With the Carolina Hurricanes currently on the outside looking in on the playoff chase and the trade deadline now less than eight weeks away, the team could be forced to at least consider a number of contract situations well before the off-season arrives.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe considers the players with contracts that end after the 2018-19 season and what the team should do in each case.
Part of the core
Sebastian Aho
At only 21 years old and currently leading the offense and on track for more than 80 points, Sebastian Aho is no doubt a part of the team’s core going forward. He is scheduled to become a restricted free agent this summer. Though there was a time when $6-7 million might have been possible his scoring totals are increasing the salary for his next contract. I now view $7 million as the low end of what it costs for Aho’s next deal with the potential for that amount to grow. But regardless of price, the Hurricanes need to do the obvious thing and commit to Aho with a long-term deal.
Next contract: Whatever it takes, but anything less than $8 million per year would be fair.
High-end complementary players
Teuvo Teravainen
The player that I have called Robin to Aho’s Batman is also up for a new contract. In my opinion, the gap between Aho and Teravainen is wider than the modest point total difference would indicate. I view Teravainen as first line capable but importantly as a complementary player and not the player that drives such a line like Aho does. That could make it tricky to figure out price for Aho’s next contract. Especially given his chemistry with Aho who should be inked into the lineup for many years, Teravainen is definitely a player worth re-signing. But though I would pay Aho $8 million annually, I would not go close to that number for Teravainen. I think he fits at a lower price and a lower term. Teravainen is a restricted free agent with arbitration rights. As such, the Hurricanes control his rights into the off-season which means nothing needs to be done by the trade deadline.
Next contract: 5 years at $5.5 million per year.
Micheal Ferland
Though their styles are different, I put Micheal Ferland roughly in the same category as Teravainen as a player who is capable of playing on a top line, has fared well in exactly that role (at times) in 2018-19 but just is not in the same category as Aho. Significantly, Ferland provides size and more of a power forward type of scorer. The Hurricanes are light in this area, and Ferland looked good in that role playing with Aho. As such, the team would love to have Ferland back, but at what price? As with Teravainen, I would not risk a huge money and maximum or near maximum term on Ferland. But a key difference versus Teravainen is that Ferland is an unrestricted free agent who can go anywhere starting on July 1. As such, the Hurricanes are best off figuring out his long-term whereabouts by the trade deadline and acting accordingly. I would offer Ferland a contract in term of amount similar to Teravainen’s and be willing to stretch a bit to lock in a type of player that the team lacks.
Next contract: Would pay $5-5.5 million per year, but ideally for only 3-4 years. If he wants maximum dollars $6 million plus and maximum term of 6-7 years, I begrudgingly pass and trade him at the trade deadline.
A unique situation
Justin Williams
Justin Williams is an interesting situation. At 38 years old starting the 2019-20 season, it is doubtful that Williams will see a scoring resurgence higher than his current 40ish-point pace. That simple look at scoring production would put Williams in roughly a third line role for which his current $4.5 million salary is too much. But then he is also the team’s captain, so how much can you try to dicker on price? I think a modest pay cut to $3-3.5 million on a one-year deal possibly stretching to two is fair for both sides.
Next contract: I think the Hurricanes pay for leadership and continuity and re-sign Williams for one or two years for $3.2 million yearly.
Right-priced depth
Jordan Martinook
Like Ferland, Jordan Martinook is another newly-acquired player who has transitioned and meshed well with the Hurricanes. His current contract for $1.8 million is a modest premium for a good fourth-liner. If he pushes up close to 20 goals as he is on pace for right now, he starts to be able to make a case for being a third-liner which is really more the role that he has filled so far in 2018-19. I liken Martinook for being an extra captain and would be willing to pay a modest premium to keep him in the fold in that role. But if he wants significant term or too much of a price increase, I would let him go.
Next contract: I would do two years or possibly three years at a price of $2-2.25 million per year. A good fourth-liner (which is what I think Martinook is on a deeper team) is still a fourth-liner, so I would begrudgingly trade him at the trade deadline if his demands are higher based on his 2018-19 goal scoring.
Brock McGinn
McGinn is a restricted free agent with arbitration rights, but because of his scoring woes in 2018-19 McGinn will not garner a significant raise. As such, I view him as being capable depth at least until more of the Hurricanes forward prospects develop. Unless McGinn’s season turns around, I would be willing to give McGinn a small raise on a one-way deal for one year.
Next contract: One year at $950,000
Haydn Fleury
Thus far, Fleury has not lived up to his draft pedigree, but he has grown to become a serviceable #6/#7 defenseman potentially with upside from there since he is only 22 years old. As with McGinn, Fleury’s lack of offensive production and depth role in 2018-19 should keep his price down. Because even aging and mediocre blue line depth can cost north of $1 million per year, I would consider signing Fleury for a couple years to buy time for the next generation of defensemen to arrive and establish themselves.
Next contract: Two years at $1.1 million per year.
