Yesterday’s Daily Cup of Joe addressed important decisions with a significant monetary component for Jeff Skinner, Noah Hanifin and Scott Darling.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe goes a different direction with building the 2018-19 roster and looks at the potential for a single move to solidify the defense across three levels.
Of the multiple Carolina Hurricanes players making the rounds in the pre-draft weekend rumor mill, Jeff Skinner seems to be getting the most air time. It makes sense. As a player who has twice topped 30 goals, he has value to teams that need to add offense. As a player who has a significant Achilles’ heel in terms of his play without the puck, he is not so perfect that it would be crazy to trade him. And as I said in yesterday’s article, because his contract is up next summer, the time to make a long-term decision and act accordingly is now. One of the teams rumored to be interested in Jeff Skinner is the Los Angeles Kings, and one of the comparable players rumored to be available is Jake Muzzin.
I think a theoretical trade with Jeff Skinner and Jake Muzzin as the principal players in the deal is an interesting one to illustrate a potential domino effect.
Needs for Carolina Hurricanes’ offseason improvements
1) Goaltending — Be it from improvement of the existing netminders, the addition of a new goalie or perhaps better play in front of them, the Hurricanes goaltending proficiency must improve in 2018-19 for the playoffs to be reality.
2) The second defense pairing — Possibly related to the goaltending issues is the need for the team to be better in the second defense pairing. Justin Faulk was not the anchor needed, and though he had a strong season, Haydn Fleury was overslotted in that role on a good NHL team.
3) More scoring — The team needs to score more to relieve some pressure on the defense and goalies and to win more games by running instead of trying to slow opponents enough to squeak out a win.
The domino effect
Let’s look at how a Jeff Skinner for Jake Muzzin trade (without getting bogged down in who needs to add what to make it even) impacts these and a couple other secondary needs.
Primary objectives from above
#2-The defense
Let’s start with #2 first since it is what is most directly impacted. Adding a steady top 4 defenseman to the mix could offer a direct effect but possibly an equally powerful side effect on the blue line. If take Muzzin to be the sound half of a second defense pairing you get this…
–Slavin/Pesce can play together both home and away because the need to rebalance capabilities on the road could go away. The first pairing becomes better on the road and maybe just more consistent from always playing together.
–The biggest gain is the direct effect of adding a solid, steady second pairing defenseman to the mix. Justin Faulk and Noah Hanifin have the potential to be similar, but by my assessment for 2017-18 neither qualified as a defensively sound second pairing defenseman. At a bare minimum, Muzzin adds one.
–But equally significantly, could having an experienced, steady partner boost Faulk’s play by relieving his defensive responsibilities just a bit?
–And if that happens, the third pairing and depth just looks even better suddenly with potentially capable players pushed down the depth chart.
#1-Goaltending
If the blue line is suddenly more solid, there could be a boost for the goaltending that suddenly faces some combination of fewer but maybe more significantly lower quality chances.
#3-Scoring
No doubt, scoring takes a hit if Skinner departs via trade. But here’s the thing…Is it possible that there is still a net positive. The Hurricanes were generally losing (despite his goals) with Skinner on the ice in 2017-18 just as has generally been the case throughout his career. In addition to gains on the blue line and possibly in net, it is also reasonable to believe that a Hurricanes team minus Jeff Skinner improves defensively. Is it possible that the team could in fact score less but still improve in terms of goal differential because what it gives up decreases by more. As I have said a few times recently, winning in the NHL is not about scoring goals. It is about scoring more goals than you give up. It is not impossible to think that the Hurricanes could gain in this department minus Skinner.
Then re-adding offense
It is not a huge amount, but the Hurricanes would also save $2 million in such a deal. Tack another $1 – 3 million on top of that, and might the Hurricanes be able to back fill Skinner’s role as a scorer with another scorer who potentially clicks better with some combination of the current roster?
Netting it out
The potential upside of adding just one steady top 4 defenseman is huge. That move could potentially remedy the hole at #3/#4 on the blue line, improve all three defense pairings and be part of the formula that sees goaltending improve.
That is a lot.
