Today’s Daily Cup of Joe is a set of quick hitters on the Hurricanes forwards going from A to Z.
Sebastian Aho: He will improve anyway over the next few years, but I think reaching his ceiling will require the addition of another top-end scoring forward with whom Aho can work.
Bryan Bickell: Who had him making such a lasting impression when he came over in the trade with the Blackhawks? Certainly not I. He is a testament to the fact that as cool as hockey is, great people and great people stories trump great hockey and great hockey stories every single time.
Patrick Brown: After a fairly extended run at the NHL level this season, I am not sure that Brown is more than NHL-ready/experienced depth at the AHL level in case of a rash of injuries. He just does not bring enough offensively for what I would prefer to do with the fourth line.
Phil Di Giuseppe: I have beaten this drum numerous times already, but I continue to think if he can just slow the game down ever so slightly with the puck on his stick and start finishing that he has another level. Right now, it is exactly that scoring that makes him a decent depth forward who can score a little and more.
Elias Lindholm: He is the player I will be most anxious to watch out of the gate when the 2017-18 regular season starts. His level of play was so dramatically higher once the switch seemed to flip on near the middle of the season. I want to see him start the season at somewhere close to that level to validate that there was in fact some kind of transformation not just an extended upswing destined to be followed by another dip.
Jay McClement: My best guess is that McClement will not be re-signed. In his time with the Hurricanes, he contributed most significantly on the ice as a penalty killer, but I think his longer lasting impact and the thing that must be replaced is his quiet, unselfish professionalism. The way he quietly went about his work as a role player day in and day out is something that rubs off on young players over time.
Brock McGinn: I like McGinn’s Nathan Gerbe-like every shift intensity as much as anyone, but if I was Ron Francis, I think McGinn is the player that I would begrudgingly lose to Las Vegas. As I wrote in an early expansion draft article awhile back, my math has two forward spots remaining for only two of Lee Stempniak, Brock McGinn and Phil Di Giuseppe. Conventional wisdom suggests that Francis will expose and lose the veteran Stempniak instead of risking youth. I just think in terms of playing to win in 2017-18, Stempniak is the most valuable and that Francis will risk one of the two younger players. It is a tough call between McGinn and Di Giuseppe, but I give the slight edge to Di Giuseppe for the final protected slot and go against the consensus thinking that the Hurricanes will lose McGinn in the expansion draft.
Andrej Nestrasil: I think there is a strong chance that he is not with the Hurricanes (or the Checkers next season). His qualifying offer would need to be a one-way deal, and I do not think Francis will make that offer. At that point, Nestrasil likely shops his services elsewhere and leaves.
Joakim Nordstrom: I actually think Nordstrom is in a similar position to Brown but has the advantage of significant NHL experience and his proven ability as a penalty killer. Nordstrom fits nicely in a #13 role as a safe and sound option who can hop in out of the lineup and plays his way up higher if the team is short on penalty killers.
Victor Rask: It might be that it just is not possible, but if I could spend his summer for him it would be working with a strength training, skating specialist or whoever else might help him add a stride or two in terms of speed and a faster burst in terms of acceleration. I think some combination of quickness and speed is the biggest limitation on his ceiling as a player still on the young side of 24.
Derek Ryan: If re-signed (which I think he will be), I see him competing for the fourth-line center slot with Lucas Wallmark and sticking at the NHL level as a #13/#14 depth forward even if he ultimately loses the competition.
Jeff Skinner: Skinner’s 37 goals for the 2016-17 season is underappreciated. Finishing sixth in the entire NHL puts him in rarefied air and looks even more impressive when you consider that Skinner largely makes and finishes his own chances.
Jordan Staal: It is not inconceivable that Staal is the oldest skater on the team next season. It would take a chain of events that includes McClement not being re-signed (likely), Stempniak being lost to the expansion draft (definitely possible per expert opinions), Derek Ryan either signing elsewhere or finding his way back to the AHL (possible but less likely) and obviously no one else older than Staal being added (reasonably possible). In such a scenario, Cam Ward would be the elder statesman on the team, and Jordan Staal would be the oldest skater at only 29 years old when the season starts.