Clark Bishop
Bishop is a restricted free agent coming off of a two-year contract. He is gradually becoming a regular in the Hurricanes lineup, but I still think the team is best off keeping its flexibility by signing Bishop to a two-way contract if possible.
Next contract: One year at $950,000 on a two-way deal.
The goalie predicament
For multiple years now, the Hurricanes have been trying to right the ship goaltending-wise. Through 39 games of the 2018-19 season, that has actually happened. But as luck would have it, both Canes goalies still at the NHL level are scheduled to become unrestricted free agents. That puts the pressure on the Canes brain trust to figure out which to keep and which to consider trading at the NHL trade deadline.
Petr Mrazek
If Mrazek can continue the 2018-19 season on the same pace, he will have played his way into consideration another contract and a starting role. And if Mrazek can continue to do that, I would be willing to offer him a short-term deal with a bias toward over-committing a bit on price but not on term.
Next contract: Three years at $3-3.5 million yearly.
Curtis McElhinney
First let me say that I would be perfectly happy to have McElhinney return. But at 35 years old, I do not see him as part of the long-term solution. With that being the case, if he continues his strong season, he could have value to a Cup contender with an injury at goalie. But if the market for McElhinney is but a really late draft pick, I would consider keeping him and trying to work out a next deal.
Next contract: If there is a market for him, I think he gets traded. If the market is light, then I think the Hurricanes might lean forward a bit and offer him a raise on a one year or at most two-year deal.
Netting it out
I think Aho is a no-brainer and also that Teravainen is the next player to be re-signed. I also think Fleury and McGinn are all but certain to be re-signed because they provide needed depth at a near minimum salary. Bishop is also nearly a sure thing to be re-signed if the team can use its leverage to give him another two-way contract. Finally, I think Martinook who has just been a great fit will demand and receive a modest premium to his current contract and will receive it to stay in the fold.
Then things get complicated. I think Ferland is the most likely to use his free agent status next summer to pursue a maximum contract next summer. I put the odds at 50/50 that he is re-signed. I also think Williams’ situation is interesting. I view him as needing to take a pay cut, but if he tries to use his leverage as the captain, the gap between what is fair based on scoring and what he asks for could be sizable.
As for the goalie situation, if Mrazek keeps playing at his current level, I think the team will re-sign him possibly even before the trade deadline. If there is a market for a backup goalie at the trade deadline, I think the Canes could part ways with McElhinney simply because his age does not make him a great option for the long-term.
My expectations have the team passing on some trade value to re-sign players. Because I fear it will be difficult to lure high-end free agents to Raleigh next summer if the current trajectory continues, I think that it is a smart move to forego modest trade futures and do exactly this. But if instead the team goes full Ron Francis and collects what it can from unrestricted free agents, the team team has five unrestricted free agents in Ferland, Martinook, Williams, Mrazek and McElhinney.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Which of the free agents do you think the Hurricanes will ultimately retain for the 2019-20 season?
2) For Ferland and Teravainen, what are your maximum and expected yearly salaries for these deals?
3) What would you do with the two impending unrestricted free agent goalies?
Go Canes!
1) Aho, Teravainen, Martinook, Bishop, Fleury, McGinn, Mrazek. I leave off Ferland–see my comments under 2.
2) Matt. I understand the difference between a RFA and a UFA. However, there is a common belief (I dare say it approaching a meme) that Ferland is equivalent to Teravainen. The truth is he is equivalent to Martinook. Just last year many (you were a voice of some reason) argued that Lindholm didn’t deserve $5M. Most people say his success is because he is playing with Gaudreau and Monahan. Well, Ferland played with them last season and scored at less than half the rate. I think most of us would be comfortable saying Teravainen is close to Lindholm’s level–if management treats him like Lindholm/Hanifin and trades him instead of paying the $5.8M he is worth, he will be on another team having a career year. If others don’t believe that argument, how about this: Ferland has 6 even strength goals this season. Martinook has 8. Martinook is a key to a much improved penalty kill the past 25 games. Yet you are arguing that Ferland is a first liner worthy $5M+ and Martinook is a “fourth line” player worth $2.5M. You have mentioned that Martinook is often the player who makes a big hit at the necessary time. So even in the one area where Ferland is obviously more valuable, it is close.
I love Ferland’s story and think he deserves to get as much money as possible out of an owner–including the Canes’ owner. But from a hockey standpoint, the Ferland = Teravainen argument misses too many points of serious analysis.
3) If the Canes aren’t in the playoff picture by Feb. 1, then I would trade whichever goalie brings the highest return.
I couldn’t agree more with ct on #1/#2. Ferland is much more like Martinook than TT. There will be a market for Ferland – many bubble teams need more secondary scoring – and I would be reluctant to pay him $5m/yr so I trade him if he wants to test the market to try and get that.
