The past week or so of Daily Cup of Joe has stepped through the list of seven Canes players scheduled to become unrestricted free agents this off-season and considered individually whether each should be re-signed or replaced and under what terms contractually.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe offers a set of random thoughts on that same topic.
The starting point for all of these decisions is recognizing that the Hurricanes need to make moves to improve this off-season but will be somewhat limited budget-wise in doing so. The starting is also (in my opinion) that the team needs to bet on the current core for the most part, so aside from hopefully making gains from young players just continuing to grow, the transaction-driven improvements will need to come from lesser-cost players who mostly fit into the middle or bottom of the lineup.
With that starting point, here are some thoughts that impact my keep or replace decisions for the list of unrestricted free agents.
Dougie Hamilton
With Dougie Hamilton the burning question is what are you going to do to improve or even break even if you let him go? That is a tough question. The Hurricanes do not have the extra top 4-capable depth that the team had a few years ago, so letting Hamilton go requires back filling his slot with at least one other top 4 defenseman. With a thin market for such players in free agency this year, that is a challenging proposition. Don Waddell has been very adept at adding top 4 defensemen via trade. Hamilton himself arrived that way. The team was also able to add Joel Edmundson in the Justin Faulk trade. And most recently the team added Brady Skjei at the 2020 trade deadline. So part of deciding whether or not to pay a small ransom to re-sign Hamilton is understanding what the options/costs are to replace him. Letting Hamilton go and then mostly trying to go with the current group plus another depth defensemen or two is a non-starter for me. I thought the team’s blue line defense took a modest step back in 2020-21, and I do not see any of the players below the top 4 as being capable of stepping into a top 4 role on an every game basis. As such, the decision on what to do with Dougie Hamilton is very much dependent on what the other options are.
The results from this situation are the single biggest decision/move that the team will make this summer.
The second goalie
I think the second goalie slot is also critical and potentially tricky. Nedeljkovic’s strong play is obviously a positive but could complicate the goalie situation in a couple ways. First, he went from being like to slot as a low-experience backup with a salary south of $1.5 million to being a player who with arbitration rights could get paid closer to a true #1 salary. With the Hurricanes tighter on salary cap budget, it could be challenging to shoe horn another 1A/1B goalie contract into that equation. Further, Nedeljkovic’s rising could have the effect of pushing Petr Mrazek out if he prefers less competition for starts and thinks he can get it elsewhere. From there, it could become tricky. There are a number of #1 or #1A/1B netminders available, but especially if Nedeljkovic’s salary creeps up, it is not clear any of them will fit the budget. So the challenge for Don Waddell is filling the second goalie slot with a player who could potentially be a #1 if needed but doing so at something closer to a #2 price.
The fabric of the team
Changeover of players during the off-season is inevitable for any NHL team, so some number of players coming and going is an every year event. But with Brind’Amour’s coaching style that leans heavily on building a group, is who/how many are let go something to watch more closely? The players who could depart are an interesting set this summer. Dougie Hamilton has been an integral part of building a fun, likeable group and has been a key component on the blue line. Jordan Martinook is a fan and locker room favorite wearing a letter as an every man’s hero. And if you had to name a player most like Martinook, Brock McGinn would be a good choice. Petr Mrazek was also front and center both on the ice and as part of the new attitude as the team surged up into the playoffs. If one looks at each player as a a separate, mutually exclusive decision, is it possible that the team let’s go too much of the fabric of the team and in the process diminishes the ‘we are in this together’ element that I think has been core to the success?
Trying to free up some budget
Per where I started, the aim is to find a way to get better. In general, that means spending some money. If the team finds a way to keep Hamilton, that plus the new Svechnikov and Nedeljkovic contracts will eat up a bunch of any possible budget to make upgrades. It is one thing to say that the team needs to add a player or two from outside to improve. But it is another thing to accomplish that if the team is right up against the salary cap. Not signing Hamilton could definitely free up some budget, but remember that he would need to be replaced by a top 4 defenseman which would minimize any savings.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Do you think it is possible to part ways with Dougie Hamilton and replace him without significantly downgrading both top-end quality and also depth? If so, are you counting on Waddell making another blue line trade…or?
2) Do you agree with my assessment that the second goalie slot is critical? Or do you Nedeljkovic is ready to be an old school #1 such that the backup slot is less important?
3) What, if anything, do you make of my concern about possibly damaging the core/fabric of the team if too many players who have been at the center of the turnaround depart at the same time?
4) As you think about the free agent decisions to be made, do you have any other bigger picture things that you think should be considered as part of that process?
Go Canes!
