
McGinn, on the other hand, still plays rugged but he is just not in a role where the opportunities to shoot and hit the pipes are forthcoming. I was certainly expecting much more from him this season in terms of goals/points but I also think it is how he is being played.
I agree Ferland is on the verge of a downgrade, Svech is definitely going to be promoted, maybe all the way to the top category (knock on wood).
Walmark is a category better than Matt gives him credit for, I think (perhaps a tad bit optimistically).
Rask is just not an NHL caliber player right now, whether it is injury or something else, he’s been a downaraded version of his last season’s self since returning, and nothing like the Rask who managed to dazzle for a big contract.
Wonder if the Canes should give Podorolski (or however you spell his name) a look at the center position. I doubt he has the goods to be a legit top 6 or top 9 NHL er but he deserves an audition, especially if there are no better options.
But it is clear that the Canes have too many bottom 6 responsible two-way players, no matter how we slice and dice it.
A duo of a playmaking center and a finisher would do wonders for this team, getting both is probably impossible but getting either in return for some of our D surplus is still worth pursuing I suppose.
Wonder if Darling to Chicago for one of their aging superstars with a pricy contract or Saad might be an option, they are in a rudd with their goalie situation.
I doubt CHI would trade anybody for Darling. There seems to be this thought that CHI has a romance with him and wants him back and that we can just offer him up in a trade. My question is why they would not be interested in taking him on now and with his contract particularly given how he has played here, and how poor they have played and being in rebuilding mode. Plus they have Forsberg who has gone 5-3 in the AHL with a 2.62 GAA and .917 S%. They will go with Ward/Forsberg this season.
Please! Please! Pretty please! Do not trade anybody for anybody. We do not need any more scorers. We have plenty.
Oh my! Have I committed heresy? You see, what everyone seems to think is that we can judge each player by his past performance. You know, statistical analytics and all. Well, there is another way. Roddy believes in a much more human way of evaluating a player’s performance as well as his potential. He also knows all about chemistry and synergy. Quantifying such things with statistical analysis isn’t possible. I agree with him.
In my not-very-humble opinion, we will need to replace Ferland soon, if his injury proves to be too dire. I vote for Gauthier. Bishop is proving to be a gem with his physical play. Fogele, Phil di, Ginner, and Martinook are playing into form. Each is a potential 20+ goal scorer.
In case you haven’t noticed, our scoring line is clicking. Our pk is doing very well. Our pp is starting to excel (how many goals did our pp score against the Stanley Cup champions?). Lines centered by Wallmark and Bishop are clicking and scoring. Rask is still shaking off the rust from his surgery and kitchen accident.
Calvin deHaan is meshing well with Faulk. Faulk is starting to trust that his partner will cover his six while he is scoring goals. More and more I see Faulk shooting. Pesce and Slavin? Poetry in motion. Dougie? He needs a partner he can trust. Someone like deHaan. Someone who will stay at home while Dougie does what he has proven to do so well. SCORE GOALS! That someone is definitely not Fleury. I believe that someone is not TVR. That someone is Caj.
Mac and Mrazek are not just adequate. They are good. Darling? Who knows? He has definitely earned the number 3 spot.
Earlier, I predicted that when we win the Cup again, there will be those who will say, “Yeah. We won the Cup, but….”
I hope I am wrong.
Rats! I forgot one very important player. Svetch. He certainly disappointed his champions. Everyone who criticized me for rooting for us to use our pick to select Tkatchuk rather than Svetchnikov, assured me that he was good to go as an elite scorer and power forward. Well, he wasn’t.
I have my doubts about his future as a power forward. But he is showing us that he will be an elite scorer and soon.
He is not as durable or as big and strong as we had hoped. Wilson nailed him to the ice from behind recently. To Svetch’s credit, he had taken up residence at the top of the crease, which is why Wilson hit him with a cheap shot. Also to his credit, he got up and continued playing.
But the league is onto Svetch. He is recognized as a dangerous player. They are going after him. After he scored against the Yotes recently, he got nailed and had to leave the ice for the locker room.
Remember McDavid’s first year? He was attacking the Flyer zone and had successfully split the defense. Both d men grabbed him from behind and pulled him down to the ice. They rode on top of him making sure that his shoulder hit the boards first as they all slid into them. McDavid suffered a broken clavicle. He was out of the lineup for months. That summer, the Oilers signed free agent Milan Lucic to a 7 year 42 million dollar contract. He wasn’t expected to score a lot of goals. He was expected to protect McDavid as well as other valuable assets in the Oiler arsenal.
We need to protect Svetch like we are protecting Aho and Turbo with Ferland.
