While steering clear of the high risk bidding war range of the market, the Hurricanes have completed a couple rounds of lower profile but still quality transactions to build out most of the 2018-19 roster. With only about $7 million in cap space remaining and Justin Williams (if he returns), Brock McGinn and Haydn Fleury yet to be re-signed, the current version of the Hurricanes could be pretty close to the one that takes the ice on opening night.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe compares the current roster to the team from the second half of the 2018-19 season that pushed up into the playoffs.
In goal
Curtis McElhinney is replaced by some combination of James Reimer, Alex Nedeljkovic and possibly Anton Forsberg if needed. I would consider this change to be a wash but would also acknowledge that there is some risk. McElhinney was pretty solid in the second half of the 2018-19 season even when Mrazek was rising up to become the starter. So anything short of solid from Reimer and/or Nedeljkovic would represent a downgrade. Reimer is a proven NHL goalie but is coming off a down season. Nedeljkovic had a stellar 2018-19 season at the AHL level but is unproven at the NHL level.
In: James Reimer or Alex Nedeljkovic // Out: Curtis McElhinney
Net: Breakeven with modest increase in downside risk for second goalie slot.
On defense
Calvin de Haan is subtracted and right now likely to be replaced internally with Jake Bean and Haydn Fleury most likely to see additional NHL ice time. Jake Bean is interesting because he has the potential to be a plus on a power play that largely struggled during the 2018-19 season. But in total, the loss of de Haan is a reasonably significant downgrade. De Haan was part of the duo that got Faulk going early in the 2018-19 season, and even when pushed down the depth chart, it was great to have a player of his caliber solidifying a bottom pairing.
In: System depth including Haydn Fleury and Jake Bean // Out: Calvin de Haan
Net: Losing Calvin de Haan’s proven and steady play is a downgrade. How significant this downgrade is depends on injuries to top 4 defensemen and the ability of Haydn Fleury and/or Jake Bean to take a step forward.
At forward
The most significant changeover in personnel will likely be the forward position where a couple changes were made and where the potential is highest for an AHL player to step in and make a difference. As compared to the second half team from 2018-19, the Hurricanes are minus Greg McKegg and the quieter version of Micheal Ferland with Justin Williams still TBD. In are Erik Haula who likely slots at center and Ryan Dzingel who likely slots at wing. Haula should be a significant upgrade at center over Greg McKegg. McKegg fit the system well and was the good version of serviceable during the playoff push but contributed only modestly on the score sheet. If he can get back up to speed after a serious injury in 2018-19, Haula figures to be an upgrade offensively. As compared to the second half version of Micheal Ferland who never really got going again after returning from injury, Dzingel also figures to be a significant upgrade. The burning question on how much the Hurricanes upgraded at forward lies with Justin Williams’ decision. After clicking with Aho in the second half, he rose up the stat sheet to finish third on the team in scoring. Though maybe not as mobile at 36 years old, Williams still had enough of a combination of a nose for the net, veteran craftiness and finishing ability to be very productive offensively. His leadership is first and foremost, but his offensive production is not something to be ignored.
In: Erik Haula, Ryan Dzingel and system depth // Out: Micheal Ferland, Greg McKegg and possibly Justin Williams
Net: If Justin Williams returns and can produce even at a slightly reduced level, Haula for McKegg and Dzingel for second half Ferland look to be fairly significant upgrades. If instead, someone must also replace Williams’ production, the forward changeover starts to look like more of an even swap.
My thoughts netting it out
The summer has been an interesting one from a fan perspective. Early on, when the team did not have an NHL goalie signed and had traded de Haan mostly to clear cap space, the fan base seemed skeptical and pessimistic. More recently, fans seem to be enamored with the activity, the Mrazek re-signing and two additions at forward.
If Williams does not re-sign, I put the current roster as pretty even with the 2018-19 group with a few risks. Dzingel would replace Williams production-wise, Haula could be a modest upgrade over Ferland, and the wild card with upside would be the internal replacement for McKegg.
But there are question marks on the back end. I think the Hurricanes enter the season in a better place in goal, but that position in general still just always comes with some risk. With the comparison point being the second half of the 2018-19 season, Mrazek really cannot do much better and can only match that. And doing the same for the backup slot either requires Reimer to rebound or Nedeljkovic to hit the ground running at the NHL level. And as noted above, losing de Haan without a proven replacement also adds a significant element of risk.