Lee Stempniak: He grew on me as the season progressed. I am not sure that he has the dynamic element that generates offense out of thin air, but I think he is capable of being a complementary third forward on almost any kind of line. Based on reading a few early articles/projections for the expansion draft, Stempniak is the consensus pick as the player that the Hurricanes will lose.
Teuvo Teravainen: I think the mid-point for his next deal is $2.5 million per season. Anything less is a bargain. Anything more than about $2.7 million starts to become a bit pricey, though not in a deal-breaker kind of way.
Lucas Wallmark: I really like the idea of building a fourth line that can provide more like third line scoring punch around either him or Derek Ryan to start the 2017-18 season.
What say you Caniacs?
Especially those who watch, want to chime in but just haven’t yet, pick a Canes forward or two or three and give us your quick hitters.
Go Canes!
Did we trade Aho when I wasn’t looking?
Good catch. Lost him when I decided to cut/past everything into alphabetical order (and will add him back in).
What strikes me about this list is that, other than Jeff Skinner, Jordan Staal, and Stempniak, who are all known commodities at this point and can be counted on to produce within a reasonable range, everyone else on the team has quite a bit of scoring upside left in their games.
Aho, TT, Lindholm, obviously, Rask, Wallmark (if he makes the team, and like you, I believe he will), and McGinn and PDG (whoever stays): there is plenty of scoring upside in this team. Another way of saying it is this: the probability of these players on this team scoring more next year is way higher than the probability of them scoring less.
I just look at players around the league still in the playoffs and, when I’m not thinking about how far we still really have to go to compete for the Cup, I see players a lot of players in their mid/late-20’s playing great hockey – at their ceiling – and realize that most of our players are still 3-4 years away from that – at least.
Can you imagine what #16 is going to be like in 3 years after he progresses over the next few seasons the way he did this year? And Aho? At least one of them will be a Center, probably both. Extremely productive players …
When I think about it like this, it almost makes me wonder whether we even need the high-end score (Duchene, Galchenyuk, etc.) or could get away with the next level down with great leadership and experience. (For example, if he can still play, I’ll bet Ryan Callahan would come really cheap.)
Very exciting and fun to think about.
To Matt (Re: Skinner): TESTIFY!!!
To dmilleravid: I think you’re absolutely right. We really don’t NEED a top line forward with our scoring potential, though given our desperate need to make the playoffs next year, I would prefer not to take that chance. Goalie is still far and away the top priority though. All that said, isn’t it going to be so fascinating watching the team next year? One of those kids is going to break out and find an even higher level that none of us expect. Matt clearly has called Di Giuseppe. I call Teravainen.
Dmiller and Foggger. You both are exactly where I am as far as excitement about next few years. The current team is almost all upside–I think Aho should challenge Skinner most years for top-goal scorer, Rask (hope he reads Matt’s OP) becomes consistent 20/50 producer, and I am with you Fogger that TT also has 20/50 potential. Which is why I think GMRF should protect Stempniak from expansion. Not all the improvement will happen next year and at $2.5 million Stempniak is a real value and seems to really help Skinner. Losing McGinn or DiG isn’t idea, but either will not significantly reduce team’s goal production.
The team in 2020-21 should be the best Raleigh has ever seen. While I love the spring and summer, I am ready today for the next season. Both individuals and the team are going to be exciting and successful.
Yeah? ……..Canes acquire DARLING….AWESOME! and for only a 3rd round pick!
Yah, that is exciting. Need to sign him ASAP.
I think we expose Joakim Nordstrom and Phil Di Giuseppe. I believe we should protect Lee Stempniak. He adds so much, can play anywhere and is also a veteran presence. I bekieve we should protect him. It is a real tossup for me with Brock McGinn and Phil Di Giuseppe. Brock can score and he is physical. I think he is a little more physical then Phil. They both have future. Its a tough call Matt but I think we should expose Phil.
I agree icecobra. With Darling signed, the focus is clearly on the playoffs in 17-18. Stempniak adds more next year than DiG. And for years past 17-18 the Canes have prospects who should be more productive (Kuokkanen, Gauthier, Zykov). So while DiGuseppe has some future, I don’t think it is irreplaceable. Even for 17-18, if Matt and Cory are prescient, then Foegele should do what DiG would.
Whereas Stempniak would be hard to replace (at least with the same salary) this upcoming season.