Happy Martin Luther King Day! I hope that everyone who has the day off enjoys it and also that everyone pauses for a moment to consider what Martin Luther King stood for and accomplished.
Over the past couple weeks, the Carolina Hurricanes have been a newsworthy bunch. We are now multiple weeks deep into the team being regularly mentioned in the trade rumor mills that are starting to kick up with the trade deadline just over a month away.
To no surprise, the Hurricanes are allegedly open to trading a right shot defenseman to add a forward. But the bigger news has been rumors and rumblings that impending free agent Micheal Ferland could be on the trade block. Elliotte Friedman has mentioned Ferland a couple times as have others.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe looks at the Micheal Ferland situation from multiple angles.
Micheal Ferland’s contract situation and trade value
Ferland is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent on July 1, so if the Hurricanes keep him but do not re-sign him, they run the risk of losing him or nothing to free agency on our after July 1.
His current contract is only $1.75 million. That number could be relevant to the situation in two ways. First, that low salary cap amount should be a positive for trade value. That amount should fit into even the tightest of salary cap budgets which could boost the return if the Hurricanes choose to trade him. Second, the low salary makes it more likely that he goes for the maximum payday next summer which likely means testing free agency. As a player who is not old but not young at 26 years old and who plays a rugged style that could result in injuries, this summer could be his only chance for a big contract in terms of yearly salary and term.
Especially once the low salary is factored in, Ferland will be one of the top forwards available if he is in fact on the trade market when the trade deadline comes. It is not out of the question that he could garner a first round draft pick plus even something else.
Micheal Ferland’s history
Despite being 26 year old, Ferland is only in his fifth season in the NHL. He played only 26 games in his rookie season. The next two seasons saw his scoring at the NHL level develop modestly. He had 18 points and then 25 points in his first two full NHL seasons. Then he had a break out of sorts during the 2017-18 season with 41 points. But the season was really more of a tale of two halves. During the first half of 2017-18, Ferland surged playing with Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan. But then he faded down the stretch and finished with a modest 21 goals and 41 points in 77 games. So prior to the current season, Ferland had had exactly half of one season where he looked to be more than a physical depth forward.
Micheal Ferland with the Hurricanes
Ferland seemed to hit the ground running playing on Sebastian Aho’s scoring line with Teuvo Teravainen. Through 24 games, Ferland had 11 goals. Simple math suggested that he could push up to 30-40 goals which is very clearly something that the Hurricanes need. But maybe more significant than goal scoring statistics, Ferland is a strong complementary player for a scoring line. He brings a power forward element to Aho’s line. Ferland also meshes skill set-wise. Whereas Aho and Teravainen tend to do the heavy lifting in terms of distributing the puck, Ferland brings a power forward element that can attract attention and create space. He also has good hands and good receive/finish skills such that he can be effective and score without playing much with the puck on his stick. That last part is important in terms of meshing with Aho and Teravainen.
In that regard, the goal-scoring version of Ferland is the type of player that the Hurricanes very much need with his size and efficiency scoring without needing to have the puck much to do so. So if one could guarantee Canes Ferland 1.0 from the first one-third of the season, it would be a no-brainer to re-sign him.
Risk
But Ferland is not guaranteed to replicate the highs of his career thus far. When one considers the math above, he has exactly two stretches of hockey and a total of about 60-70 games performing as a top forward. He surged during the first half of the 2017-18 season, and he also surged briefly at the start of the 2018-19 season.
So if Ferland is looking to capitalize on one big payday in the neighborhood of $6-7 million per year for a 5-6-year term, the raise would be sizable. And I think this is where I think many do not get Ferland’s risk on a long-term contract. The potential is certainly there for Ferland to deteriorate to being just a capable third-liner. If that occurs, a $6-7 million salary per year will be a gross overpayment for a third or fourth line player. And with the Hurricanes cost structure going forward, the team could need this salary cap budget to keep other key players in the mix.
His cost
If he gets paid as a top 6 scoring forward, Ferland’s salary would probably clock in at $6-8 million per year for six years. But if instead, Ferland’s next contract has him slotted into more of a depth role with less scoring, then his salary could drop to $3-6 million per year. Therein lies the complexity and risk with Ferland’s next contract. If he signs for 6 years for $6 million or more annually, he really needs to stick in a top 6 role and maintain a top 6 scoring pace.
The Nino Niederreiter factor
Ferland’s value to the Hurricanes could also be affected by how well newly-acquired Nino Niederreiter plays down the stretch. At least at a top level, Ferland and Niederreiter are similar players as power forwards who can score. So if Niederreiter slides up onto a top scoring line and Ferland instead slides down and both players score accordingly, Niederreiter could effectively replace Ferland and make him available for trade.
Where do I land?