Worth noting are two things. First, the Carolina Hurricanes from the second half of the 2018-19 season were a very good hockey team, so matching that level or even falling a little bit short of it is playoff pace. Second, because of how young the team is, there is upside in the roster simply from players becoming better without the need to improve via additions.
What say you Canes fans?
1) In goal, do you see the current group as capable of matching a strong second half by Mrazek/McElhinney?
2) Where do you stand on the blue line with regard to weighing the loss of Calvin de Haan but also considering potential positives/upside from young defensemen Haydn Fleury and Jake Bean?
3) With and without Justin Williams in the mix, how would you assess the current forward group compared to the version from the second half of the 2018-19 season?
Go Canes!
1. Three potentials vs. one proven reserve – this resembles throwing stuff on the wall and seeing what sticks. I really don’t believe this is the backup goalie alignment we enter the season with. I am a fan of Ned but believe he has to earn his chance – and I don’t think that will happen in training camp or preseason.
2. CdH is a huge loss to the team, with his stability in the d-zone. Bean offers huge potential as an offensive d-man over anyone in the Canes organization but he has to be given the opportunity to success – something which Fleury didn’t get this past season. He is a fabulous PP QB – but more important than him in that position is whether the PP will be better coached and implemented.
But our d-zone play will be lesser with CdH in CHI.
3. JW has to get off the pot. Is he in?, or is he not? But, oh, his production on ice has already been replaced. He bangs home pucks opportunistically, but he is slow on his skates, slow with making decisions, and slow in moving the puck. A JW at 80% is, arguably, worse than no JW at all.
Without JW but with the signing of Dzingel (and trade for Haula), we are much better in the forward ranks. These two names are a huge plus to who they replaced, including McKegg.
1) I am concerned that Mrazek can match his own play. He played well above league average the last 20 starts or so. The key question is whether Mrazek can continue to be that good this season.
I am confident Ned can be solid in the NHL.
2) The D will struggle early for two reasons: 1. Bean and probably McKeown will have some growing pains; 2. Hamilton struggles every season until January. Hamilton played great from January on last season—many said it was because he started the year with an injury. However, Calgary fans pretty unanimously said he was a slow starter. His career numbers indicate that the first 35 games of the season he produces points at about the same rate as Slavin. Hamilton is nowhere near the defensive contributor that Slavin is, so at that level of production the D won’t be a strength. IF Dougie starts fast, the D won’t noticeably miss de Haan.
3) I would call Haula and Dzingel for Ferland and Williams a slight upgrade. The big question is do Niederreiter and Staal play the way they played in 2019 for all of 19-20. A 65 point Niederreiter and 55 point Staal makes the Canes’ forwards as good as they were during the playoff push.
One note. Why does everyone think Williams is the one who ultimately makes the decision on his return? The team wants him back at a discount and Williams hasn’t decided to accept that yet. While he is a consummate professional and would never go public with the negotiations, I found his comment about not wanting to move his family again very telling. That comment is totally different than saying he is not sure he wants to put his family through another 9 months of his frequent absences.
Matt, I think you overestimate the potential for Fleury to ever be an NHL defensemen. I also think you need to have more realistic expectations of Jake Bean’s NHL debut. You discount the potential for Trevor Carrick, Roland McKeown, and Gustav Forsling to fill the slot. We also could pick up an established defensive defensemen via trade.
I’m not exactly sure which Fleury you’ve been watching. He was rarely bad at the NHL level, was often pretty good, and occasionally made the stellar play. Couple that with his outstanding play during the Calder Cup run, and I believe you’ll see a confident, newly reinvigorated Haydn Fleury who will easily claim a bottom pairing role. The bigger issue to start the season is whether or not TVR will be ready in October.
Something tells me Donnie is not yet done tinkering.
Regarding goalies, I think we wait for a desperate team needing a backup goalie and deal Reimer or Forsberg. Ned starts in CLT and only gets called up to be the starter if Mrazek struggles (don’t think Ned is a backup option or should be).
At forward, I could see swapping a bottom 6 forward for another with some bite, possibly a 4C. I do not think Williams returns, and instead Necas makes his way onto the team.
On defense, I think we rely on our young depth and give them a chance at bottom pairing. It’s really the #6 and #7 D slots that are open, so no need to sign someone elsewhere just yet.
