With the return of most of a team that made the playoffs and a few new additions, the Hurricanes roster is pretty full but with a few heated battles for roster spots likely in preseason.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe takes an early look at those roster battles by position.
Goalie
If the team starts the season with James Reimer still in tow, I think the goalie position is the most straight forward of the lost. No doubt the Hurricanes will want to get Alex Nedeljkovic some NHL ice time during the 2019-20 season, but I think that would wait. Out of the gate, the Hurricanes have two good reasons to get Reimer some ice time at the NHL level. First, after a tough 2018-19 season, that would give the team a measure of what they have in Reimer. Related and more significantly, getting Reimer launched positively into the 2019-20 season would position the team to trade him as teams have issues with injuries or poor play at the goalie position. One has to figure that the end desired end game for Reimer would be to trade him to clear space for Nedeljkovic. Anton Forsberg is even deeper down the depth chart. I do not think there is anything he can do in a preseason start or two to leap frog the three goalies in front of him.
So though the team will talk about ‘earning ice time in net’ (what else are they going to say?), I think Reimer is destined for the NHL initially and that Nedeljkovic will mostly be playing to show that he is in fact ready once the team can make room for him.
How it ends: Reimer starts the season at the NHL level with the aim of boosting his stock ideally for a trade.
Defense
With Calvin de Haan’s departure, the Hurricanes top 4 is set with Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, Justin Faulk and Dougie Hamilton. Trevor van Riemsdyk also figures to be a regular though he could be delayed recovering from his shoulder injury. But that leaves an interesting try out between Haydn Fleury, Jake Bean, Gustav Forsling and Roland McKeown likely for two slots to start the season and probably only one once van Riemsdyk returns. As I noted in a previous article, only Bean can return to the AHL without having to clear waivers which makes it reasonably likely that the team could trade a player from this group instead of risking losing one of them for nothing. Each player in this roster battle has merit. Fleury would be the front-runner based on experience, but Forlsing is also a left shot with a good amount of NHL experience. McKeown is a wild card with his limited NHL experience, but he has a history of dialing up his game wearing an NHL uniform. As a player who could boost scoring and the power play, Bean is probably the most intriguing of this group, but because he can be returned to the AHL without clearing waivers, he is probably most likely to at least start there.
Here is what I think it takes for each player:
Fleury: As the incumbent, he can win a spot just by looking steady and ready to take another step.
Forsling: Forsling needs to jump Fleury. I think doing so requires showing a higher level in terms of advancing the puck and pushing pace.
McKeown: If van Riemsdyk misses the start of the season, McKeown could land in an audition on the right side. To stick, he only needs to show enough to suggest that his upside is higher than the others. That in itself should cause the team to pause.
Bean: His path to regular NHL ice time comes via his offensive ability and potential to quarterback a power play unit. As noted above, he could still end up on hold in Charlotte while the team tries to net a trade return for one of the other players.
How it ends: Bean starts in Charlotte to buy time to evaluate the other three players. If van Riemsdyk is not ready for opening day, all three of the other defensemen rotate for evaluation purposes. In the end, I think either Forsling or McKeown is traded for a mid to late round draft pick, and Bean works his way up to the NHL before the midway point of the season.
Forwards
If Williams returns, that would be 12 forwards at the NHL level not counting Martin Necas or Saku Maenalanen.
In that scenario, I see a two-stage try out. First, Martin Necas will be given every opportunity to win an NHL slot, and if he does it will be in the lineup not the #13 slot. In that scenario, the bottom wings including Brock McGinn, Jordan Martinook, and Warren Foegele would be battling to stay in the lineup if the full roster is healthy.
If Necas does not prove ready yet, he would be sent to the AHL (no need to clear waivers) where he can continue his development playing heavy minutes. That would tee up a battle that includes the three forwards noted above plus Maenalanen, Clark Bishop and possibly Brian Gibbons to fill out the last couple forward slots and the #13 forward role.
