Only a couple weeks ago one of the party lines about the Carolina Hurricanes was raving about the team’s depth at forward. But since then, the team has lost Justin Williams who was certain to occupy a top 9 slot and seemingly also Saku Maenalanen who at a minimum could have been a competent fourth-liner.
If you work through the current forward roster, the team now has only 11 forwards on one-way contracts. Even if you assume a spot for Martin Necas, the team is at 12 forwards. That leaves room for at least more and even more if the team encounters an injury.
So though a couple weeks ago it looked like things were decided, there is very much an open competition for the #13 slot and possibly even stealing Necas’ slot if he does not look ready in preseason games.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe takes a look at that competition but first offers a quick catch up on the past articles on the forward ranks.
Yesterday, we reopened The Coffee Shop with a set of polls on building out the forward lines around centers Sebastian Aho, Jordan Staal, Erik Haula and Lucas Wallmark. You can vote if you have not or see the results HERE.
Last week, I worked through three steps in building out forward lines:
Part 1 had player by player thoughts on each Canes forward.
Part 2 put the forwards into categories.
Part 3 took an early try at building out lines.
I mostly stand by my lines from part 3 except that I had Saku Maenalanen on the right side of Staal’s line. I would replace him with either Foegele or Kuokkanen, and if it ends up being Foegele moving up, then I like Kuokkanen back filling that slot.
So that leads into today’s topic which considers the battle for at least one forward spot at the bottom of the lineup.
Martin Necas
Most people seem to have Martin Necas as an automatic. He is arguably the top forward prospect in the system right now and had a strong second half in the AHL which could suggest that he is ready for the NHL. But at the same time, he is a player who had a seven-game NHL try out to start the 2018-19 season but did not look ready. Important to note is that though the learning curve on the defensive side of the puck was a factor, he was too often invisible offensively too which probably expedited his trip to the AHL. Another year older. stronger and wiser will obviously help. What might be more significant is an expected move to right wing (where he primarily played in Charlotte) where he can mostly pin his ears back and hound the puck on the forecheck and not be as encumbered with the defensive responsibilities of the center position. But at the end of the day, Necas needs to be a significantly better player than he was at this time last season to make a strong case for NHL ice time. He is still waiver-exempt, so if he does not look to be one of the 12 best forwards, he is not guaranteed a slot.
Odds he sticks at the NHL level are high. I would call it 80+ percent. But at the same time, I do not see Necas starting in the NHL as a foregone conclusion. He has to earn it.
The field
As noted above, even if Necas does stick there is still room for one more forward at least to fill the #13 slot if/when needed. Though the Hurricanes regularly went without healthy extras last season when they were not necessary. Especially with the team up against the salary cap, I would expect the same this season. But for fun, let’s assume there is a #13 slot or that something could open up because of an injury.
At a basic level, I sort the options into three categories. The first category includes proven players who have a decent amount of NHL experience. This group is safer and sounder but mostly without the upside of some of the young guns. I view that group as including Clark Bishop and Brian Gibbons. Bishop does not bring much offensively, but he is defensively sound and fits Brind’Amour’s system as a fast and aggressive forechecker. Bishop also has 20 games of NHL experience. Resume-wise, newcomer Brian Gibbons reminds me a bit of Greg McKegg as a veteran who has split time in the AHL and NHL with 169 games of NHL experience.
The second category includes players with potentially higher ceilings offensively and but minimal if any NHL experience. The group is led by Janne Kuokkanen and Julien Gauthier who could be ready for an NHL audition and also includes Morgan Geekie and Eetu Luostarinen. From this group, Kuokkanen and Gauthier are worth watching. Kuokkanen is the most mature and well-rounded player of the group, and I think could hold his own at the NHL level. Gauthier has been gradual in his development but is intriguing as a hulking power forward with agility, skating ability and a scoring touch.
The last group are players who are likely not roster contenders for the 2019-20 season and are therefore deep dark horses. This group includes Jacob Pritchard, Spencer Smallman, Steven Lorentz and Max McCormick. It would require a massive showing in preseason for one of these season to climb the depth chart up into the NHL.