I, too, thought that Reimer would be moved before the beginning of the season. Then I asked, “where”. If you look across the NHL, nobody is really in need of a starter or a backup, even if you agree that Columbus, Buffalo, and a few others might be thin in net. Their respective front offices have indicated their “dancing with the one that brung ya”. I don’t see a Reimer trade happening at this juncture.
If we get the 2nd-half Mrazek we should be fine in goal with any backup. If we get the 1st-half version, we have serious downside risk.
We obtained two proven depth scorers both with Top-6 upside. Again, that should make Staal’s job easier and give us more balance. Even without JW, I view our offense as more dangerous.
The real issue is on defense. We don’t seem as deep but maybe our prospects are ready. Wouldn’t it be special if Bean was our version of The Ghost in his rookie year.
I agree with live_free that I suspect GMDW isn’t finished tinkering on defense.
“there is upside in the roster simply from players becoming better” is the key. Are Aho, Svetch, Feogle, Walmark, Necas, Bean, Ned, Fleury etc going to continue to become better players. Not all will.
Losing DeHaan costs the d depth. We have organizational depth(including picks to get a solid D-man. So trading his salary to add forwards is the right move.
So much comes down to goaltending and it is so unpredictable. Having 4 guys should be good enough to make a playoff push.
I like our chances.
I agree with dmilleravid. Donny isn’t finished tinkering yet. We definitely need one more big, strong ill-tempered defensive defensemen. Someone like Eric Gudbranson, Jamie Oleksiak, Stephen John, Darnell Nurse, Dion Phaneuf, Jacob Trouba. We have an abundance of bantum weights, but not heavyweights.
Ferland had a problem being our only policeman. His health suffered when he had to deal with multiple goons on the same opposing team. Dzingel will as well. Ferland was a middle to light-heavyweight. So is Dzingel. We have some hitters, but no fighters other than Dzingel. A big defenseman who can make life miserable for enemy forwards will complement our bantum weights we have at d now.
The mythical aspect of our depth at defense is showing. Trevor Carrick is all we have to fill that bill, and he is not that big.
1) McElhinney was absolutely solid, he saved our bacon the first half of the season. On paper I would say we are equivalent at goalie but that depends on if does what he should. We have two potentials behind that so I would say we are as good as last year with potential upside.
2) Defense is worse. You can’t take out a top 4 D and expect to be the same. Hopefully Fleury, Bean and Forsling can fill the void. Carrick could get a shot too.
3) if Williams does not come back we are worse. We would loose 90 point with Ferland and Williams. The two new forwards could potentially replace that, but we do not have the same grit or leadership. We get Williams back and we are probably a little better. Without, we need to know if he is coming back so we can try to fill in. I still think we are going to miss Ferland grit, it made us a different team, which we are now not. It depends on the Williams decision if we take a step backward. I hope he makes his decision so we still have time to react.
On if Reimer. It got deleted.
1. I’m in the minority here, (and most likely suffer from an uncharacteristic spout of optimism I suppose) bt I think it’s time to give Ned a backup job. He’s done everything asked of him and I think this is the year he needs to take the next step. If the short term result is a few games lost I’d rather have that happen this season then in 2020/21, because it feels this is another rebuild season, or at least significant retooling season for the team. I predict Reimer will be dealt, possibly to Columbus (they seem to have no plan in net right now). Goaltending will be a risky business but I remain modestly optimistic about it. At least we don’t have to worry about having Darling in net.
2. D will be weaker than last year, but again, I have accepted the fact that this is the “piss or get off the pot” year for many of the prospects and for hat to happen we need to give whomever we feel is ready meaningful minutes, not just bench time. It will be scary and there will be frustration, but I think it’s time. I’m not sure Hamilton is the guy for the Canes D, too streaky, but a good version of Hamilton is about as good as they come, so hopefully we can see that and continued mojo for Faulk.
3. Huge potential (and huge uncertainty) at forward, but the group looks stronger than last year, even if we only expect modest step up from prospects. I would like to add Anisimov as a safe 3 or 4C (not sure about the cap space but I know his bonus has been paid so his actual salary is quite a bit lower). If we got AA on the third line an Walmark on the 4th we’d be as solid down the middle as we’ve been in probably a decade.