How it ends: If Williams returns (my gut says he will), and Necas does at least start the 2019-20 season at the NHL level that would trigger a battle for the last couple forward slots. Rather than a single winner, I think the result is Martinook, McGinn, possibly Foegele and anyone else who is dinged up rotating in and out of the lineup. The odd man out in this scenario could be Maenalanen who is waiver exempt and could log time in the AHL to make room.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Do you think there is truly a try out for the backup goalie position? Or is Reimer a near certainty at least to start the season?
2) On defense, of Fleury, Forsling, McKeown and Bean, which two will prove to be the best in preseason? Once the dust settles maybe later in the season after van Riemsdyk returns, who do you see as the bottom pairing?
3) At forward, after sputtering at the NHL level but then rebounding at the AHL level, do you think Necas will prove ready for the NHL this time around? If so, who will get pushed out of the lineup and into the #13 slot?
Go Canes!
This is such a deep forward group and a really impressive top 4 D. If Mrazek can play steady in net, this group could be special.
You write that if Williams returns, then Necas will start at the “NHL level.” Did you mean AHL? Because I don’t see a spot for anyone if Williams returns.
Even if Williams retires, Necas may still start in AHL. It sure feels like Dzingel sort of grabs the spot in the top 9 where Necas would have been. And there may be more of a need for Saku’s big bruising style of play in the bottom 6 instead of Necas and his perhaps still undersized frame.
I’m not down on Necas, but he might be better suited as a call up if there’s a top 6 injury.
The contract situation regarding waivers is likely to trump other considerations regarding who makes the NHL squad to start the year. This is clearest at the goalie level, where Ned is destined to be in Charlotte as number 3 on the Canes depth chart. He will be battling with Forsberg there to maintain that position. The other players mentioned that are waiver eligible are Necas, Maenalanen and Bean. Their camps and pre-season games will need to be overwhelmingly good to force their way onto the team. The possibility to lose a player(s) to waivers is real, further suggesting another trade is being looked for by “the committee”.
Off topic but a good morning read. https://mynhltraderumors.com/2019-20-top-10-carolina-hurricanes-prospects/2019/07/30/
1) I don’t believe that Donny and Tommy have ever thought of Reimer as a part of the lineup for my beloved Canes. He will be traded. Or maybe Ned if the price is right. The goalkeeper glut, while great for having a false sense of security, just will not work. Our goalkeeper glut will be thinned out by one or two by the beginning of the season.
2) We seem to have taken Trevor Carrick out of the mix. I believe that he is going to be in the running. That is, unless he is traded. To lose him for nothing, doesn’t make sense to me. We do not have a need for scoring defensemen. We have plenty. Our top four are each good sized. Each can take care of himself. We have them paired as one d-minded and one with an offensive mindset. Our third pairing needs two stay-at-home d-men. TVR and Carrick would complement each other. TVR skates well with reasonable speed. Carrick will be ultra aggressive in front of and behind the net as well as along the boards.
Our Haydn brings nothing to the table. NOTHING! I do hereby renew my challenge. Tell me what he does well. The answer is, nothing.
Little Jakie brings an abundance of offense (proven at the AHL level). Suddenly, with the goons in this league eager to welcome him to the NHL, we think he will fit right in? Really? On top of that, some have theorized that Little Jakie will be the savior scoring catalyst for our power play? C’mon guys and gals! Give me a break. This is the REAL NHL.
I like Roland McKeown. I think he is a season full of rookie NHL mistakes away from being a good NHL defenseman.
I believe that Donny and Tommy will pull the trigger on a trade. We have a glut of right handers. We need a big aggressive left hander.
If Carrick is deemed by management to be unsuitable, so be it. But our Haydn as well as Little Jakie are not the men for the job.
3) Our situation at the forward position is beyond a glut. With the addition of NHL proven Dzingel and McCormick, and the potential comeback of Willy, this game of musical chairs will show more than one man standing when the music stops. I think the committee had a plan when they added Dzingel and McCormick. Is Necas ready for the NHL? Is he ready willing and able to play Roddy’s way? Let’s not forget my favorite, Julien Gauthier.
The situation is ripe for a few opportunistic trades. Trading away some minor, but promising assets for picks would fit the pattern of building from within.
I foresee us having even more than 12 picks in 2020. A good start with 2 first rounders.
Go Donny! Go Tommy! Go Roddy!