The departure of Jeff Skinner would also relieve some pressure defensively. Sure, the team will need to add more scoring from somewhere, but it is not clear that the gains defensively do not already significantly outweigh the losses offensively even before another offensive player is added to replace some of Skinner’s scoring.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Do you think the potential domino effect is viable, wishful thinking or somewhere in the middle?
2) Is Justin Faulk or Noah Hanifin just a steady partner (not each other) away from finding a higher gear defensively?
3) Is there a version of Jeff Skinner for Jake Muzzin that you would do?
Go Canes!
1) I think think the domino effect you discuss is reasonable. Other domino effects will happen around 2OA and Aho playing C, plus a power play with more options shouldn’t be underestimated. I am starting to channel my inner Fogger!
2) I think Hanifin is. Faulk needs to re-find his gear, so I am not sure it is a partner or a new home.
3) There are rumors surrounding Faulk to Chicago for Saad. If that happens, then I think moving Skinner for a d-man makes perfect sense. One worry I have in seeing what is being said on other sites is that a lot of folks think with Waddell the Canes can be taken advantage of For instance, Pacioretty who will also be UFA after this season has an asking price of a roster player, a prospect, and a pick. The pundits have been pushing the narrative that the ask for Skinner is only a prospect and a pick. That worries me.
1) I must say that your domino theory is beyond wishful thinking. It ignores the humanity involved. It oversimplifies everything.
2) No.
3) No.
Why do I say this?
In Jeff Skinner, we have an elite scorer. His “down year” output still ranks him high among others on the Canes. His “up year” output places him above the rest.
I have heard that plus/minus ratings are somewhat discredited. But let’s look at his anyway. -27? Does that mean that he cost the team 27 goals against? No. Of course not.
You are, however, wishfully stating that Jeff’s failure to be more attentive to the defensive side of his game is costing the team. You are saying that getting rid of Skinner will provide relief of pressure to the defense.
Then you strongly hint that even the loss of his scoring will be offset by the relief of pressure defensively that his absence will provide.
Of course, you have no facts or statistics to support your theory.
Has Jeff Skinner done something to you guys? Did he spit on you or call you dirty names?
You go on to state that Haydn Fleury had a “strong season”. Say what? How many goals did he score? Maybe we were watching different people?
Anyway. We need the following;
1) for each offensive defenseman, we need a defensive defenseman.
2) for every inexperienced defenseman, we need an experienced defenseman.
3) we need size and grit on our blue line.
4) skating beside each of our elite scorers, we need a large and gritty protector.
Remember when Skinny had Bickell? Skinny scored. When Bickell played on our power play, we scored.
With a team in front of him, any goalkeeper will do well. With a mob of individuals playing for themselves, unwilling to clear the slot and the crease, timid along the boards and behind the net, the best goalkeeper in the world will be made to look very bad.
There is an old axiom. “The best defense is a good offense.” Axioms are so named because they are, without exception, true.
I will give serious thought to any idea calling for getting rid of Skinner when the person with that idea has a way of replacing his scoring that makes sense.
So far, I haven’t seen anyone come close.
The domino theory Matt wrote about is simply stating with the right addition we could have players slot where they should. Maybe slightly oversimplified but certainly not outside the realm of possibility. It’s the equivalent of having Derek Ryan centering the 2nd vs the 4th line; in one scenario you hate having him and in the other you love it. You just need the depth ahead of him to push him into that slot where he can succeed.
If we can lock down the 2nd pairing then we don’t have to worry about hamstringing our first pairing by splitting up Slavin and Pesce; and our good third pairing guys (Fleury and TVR) don’t have to be randomly thrown into the top 4 trying to find something that works. I would love to see us get a solid guy to slot in with Hanifin on the second pairing; I’m not sure if Muzzin can play on the right side but if he can then I would be comfortable making that move.
Tripp did an interview with Bob Stauffer yesterday and discussed Hanifin and said he wasn’t as effective as he could be because he was trying too hard to be the defensive defenseman he thought the Canes needed him to be. Put a solid defensive guy next to him and let the kid loose and I think he makes a big stride next year.
