One of the biggest off ice NHL news items right now is the continuing hold out of Toronto Maple Leafs forward William Nylander. Nylander is a 22-year old who has already established himself as a legitimate top 6 scorer with 61 points in consecutive seasons. Right now, he is holding out as a restricted free agent and allegedly asking for $8 million per year to sign a long-term deal. Thus far, the Maple Leafs are adamant that they are not considering trading Nylander, but the longer his holdout stretches, the more likely the team will consider other options.
Making the rounds in that regard is the thought that the Hurricanes and their surplus of right shot defensemen could be a possible trade partner and that the target would be Brett Pesce. Pierre LeBrun from The Athletic suggested the Canes as a trade partner and Pesce as a fit in this article (subscription required).
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe considers the merits of that potential trade.
The Maple Leafs predicament
Many in Toronto are too busy working on parade routes to do math right now, but I actually think the Maple Leafs could be in bad place financially long-term. With Tavares in tow for $11 million per year, and Matthews potentially outscoring him, does Matthews command at least a match for Tavares’ $11 million next summer. And then even if the Leafs meet in the middle with William Nylander for $7 million, can get Mitch Marner re-signed for $6 million and see Kasperi Kapanen cool down and only nets $4 million next summer, that adds about $26 million their current salary structure and puts them up in the vicinity of $93 million. And that is before the Leafs try to upgrade their blue line which is still getting by with 37-year old Ron Hainsey in the top four in ice time.
The team is massively top heavy in terms of salary. This can be manageable. The Chicago Blackhawks had a good run shuffling the deck on a yearly basis and having to part ways with players to make the math work, but they did ultimately hit a wall. And the Penguins have similarly been able to intermittently build winners around Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. But important to note about the Penguins and Blackhawks is that both teams won Stanley Cups BEFORE they started bumping up against the salary cap. So they at least knew that had a winning formula and needed to tinker around a successful core. On the other side of the ledger is the dreadful situation in Edmonton where they went top heavy out of necessity before success. Now despite having the best player in the NHL, they seem miles away from building a consistent winner and have very little for budget to try to adjust and improve.
So long story short, I do not see how the math will enable the Leafs to keep all of their young forward core intact. If Dubas looks into the very near future with a calculator in hand, he should see the same and at least start to think about what a slightly reduced core looks like. A trade for Brett Pesce would give up a good player in Nylander, but also simultaneously address a weakness and cut salary by a significant $3 to 4 million. So is Nylander part of a slightly reduced core at $7 or 8 million? Or could he be the first casualty of salary cap challenges? Especially with a seeming need to add another top 4 defenseman, ideally a right shot, does Nylander hit the trade market?
The superficial side of the Carolina Hurricanes situation
At least on the surface, the Hurricanes are a perfect trade partner. The team is stacked on the blue line and four deep on the right side with Dougie Hamilton, Brett Pesce, Justin Faulk and Trevor van Riemsdyk. In that regard, the Hurricanes could let go of a right shot defenseman and still be able to fill three slots. In addition, at least if the Hurricanes want to jump start the seemingly accelerating rebuild, the team could use another legitimate scorer or two. So at that high level, a trade with Brett Pesce and William Nylander as the principal components makes sense for both teams.
But at a deeper level…
But at a deeper level, I think the situation is more complicated. A built in assumption in declaring Brett Pesce expendable is that he and Justin Faulk or more or less interchangeable. In my opinion, nothing could be further from the truth. Though unspectacular offensively in his young NHL career, Pesce has been arguably the Hurricanes steadiest defender over the past couple seasons. Meanwhile, the defensive part of Faulk’s game has dipped over the past couple years to the point where I have him pegged as an offensively capable #5 who really should not be in the line of fire defensively in a top 4 role. There are obviously different opinions on that, but if you take my assertion as correct, then trading Pesce almost puts the Hurricanes back to square one as being short one top 4 defenseman.
So once I dig beneath the surface, I just see a Brett Pesce for William Nylander deal is filling one hole but at the same time creating another.
