Today’s Daily Cup of Joe takes a quick look at difficult lineup decisions stemming from a couple different sources.
In goal
Petr Mrazek remains the #1, but as the season wears on the organization could have some difficult decisions with regard to who gets the #2 starts. James Reimer was strong in his first two starts but has sputtered a bit in four straight now. I think ideally the team wants Reimer to at least play his way up to a level where he can be traded at some point even if it is just part of a bigger deal. The situation in Charlotte further complicates things. Ideally, the Hurricanes need to get Alex Nedeljkovic a trial at the NHL level to see if he is ready/capable to at least be a competent backup. The issue there is NHL ice time but also the fact that Nedeljkovic is off to a poor start in the AHL. At least for now, it seems that the organization needs to give him time to reestablish himself. In fact, if the team needed to recall an AHL goalie with the objective of winning the next game, Anton Forsberg, who has been the better AHL goalie, would be the obvious choice. So as the season wears on, the team could have some weird balance between planning for the future, winning now and boosting Reimer’s trade value.
On the blue line
The ongoing decision is who to slot into the third defense pairing. Haydn Fleury returned to the lineup on Monday and played well. With the win, I would expect Trevor van Riemsdyk to again be in the press box for Thursday’s game. But longer term there again are competing factors. Based on merit alone, my assessment is that Jake Gardiner would be the healthy scratch right now. But with the team’s four-year investment in Gardiner, the organization is likely to err significantly on the side of patience giving Gardiner every opportunity to play his way up to a higher gear. The team must balance winning now with the potential long-term damage if the team shows a lack of faith and/or commitment with the newly-arrived Gardiner. Also, lurking behind the current group at the NHL is Jake Bean who at some point needs an NHL audition somewhat like Nedeljkovic.
At forward
With Erik Haula out for the time being but Jordan Martinook practicing and close to returning, the forward line combinations have varied in recent games. The rise of Eetu Luostarinen also adds another wrinkle. When Erik Haula returns, the team will be five deep at center. Though the sample size is small, I actually like Luostarinen over Wallmark for the fourth-line center. The players are both ahead of their time in terms of two-way play, but I prefer Luostarinen for his more aggressive and physical play. In addition, Jordan Martinook should bump someone out of the lineup. Best guess is that Brian Gibbons returns to the AHL, but the question is whether Luostarinen could be moved to wing to stick at the NHL level. My best guess is that the team sticks with the original four centers but that Luostarinen possibly gets a look on the wing.
What say you Canes fans?
1) How do see the Hurricanes lineup resolving itself in terms of:
a) The goalie position.
b) The blue line.
c) The forward position.
Go Canes!
Matt. Glad you wrote this article—all things I have been thinking about.
1a) Matt, your depth of knowledge about the Canes and the articles your write are terrific. That said, you are simply wrong about Forsberg being the “better goalie” or “obvious choice.” Based solely on GAA and sv% they are amazingly even. Forsberg 3.22/.890. Ned 3.29/.885.
However, Ned has been outstanding the past three games—since the middle of October. I was at the first game in Hartford where Ned gave up 5 goals. He was not good—but the truth is the team was horrid. Then Ned had a game where he gave up 3 goals on 5 shots—mostly due to his own stick handling gaffes on less than good ice. Since that disaster, Ned has stopped 90 of 96 shots (one was a penalty shot in OT by former Cane Nathan Gerbe). His GAA is 2.06 and sv% is .938. In all “game” situations, his GAA is 1.69 and sv% is .949.
In other words, if the goal was to win one game, the choice between Ned and Forsberg today would be pretty easily in Ned’s favor.
2) Edmundson had a good game, especially on the score sheet. However, I still support your ideas from the past few days that the top 4 should be Pesce/Slavin/TVR focused. The other option, if Slavin/Hamilton and Edmundson/Pesce continue to hold up, then rotating Fleury/TVR/Gardiner makes sense—but Gardiner needs to be out some as well, because TVR and Fleury have earned the same ice time thus far.
3) Tripp mentioned (I have seen this elsewhere) Aho moving back to wing. If that is open for discussion, why not Haula at wing when he returns. Someone mentioned on another site that Haula hasn’t really produced assists in his career. His goals/assists are almost the same. Having two centers (Staal and Haula) that don’t create goals for their wingers is a problem. However, Haula is a terrific net-front presence. Some very successful wingers have that quality—JVR, James Neal. So when everyone is healthy I would love to see:
Haula/Aho/Svech
Niederreiter/Staal/TT
Dzingel/Wallmark/Necas
Foegele or McGinn/Luostarinen/Martinook
There is always talk about “earning” your role—well both Wallmark and Luostarinen have earned these spots.
The Canes have a whole lot of “meh” in goal. Mzarek has had a few good games, but hasn’t been impressive. Reimer even less so. It’s hard to tell what’s going on in Charlotte since the team isn’t all that great. Ned has been inconsistent. Well, that’s been the tag on him for years. He won’t be a NHL goalie until he ditches that behavior. As far as I’m concerned the Canes are still looking for their long-term solution in goal.