Caj could do that job. Remember that when Ronnie Francis was in his prime as a player, his protector was Ulf Samuelsson (a defenseman). Ulf was not a good fighter. Not at all. But if you tried to hurt Ronnie, you got hurt. Badly.
Svetch has great potential as a key scorer. Yes. I believe he has Francis-like potential. See? I can admit when I am wrong.
He deserves protection. Let’s show that we learned a lesson from our experience with Skinny. To leave an elite scorer unprotected is just stupid. It is also unforgivable.
I shall offer up no but, if the Canes win the cup, that is official!
The Oilers are not very happy with their decision to sign Lucic, he is aging, slowing and brutally expensive. However if we can find a young and inexpensive option, preferably from within our own system that can do the job and, yes, I agree that option may be lurking on D down in Clt, I for one advocate we should give it a try.
I don’t honestly think the Blackhawks would take Darling of our hands, I’m saying they are the only ones who might possibly conceivably be silly enough to do it, and I realize that is a heck of a longshot but, heck, Edm traded Hall to the Devils for near nothing, similar with Eberle, the Canes traded .. well you know the rest of that sentence, maybe we can offer up a second round pick and Cliff Pu + Darling in return for Patrick Kane, I mean he’s lousy defensively.
If all you do is extrapolate the current scoring paces across the full season, then yes, Matt, I think you have it right. However, there are other trends worth noticing.
1/ Svetch has figured something out over the last 10 or so games. He has been quite dangerous and is now scoring, so he is likely to continue to trend upward into a Top-6 player by season’s end if not much sooner.
2/ Ferland has been injured so I don’t know why many are dumping on him. He’s been a big part of the offense and likely will continue to be if he returns healthy and to Aho’s line. He’s a UFA and is playing for a contract, whether here or somewhere else, so I’d be surprised if we saw a drop-off in effort once he returns. His production is going to depend on where he slots.
One interesting thing to note: it’s really hard to know who a play really is if most of his minutes is with an elite Center. Cassian is scoring in EDM with McDavid; Guentzel with Crosby; Lindholm with Monohan/Johnny Hockey, Eberle with Tavares: put that player on a different line and who knows what you get from them. The flip side is also true: maybe you could put a number of Canes on the Aho line and get Ferland-like production: McGinn, Svetch, Martinook, even Foegele.
3/ Staal got concussed in the SJO game. Maybe it’s a coincidence, but we started scoring the next game and have scored 4, 1, 4, 5, and 3 goals in his absence – that’s 3.4/game, more than acceptable. Maybe it’s more than a coincidence.
I love Staal and he eats minutes and is generally one tough hombre, but – and I say this with remorse and a degree of shame – I think I would trade him to PIT for Kessel. I think we would gain more with Kessel’s offense than we’d lose with Staal’s overall play. Plus, Kessel’s contract is a year shorter.
4/ We have a lot of the same type of player: the “responsible” player who plays two ways. We might benefit by having a few one dimensional players or two – like Hoffman, Neal, Terasenko, Carter, etc. – who have a clear role to just shoot the puck. (Skinner wasn’t this player, fyi, he was a one-man whirling dervy.
5/ JW has been very good lately and every team needs depth scoring. He’s more than that. He’s earning his “C” big time and this season could have easily turned into last season without him. That’s worth 20-points to me.
6/ Necas is going to make a difference when we see him with the confidence he’s gained in CLT. That may not be this year. I hope it is.
7/ We are going to make a trade using one of our RHD. Time is on our side if we don’t panic, especially if Pesce or Faulk continues to play well. We might get what the NYR got for Ryan Callahan – that would be my analog trade. This will open up room for Fox, who we can’t afford to lose.
All things considered, the fact that we’re 29th in scoring and only 2-pts from 3rd in the Metro is a huge victory. We can (and I think we will) go on a run at some point and make real noise. It hasn’t happened yet – unless you thing the first 5 games were that run – it’s coming.
d miller great points as always.
I am really focused on your point 2. I wasn’t intending to “dump” on Ferland. In fact, you make my argument for me best later in that same section. I think Aho showed the last half of last season he could be a 35-goal scorer. With a third all-around player the Aho/Teravainen line could get close to the Gaudreau/Monahan/Lindholm line (by the way as much as it likely pains all of us, Lindholm has elevated Monahan’s game and is not the passenger on that line).
When I stated that Ferland hadn’t produced an assist in the past 14 games I excluded the Toronto game because he only played a few shifts. My concern is that as much as Ferland brings, and I admit he brings two big things the Canes need in his shot and hitting, he is not the best linemate for Aho and Teravainen. As Matt points out Aho is the only current difference maker. As you point out, Svechnikov on that line might be multiplication by addition.
Ferland is an important player, but Aho and Svechnikov need to be the players the offense is built around.