Money matters
In addition, the money matters. Brett Pesce has established himself as a steady even if so far offensively unspectacular top 4 defenseman. He is 23 years old and signed for five more years through his prime for only $4 million per year. By any measure that is a bargain if he continues to be a capable top 4 defenseman. If you take at face value the rumors and rumblings that Nylander is asking for $8 million or more for a long-term deal, that is not outlandish, but that reaches up pretty close to the high rent district. Maybe Nylander is worth $8 million or more per year, but the chances of him being a bargain at that price are slim. With the Hurricanes sitting at the very bottom of the league in terms of 2018-19 salary, some might argue that the few million dollars do not matter. But I think that is shortsighted. With Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen scheduled to be re-signed next summer and players like Andrei Svechnikov, Warren Foegele and other rising youngsters in the pipeline, the Hurricanes could be tracking only a couple years behind the Maple Leafs in terms of facing salary cap issues because of good young players rising up. If that proves to be true, Pesce and his modest $4 million salary will be a significant benefit. In addition, Nylander’s next contract will be a comparable for Teravainen and Aho regardless, but if Nylander were to sign with the Hurricanes, that could escalate the cost of Aho and Teravainen’s next deals.
Netting it out – Would I do the deal?
In a word, no. I like William Nylander and also the prospect of adding another higher-end young forward to the mix, but I still would not trade Brett Pesce for William Nylander.
The primary reason is because I think it leaves the Hurricanes one short on defense and related to that I just am not in the long-term Justin Faulk camp.
But what I would do is market Justin Faulk really hard to the Maple Leafs right now. If I could do a deal that included Faulk plus even significant futures to make the deal happen, I would do it in a heartbeat. Further, if Leafs general manager Kyle Dubas is intent on keeping Nylander but is now feeling an even greater pinch in terms of making the math work, I would also pitch a deal with Justin Faulk and Nazem Kadri as the principals. Kadri’s $4.5 million salary is not unreasonable, but just maybe if Dubas needs to cut something and really wants to keep the young guns, then Kadri becomes expendable to upgrade on defense without paying the full cost out of pocket. And if Toronto rates Faulk similarly to how I do and is not interested, then I would pass on any Nylander dealings that start with Pesce.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Would you trade Brett Pesce straight up for William Nylander? Why or why not?
2) If you are more inclined to trade Justin Faulk like I am, how much would you be willing to sweeten the pot with futures or other players to make Faulk the centerpiece of a deal with the Leafs?
Go Canes!
1) No!
2) I am ambivalent (in the truest sense) about any trade for Nylander. As you mention, the money required to sign him will put stress on the organization. It is a problem now because organization is likely just above break even. This changes dramatically with the Canes making the playoffs and the fan base expanding with excitement for the new style of play and young talent. But until that happens, the current salary base will likely remain.
I really like Nylander and think having 5 young forwards the caliber of Aho, Teravainen, Svechnikov, Nylander, and Necas would make Carolina one of the most talented teams in the league for the next 6-8 years. As you mention, the problem is if the Canes trade Faulk++ for Nylander, then whatever Nylander signs for becomes the starting point for Teravainen and would need to be approximately $1.5-$2M higher for Aho. By the beginning of next year the Canes could be close to $77M (an extra 8.5 for Aho and 7.5 for Nylander, with Teravainen’s new contract eating up all but $2M of Faulk’s departing salary). That would leave one of Martinook/Ferland out of the mix. Then in two years all of Foegele, Wallmark, and Zykov will be RFAs.
So as I see it, Nylander now creates really tough decisions by 2020-2021. Just when the Hurricanes will be entering a Stanley Cup window.
All that being said, I would still offer Faulk plus any prospect not named Necas or Kuokkanen plus one the 2019 2nd round picks. If Nylander would sign for slightly less than $7M, say 6years/$40M, then it would be a great pick up. If Nylander costs more than $7M, then see above.
To me, I think CT said it all.
Amen Brother!!! To use Matt’s word… NO….
Even with Faulk as the trade, you still have the $$ problems. I don’t think it’s worth it. Especially not for Pesce!
I think moving Pesce would be really tough. I’d be more willing if a center was coming back. Pesce for Kadri would be tougher to turn down in my opinion because the Canes would be infinitely better with another scoring threat at center. I don’t think Leafs would do it because he’s on such an affordable contract though.
If Leafs want to do Nylander/Faulk, I’m not sure I’m willing to sweeten the pot much. Maybe a 3rd rd pick. Faulk is playing really well right now.
No we should not trade Pesce. Matt, I agree with your analysis and don’t envision Canes management trading away such a bargain contract. IMO Trevor van Riemsdyk is the RD most likely to be dealt since he is playing on his off-side and can be replaced by Fleury. We can go shopping for a forward at the trade deadline if we are in playoff position. TVR could be the RD to replace Hainsey in Toronto next year.