Thanks, Surgalt. Again with an article full of thought provoking pith.
My thoughtful and insightful reply to yours truly has fallen into a hyperspace black hole pending review. There are even articles that you will find entertaining and maybe enlightening in my comments.
1. I think Reimer definitely comes out of camp with the team. This was one of the topics that Mike Maniscalco and I talked about at the ballgame over the weekend. His overall body of work is solid (last year wasn’t even typical for his time with FLA) and he may well challenge Mrazek for the No. 1 spot as the season progresses. In other words, I don’t think he is being groomed for a trade.
Ned gets his chance on an injury call up – only if he is successful in that role does a trade of either Reimer or Mrazek materialize. Forsberg is simply depth.
2. If TvR is not good to go, I expect the 3rd pairing will be McKeown-Fleury (although I would be surprised if RBA goes with two young players). I expect McKeown will be carried as the 7th D rather than risk losing him on waivers. At the same, this is the type of cost reduction (carrying only 6 D on the roster) that O/M is known for. The waiver issue may drive the decision.
Bean is the first call-up on the left – unless he astounds everyone in training camp (and I wouldn’t be surprised if he does). Because he is still waiver exempt I think he starts back in CLT.
3. I think Necas is ready – he was very impressive once he was moved to the wing in CLT. But I am not sure RBA will view him as his style of player and that may well impact his usage and affect the decision to keep him here or not. I think there will be an interesting view into RBA’s mindset if Williams does re-sign as to whether he tries to find a place for Necas or moves him back to CLT in favor of his energy guys (McGinn, Martinook, Foegele) – but how many “energy guys” does a team need?? Saku is the odd man out of all of this – if I was a betting man (and I only bet on sure things so this is a pure guess on my part), Saku is holding out for a one–way contract (or a major guarantee on a 2-way) so that he will still get his money even while playing in CLT. Without that and with a move back to CLT, I expect we will see him depart for the KHL sooner rather than later.
1. Reimer is a prototypical backup and is likely slated for the opening roster. The bigger point is that Mrazek needs to start the season on time (he won’t have as much wiggle room this year with Ned ready to bust onto the scene). I think once Ned gets his chance, he doesn’t let go of the starters role, and then we can speculate.
2. McKweon/Fleury would be the most suitable 3rd pairing if TVR is not ready. They also have successful chemistry as a pairing in the AHL. Similar to my above scenario, the larger question is TVR needs to seize his spot, otherwise he might be on the outside for a bit.
3. Necas is ready. I also think Saku eventually signs, and it’s someone from the current mix that is dealt.
1. I believe Reimer is currently penciled in to fill the 1 or 2 goalie slot. Ned to Charlotte an comes up if either Petr or Reimer fails.
2. Bottom pairing is Fleury and McKeon until TVR comes back and proves he can play at last year’s level. Bean, unless he has a miraculous preseason, goes back to Charlotte.
3. If Necas has a great preseason, they will make room for him. Otherwise it’s back to Charlotte. The same can be said for Gauthier if he has an outstanding preseason. The forwards is an area where if our youngsters can show they can play I can see one or two of our current penciled in fourth liners moved out in trades to make room for more talented less costly young players. Saku, who I think is a needed element, looks like he has an uphill battle to stay up in the NHL at the start of the season. I think McCormick’s signing is a protection against losing Saku.
Just my guesses. Just remember, no one has ever said I was the Nostradamus of hockey. Also note, that I have reinstituted my margin of error for my opinions. It is plus or minus infinity. That way I’m never wrong even if I’m never right.
I accept your challenge. Here are my expectations of your challenge. While anecdotes of a particular play from a particular game(s) can be used, we both understand that a single play or even a handful of plays taken individually are not predictors of a young players future, either good or bad. (Were that the case every young player could be easily misjudged.) One’s general impression can be given, but must be supported by the stats generated by the player. Reasonable allowances can be made for the age and experience level of the player. In this case the player evaluation is based on their expected usage this season. Regarding Hayden Fleury, the acceptable level of play is as a usable defenseman on par with an average 3rd pairing defenseman in the NHL. My defense of the player will follow shortly.