As far as replacing Skinner’s production. I really like the idea of doing a Faulk + Darling for Saad + Hoosa with Chicago. Saad is just as likely to bounce back next year as Skinny is and if so would put up around 20 goals. Add to that the addition of Svechnikov, Zykov, and potentially Necas and/or Foegele plus having guys like Rask, Martinook, and Maenalanen replacing our anemic 4th liners from last year and you easily make up the difference between Skinner and Saad.
Somehow put league-average or better goaltending behind that team, let RBA motivate the hell out of them, and count me as excited.
Powerless, I appreciate you opinions, but why do you have to make it personal? Some of us have different opinions. They are just as valid. I’ve not heard anyone say they dislike Jeff Skinner as a person. I surely don’t, but I also disagree with your opinion of his value as a complete hockey player. Can’t we just leave it at that?
In all this speculation on trades, line combinations and what not, we are forgetting one important fact. What system will RBA institue as the coach. We saw Peters do a lot of rolling the players on each line to find a combination which worked. Does RBA see combinations where the linemates each raise the level of play? I think we do need a culture change and part of that was with the Owner and Front office. I am not sure how they plan to tweak the players but I feel that the two main points everyone has discussed need attention, One the goalie and second the 2nd defensive pairing. I think the talk of trading Skinner comes down to does he want to leave or not since he has a NMC. If he stays how will RBA use him in the new combinations? Interesting questions which I think we will have to wait and see how this all shakes out.
Amen! Boogabob.
What about Toby Enström? He has been a top 4 D in this league for over a decade, plays LD just like Muzzin and is very defensively reliable. He would allow a player like Faulk to play more offensively as this is the job he held playing with Byfuglien, stay at home while he goes on an offensive adventure. Could also be a great mentor to our young defensive corps. People have been telling him he is undersized for his entire career yet he still holds on to a top 4 role with sound positioning and defensive play. He isn’t going to light up the score board but that’s not exactly what we need from a veteran D-man. He is also a UFA that wouldn’t require trading for. WPG has decided to move on from him after a decade and he took it personally. I think he could be a great low risk addition of a veteran D-man.
Toby Enström could be a great add to the Canes, plus he has history with the Thrashers-turned-Canes brass, and countrymen in Lindholm and Rask.
I think he could be a great addition to the team to prop up the top 4 without trade.
I agree, Skinner should only be traded for a real return that leaves the team in a better place, not dumped for a flea market hall of a role player and a 7th roun pick or the like. Mussin for Skinner is not an even trade for sure, Mussin plus a decent forward or first round maybe, but first rounds often do not pan out.
The Canes have been a below average scoring team for years, Skinner has been their best scorer, the team has to be able to find a way to utilize that strength of his and offset his weakness (defense).
A lot of people were saying the same about Ovechkin in recent years, all scoring and no defense. He figured it out.
I agree Skinner might be a better fit on another team, given the way he plays and the directions the Canes seem to be heading, but in that scenario the key is to trade Skinner to a team he would be excited to play for (preferably in the west) for players that help this team.
I don’t think there is any downside and lots of upside in adding a steadying, veteran, defense-first defenseman for all the reasons you mentioned. The path to adding that player is obviously a little open to question. Maybe Skinner is part of that kind of trade, maybe Faulk is, maybe we use picks (not the #2) and prospects – I’m not sure I see it by signing a UFA (generally the most expensive route).
The Skinner question to me is going to come down to some combination of our interest in paying him a market rate after next season and for how long, his interest in re-signing with CAR at any rate (he may not want to stay and that’s equally important to the equation), and the risk to the team of losing him without compensation. Only a small part of the this has anything to do with whether he is a elite offensive player (he is) or a liability defensively (he seems to be that, too), which is where so much of this discussion seems to be focused.
I think the odds of the team concluding that now is the time to maximize his trade-value is higher than of either extending him or of playing wait-and-see, but no so overwhelmingly higher that we’ll make a bad trade.
Why is it that Jeff Daniels has been appointed to the assistant coach position and we aren’t talking about that?
I like the choice. How about you?
Why do you think JD is such a good addition to the cachig staff?