1–First, I do not feel comfortable signing Ferland to a contract with more than a few years of term just because of the risk with his track record. Per what I said above, I just think that the broader population too much considers Ferland a sure thing after 40-ish game and then 25-ish game surges.
2–This might sound odd, but I would actually rather pay more salary and not take on full term. If possible (and it might not be), I would sign Ferland to a three-year deal at $6 or even $6.5 million per year before I signed him to a long-term deal spanning more than 5 years even if the price is lower.
3–Though Niederreiter does make it a bit easier to let Ferland go, I do not see Niederreiter’s arrival as making Ferland obsolete. The Hurricanes could actually use two scoring power forwards.
4–So at 5-6 years at $6.5 million or more, I would be begrudgingly consider trading him versus taking on maximum risk with this contract.
5–But at a lower price, I like Ferland as the type of player the Hurricanes need to boost scoring.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Given Ferland’s track record, what level of risk do you place on signing Ferland to a long-term contract?
2) Do you see Nino Niederreiter as a potential replacement for Ferland?
3) What term and yearly salary would you be comfortable with to keep Ferland in the mix going forward?
Go Canes!
Good analysis.
As I said on the recap blog I think Lucic is an example of what can happen if you overpay for a rugged player, especially on a long-term contract.
I’d like Car to secure Ferland’s services at anywhere between 3 and 5 mill, but at over 5 mill the Canes should trade him and see what they can get.
Svech has some of the aspect of a tough forward, Martinook can probably be resigned for a bit less than 5 mill, hopefully 3.5 mill, and Nino has some of the desired skillset as well.
Finally, there is a chance Gauthier might develop into a Ferland type player in the next couple of years.
Adam Gold speculates that Ferland may be dealing with concussion symptoms, which may make it difficult to trade him. If he recovers and the canes intend to trade him they should do it soon to minimize the risk.
I’d suggest keeping Ferland out until after the allstar break, maybe bring Gauthier up to play on the last two games of the road trip to see how he fares against higher competition.
Not because hs is the most deserving checker but because I think it’s important to get a read on his development trijectory and the chances he can assume a power forward with some scoring role in the next year or two.
breezy made most of my points in this and the other thread. I do think it is likely too late to make the playoffs. If I am wrong, I won’t be at playoff game one, but I have promised my son we will be at game 82 if the Canes are playing for a spot in the playoffs.
The point about overpaying for Ferland shouldn’t be ignored. Ferland is a good player–whose backstory makes me hope he cashes out–but his contributions need to be put in perspective. Ferland’s first three-point game came in his 287th game. Wallmark’s in his 67th. While Wallmark’s included an empty-net goal, Ferland’s was produced when all three goals were oopses. My point being that Ferland is a solid 45-point forward who is hard to play against. He is worth $4M-$4.5M for 3-4 years. More than that risks having a contract that causes cap concerns. Because as unbelievable as it sounds, in 3-4 years the Canes could have four players (Aho, Teravainen, Svechnikov, Necas) who have earned significant contracts. In fact, next season Aho and Teravainen are going to cost around $14M. Even trading one of Faulk/Hamilton, the defense will have four contracts more than $4M each. One or two potential high-end offensive defensemen, Bean and/or Fox, will be up for contracts around the same time as Necas. Paying Ferland $5M for six years is a risk with a lot of downside.
I said when the Niederreiter trade occurred that Aho could help NN to career numbers. The Canes have no choice but to build around Aho/Svechnikov/Teravainen (and hopefully Necas). While I hope Ferland is part of that building, the current numbers being rumored make it a bad bet.
Ferland is most definitely the type of player we need – plays off the puck, with finishing skill, rugged, even menacing. He is our version of Tom Wilson and every team in the league that doesn’t have one is looking for their own version of Tom Wilson. NN is not that player so I don’t view him as a replacement; maybe just a partial hedge. That’s what makes Ferland so valuable. I’m sold on the skill-set and his value. We should do everything we can to keep him.
The flip side is that, to Matt’s point, he hasn’t really produced all that much and that consistently over his career – two 1/2 season bursts. Further, his playing style tends to lead to injury and I wonder how available he’ll be over the course of a longer contract. He’s only a useful player when he’s playing, which hasn’t been often enough for me this season, and it’s trending in the wrong direction.
It’s the term that concerns me more than AAV, though at some price that, too, becomes too much to pay. I’d like to stay at three years but might be pressed to go to four at the right price. Anything north of 3-4 x $6m seems like too much risk to me.
(I’m not sold on the thinking that we couldn’t squeeze in another high-end salary even with the other RFA’s we need to sign. The Cap is likely to increase over time and not all the players we think we’ll have to pay will work out.)