Handicapping the field
If Brind’Amour needs a #13 who is not intended to play or a player to slot into the lineup and prefers safe and sound, then the most likely bets are Clark Bishop, Brian Gibbons or possibly Janne Kuokkanen.
To vault over this safe and steady group, a player like Julien Gauthier, Morgan Geekie or possibly Eetu Luostarinen would have to have a strong preseason and present like they could score at the NHL level.
The player I really like from this group is Kuokkanen. He is a bit of a forgotten player right now because he missed the second half of the 2018-19 with an injury. But I think he can match the veterans Bishop and Gibbons for hockey smarts and two-way play such that he also qualifies as steady and sound. But I think he could also offer a modest amount of scoring upside especially over Bishop.
Based on how Brind’Amour utilized players last year and made choices on call ups, his leaning at the bottom of the roster seems to be for safe and steady. As such, I think it takes a really strong training camp to convince him to go younger at forward to start the season.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Do you consider Martin Necas to be a sure thing? If not, what must he do in training to keep the spot that seems to be his to lose?
2) Of the other players available who do you like to fill an injury opening or the #13 slot?
Go Canes!
1. Necas will most likely make it through the season with the team. With the addition of Haula and both Bishop/Wallmark being NHL tested centers at this point playing on the wing gives him the freedom to learn at the NHL level.
2. As it looks like a trade is imminent, I don’t see there being salary cap issues, but the roster is still too packed with goalies and defensemen to think they’ll carry a 13th. At least until we lose a few people via trade or waiver…
That said I’d love to see Gautier and Kuok spend some time with the Canes this season. I’m especially interested in seeing what Necas and Gautier could do on the PP2 after showing some chemistry in Charlotte.
I see Kuokkanen having a tough time making the team if the role is that of a fourth liner. I do not think he would excel in that role, and the Canes still think enough of him that they would rather see him playing in the AHL than sitting in the pressbox in the NHL. I do see Kuakkanen getting a shot as an injury callup at some point this season.
We still haven’t replaced Ferland. We do have some reasonable facsimiles. One should be written in as #13.
Julian Gauthier. He has established himself as a rough and tumble guy who draws hostile attention to himself from the enemy. He can also score. His size is right. He is strong and good on his skates. I know. I know. The effete snobs among us have a million statistical reasons for keeping him out of the lineup. But the longer he remains out of the lineup, the more openings due to injury we will have among our tiny soft scorers. Remember gang, I am talking about the REAL NHL, not “today’s NHL” that I hear so much about.
Max McCormick. Not as big. Not as accomplished as a scorer as Julian, but Max can mix it up with the big dogs. We need someone to run with the big dogs while our little guys as well as our soft and gritless not so little guys hide under the porch.
And, if need be, we can sign Cedrick Lacroix to a contract with the Canes. Then Roddy can cry havoc and loose our dog of war.
Funny, our little softy boiz stayed in the lineup pretty consistently last year while Ferland stayed hurt and consequently invisible down the stretch. You do wanna see some guys that play with an edge and fire though, and I don’t worry about that too much on an RBA team. Fleury’s been playing real heavy in training camp, and that’s just what the doctor ordered for his game.
1. Necas is about as close to a sure thing as you can make. He is significantly improved from last year – his trajectory in CLT once he got moved to wing was excellent. He is willing to play wing and it looks like he has gotten bigger over the summer. He is going to be an excellent playmaking wing. And put him in on the PP – he displayed a wicked shot from the dot in Charlotte last year.
2. I really see RBA relying on his “grit and grind” players for call-up. I expect to see Bishop and Gibbons get the most ice time. Kuokkanen comes up only if there is a top-9 injury.
Time is running out on Gauthier – as much as he did improve last year. I don’t see a fit for him on this squad – he is going to have to be really impressive to hold onto a spot coming out of training camp. This may be a year for a callup – particularly if he maintains his trajectory from last year.
Geekie is a year out, I think, although his play in CLT this year may warrant a callup.
