Let me first start by putting forward a few disclaimers since the current state of Hurricanes hockey has the potential to have this read like a tirade.
First, as far as Bill Peters and Ron Francis go, I am not ready to chuck either under the bus. Francis is doing exactly what he said he would do from day 1, and even if the schedule continues to push out, he deserves credit for consistency and steadfastness. Though I do question whether he will be able to break from methodical and conservative when he needs to, I am not going down that road tonight. My rating on Peters right now is more mixed. At best, his team is playing to their talent level, but I do not think it is impossible that this team could be capable of much more. That said, at a minimum I think Peters deserves this year to show what he can do.
Second, I am not suggesting that each and every one of the decisions detailed below was wrong. Decision-making for managing an NHL team is an imperfect process even for those who do it well, so picking out some handful of decisions that did not turn out well and using it as evidence that the coach or general manager are not competent is just not accurate.
Finally, I honestly am not writing this as part of an angry tirade. Rather, I had a busy day on Monday and unfortunately did not have time to write Tuesday’s Daily Cup of Joe before the 10pm game, so that has me rambling away at nearly 2am. With the team’s recent struggles, what it could do better has been front and center, so it is the easiest to write stream of consciousness way late at the end of a long day.
Lawyer volume disclaimers aside, here is a short list of moves that I thing one could second guess right now…
1) The captaincy
First, I do not see anything negative with the team’s leadership right now except that it is not leading the team to enough wins. As I said on Twitter a few days back, the deeper we get into the 2017-18 season, the more I think the team would have been better off with Justin Williams as its captain. I just think as a team that has not won in forever and therefore with 10-11 players who literally never experienced it at the NHL level that the team needs a bigger shift in mindset than can easily be accomplished with a step-wise continuation from last year.
2) Failure to build a deeper coaching bench over the summer
At the front part of the summer, I predicted that the Hurricanes would make a meaningful coaching addition (not counting the goalie coach change) over the summer. My reasoning was threefold. First, as a fairly new head coach who had yet to coach a team that was legitimately pushing for the playoffs, I thought a sounding board and second set of eyes could benefit Bill Peters. Second, it would be a way to add more expertise for special teams or anything else that could use more attention. Third and significantly, the cost is so incredibly small compared to player costs. A “consultant” or “specialist” with significant NHL experience would probably cost $250,000 or less. I figured the summer would be perfect timing for Francis to push this change at a time when a number of things are in flux anyway and it would not be a big deal.
3) Not giving Sebastian Aho at least a trial at center
Peters is on record from shortly after last season as preferring Aho on the wing at least short-term, but I think that was also said at a time when the hope was to add a playmaking center to the mix. That did not materialize over the summer which left the team entering the 2017-18 season with Derek Ryan slated to be the purest version of an offensive center in the lineup. My opinion is that the lack of pure playmaking at the center position is the single biggest thing holding the team back offensively right now. Both 5-on-5 and on the power play, the Hurricanes lack the kind of player who could make sure that players like Teuvo Teravainen get at least a handful of decent scoring chances every game. I get the possibility that Aho just might not be ready, but hockey is very much a young man’s game. Teenagers very regularly rise up and lead teams. And I think it is a misconception that truly great players have to develop before they can step into a certain role. No doubt, good young players improve, but they also often have an uncanny knack for being good enough or better for key roles even before their game rounds out. At a more simple risk/reward level, I just think the potential risk or downside of giving Aho a short run of games at the center position is incredibly small compared to the potential upside.
4) Marcus Kruger and the fourth line
First, let me start by saying that I think the fourth line has been decent given its targeted role. So the issue is not so much Marcus Kruger and the fourth line’s level play. Rather, the thing I second guess heavily right now is if the team went the wrong direction trying to add players to build another checking line. For as much as everyone likes to rave about how good Marcus Kruger is defensively (and I am not debating that), he is as much of a non-factor offensively as Jay McClement was. Right now, Kruger is on target for no goals and 11 assists which is actually a small step down from McClement’s five goals and three assists in 65 games before he was traded last year. In addition, Kruger’s lack of offensive ability like McClement’s tends to be a drag on the entire line. And to add insult to injury, at least in 2016-17, all three of the Hurricanes fourth-liners played key roles on the penalty kill that was among the top of the league. Building a fourth line aimed purely at scoring does not work in the NHL. A line of a team’s 10-12th best players that is not defensively sound will get eaten alive by top 6 forwards on other teams. That is why it makes some sense that Peters and/or Francis leaned pure defense for the fourth line. But with Lucas Wallmark playing a decent two-way game somewhat similar to Victor Rask but potentially having a higher ceiling offensively, I have to wonder if Peters/Francis could have had their cake and ate it to building a pretty good defensive fourth line but also one that could provide decent depth scoring.
