By no means is anything decided for the Canes 2018-19 season, and the measure of accomplishment currently teeters on the fence of success and failure. But at a bare minimum, the Hurricanes will take the ice in game #82 on Saturday still with a chance to make the playoffs.
Many of the reasons that the Hurricanes are where they are right now could have been predicted. Sebastian Aho, who is still only 21 years old, taking the next step in his development could have been predicted. The deep blue line becoming a strength could have been predicted or even expected. Justin Williams making a difference as the team’s captain could have been predicted as could many other contributors.
But there are also key factors that seemed to fall out of the sky that have played a key role. Today’s Daily Cup of Joe highlights a few of those unpredictable factors.
Curtis McElhinney and the team’s goaltending
Before the season began, one could have made a case for the Hurricanes goaltending improving between some combination of a Scott Darling rebound and/or Petr Mrazek making the most of his chance to claim the starter’s crease. And the Hurricanes goaltending did improve. But no one could have predicted that Curtis McElhinney would play a huge role in the Hurricanes goaltending stepping up from a liability to at least decent to becoming a strength. His role as a stabilizing force in net early in the season when the team was trying to figure it out could become underappreciated due to recency bias and Petr Mrazek’s heroics of late. But when Mrazek started slow and Darling continued to struggle, McElhinney was the one who played well and helped buy time until the team could get its feet underneath it. Despite Mrazek’s late-season surge, McElhinney still boasts the same .912 save percentage which makes for every-game steadiness, and McElhinney was a huge 7-2-1 in October and November when the team was trying to get going.
Don Waddell and the front office
When the team concluded its general manager search more or less with a decision not to hire a general manager, there was definitely potential reason for concern. Don Waddell had experience in the same role with the Atlanta Thrashers but based partly on how that ended, many including myself were not enamored with the decision. But when one considers the key factors in the team’s 2018-19 season thus far, Waddell deserves a significant amount of credit. His off-season work to change over a significant of the roster and pull off a blockbuster adding Dougie Hamilton and Micheal Ferland have been pretty unanimously successful. Jordan Martinook for Marcus Kruger — win. Signing Petr Mrazek to replace Cam Ward — win. Adding Calvin de Haan via free agency — win. And trading Noah Hanifin and Elias Lindholm for Dougie Hamilton and Micheal Ferland — win. But one of the things that changed the trajectory of the 2018-19 season was adding Nino Niederreiter for Victor Rask. The move was a key puzzle piece in building a forward lineup that was four lines deep, could spread some scoring depth throughout the lineup and still had a legitimate top scoring line. When one looks at how the 2018-19 season has come together, much of it has Don Waddell’s fingerprints all over it.
Greg McKegg and Saku Maenalanen
The team continues to find a way to win in March, but peak Hurricanes for the 2018-19 season at least so far was in January and February. The arrival of Niederreiter played a role in the turning point as did the rise of the goalies, but a key part of the formula when the team seemed to pivot upward was Brind’Amour’s ability to find a set of forwards that he could trust 12. Certainly, other players maybe played larger roles and garnered more headlines, but the Hurricanes surge really started with the win over the Flyers on December 31. Not to be lost in the timeline is the fact that Saku Maenalanen was recalled on January 1, Greg McKegg was recalled on January 4. At a time when the team was sinking and short at the center position with Jordan Staal out with an injury, McKegg provided a short-term scoring burst but maybe more significantly long-term depth. In a fit of irony, the Hurricanes transition to being four lines deep actually occurred with Staal out of the lineup. That is an incredibly improbable point in the Hurricanes 2018-19 success especially given that Martin Necas did not work out at the NHL level. In the front part of the season, Brind’Amour cycled through most of the options in Charlotte trying to find something that he liked. Martin Necas, Janne Kuokkanen, Nicolas Roy, Victor Rask, Clark Bishop, Phil Di Giuseppe and Valentin Zykov all rotated through the bottom forward slots before Brind’Amour finally settled on McKegg and Maenalanen. If one looks at scoring totals McKegg and Maenalanen do not stand out, but with Brind’Amour’s uptempo forechecking style of play, I think the ability to roll four lines in most games and reasonably spread minutes across four lines played a significant role in the Hurricanes being able to execute their attacking style without wearing down. That more than scoring is McKegg and Maenalanen’s improbable contribution to the team’s current position.