Hopefully JW could sign for a 2X2.25 mill (3 in the first, 1.5 in the second) or else be hired as a players’ coach.
He’s not exactly hurting for money and I think if he re-ups it would be about one more chance to take the Canes to a cup, and if he eats up 5 mill of the cap he is decreasing the chances of that happening.
Great guy, great leader, great captain, but age catches up with everybody. I still very much hope to see him wearing the C for the Caniacs next year.
Complex hypothetical questions make we wary of my hypothetical answers. Last Thanksgiving we had seen our team play 25 games, saw fairly conclusively how that team measured up against the NHL. When asked if that team could make the playoffs, most of us would only had wagered yes only if there were long odds in our favor. My hypothetical answer was no, the playoffs were not happening. Similarly no one saw the Islanders making the playoffs. The loss of Tavares was not to be overcome so quickly. Given all of that here is my prediction, worth every penny you have paid for it.
Goal tending is a crap shoot. Last season we started with Mraz and Darling. Pure serendipity let Mac fall in our laps early enough to abandon pipe dreams about Darling. This season is no different. Since there are 4 options now, odds are better a workable tandem will emerge.
Like Tavares, individual players are replaceable. DeHaan is more replaceable than Tavares, his loss will be negligible to our team’s won/loss percentage next season.
Last season our forwards contributed as much to our eventual success on the defensive side of the puck as they did on the offensive side. My sense is RBA won’t let that change. Last season our scoring was a tale of 2 seasons. Not good until New Year’s, near the league best after New Years. Trying to predict the outcome of this group will be as hard as explaining what changed over the Christmas holidays. I’m not even going to try.
This exercise may be premature anyway. “The committee” isn’t done tinkering with this squad, regardless of how Justin decides his future. We also haven’t a clue of the impact ex-Checkers will have next season. Players who would have been rushed to the NHL in the past, may now be over ripe from their extensive AHL experience and ready for the big time. We may experience a different outcome from these fresh faces than in the past. All in all, I like what’s been done. I also like that little of the future has been mortgaged in the process. So far, so good.
Goalies are set up in a fantastic way considering the situation the team was in at the start of the off-season. A known quantity, a prime candidate for a bounceback, High level prospect, and a guy with NHL experience. Goalies are a numbers game: more options are likelier to produce a hit. Maybe none of them do, but that doesnt mean the team hasn’t done a phenomenal job in setting themselves up with a solid chance for success.
The defense seems to have downgraded for sure. But if youre gonna build up a strong stable of prospects, you have to bet on them eventually. Many teams would love to have a choice of Fleury, McKeown, Bean, Sellgren, Carrick in competition for just one single defense spot. De Haan’s contract was a luxury for this defense, one that was probably wisely sent away so we could improve the forward group. Which brings me to point 3!
This forward group is a CLEAR upgrade even if Williams doesn’t return. Haula pushes Wallmark down to 4C, where he is a big plus, and Dzingel can probably improve on Williams’ offensive production in a heavy forechecking system. I want Willy back to make this forward corps a home run as much as any, but we’re already better. Ferland is gone, but he was a nonfactor after the trade deadline. I havent even mentioned the better production Svech will have when he isnt hauling around 4th liners. Again, the team has set themselves up for success here. I don’t understand why so many commenters are so down on what they’ve done this off-season, it has been an unqualified success. We now have the 9th highest payroll in the NHL. So much for dundon’s obvious cheapness.
Just a couple of quick comments…..I’d be close to shocked if Justin Williams didn’t come back for one more kick at the can. When you factor in sending down Gibbons and Bishop, re-signing McGinn, Williams, and perhaps a depth guy like Maenalanen is very doable with our new found “cap situation”.
I think we’ll be fine on defense with Fleury, Bean, Forsling, and McKeown all likely fighting it out for #6. I still think Fleury rises to the top. McKeown or Bean might start the season in Raleigh depending on the health of Van Riemsdyk.
I think it is pretty safe to count on even better seasons from Svechnikov, Aho, Teravainen, McGinn, and maybe even Foegle. I wouldn’t be surprised if Wallmark put up better points, even in a 4C role (note that Haula has never played a full 82 game season). One Martin Necas will likely have a similar impact as Svech did this season, so an extra 35 points from him isn’t out of the question. All in all we’re a better team this season, even with the loss of de Haan and potential retirement of Williams.