5) Clinging to Justin Faulk
First, it is important to note that I have always voted no to trading Justin Faulk. While I was actually quite critical of his defensive play during the 2016-17, I put significant value in his offensive ability. In addition, I did not think the emerging defenseman had enough experience to part ways with Faulk. Finally, his offensive production was not something to take lightly especially for a team that needed to find more scoring. But now 30 games into the 2017-18 season, I just do not think Faulk is good enough defensively right now. I view his game as that of a good offense-leaning #5 defenseman who also fits nicely on the power play. Interestingly, even that has not really worked out as Faulk has been slow out the gate offensively with only one goal and six assists through 30 games which projects toward a meager 20-ish point pace.
Not too long ago, I threw out the idea of trading Justin Faulk for a high-end center/offensive catalyst, and then trading Victor Rask plus modest futures to add a steady but unspectacular #4 defenseman to replace Faulk. I have no idea what the early December trade market looks like but chain reaction moves like this are difficult to pull off.
What say you Caniacs?
1) What are your thoughts on the five second guessing possibilities detailed above?
2) Do you have any that you would add to the list?
Go Canes!
When the franchise announced the choice for captain(s), I told friends that this decision will be revisited throughout the season if the Canes do not perform well. Here we are… I thought it was an odd choice then and still do. All along I believed Williams was the man, but what do I know.
Peters is a good coach and Francis provides steady leadership in the front office. At this point, I would have hoped things would’ve been shaken up a bit on the team — send guys down to Charlotte or make a trade. Nothing crazy, but send a definitive message to the boys.
I get the feel that the team will find a groove and improve play. Although young, we have some talent on the ice. At this point, we once again find ourselves in a big hole and the playoff line is miles away.
Looking ahead, I am curious what impact the new ownership will have. Not understanding the finer points of the deal and exactly when the baton is passed, I do not know whether it is possible to see some changes in this season or if this truly will not begin to occur until the summer. We have been a budget team for years — a few years it paid off through shrewd trades and acquisitions, but in others we found ourselves in quicksand. Money needs to be spent/invested to ensure we have the right talent on the ice to develop a winning formula and subsequently filling seats in the PNC.
Go Canes!
1. I would have gone with Willimans, or Skinner. If they had said no, I would have gone with a single “C”, probably Staal
2. Looking back ,we should have at least hired a PP coach to work with Rod.
3. I agree. We have multiple centers playing wing. we should have given them a try out.
4. What the 4th line really needs is a Viktor Stalberg. 20pts from the 4th line is nothing to sneeze at.
5. At this point, Scott Darling needs a sports psychologist, to get over the lapses that turn into low danger non-saves.
1. A) I’ve been fairly vocal and ranty about the captains situation since it was announced and have accepted it as something I have to live with.
B) I think I missed that article but I think that would have been a smart idea. I’d like the team to move away from RB before BP if coaches are getting fired or moved around.
C) I’d like to see Aho at center. In my head I always saw our first line down the road as Skinner Aho and Gauthier(well see how that goes) I know Skinner generally performs fine without elite linemates but it’d be interesting to see him centered by someone worth passing the puck to.
D) fourth line probably is what it is for this season. Hard to judge when we kind of expected more production from the other 3 lines.
E) I’ve proposed those types of trades a few times. Would have likely been easier before Faulk played his value into the ground. Rask may actually be the more valuable piece if you tried to pair them at this point in the season.
2. I may have added a lack of call ups but I’m conflicted on if I think young blood will energize the roster or if the young guys will be tainted by the seemingly apathetic culture the teams currently struggling with.
Written from a bumpy work truck so I hope this all makes sense. Go Canes!