Nino Niederreiter
Piggybacking on my second point about Don Waddell, his hit ratio for moves to build the 2018-19 roster is more or less perfect. But his in-season move to add Nino Niederreiter takes the prize. Before he season started, the possibility of trading Victor Rask after a lackluster 2017-18 campaign was there, but given the mismatch between his salary and his 2017-18 scoring production, the deal would seemingly have needed to be a swap of similarly mismatched players. Then when he missed an extended period of time with his hand injury and started slowly when he returned, the Hurricanes looked to be saddled with his contract. But somehow Waddell pulled off what Minnesota must have categorized as one of those swaps of underperforming players. But the move instantly rejuvenated Niederreiter who has been a solid first line finisher next to Sebastian Aho. As with the arrival of McKegg and Maenalanen, Niederreiter’s addition added scoring but maybe equally importantly depth to have scoring spread across more lines.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Do you have any other improbable contributors to the Hurricanes current position in the 2018-19 season?
2) Of the four contributors that I detailed which do you is most significant?
3) With other higher-end contributors garnering more attention, which under the radar factor was most significant? McElhinney helping hold things together in October and November? McKegg and Maenalanen providing the forward depth need to run four lines and keep everyone fresh in Brind’Amour’s system?
Go Canes!
You mentioned the trades Waddell made – wht about the trades he didn’t make? Justin Faulk for ???. Trading a RHD for Nylander?
The biggest contributor is Nino. To me the season didn’t change character with the NYE win against PHI. It changed after Nino’s first game with us – the OTT games a week later in which the team played so poorly that RBA apologized to Nino. We haven’t seen that indifferent style of play since then.
I might suggest Staal since his return. His game has gone to quite a level.
Good call on the seemingly inevitable Faulk trade. Because of the impending expansion draft, salary cap budget and his coming free agent status/next contract, I still think there is a decent possibility he gets dealt this summer.
But as far as the 2018-19 season goes thus far, keeping him has been a positive. As things have shifted over the course of the season he has been a mainstay in a top role first with de Haan and more recently with Pesce. I was among the harshest of Faulk critics for his defensive play for about 2 years and have been impressed by his current season.
That plays a significant role in where the team is right now. And it also boosts his trade value if the team goes that route.
I, for one, hope the Canes don’t trade Faulk this offseason. He won’t bring the only return that makes sense, which is a 30-goal winger. Despite the failure (I was sadly one of the poster most mistaken) of Zykov, I think the Canes have enough forwards for next season.
NN/Aho/Williams, Svechnikov/Wallmark/TT, rookie/Staal/Necas. Having seen the progression in several Checkers, I think either Saarela or Kuokkanen will be able to produce in the NHL next season. On a line with Necas, I think Staal’s veteran presence would be a great fit.
The other thing about Faulk is that he is not part of a surplus. The de Haan injury highlights the need for 5 “top 4” defensemen.
I completely agree with tj, the acquisition of Niedereitter made the biggest difference. Though I still argue that the hockey gods starting to give Carlina breaks also helped. The pre-Christmas win against Boston then the two victories over NYI and Buffalo sandwiched around the Tampa loss all featured goals that didn’t originate with shots. That just wasn’t happening for the Canes in November and the first three weeks of December. The combination of good luck, good goaltending, and a great trade combined to give this team and its fan faith. Never underestimate faith.
Addition by subtraction. The commitment to “Culture Change” was not just hyperbole. Skinner was traded for just miscellaneous parts making Waddell and “the committee” look really foolish. Had that trade not occurred how would the team look now?
I stand by what I said when it happened that the Jeff Skinner move was a Brind’Amour trade aimed at culture not personnel. With the no-trade clause, the return by all accounts was sub-par, but as time marches on the deal increasingly looks like maybe it was just the best possible in a difficult situation and with a higher purpose.