All that said, I think Ferland is the one who controls what happens here. If he is determined to test the market to get more term or a higher AAV than we’re comfortable offering because he views this next contract as his “once in a lifetime opportunity” – and who could blame his for that – then we have to make him available and take the best deal, especially if it’s a 1st+.
This is probably the best analysis of the situation that I’ve read. Well done. I’ve been mostly for re-signing Ferland, but you lay out a compelling case against (especially given what it sounds like he wants).
I do hope that management gives this team through Feb 16th before making any moves. They play 9 games in first 16 days of Feb, and if they can’t climb back near wildcard then move Ferland, a goaltender (both?), Williams, and Martinook. Get whatever they can. If the team is in striking distance, I hope they give them a shot to make a run.
What to do about Michael Ferland? So many things to consider. We don’t want to make the same mistakes the Oilers made with Lucic.
But then again, what were those mistakes? Were they mistakes?
When Lucic left the LA Kings, he was 29 years old. He had scored 25 goals and 35 assists that season. He was coveted by most GMs (those who were not enchanted with the “new NHL” ideal of fast, weak, under-sized players).
But Chiarelli had two unique perspectives; 1) Chiarelli was the GM in Boston when Lucic played there. He knew what he was getting, 2) Chiarelli saw what he had with McDavid. All of Albera Province was up in arms at what had been done to McDavid by Flyers defenseman Manning the previous season; breaking his collarbone and putting him on the sidelines for a major part of the season.
I say all of this because it is important to remember why Edmonton did what it did in order to secure the services of Milan Lucic.
They didn’t care much about his 25 goal performance. They knew that it was crazy to sign a 29 year old player to a 7 year contract. Lucic’s agent served his client well in playing on the desperation among the Edmonton hockey family to insure against injuries that would shorten the career of the “Franchise”, Connor McDavid.
Once it became apparent that McDavid’s safety was assured, many eyes turned to Lucic’s lack of scoring. As if he was being paid 6 million dollars a year to score a bunch of goals.
How soon they forget. And forget they do.
Tom Wilson will suffer a similar fate. Fortunately for him, both his AAV and term are less. He is much younger than Lucic was when he signed his contract. His agent wasn’t as skillful as was Lucic’s agent. But everything else was present. Wilson is there to protect the “Franchise”, Alex Ovechkin.
I am certain that Waddell and Dundon had the same concern when they were negotiating the deal with Calgary. They wanted Ferland.
Ronnie had selected several highly skilled, undersized players in building his Canes team. He had not, however, provided for their protection. Aho and Teravainen need protection. So will Necas and Fox. We have learned the lessons of Willis, Tenabe, and Skinner (I hope).
I fear, however, that the lingering effects of Ferland’s concussion may make all of our discussions moot. I fervently hope that is not the case.
If he returns to health, I hope we don’t kid ourselves as to why we are paying him. And I hope we don’t forget later.
First, Niedereiter is already an upgrade and replacement for Victor Rask. He cannot simultaneously be the replacement for Ferland.
Second, The rebuild (and return to the playoffs) is clearly at least a year longer than hoped. Simplified, the Ferland question is: Were he a UFA now would you court him to sign him? Would he fit in the rebuild plan as part of your core top 6?
Third, If he is considered core top 6, what is the plan to replace him should he be sold at the deadline? Should we have any realistic hope there is a plan to replace Ferland given our experience following the lose of EStaal or Skinner?
Fourth, There are contractual solutions to the risk reward curve for a player like Ferland. (Basically do it exactly opposite of Lucic’s deal). Front load the deal with decreasing salary over time. Avoid NTCs and NMCs. Effectively build both continued trade-ability and the contingency of a possible buy out into the deal. The AAV of Elias Linholm’s deal might be a good comparable for both parties.
Fifth, when you ask a player to be a “wrecking ball” and effectively shorten his shelf life as a player he should expect to be compensated for that sacrifice. You can expect to him walk away from any offer that does not recognize that fact.
I really like the formulation of: if he were a UFA, would you court and sign him at 3×6 or whatever? Is he on the short/high-priority list? Because, actually, even though he is on our roster, that is exactly the situation.
There is also an opportunity cost for re-signing Ferland vs. selling at the deadline. That cost is the players that would have been received in return for his trade. This makes his re-signing exactly the same as acquiring him at the deadline. While I understand the high level of pessimism regarding the risk in signing him to a longer term contract there is also the reality that any quality UFA will have a similar risk/ reward equation. We have 40 games of experience with Ferland, certainly enough to make an educated decision regarding his worth to the team. The “committee” has a complicated decision to make regarding Ferland. I expect both parties will have lots of discussions with lots of teams to determine his actual market value during the long break during the All-Star game.