Agree about Gardiner on D. Based upon play alone he belongs in the pressbox. Punting on a guy your signed for 4 years after 18 games is a bit extreme and ensures you are stuck with him for all of those years. Fleury deserves to play. He has done as well as van Reimsdyk and better than Gardiner. Brind’Amour is going to have to come up with some kind of rotation. Happens on a lot of other teams, it’s just a new thing here in Raleigh.
At forward there are a lot of options. One option, Huala, is one that should not be counted upon. He’s a good hockey player, but one that may be permanently damaged. Having too many centermen is a great problem to have. Any of Wallmark, Luostarinen, Huala, or Aho could slide to wing. I just don’t see the upside to Wallmark. Yes, he’s good defensively and wins draws. He’s slow. He isn’t shifty nor big enough to carry the puck with defenders around. He’s a solid guy, but 20-25 point a year guy tops. Luostarinen seems to have a little more to offer. He’s rugged and creates space for linemates. Time will tell, but other than Huala’s injury these are good problems.
Oh, left this out, no way does Jake Bean deserve any kind of NHL tryout. I don’t care how many points he scores in the AHL he hasn’t shown a hint of the game it would take for him to succeed in the NHL.
1. ct is absolutely correct about Ned – his play has been very high-end the past 3 games. But that still doesn’t answer the question on what to about Reimer. I think the O/M/C will have a large enough sample size and Reimer will have enough opportunities to prove himself.
I could see Forsberg and Reimer flipping locations, leading up to a Binnington-type opportunity for Ned after the New Year – but that is really just idle speculation.
2. If LeBrun is accurate, the Canes are continuing to look to trade D for a top-9 F. That will clear up the logjam.
I really like to see that Fleury is so good on his off-side. That is going to give him the opportunity to step in as needed and is going to be really important to him.
I don’t see Bean coming up for an audition – I see him coming up to NHL ice only if needed due to injury. But I also think Priskie is showing more NHL potential right now than Bean.
3. To me when it comes to the forwards it is what to do with Nino and what to do with Staal. Nino has been getting high-quality chances (including last night) but his shooting % is atrocious. Staal is really becoming a pure possession center – but we have one too many scorers so one of them has to play on Staal’s wing.
I think lts is going to prove to be correct about Haula – although I hope he and I are wrong. Gibbons goes back down when Martinook is back and Marty can play center. But that leaves us 4 center possibilities (Staal, Wallmark, Marty, Luostarinen) who are not gifted at a high level offensively.
I do like Eetu a lot – with Haula’s return he will go back to CLT and probably tear up the league and be ready to return to the NHL at a much higher level later this year or next. But I don’t think he will prove to be part of the solution this year.
Luostarinen gets sent back to CLT.
http://gocheckers.com/articles/transactions/carolina-assigns-eetu-luostarinen-to-charlotte
No indication if that means Martinook may be ready.
Good points by all.
RB will have some decisions to make as will mgmt.
Fleury has played better this year than he ever has. Maybe it is Eddie or Gardiner helping him but you can see he has stepped it up. He still has a ways to go but for a 6 or 7 D making only about 850k & being a RFA, it is someone you hate to lose if he is improving.
TVR, on the other hand, is at his peak. He is solid most of the time but hasn’t played as well this year. Not sure if it is rust or surgery affecting him. However, since he is a UFA at the end of the season, and I don’t think we will re-sign him, he should probably be traded for the top 9 forward we need. Fleury would play his spot this year & Priskie will probably be penciled into it next year. TVR & a 2nd or 3rd should bring a nice return.
Staal is a great 3C but that is where RB needs to play him. He has been over slotted his whole time with the Canes. He is great at everything but scoring. Your top 2 centers need to score & produce on a consistent basis meaning Aho & Haula should be given the elite scorers on their wings & play them top 6 minutes. However RB is stubborn to continue to put scoring wingers with Staal which gives them a disadvantage to create quality chances. Put the hustle & grind guys with him & let them drive the other team’s top scorers crazy with physical & defensive play.
I think our top 6 should be in no particular order: Aho, Svech, TT, Haula, Necas, Dzingle. NN can swap out when needed but he can also play that physical & irritating D with Staal & Foegele.
Really like what I saw from Eetu. If he keeps developing at that pace this year he will take Wally’s spot or if RB moves him to wing he could be up even sooner. If he really turns it on & learns quick from some NHL games, we may not need that top 9 forward trade, especially if Goat is playing well also.
As far as goalies go: really wish they would have made a better effort to sign Mac. We had it good last year. This year it is a crap shoot after Petr. Reimer is too expensive to keep for the way he is playing. Ned is not there yet & has not been proven. Forsberg has some experience but doesn’t have the numbers to give you confidence starting him. Roll the dice is about all we have right now. Hope Kochetkov develops quick.