The Skinner trade was thr right move for all parties. We turned Pu into Jurco who is tearing it up in CLT – this year’s McKegg.
More addition by subtraction. Dundon’s decision to sack Ron Francis was the beginning of the commitment to “Culture Change”. Anyone missing the annual, “but, I really liked the team.” presser.
But I LOVE this team! 🙂
Wait, is it good or bad that those trades were not made?
Faulk has been playing pretty well, but the team could’ve done with one more impact forward, whether Nylander fits that category is hard to say.
I think the committee gets a solid B+ for their trades.
Skinner – C- (maybe he should’ve been traded away, I’m beginning to think maybe it was necessary, but the hall we got for him was pathetic, enough of that).
Rask for Nino – A+. it was a highway robbery and this time the Canes management were the guilty party. The two roughly cancel each other out.
Adding Calvin, A it was a predictable UFA signing but the term and the price were good and he brought much needed stability to the blue line.
The big trade, definitely a B, maybe a B+, but I”m not yet sure. In december it looked like the Flames definitely walked away with the spoils but then Hamilton caught fire so by now the Canes may even be on the winning end. It’s still uncertain, after all Ferland has lost his touch and the Fox is probably slipping away. Also I would’ve liked to keep Lindholm.
So B for sure, B+ maybe.
Martinook for Kruger, solid A.
Adding Mac, another solid A.
Bringing up re enforcements from Charlotte, probably more on the coach than management. I really like the attitude of auditioning Checkers players and we came up with a few winners. I think Necas is just not ready. For all the talk of his eligibility, he has not been the best players on our AHL team, until he is his draft status does not matter so much to me, bring up the guys who have showed that they could make a difference, Necas will hoepfully do that, I think so, but so far he is not a given upgrade.
I want to see Saarella the Goat boy, the Beaner, Poturolski or “Jerko”.
I don’t think you give enough credit to how Necas has developed in CLT. Vellucci thinks he should be here – I am good with that.
I like all the other names you mention – Saarela is gunning for 30 goals this season, Gauthier is moving his feet and playing like a power forward, Bean will be on the roster next season (another one held back because of the expansion draft), Poturalski is “Mr. Everything” there. Jurco, however, is on an AHL contract right now – easy enough to change but unlikely this season. The Checkers are going to have a great Cup run – I can’t wait for our schedule to be known so I can planto drive to CLT.
Even I have come around to the thought that trading Skinner was the right thing to do (despite pairing him with one of the top centers in the league Buf ended up being a disaster second only to the Sens). I still stand by my call that the return was seriously subpar, though turning Pu into Jurco definitely partly made up for it.
Watching the Tor game I also am hoping the Canes could sign or develop someone like Tavares. He’s just that good, that difference making, 47 goals, my goodness.
On the other hand, the Canes won that game and are only 4 points behind Toronto, with their star studied line of forwards, that is durn impressive.
cannot
breezy–the Canes have developed Tavares. In fact, he had to slow down to continue the Tavares trajectory he was on. That is Aho.
When you consider that Tavares turned 19 the September before his first NHL season and Aho turned 19 in July before his first NHL season, the production similarities are uncanny.
1st Season: Aho 24g/25a; JT 24g/30a
2nd Season: Aho 29g/36a; JT 29g/38a
3rd Season: Aho 30g/52a; JT 31g/50a
I think it is safe to say Aho is a better skater and better defensively.
By the way, Svechnikov’s rookie season falls between two other #2 picks: Reinhart (actually his second season, which was his first in the NHL) and Landeskog.
I also was disappointed with losing Skinny… however, I see the error in my ways….(Still wish him the best!). I agree with the breeze that the Nino/Rask trade makes up for the skinny trade. That may have been the key. It was eye opening to me to see what a difference that made. All of the lines fell into place.
Something that hasn’t really been mentioned is the impact (positively) that Staal’s injury had on the team. I am not saying that injury is good, and would never wish that on any player…. just saying that gave some players a chance to step up and forced RBA to makes some line changes.