As for the goalie situation, I’m on record as saying that I start talking to Mrazek after a few more weeks of continued play like this and offer up a Carter Hutton-like contract – which is what Matt’s proposed. If we make no headway because he wants to test the market, reluctantly, we have to trade him. I love Mac and his story and would like him to stay one more year but he’s a nice trade chip, too.
I’m looking at TOR now and betting there is a deal to be done there and soon given their goaltending situation. I’d try to pry Kapanen from them using Mac and/or a d-man.
I think we are going to learn a lot about how O/M handle the contract negotiation business this year so I don’t want to speculate on term/money; I simply plan to observe.
I do hope that we sign Martinook. He offers solid depth scoring, physicality, he has a great presence in the locker room (apparently) and he is great with the young players, particularly Svech.
I think Ferland is showing with the Canes that he is a different player when on a line with top players then on a different line. Apparently we are far apart on contract talks so it is seems that )/M is valuing him closer to ct and dmilleravid. I don’t expect that we will re-sign him.
We should make a good faith effort to sign Mrazek but I think the lure of free agency will be too strong for him to want to sign prior to June. Then you really need to trade him (assuming we are sellers at the deadline) and ride Mac the rest of the way (assuming that Mrazek nets a higher level of interest).
This is the problem I have with people who live and die by stats. That’s all these players are to them. Plug and play. C’mon guys!
Ferland, Aho, and TT. They are a unit. Apart, they don’t perform nearly as well as they perform when together.
Ferland, Martinook, and Williams are what players refer to as “glue guys”. The human factor cannot be ignored. Not if you want to win.
Our goalkeeping? Are you guys crazy? We have a winning combo. Why would we want to break it up over a few million dollars?
Look around the league. Several teams are looking for goalkeepers. Vancouver just traded with Ottawa to get Mike McKenna. Just a couple of days ago. Today the Flyers picked him up off waivers. Teams are desperate. We need to sign both of our keepers.
This summer we will see if Tom D has the chops to be an owner in the NHL. He will need to be willing to pay for winners.
pwrlss, I agree that there some guys are bricks and some guys are mortar and it takes both to field a winning team. Ferland is a player I’d like to keep; I’m just not willing to keep him at any cost.
Having said that, have I mentioned recently how much I wanted to keep Lindholm this past offseason?
Amen!
pwrlss, agree with your arguments. I don’t disagree with the dollars being thrown around by anyone, but I am concerned when we start talking contract length. We have to be careful on how long a deal players get and only give long term deal (longer than 3-4 years) to players who have played at a CONSISTENTLY high level to earn them. The resolution of the goaltending situation for me starts with an accurate appraisal of how far along Caleb Booth or Ned has progressed. Is one of them at least ready for the NHL as a backup?
RR – Booth has only played a handful of games at the AHL level – currently he is with Reading in the ECHL. At his best, Ned is ready. When not at his best he has been pulled 3x this season.
And you can be sure Ferland is looking to cash in – money and term – based on his 20-goal season last season, and his start – at least – to this season.
Yes, TD’s real intensions with this team are about to be revealed. Is he in it to make money on a resale, or is he in it to build a winning sports team. I’m not accusing him of either, just saying that his record so far is inconclusive, but it won’t be after this offseason.
Aho, no questions asked, in fact he should’ve been signed last summer, I’m sure he could’ve been resigned for a lot less than his camp will be asking now.
Martinook, a no brainer, best under-the-radar pickup of the summer, that’s where I tip my hat to management, as much as I’ve criticized them for other activities.
I hope TT can be resigned for a workable deal, he’s got a combination of skills and smarts that mesh really well with Aho, I am hoping the chance of them playing together may help sign both of them for something reasonable. If not, he must be traded, I’d go as far as 6M for 3 to 4 years on TT, not much mor.
This team is better with Ferland on the ice than without. We need at least two big guys with some scoring prowess. In the ideal world Gauthier will become that guy as early as next season, but Ferland at 5 to 6M per for 3 years is not the worst deal the Canes can make.
McGinn, he’s not at the reported Fleury level of utter incompetence (insert tongue in cheek) but I think he is the most replaceable player of the bunch. He works hard, hussles, but he is not enough of a difference maker to be anything more than borderline top 13 player. If he resigns at a million or so and we can’t upgrade his position, that’s fine, but I wouldn’t hold out on negotiations with him.
Fleury, keeper as a top 6&7 guy at a top 6&7 salary (1 mill per for 2 years).
Mrasek, resign at 3 to 3.5M per.
Mac, try to work out a deal for 1 to 1.5M per for 2 years.
I really wish theCanes could keep this goalie duo for a couple of seasons, I think that’s another area where management lucked out, especially with Mac, and made some good decisions, but sadly it’s going to be hard to retain both of those guys the way they are playing
The deadline trade scenario depends a lot on where the team is at around the deadline. If it is way out of the playoffs, trade anyone who is not resigned by then or close, even both goalies. The team has nothing to lose(in fact it has things to gain by losing) so put Ned and Booth in net, even Darling and ride them to the end of the season.