Too many stars are in alignment. The open spot on offense, the surplus on defense, the need to get cap complaint, and the rumor mill going full time. (Remember the Anaheim deal has been reported as finished by highly reputable reporters, only needing Faulk’s ok to seal the deal.) I’m standing pat on my believing another deal, defense for offense, is certain before camp is over. Conveniently, I can also give myself the luxury of deferring on line combos, avoiding the embarrassment of showing how little I understand of that process.
Based on size and strength, Gauthier fits the bill. However, his reputation doesn’t include throwing his weight around for maximum effect. He can chose to change that, I hope he does. I am all for the final offensive addition to play the same role as Ferland did last season. His presence not only kept the other teams “tough guy” honest, but changed the way other teams were able to match up against us. Overall changing match ups helped out skilled players at least as much as the nuclear deterrence factor.
Gauthier is not a physical player. He uses his body to get near the crease, finishes his checks, is hard to move out of position but he does not skate around looking for someone to hit, a la Ferland, nor does he drop the gloves.
That is a very different style of game for him. He may find that his path to the NHL will be easier if he adopts that style but he only recently learned how to keep moving his skates in order to be effective. And effective he became last season – but he is a long way from Ferland physical wrecking ball.
I still worry about our toughness. Ferland was important as we always had a deterrent for teams who wished to push us around. Time will tell but I do have concerns about that. With Saku out of the picture we are light in that regard. Necas still needs to earn his spot but I also see him as a high probability to make the team this year. My guess for 13 is Kuokkanen, sound defensively with upside scoring. For call up I think it depends on who is lost. We have scorers and defensive guys. It could be any mentioned. Training camp will go a long way for who gets anointed.
This can obviously change if Faulk is moved. There would probably a top 9 forward coming back which would scramble everything discussed here. Our defense would take a hit if we loose Faulk. Yah, we have a lot of D but the replacements are not close to Faulks level. No idea how things will play out.
PTO extended to a defenseman https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2019/09/fredrik-claesson-to-attend-carolina-training-camp.html
Is Brian Boyle a realistic option for the Canes?
1. I think Necas makes the team and stays
2. probably bishop, but I would like to see goat get a chance… that may or may not help the team toughness, but he is a big one.
This is why I don’t want to trade Faulk now… especially for a forward. We need to see what we have in these guys, Goat, Kouk, even Geki and Lou (sorry, I can’t spell). I would rather give these guys a try than get another top 9 forward… that would cause cap issues in the future.
I read in CC where Sarah Civ said that Faulk was happy here, didn’t ask to be traded…. I read it as he doesn’t want to be traded (probably wishful thinking)… That made me feel better.
Just really excited for the season…
And thanks to all of you for the excellent reads during the summer!
1) Necas definitely makes this year. Not because of a guarantee, but because he will earn it.
Last year he didn’t do enough work in the off season and everybody knew it. He was talented but had to be taught an important lesson. This year he is ready.
His penalty was big. Since he played less than 10 games in the bigs, his ELC will slide a year. He has an additional year to RFA now,
This year he is ready to do things the Rod Brind’Amour way.
2) I don’t think they will have 13F this year, and the call-up will depend on what they need.
While it is easy to upslot roster players and fill in the 4th line, RBA May surprise us here. It is possible that whoever is called up – if early in the season – is the one who made the most progress in the off-season and will slot in at a natural position for them. Any of Kuokkonen, Bishop, Goat, Geekie, and maybe others could get the call in a given situation.
While the highly anticipated Faulk for Kase deal has fallen out of view, some aftermath is occurring. https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2019/09/pacific-notes-kase-mcdavid-virtanen-juolevi-simek.html Note: I could not find the comments attributed to Elliotte Friedman, linking the leak of Kase’s name to a Canes executive.
Correction: It was Elliott Teaford, not Elliotte Friedman who linked Tom Dundon to the leak of Kase’s name. Here is the original article. https://www.ocregister.com/2019/09/14/ducks-gm-bob-murray-rips-ondrej-kase-trade-rumors/?utm_campaign=socialflow&utm_content=tw-ocregister&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com I’ll be curious to see if TD responds to the Ducks GM on his statements.