1. Dougie is important to this team, very much so. Unless we can go and get Seth Jones or similar, I think we need to try and resign him (bad marks to management for trading away so much defensive depth, we have almost nothing left). On that note, will TD be able to either buy out Gardner or trade him for a similar reclamation project contract at forward (better to buy out). Terasenko wants to be traded, would Gardner + a first round pick + another player get it done? (doubt it, but might be worth a try).
2. Not sure about goalie. I think Ned + Reimer might get it done if you want to bet on familiarity and save dollar, but it’s a risky bet. Mrazek + Ned is a pricy one. Goaltending was generally more than adequate for the Canes though both goalies let in some whoopsies in the playoffs.
3. This core has almost got it done, but not quite got it done. You need the magic mix of skills and characters, not all workmen like, not all high end. The Canes had magic chemistry in the 2019 playoff adventure. This season I don’t feel like it was as strong, especially in the playoffs.
There are a lot of articles questioning the whole idea of leadership and experience winning the playoffs, e.g. the Leafs.
4. Not sure, curious about the list of buy outs, maybe one of those could fit the Canes needs, either as “D or forward.
1. I think Hamilton walks because we won’t pay him the dollars for the term he wants – and I don’t fault him for that. This is his big payday. So he as to be replaced – we really pooched the pup when it came to defensive depth the past year or so, and Bean faded rather than stepped up. I don’t think we need a Norris Trophy contender, but we need a solid D-man who can advance the puck and get it on net and play the point on the PP – someone we really don’t have right now (unless Gardiner turns it around).
Waddell has been iffy on some of his trades – he has to pull something off; maybe a 3-way with SEA??? That’s a dynamic that changes things.
2. I never responded to your post yesterday on Ned – but when I said Binnington was a comp, i didn’t mean an equal but someone you could reasonably measure Ned against to get an idea of what what Ned could/should be looking for.
That said, i am with Breezy – and I think I mentioned this not long ago – Reimer would be a good fit and comfortable in the 1B role. If not Reimer, “Bring back Mac”??? But you are either going to get an aging player happy for the slot – or someone up and coming to challenge Ned for TOI, or who may fall flat on his butt leaving us with no viable #2. If D depth is thin, then NHL-ready goaltending depth is a razor thin. We got nobody else right now.
3. It’s a good, hard-working core – but there are too many lunch-pail players, and those guys are starting to eat up salary and cap. Plus we have too many of them. Does RBA want more McGinn- and Foegele-like players, or do we want some skill – Bokk, Suzuki, even Jarvis (although I think he is a year away – he will be a beast if he stays on his current trajectory).
We are putting a lot of our young players who have demonstrated offensive proficiency in the AHL on the 4th line and have told them to be energy players. We need a reshuffling in how we employ depth, I believe.
1) I do. But it will take hyper focus on acquiring a productive D. If it is the UFA route, then the only options are Barrie or Martinez (not sure he can play the right side, though I have read somewhere that he has with success). Barrie will require a commitment of both $ and term. Martinez likely won’t be as expensive and might sign for 4 years, so something like 5M AAV/4yrs. A trade for Jones or possibly Letang, if Pittsburgh is serious about changing their core, could work. Though both of those would mortgage the future and the cap hits would be similar or higher than Hamilton’s.
2) Ned needs to be close to a true #1, so backup is less important. That is why I like the idea of getting a veteran like Rinne for the backup role. If Reimer is willing to re-sign for $2M or less, he is a great option.
3) The “center” of the turnaround is Aho. After him TT/Pesce/Slavin/Svech/Staal have given Carolina the ability to compete with any team. We all love the energy of Martinook and McGinn and I hope the Canes can keep them because as Tampa seemed to prove players like Maroon, Coleman, and Goodrow can be the missing pieces (though Paquette was hardly missed). But don’t mistake their contributions for being indispensable. Pretty much any solid bottom six players would have played the same role, while Kucherov, Point, Hedman, Vasi were what allowed Tampa to go back-to-back.
I am guessing the Canes will hope to make room for one of their prospects on the roster, guys like Ryan Suzuki and Jack Drury are no guarantee but are likely to be nearing their first shot with the Canes (there is a good article on Jack on the Canes’ website, he played in Sweden to speed up his development).
I suspect they will give Lawrence another shot too. He is a big body, plays hard, deserves more of a look., even if his scoring touch is a bit too low, even for a 4th liner (but he scored more in jr).
The big enigma will remain on D. If the Canes can buy out Gardner they can make some salary cap room to resign Hamilton and maybe even get additional bottom pairing help, the prospect system is pretty meager on D (Joey Keen is a decent player but not really sure who else we got in on the Wolves’ roster).
I think you are correct that guys like Suzuki and Drury will be given a serious look. They need someone to step up. I would add David Cotton to that list as well. He’s a bigger, older player and was way more productive in Chicago than Suzuki. He also fits a bottom six role much better than Suzuki.