I actually think the Finn Kapanen is the better target. He is the same age as Nylander and so far this season is producing at a comparable pace as Nylander. However Kapanen will be a RFA next year and probably can be signed for a bit more than half of what Nylander will sign for. Toronto probably won’t be able to afford to keep both Nylander and Kapanen next year. I doubt Toronto will deal Kadri since he has a modified NTC and is signed to a favorable long-term contract, but you never know.
I’m looking forward to Rask’s return; we certainly could benefit from him being in the lineup right now. Also, I’m wondering how the goalie situation plays out. Seems hard to waive McElhinney since he’s won all three of his games. Hopefully Darling goes to Charlotte for a reconditioning stint.
I agree with Matt in his ultimate assessment that Pesce should not be traded for Nylander. Pesce should be a long term part of the core in Raleigh. He is a very good player on a great contract who fits the organization and coach.
I think someone is going to make a big mistake with Nylander. His career high in goals is 22 and people are talking 7-8 million. He has played much of his past two seasons with Matthews. He is the next Draisaitl in my opinion. Played wing with a super star, but can play center, who has not shown that he can generate high end offense on his own. A bridge deal makes sense but that doesn’t seem to be an option.
I would disagree with Matt on Faulk. He probably is the Hurricanes third best RD. Yet if you look around the league he would easily be in most team’s top four. He infuriates fans from time to time but that could be said for a lot of teams. They pick out a dman they don’t like and pile on. Faulk has played better this year and hopefully continues to improve with DeHaan.
I do agree with blinkman that Kapanen would be a more cost effective forward to consider.
Here is another thoughtful article on a trade between the Canes and the Leafs re: Nylander and Pesce. (The author, Dave Stevenson is a self -described “long suffering Caps fan”.) https://puckprose.com/2018/10/18/carolina-hurricanes-william-nylander-perfect-fit/ For me, the intangibles and contract make Pesce more valuable than outsiders would understand. He just seems to be great fit for the culture this team wants to build. How much of that bias is rose colored is impossible to judge being as avid a fan as I am. Nylander, is a player I know only by reputation. Reputations for Toronto players can often be highly inflated. (See: Kaberle, Tomas). As a result I need to be sold on exactly how good a player Nylander would be as a Cane. Given all these trade rumors are based on only the originators thoughts there is a possibility that this is a well orchestrated attempt to fluff up the reputation of Nylander for the benefit of the Leafs. The Leafs certainly aren’t missing his presence at all. Another way to look at this is to imagine a scenario where the team actively shopped Pesce through out the league to find the ever elusive 1C this team covets. Is Nylander the best we could do? I remain unsold that he his the best available at such a high cost.
This is a clear “no no” to me.
The more I look at it the less enfatuated I am with nylander.
Sure, I understand everyone has to maximize their value, that is a smart thing, but to stay in your home country instead of playing for the team that drafted you while holding out for ridiculous salary demands that are not supported by past performance does not point to a team first, I give it all player.
WE had a player a bit like that in Skinner (I think a lot less like that and everyone here knows I thought and think that trade was horrible), but if that is the message the team can not go out and sign another guy with notoriously inflated ego that is not even supported by past performance (22 goals is good, but not 8 mill good)
Quite honestly I wouldn’t even offer Faulk plus for Nylander. Maybe if Nylander agreed to a bridge deal with 5 or 6 mill for 3 years. then we can help put the team on the map, if he plays well, and we can let him go when his contract demands get too much.
Hopefully the Oilers continue to underperform and the team can go after RNH.
I’m not a fan of Nylander, and Pesce is a good, reliable dman. I’d only consider a Pesce trade for a center that I was sure of. Kadri is one possible guy, but I still would rather move Faulk!
Nugent-Hopkins would fit the bill. Tampa Bay has one or two centers who conceivably could be aquired, depending on the return.
Agree with you Matt on your analysis. Would not trade Pesce for Nylander. Anybody worth $8 million would leave a significant hole in the team they were leaving (or not playing for). His numbers are inflated to me and we would suffer financially and culturally from bringing him here. Let someone else ruin their franchise by making this mistake. I think Necas has the ability to be a top 6 winger. It may take another year, but he will be much cheaper than Nylander. Even if he puts up 2/3 of what Nylander is capable of, he will be a significantly better value. Once he and Svetch gel we will have 2 significant scoring lines in front of one of the best D cores in the league. Thats how you win cups. Money at that point is better spent bringing in the support players you need
I am on record as believing TOR will not be trading Nylander – TOR wants to keep Nylander and Nylander wants to stay in TOR.