1. The captaincy. I was shocked by the deal of co-captaincy as it came out. The idea itself is meh but not giving a letter to JW was the major astonishment and a head scratcher. I then later heard an interview in WRAL where the reporter said to JW like “many ppl excpected the captain to be you” and Williams goes something like he’d be lying to say he hadn’t thought that way as well..then he softened it by saying something that “everyone is a leader in the room in his own way/contribution”. I have come up with two head explanations why the choosing of the captain went as it went. First of them is that the staff really believed that less is needed and the Canes have improved so much for the new season that no need to piss off anyone “old” in the room by giving a C to a newcomer. Or to take the responsibility generally to underline the leadership issue. Kinda makes me smile as I think this is a very Swedish thing to do. In Sweden companies are very group-spirited in the leadership even. The second reason I believe is that it can be hard to Rod and Ron to have Williams in a new role because the guy used to be a teammate, not a subordinate. Maybe they thought they cannot favor a friend. Well. The way the things are now arouse some secondhand embarrasment but the coaching staff needs to swallow their pride and just to give a C to the right Justin if they want to save the season. It is imperative that the Canes playing mood is brought up. Otherwise it is gonna be suffocating to play the 53 remainig games. Also many players are in the process of development so the season has to be utilized even tho Canes wouldn’t make it to the playoffs. Losing the spirit is awful. The fixation of captaincy does not cost any dollars.
2. I agree with Matt on this. Does the team, btw, have a good nutritionist? Doctors aren’t best educated in nutrition; docs heal sicknesses. I know there is someone in the staff who has a word on nutrition things but I have forgotten who. It wouldn’t harm to get more outside help on the matter anyways imo. Nutrition and sleep more or less are underrated in NHL and sometimes I think NHL is more of a show business than a pro sport business. Would Usain Bolt fly the night he is supposed to have a track meet later in the same day. No, he wouldn’t or let’s say didn’t as he quitted competing. If he somehow managed to fly, tho, did he eat tacos or pizza in the plane the same day he knew he was competing? I suppose no. I expect not to. I know Rio Olympic village had a McDonalds and I saw pics of athletes with huge portions but those athletes said they are feastig bc the game is over for them. Sorry going a bit off topic here but I think a good nutrition specialist could really have an impact. Schedules can’t be fixed but food can. The Canes ordered some team food from In and Out Burger now in Cali told me Canes cast. I know it is a cultural thing to love burgers in the US but afaik weightlifters and boxers for instance are way more pros in what they eat. And of course Jonathan Toews, lol. Check this out https://www.instagram.com/p/BIutUEVAP-W/?hl=en&taken-by=jonathantoews
3. Aho moving to center. I have flagged for this for long. The only thing that puzzles me and is new in my thinking is that I am not all sure if he can handle the pressure the way I earlier thought he would always do. It is not about the center thing, it is about how he generally manages when he feels he has the responsibility to carry the team. Saw that in last spring’s world champs. Team Finland was having a terrible stretch and Aho felt some resposibility over it like he always does and he looked uneasy. Another example we saw this fall when he didn’t score. He handled it well in interviews but on the ice he whiffed way too many times and the thing kept growing on him in a negative way. Like I wrote yesterday in my intro on this blog Aho has a ceiling of 100 points (maybe not as a center, tho) but he needs to grow mentally and I am very certain he will. It does not do harm to the team if Peters gambles on the center thing and moves Aho to center asap. It is some gambling, yes, but pros are more than cons like Matt wrote.
4 and 5. I am not gonna leave comments on these bc I already wrote a lot 🙂
I am most perplexed by the captaincy and coaching decisions over the summer.
* We were all sure JW was brought in to provide true leadership. For maximum effectiveness, he should have been maid captain, I thought it was a done deal.
* We did not bring on additional coaching or consulting, well put Matt.
And the fact we hen’t tried a shake up despite the fact the team is quicly regressing to (or below) its trajectory of the last 8 years.
We can’t wait with the shake ups until it is too late. I think we should bring up players that feel they are getting a legitimate chance to make a difference, not to showcase their talent in an otherwise meaningless game (when the team Is out of contension).
I also did find the goalie moves a little odd, well, not super odd, but again we brought in a relatively inexperienced but promising netminder and signed him to a multi-year deal before he had played a single game for us. This is Lack v2.0 essentially (well with Lack we didn’t have to rush so much to get the contract signed). I understand the move, but still, we are repeating past decisions that turned out to be mistakes. That being said, I still think Darling can put it together, though I thin not soon enough to save this season.
This may not be an unpopular opinion but I kinda hope we tank at this point.
Underperforming during the last year of the rebuild and securing one more potentially elite forward would do wonders for this team 5 years down the road and beyond.
I think I prefer that to making any substantial moves in a bid to try and potentially fail to make the playoffs at this point in the season.
This may come off more negative than I intend it to. I’m in no way dissatisfied with the direction the teams going (the results this season, yes) but I think the playoffs may be unrealistic this season.