He’s a buddy of our new head coach, but he did not do a memorable job as the headcoach of the Checkers, and I don’t know what he’s been doing since.
Maybe there are good reasons, I just don’t know, but from what little I do know I am not impressed.
But, good point, probably material for a new topic.
Jeff Daniels had a winning record as an AHL coach. Most of the time he was working with a much weaker group of prospects from the Rutherford era of drafting. On the other had we have Mike Velluci, who after one season of professional coaching comes in third place in his division, wins one playoff series and suddenly he’s NHL head coaching material? All of this with a much deeper group of talent in Charlotte? Makes no sense to me.
The assistant coach’s job is to implement the plans of the head coach. In my opinion you want someone who is on board with the HC. I have no doubt Daniels is on board with the head coach. Daniels is and experienced and knowledgeable hockey coach. It’s a great move.
Just as there was rebellion among the players against Peters, I am certain that Steve and Roddy were not enthusiastic supporters of him. It is now certain that the presence behind the bench will be unified.
The team needs unity.
There’s a good article over on Hockeybuzz about available UFA LHDs:
http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Todd-Cordell/Examining-the-Devils-free-agent-options-on-the-left-side/159/93348
I think one of Calvin de Haan, Thomas Hickey, Ian Cole or Dan Hamhuis may be agood fit as a solid, defensively responsible, defenseman, Jack Johnson (no thanks).
The monetary cost of adding a UFA defenseman is higher than in a trade, but as has been pointed out, NHL team owners should not be penny pinching if they can fill the need of their team, and in their world a few million dollars is the equivalent of pennies.
We do not need to trade anyone a way to get oe of these 4 and I doubt their price tags are going to be outrageous.
Once one trade takes place – a trade involving Skinner?, or Faulk?, or Hanifin – the pathway to other trades becomes clearer. Those trade should lead to more of a stay-at-home D-man than we currently have, a left-wing with scoring potential, and a few other pieces and just trading one piece for another piece. I am actually hoping that one reason for the inactivity to date is that we are working on several trade scenarios where one trade triggers the others.
I am a believer that significant roster changes (and/or roster changes at a significant level) are necessary for the all-important cultural change. A perspective of “let’s see how he does under RBA” is to me an unfortunate recipe for more same-old/same-old mediocrity. Aho and Turbo need to be playing on a winning team before they catch the cancer in the locker room to which Staal alluded last season with his reference about only “most” players are dialed in.
Have to agree that some kind of change in the veteran core has to take place. The cultural issue in the locker room can’t be blamed on the young players and fourth liners. I don’t know who those problems are, but not addressing it is a recipe for failure.
The head coach and GM were replaced, but the rest of the management and coaching is the same. The new headcoach and GM were part of the old guard. The only significant outsider brought in was Duddley. There is no fresh perspective from people with NHL coaching experience elsewhere.
This looks more like a reshuffle than a drastic change to me.
If this is a sign of things to come there will be little roster movements this offseason other than Cam Ward being resigned and a few players promoted or let go.
I think signing an old Duddley player such as Engstrom is likely and fits in with the reshuffling by bringing in one outsider to give the impression of a fresh start without really changing much.
That’s a RF approach and one I am hoping isn’t what we do.
I go back to the Cuban model – a major roster shift with the Mavs before or during the second season to shake up the roster and change the culture.
But I agree with you – all appearances right now for management is a chair reshuffling.
I just wanted to leave a comment that everyone should take a moment to view an article written by a very good toronto maple leafs blogger about Jeff Skinner – and their argument for why the Leafs should look to acquire him.
https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2018/6/12/17438028/toronto-maple-leafs-jeff-skinner-carolina-hurricanes-trade-target-offseason
Furthermore, as it seems so many teams are interested in Skinner maybe we as fans should pause and think as to why. Perhaps he is part of the solution rather than a player the organization should move.
First, I agree that there are positives and negatives about evaluating Jeff Skinner, and this article is a good read to get more perspective.
But this article like pretty much every other that makes a case for Jeff Skinner looks at the scoring positives and stops there. Where is any discussion of the volume of scoring against that happens when Jeff Skinner is on the ice?