I totally support Nylander holding out – who would want to work for a company that doesn’t value you financially the way you feel you should be. Would you take one for the team to work for less money than you think you are worth? I expect that Matthews and Marner are definitely supporting Nylander given their own contract negotiations.
Regardless, I am sure it is not just salary/term but also how the contract gets structured recognizing the likelihood of a lockout in two season. Nylander wants to get paid for 2020-21 even if that season doesn’t get played or only gets partially played. All the big-name free agents are pushing for that – including Tavares and I am sure Matthews and Marner will too.
And…here is where it gets real for the Canes…so will Aho and Turbo. They will want the bulk of their salaries for 2020-21 (and 2021-22, perhaps) as signing bonuses. And can you imagine Dundon agree to pay big money to players who are not playing??? That will be interesting.
But I also don’t see Dundon signing Nylander for a big-dollar/long-term contract.
I do disagree with Matt’s statement that supporting a Pesce trade means that you as stating that Faulk and Pesce are interchangeable. They clearly are not – in terms of skill, playing proclivities, and contract structure. You have to give up something (generally something the other team wants) to get something. We may prefer to keep Pesce over Faulk but if moving Pesce gets us pieces that make the Canes better than we do so.
On an unrelated note, Fora was waived unconditionally to be released from his contract. He didn’t make that much of an impression in Charlotte.
I guess I am going to go out on my own and say I disagree with just about everyone here. Yes, I would trace Brett Pesce for William Nylander.
First, Nylander is a centerman. He has played wing as a necessity. His defensive game is considered solid and beyond what Aho has shown to date.
I also disagree with many of the other assumptions that are being made. No, I don’t believe Pesce and Faulk are interchangeable. They are different kinds of players. Pesce is a defensive defenseman. Faulk is an offensive defenseman. Faulk isn’t great at defense, but Pesce hasn’t been all that on offense. Just like the Canes would suffer if Faulk assumed more of Pesce’s defensive responsibilities they would also suffer if Pesce assumed Faulk’s role on the PP.
What this really comes down to is do you think William Nylander is a top 6 centerman that is worthy of $7-8M. If he is the answer is go get him.
As far as salary cap goes it seems that the thoughts here are that everyone will be resigned and all the prospects will come to the NHL, be successful, and require a lot of money. I don’t believe any of that. Some current players will not be resigned and a few of the prospects will make it and the rest wont.
I will predict right now that only one of Ferland and Teravainen will be resigned. My vote today would be to resign Ferland. Ferland plays the kind of game the Canes need. Teravainen is mainly a perimeter player who also struggles on defense from time to time. Someone will pay TT $6M. He isn’t worth it. As I’ve said before, he is the Canes version of Matt Moulson and Kyle Okposo. Aho is going to make him a lot of money. Let someone else pay it.
Into the Teravainen vacuum should step Janne Kuokkanen. I am glad Kuokkanen wasn’t brought up for a bottom 6 role. He is a skill player IMO. He was great in a complimentary role with top players, but rather invisible playing with other AHL player in camp. He should bring much of the skill Teravainen brings to the Aho line, but will also spend a lot more time in the dirty areas Teravainen avoids.
Losing Pesce and Teravainen and adding Nylander would be pretty much a wash cap wise. The reality is that some of the Canes players are going to have to go if the young guys are going to have a place to play. If they are to keep Fox he had better have a spot to play or he will never sign. This is what has happened on other good teams like Pittsburgh and Chicago. It will happen here too, but probably not with a team playing near the cap.
I believe Nylander is the player that can push the Canes to the next level. Losing Pesce would be unfortunate, but would move the Canes forward in my less than expert opinion.
It’s always good to see both sides of the coin. I just think losing Pesce would create too big of a hole on the D side.
Yesterday I came out, as you did here, for accepting a Pesce-Nylander based trade. I just don’t think TOR is going to trade him. But I am a fan of Nylander and I think he would be a top-6 scorer.
Interesting thoughts on Ferland-Turbo (Aho)-Kuokk. Ferland is showing he belongs here. I am a fan. And he has already said he wants to stay with Carolina. He has to be the type of player RBA and TD want. That said, Aho has been best with another playmaker (Turbo) on his wing.
We are definitely going to have to face choices on players – we can’t sign everyone.
lessthan. I can see the logic behind a Pesce/Nylander trade. In fact, I am pretty sure I am the first one who broached that specific trade on C&C back in late July or early August. So while you are mostly alone, you are not way off base.