You are not alone. Playoffs aren’t realistic so tanking is the best option. Tanking plus also the center experiment with Aho. I still think the captaincy has to be resolved and the playing spirit brought up even tho no playoffs. Winnipeg Jets played really well last spring after they knew it isn’t gonna be playoffs. They said in interviews they owe it to the fans not to quit playing + that they are professionals. There is also always some individual reasons to play well for they said.
I noticed I wasn’t very clear on this. Tanking like being the last or the second last in the league to ensure a high pick in the draft is hard to go through. It is difficult to quit totally when there are 53 games left. Plus quitting like that is that the players pay not so much attention: injury risk increases. Also I am certain that players like Aho know they need points individually to catch a good RFA deal. So it is easier to say than to do this tanking if it means the main focus becomes nr 1 draft pick. I used the word tanking but I meant to increase the odds in the draft but not at any expense. Def not by quitting totally.
Professional players do not tank.
Organizations that “tank” for future rewards lose the respect of th current players.
Also, see Buffalo for how successful tanking is.
See Pittsburgh, LA and Chicago for how successful tanking can be, especially Pittsburgh and Chicago.
They wouldn’t have had their success without their top 3 picks turning into the superstars they were predicted to be. They wouldn’t have drafted those superstars if they hadn’t finished last.
Also see Leafs for what I honestly hope (if the canes don’t make it) will be the next hockey superpower (poor Canada, they need to bring the cup back).
Organizations gain respect of fans and players alike if they are successful (make the playoffs, win the cup), I think an organization that successfully tanks and then wins the cup 3 years later will have more respect than the never-quit-organization that hasn’t been to the playoffs in a decade.
Of course tanking is no guarantee of success either. See the Oilers.
Interesting point by dogbutler on Stalberg who was a beast on our PK previously as the point in the neutral zone – how many times did he reverse the direction of the puck and have a breakaway chance for a SHG? Interestingly enough he did not find a place in the NHL this season and is now playing in the Swiss league.
I am withholding comment right now as I balance frustration with the season with the high quality of play our forwards have shown – multiple Grade A chances from Aho, Kruger, Lindy with open nets all missed or whiffed on. The score would have been entirely different even with “meh” goaltending and some defensive whoopsies.
I think, by default, many of you are giving GMRF (Ronnie) a BIG PASS… HE IS THE ARCHITECT of this amalgamation of players (not really a cohesive TEAM)…
Secondly, he has sat on his hands and watched them under-performing, with little correction of this rudder-less ship (make that DINGHY).
Peters has to work with what he has…and even then, he’s been less than effective, eh?
Rod could have (DID) play/ perform better than his power-less play??
Finally…would someone out there show me the EVIDENCE that RF HAS A MINISCULE BUDGET, allegedly preventing him from spending money on REAL GOOD PLAYERS? That EXCUSE has gotten VERY OLD…!!
Many valid points in these posts. I agree with almost all of them. Good observations from my fellow Caniacs.
Just to touch on a couple of major issues, I believe BP should finally give Aho a shot at center. The way he juggles lines is nauseating & they’re still losing consistently so what would it hurt now ? Aho & Staal as your top 2 centers changes the strength down the middle and gives you new options. Rask or Ryan can play 3 & Ryan would be a great 4th line center who would give you more threat to score & responsibly defensively or he could play the wing on 3rd or 4th to give you options for faceoffs & scoring. Maybe since Staal, Skinner, Williams played great one game & then BP switched the lines of course, they could be put back together for a solid line with much experience in all situations.
Skinner-Staal-Williams
TT-Aho-Lindholm
McGinn-Rask/Ryan-Rask/Ryan
I think this gives us 2 dangerous scoring lines. But I’m sure it won’t happen. Why would BP try every line combination possible but this one ?
Just a thought!!
As far as the “C” goes, I was perplexed at the decision to go with two. This isn’t a trendsetting event guys, it’s a hockey team that needs a true leader like all the other teams with a designated captain. It’s ok to have multiple leaders, that’s what the “A”‘s are for. But make a frickin decision on should be THE leader not hand out participation awards so no one gets their feelings hurt. My remedy to fix this & boost the team is to trade Faulk since he is not giving you what you are paying for & get an offensive force on the team for once, making Staal the one captain & give Williams the “A” that he deserves. There!! Two problems fixed with one trade. Hopefully!
If we haven’t turn the corner to consistent winning by Jan then it may be time for BP to go. I like him but somehow I don’t think he has the room anymore & the players are just going through the motions. Get someone in here that will show emotion & hold players accountable in many ways. Light a fire under them before it is another wasted season, Please.