The question with Jeff Skinner is not now and has never been whether he could score. The question is whether he could round out his game enough on the other side of the puck and/or boosting line mates such that his scoring actually netted a positive. Though he did seem to make positive strides in 2016-17, he still really has not reached the point where he is well-rounded enough to be a net positive even with a bunch of individual offense.
I concur with Matt’s comments. In addition Skinner’s game is best when the puck is on his stick for no more than 2 or 3 strides. He is a sniper who should be moving through the circles to create a shot rather than crossing the blue line with the puck on his stick only to get knocked off of it. His shooting % was way down this season. And that has been a hallmark in his career – he has years with high a percentage and then years with low percentage. That is not an elite scorer. That is a player trying to figure out how to be an elite player. Most articles talk about the totality of Skinner – which is very good. But in looking at the forest they miss the trees.
Also, in addition to the play dynamics described by Matt and my observations in my first paragraph, one reason for trading Skinner is culture and apparently TD has identified Skinner as a player he wants traded for that reason. I have heard suggestions that Skinner was a negative force in the locker room this past season. I don’t know for sure but I imagine if ownership, management, and coaching in some combination want Skinner gone they will find a place attractive enough for him to waive his NMC.
Skinner to TO? Isn’t the coach of Toronto Mike Babcock? The same Mike Babcock that had Bill Peters as his assistant for three years in Detroit? The same guy that says things like “you can’t outscore your mistakes in this league?” Doesn’t seem like much of a fit to me.
Another all positive article about Skinner. His agent is working hard seeding these pieces. Let me know when an actual journalist looks at the positives and negatives of the guy.
I agree with the idea of the dominoes falling to make the team better overall. Sometimes fans are quick to question and ridicule decisions made by their favorite team.
In this instance I would like to commend GM Waddell, Dudley, and the other decision makers. They know they have some very valuable assets- 30 goal winger, RD who can run a PP, and a young LD who is loaded with potential. They have put these names out there and other front offices have to decide if they will be the top bidder. Crazy stuff happens in trades nearly every draft day. So the canes front office from my perspective has handled this well. Let the panthers, oilers, and other teams make their best pitch for Skinner. Let teams who think they are one RD away from a big run, call about Faulk.
For years it seemed nothing came out of the canes front office regarding trade news. If nothing else, the fans are engaged with the possibility of a culture change. If you had told me on April 5th that the team had traded Kruger and was negotiating a trade for Darling by the draft, I would have thought you were nuts. I expect some trades will come, but probably not until next Thursday or Friday.
Hopefully the dominoes fall in our favor. The team gets better and departing canes find a new start and new successes.
Thanks, fiftymissioncap. That article was great. But it was wasted on me. I am already aware of how valuable Skinner is to us.
The people who need to read it, won’t read it. They are foaming at the mouth Skinny haters. They can’t tell you why, convincingly. They can only tell you that we’ll be better off without him.
There are also those who hate our new owner and management. They want to shake up our ‘core’ players by trading them. They believe that Roddy will be the same kind of coach that Peters was.
And on and on and on.
Sometimes I feel like Alice must have felt at the Mad Hatter’s tea party. They are not making any sense and they are smug about it.
I surrender.
I’m fine with other teams valuing Skinner differently that us, same goes for Faulk. They’ll both score goals wherever they go and veteran teams can probably cover their defensive play better than we can, so be it. The Canes young core for the most part plays a different brand and carries a different moxie than those two (who have made up a fair portion of the 9-year drought). I also think in part Skinner and Faulk didn’t instill the right messages with the team through their own actions. Hanifin and Lindholm could have benefited from playing with better leaders, and it may be too late for them as well? So why keep players around who haven’t led us to anything? You can argue the same for Staal but he at least doesn’t appear lost and confused when we lose.
The time is now to change the core. I can envision a domino effect, and that will start with the trigger effect (something our last GM resisted). Waddell is not afraid to pull the trigger and the dominos will soon fall. Our team will be better off for it.
lfd – you and I have very similar views on team culture and players in that regard. I am not sure, however, that DW has yet proved that he is not afraid to pull the trigger. The time is getting closer for things to seriously start happening – if they are going to.
tj…I agree. The GM is now in “show me” mode and the suspense will become larger in these next two weeks.