Well, at least not on Pesce/Nylander.
As far as keeping Ferland instead of Teravainen, that is much harder to reason. In fact, Teravainen has been better than Nylander the past two seasons by most measures: https://public.tableau.com/profile/bill.comeau#!/vizhome/SkaterComparisonToolv2/Dashboard1
(If this doesn’t link directly to a comparison, just choose Nylander for 2016-2018 and compare him to Teravainen). Teravainen is significantly better defensively, though Nylander has the edge offensively. Both are superior to Ferland in every category other than goals and shooting %–both likely related to Gaudreau’s impact.
Think about the Canes the past season, this preseason, and so far in 18-19. TSA was the top scoring line, then it was TAZ, during preseason it was Foegele/Aho/Teravainen. And remember everyone was concerned that Aho wasn’t cut out to play center in the first few preseason games. Once Aho and Teravainen were reunited (Ferland was not on the line) magic began to happen.
One of the most compelling arguments for creating a successful line is the “playmaker” analysis by Ryan Stimson. Both Aho and Teravainen are playmakers, they make the third linemate better. If Teravainen isn’t re-signed, Aho will drop off and Ferland or whomever else is on that line will become nearly ineffective. I have been surprised by Ferland and think he should remain on the top line this season. The truth is that he is benefitting greatly from Aho and Teravainen. Ferland is the Okposo/Moulson. Teravainen is Blake Wheeler to Aho’s Mark Scheifele. I challenge anyone who isn’t convinced of Teravainen’s value to find one objective analysis that shows he is anything less than a top-line winger. Also, the argument that Teravainen is only successful due to Aho is refuted by TT’s performance in two U20 World Junior Championships. Aho is listed with names like Kuznetsov, Malkin, and both Sedins. Aho was not on those teams.
Aho is the better player, but not by nearly as much as most of us think.
Sorry, but an analytics analysis of Teravainen and others won’t do much for me. Analytics suggested that Semin was an effective player. Hockey isn’t baseball. Actions aren’t taken mainly in a vacuum. Hockey analytics can be helpful. They can show strengths and weaknesses in players’ games, but to use them to say A is a better player than B, well, no. As far as I’m concerned there is no true objective way to value a hockey player.
Frankly, most analytics are flawed because the data they use is flawed. Shots on goals, turnovers, hits are all examples of statistics taken on the fly by scorekeepers during a game. They are published nearly immediately after a period with no review. People that go back and watch games on replay and take their own statistics will tell you how inaccurate they are. If the data is no good, the statistics are no good.
It’s really not hard to see the actions that players bring to the table. Teravainen is a player that skates well, sees the ice well, but is small, rather soft, and stays away from the high traffic areas on the ice. Ferland is less skilled, but hard nosed, physical, and goes where TT won’t. The other part of my argument is Teravainen can be replaced in house. The Canes have no one capable of replacing what Ferland does.
Finally, If Aho needs Teravainen to be a top player he really isn’t that good. (I don’t believe that at all. He doesn’t need TT.)
I am in the “don’t trade Pesce” camp for anyone more because we have no real way of replacing his value of the next 5 years at that price and less because I don’t value Nylander. I do value Nylander and would go after him hard if he becomes available; I’d just do it in a way that doesn’t create new holes we can’t fill.
I’m less concerned about future cap considerations than others: I’d rather have TOR’s players and their cap situation than our players and our cap situation. If it comes to getting cap squeezed, we’ll have options for how to trade our way out of it and that is a far better problem to have than being a few players short today.
There are players other than Nylander on their team that make us better AND that they’d be more willing to part with. Maybe a trade starting with Faulk or TvR for Kapanen or Kadri makes more sense and lets TOR keep Nylander.
The volume and quality of diverse opinions continues to be the single greatest thing about Canes and Coffee.
I love that I can write something that I think is reasonably well thought out and that I feel pretty strongly about and then check in late afternoon the next day to find a bunch of thoughtful discussion that in many cases disagrees with me in a similarly well thought out way that at least makes me reconsider my original stance.
Kudos to the Canes and Coffee ‘coffee shop crew’ that continues to be the best part of the site.
The best reason to not deal with Toronto, at least at this time, is the salary cap predicament they are facing will get worse with time. Babcock’s proposed solution, everyone play for less to make me look good, is not going to be the solution. Time to let the Leafs twist in the wind, their trading position is going to get worse over the next 12 months. That will be too much fun to watch to interfere with now,