I’ve been a season ticket holder for 20 years & I love my Canes but one can only take so much. I’ve been patient through the transitions but it is time to win however it must be achieved.
I love RF & wish him nothing but success but I think he has had his hands tied with PK & the budget. I expect TD to let RF do what it takes to win soon. Here’s to the change coming.(I Hope !!) I hope it will be a new winning era for the Canes !!
Taking a quick break to comment (spares me from shoveling what appears to be 8 inches of snow here in NH).
Anyway, agree with all second guesses and will add one more. GMRF’s lack of making a hockey trade. One cannot speculate if he had any offers, but if he didn’t then that just means he was riding too much hope on the current roster. In my opinion, time to trade both captains (Staal and Faulk). Likewise anyone older than 26 should be on the trade block as well. This team needs more snipers and net front presence…which are different skill sets other than our over-abundance of puck possession monsters.
1) the captaincy is the most bizarre decision. I won’t beat a dead horse, it should be JW.
The second, third, and fifth items I agree with. However having a good fourth line was a big deal exiting last season, with one caveat…
2) Warren Foegele has the hot hand in CLT now. He is nearing team lead in goals and points with ~ 4 shorties, and is an excellent penalty killer. I say give him a try on the 4th line / PK and see if we can add some scoring punch there.
When Wallmark recovers and gets hot again give him a shot too.
A lot of valid ideas on this thread. I would like to synthesize many of them.
Perhaps the Canes should combine the idea of shaking things up and positioning themselves for a difference-making pick in the 2018 draft. So here goes.
Edmonton may not have given up on their season–the playoff positioning in the West is not as brutal as in the East. The Oilers are short on RHD. The Canes should offer Faulk for Edomonton’s 2018 1st and maybe one of their D prospects like Ethan Bear. Then bring up McKeown to give him some NHL experience.
Try something similar with Rask (or perhaps Ryan, though his being a UFA next year probably limits his trade value). Seek another 2018 first from a team that is in contention and needs a capable center (Rask’s play the last 5 games should have his stock back up slightly). Bring up Wallmark to give him some NHL experience.
If the idea of being fully committed to next year sounds good to you, then near the trade deadline there may be a deal for TVR. He should bring at least a 2nd rounder in 2018. This would allow Slavin to play some on the right side and prepare the way for Bean in 18-19.
Now these moves (or similar ones) do three things:
1) With two or three call-ups from the AHL, the Canes either fall in the standings without tanking or the new players infuse energy and a late surge. If the Canes fall far enough to get into the top 4 in the draft, the opportunity to land an elite prospect is likely. If the Canes don’t drop but don’t make the playoffs, then the extra picks could be used to move up into the top 4. My ideal would be to draft Zadina or Wahlstrom. From what I read, the former should be NHL ready next season, the latter might be ready or could need to spend a year at Harvard before being ready to make the jump.
2) Open spots for a couple players who would benefit from NHL ice time (I mentioned Wallmark and McKeown, but it could be Saarela/Zykov/Foegele and Carrick). Giving them an extended tryout this year will give RF a sense of which UFAs to aggressively pursue.
3) Moving Faulk and Rask would free up some salary space to aggressively pursue JVR or Marchessault (Tavares will either be re-signed or on everybody’s radar no matter what the Canes do related to trades).
All these moves would require willing partners, so it is just speculation. Still, if the Canes are going to commit to next season, then something like this would be the way that makes the most sense.
On the other points being addressed:
Aho is going to be the Canes’ 1C–might as well start the process.
I would love to see a fourth line of Foegele/Wallmark/Roy at some point in the next year or two. It would be sound at checking, provide talent for the PK, and most importantly would be able to score a reasonable number of goals.
Thanks for this post and all the comments. Even my optimism was waning after last night. But thinking about the prospects and (hopefully) the ability to increase salary to bring in a top-flight free agent has me feeling good about being a Caniac.
CT – I knew you had some creative trades within you!!!
Edmonton is a sleeping giant and they may just want to make a deal. I’d be apt to send Faulk, Ryan and our 2018 3rd round pick to Edmonton for a return of Puljujärvi, Strome and Fayne.
For Edmonton, that would bolster their defense and replace Strome with Ryan. For us, that would bring together 2/3rds of that dynamite junior Finnish line (obviously minus Laine). We can then eat the rest of Fayne’s salary (prorated $2.6m in the minors) and Strome (prorated $2.5m) which helps Edmonton absorb Faulk’s salary at least for this year while not having to extend Strome or Puljujärvi (Edmonton won’t be able to pay everyone after next year).