Yes, yes, yes. As usual, I agree with your analysis. I don’t think that Skinner is going to be a part of this team getting back to playoff-level competitiveness, and I doubt that Faulk is either. However, I will concede that things might be very different for each of those players under Coach Rod. I think it is very important to shore up that 2nd D pair, which will help improve the dismal goaltending and keep Slavin-Pesce together. If Muzzin can be that guy, I would trade Skinner for him, regardless of what else is included in the deal. I very much like the idea of Saad for Faulk, especially if we acquire a good top 4 D veteran somehow. So, yeah. Type this up and send it to that GM committee we now have. I’ll sign off on it.
With everything Chicago did to get Saad back I can’t imagine they are interesting in trading him.
Matt. Please let me start by saying that I have been reading your comments for a along time (hockey buzz days) and I have contributed to the site and really enjoy every ones comments and will keep this as my go to site for intelligent and insightful comments on the Canes….. However, I have a few questions, concerns(?) About the site and the layout… I also admit that all of this could be coming from my not knowing how to use the site. And also forgive me if this is the wrong place for this…. Ok… Here goes…#1. I find the site hard to find what is most current. I always go past the pictures to the chronological lists of the posts. I do not understand what/why the picture links stay the way they are. Is it because people have posted to them? I would think they would rotate chronologically. #2. Ive said this before however it would be nice to be able to go to a thread and see what is new since the last time I was here. I normally don’t revisit posts because I am not sure what I have already read. These are probably little things but I find myself not coming back as often as I would if I now how to see the new threads.. just wanted to share this with you… And thanks for listening and for building this place where through yours and the great posters comments, my fondness for this great game and the Canes has certainly grown…. Thanks.
paul (??) – use the full blog site and you will see Matt’s blog posts in chronological order (https://canesandcoffee.com/full-blog/). I do not see pictures (although I remember they were a little confusing).
I don’t think Matt has control over how his blog post bubble up, if people comment to them, or how comments within a blog post bubble up if new or if a new comment has been made. I think it is a limitation of this platform. And most blog platforms are quite limited.
Thanks tj.
I don’t necessarily agree with the rationale behind Skinner’s offense being addition by subtraction due to his ‘terrible defensive play’ and his ‘one-man rogue style’. Derek Ryan at best is an inconsistent offensive minded centermen who did Jeff Skinner NO favors on the defensive end. Couple that with the fact that Skinner was missing his past year linemate in Lee Stempniak (and when he returned an unhealthy one at that) and I don’t pin the blame of Jeff Skinner’s +/- solely on him.
I think when he played with Ryan and Stempniak they played fine 1 year ago and defense wasn’t exactly a question mark but I think people are failing to point the finger at Derek Ryan having a similar/same type of regression as Skinner. While Ryan put up points at a similar rate to year 1 I saw that he was overmatched many nights as well. Also think about the times nobody complained about Skinner when he played with Rask and Diguiseppe , where he had a competent defensive minded center and a good digger kind of like Stepmniak on the other wing.
It is true Skinner is a specialist and he isn’t some guy you can plug into ANY line and make it work. But when he’s on a good line with solid support players in my opinion he can turn an average 3rd line into an elite one. I mean it’s classic Carolina Hurricanes logic to take a good player, play them with mediocre linemates and then circle back to judge the only good player in the bunch. We’ve done it already with Eric Staal and i’m afraid Jeff Skinner is about to be the next casualty.
To look at Skinner’s defensive issues in isolation of the player rather than a cumulative effect of the entire circumstances of the season is just wrong in my opinion. I see Skinner’s plus minus as a reflection of a team that struggled so mightily to score that he was forced to gamble and take risks at times in games that might have led to GAs – driving up that – statistic. Furthermore I saw that he did not have the same chemistry with his linemates nor did I think they did ANY better a job on the defensive end than Skinner did. He is a polarizing type of player but scoring goals in the NHL is hard and the Canes suck at this and they should not trade the 1 guy they have that manufactures them on his own especially when his value is ‘lower’.