If we re-sign Ferland then I’d be happy. But extending Ferland for long term/high AAV would be risky in my opinion because he does not have enough of a track record and his style of play can lead to injury more often. Max I would offer is 3 years and I highly doubt Ferland will accept that term.
Some team is going to overpay for Ferland by the deadline. Waddell has made some savvy trades with Nino and Martinook…and I believe the whole of this team will be more than the sum of it’s parts. So if Ferland is asking for too much, I’m sure we can find another gem that will compliment the team’s build.
Matt – you mention $6-8M for him which I think is much higher than his ask (and definitely get). I am expecting – and have read some amongst the rumor-moners that he is looking for %-6 at 5-6. And that makes your short-term/high-dollar number more intriguing. If he is looking for 25-30 over 5-6 years, would he consider 19-20 over 3 years?
But I do think he is a long-term risk – witness the angst in EDM over Lucic, and the bouncing (lower piad) puck that is Maroon.
I really like Ferland’s style of play – physical with heavy (but clean) hits and willing to drop the gloves to amp the energy (although I haven’t see player protection yet, presumably it would be there) – but he is not a Tom Wilson goon. Nor is he really a scorer except when he lined up with two high-ened playmaking scorers (Gaudreau/Monahan, Aho/Turbo). He has proven himself to be a much lesser player when he is not so slotted.
If we were in playoff contention I would be more inclined to say keep him even if we don’t re-sign him; he would be invaluable for a playoff push to this team. Afterwards let chips fall where they will.
Ferland is looking to be overpaid in his contract – and good for him.
But I think Turbo’s signing at 5×5.4 has to set a ceiling – I can’t see Ferland, on a relative scale, worthy of more than 4.5 to 5 on this team. But, again, I find the short-term, high overpayment suggestion intriguiing – just very unlikely to happen.
BTW, Nino is very very different – but slots well as a physical scorer; I think he will be great in CAR in that role – I can’t say the same for Ferland.
I think a lot of it just comes down to what Ferland is willing to accept to play with the Canes.
As I’ve grumbled about before, if you have 3 million in the bank you can get a 100 grand of interest for life, with little to no risk, so to me the difference between making 5 and 7 million over a period of 3 or 4 years is just ridiculously unimportant.
Sadly we think of the players as normal people who truly need to maximize their income to sustain themselves, their families and build a safe and secure retirement. For players making multi-million dollar salaries guaranteed for years this is a different equation altogether.
I think any player with integrity should not solely think of the max dollars they can earn, they should think about winning and doing their part to building a legacy on a winning team, for themselves and the fans.
This is the thing that really ticked me off about Nylander and frankly why I have little to no interest seeing him in Carolina. The player was so obsessed with maximizing his salary that he effectively sacrificed his season and his reputation as a top player and massively failed his team in the process.
Tor is suffering right now and Nylander has been demoted to the 4th line.
If Ferland has integrity and honesty as a player he should accept a dal of 4 to 4.5 mill for 3 to 4 years with carolina, to continue the job he was brought in here to do. I think TT could have held out for more but he did, in my opinion, the right thing, showed that he cares, and he is willing to commit to this team, not just himself.
If ferland is such a player and is willing to accept reasonable salary to help ownership build a playoff and even a cup contender here, I want him on this team.
If he is solely focused on maximizing his money, I don’t think he will be a good team player down the road and we might as well trade him for other players that could help, based on what other teams are willing to offer.
Let’s look at the Oilers again.
4 Oilers have scored more than 6 goals this season, 4. MacDavid and Drasaitl are making fat dough, but I really doubt they are enjoying playing hockey right now. They are in the midst of a downward spiral, the fans are mad, and their season is slipping away, again.
Sadly we are not doing much better, but we do not have the biggest super star 12.5 million dollar hockey player and we have not gone through 6 or 7 top 3 picks in the last decade.
Anyways I think it is simple. Ferland can accept a 4.5 mill deal for 4 years, I think it’s a great deal, I think he will be a great player and a part of what we hope will finally be the reemergence of our team, or he can go and maximize his income elsewhere.
OF course this assumes ownership is offering him something in the 4 to 4.5 mill range, which I think is fair (with all my hockey insider knowledge). Hey at least matt thinks in the same ballpark as do I so there must be something to those numbers.
I’d happily pay for him in either term or money, but not both. He’s still on the young side even for a power forward so despite playing an injury prone style of game it’s unlikely he’ll see any major slowing down in the next few years. Begrudgingly is exactly how I’d trade him if it looks like he’s asking for something that would put us into cap hell once Svech and Necas are looking at contracts (assuming they succeed as expected).
More than anything I wish we knew Aho’s number for the next contract because there are so many question marks next to names (Which D salary is traded away? Does Williams come back and is it at a team-friendly discount?…) that it’s tough to look at next year much lessdown the line.