1) I had thought Reimer was going to be moved. Now—thanks to some of the posters here—I think he may be part of a 1A/1B. I think it works fine, but is a mistake. I say that because Ned needs a shot at developing in the NHL. I understand Forsberg as a fallback plan, but not Reimer. With Ned and Forsberg in the AHL there is no room for Booth and Helvig. That is shortsighted. From what research I have done, which is not exhaustive but includes about 20 current NHL goalies, it is rare for a goalie to spend more than one season in the ECHL and make it to the NHL. The development curve is overwhelmingly one or no seasons in the ECHL and 2-3 seasons in the AHL. If the organization thinks neither Booth nor Helvig will make it to the NHL that is one thing, but it appears that they are willing to stagnate the development of both while at the same time having Ned make only incremental progress in his development. If the organization had only Ned it would make more sense.
2) I read somewhere (maybe in the comments here) that Bean played the right side in juniors. If that is true, then I hope he gets a shot while TRV is recovering. I would like to see this in the preseason:
Slavin/Hamilton
Pesce/Bean
Fleury/Faulk
I think Bean is the true keeper, though I like all of Mckeown, Fleury, and Forsling. If the above pairings work, then I think Bean joins TVR, Faulk and Pesce reunite, and Fleury is #7. The Canes will either trade one or both of Forsling and McKeown or risk waivers. This is all uninformed speculation.
3) Necas is ready to be the RW on the third line. The Canes really need a right-shot; his speed will serve him well.
It really looks like Maenalanen is out.
1. I see one of two scenarios play out:
A. Reimer and Mrazek start as the tandem, Ned is readlly to be the miracle backup goalie in case of injuries, he wants a St. Blues type stint. Next yer Ned is on a one-way deal so it’s clear the team intends to give him an audition. This is the safe and sound approach. If the team is doing badly Reimer can be dealt at the deadline (typical rental) and Ned given a chance. If the duo is good enough to get the Canes into the playoffs then we should be happy with that. Forsberg is the odd man out and I would expect that he’d be dealt. There’s got to be a team that wants another goalie ensurance option.
B. The Canes deal Reimer, sign a UFA or an RFA on a deal and rely on Mrazek as the #1 goalie and give Ned and Forsberg a shot at the backup slot, even have them split the duty. This plan is more risky but allows more cap flexibility and development for younger goalies (if there is a taker for Reimer, that is, and that is a big if). Either way I expect one of the 4 goalies to be dealt, just a question if it is going to be Reimer or Forsberg.
2. Hard to predict the D, but I expect at least one d prospect to be dealt, maybe along with a goalie to a team in need.
I could see something like Forsberg + a D prospect to Tampa for Tyler Johnson, Tampa could buy out the goalie they got from the Sens and use Forsberg as a affordable backup.
3. I suspect JW is not coming back and the team is in transition. Necas would take JW’s place and the team would have more competition for the remaining roster spots. I’ll miss JW, and I hope that I am wrong, but I suspect, for financial and other reasons, that it’s time to continue handing over the torch to the nextgeneration of players and this is likely the year (given the silence on the JW front).
Thanks Matt!
1) I think Reimer is a near certainty at the back-up position, mainly because of the experience, and his numbers (except for last year, but Florida was generally underwhelming last year) were respectable to good. For most of those years, he was as a back-up, and appears to to have been relatively solid. In a few of those years, he played more than half the games. I think he will push Mrazek in a way similar to the way CMac did. Plus, being a few years older, his experience might be an added, calming influence in the paint area.
That being said, I think Ned will get more call-ups, and when he does, it will be more than riding the pine.
2) I have NO sense or idea on this topic. If given the chance, I hope McKeown and or Bean get more of a look than single digit minutes in a game. My prediction is IF Fleury plays and gets over the “first NHL goal” hump, that will help his confidence, and likely lead to more scoring.
3) Necas is almost assured a spot on the NHL roster this year. Much has been said that his time in the Charlotte was because 1) already had one rookie to break-in with Svech, and 2) he needed to learn more the North American game.
For Necas, it will come down to maturity and mental readiness for the NHL level. His skills are there.
No idea on who might get pushed out, or becomes the 13th forward.