I started but unfortunately did not finish another stats-oriented article that has a bit more depth to it. That article will have to wait until I find time to finish writing it.
Instead, today’s Daily Cup of Joe takes a quick tour of some simpler statistics.
The Sebastian Aho effect
Sebastian Aho, who has 73 points in 65 games, is on pace for 92 points. That is a HUGE number in Hurricanes history. Eric Staal hit 100 in the magical 2005-06 season, but his run of good seasons in his prime were tightly in a 70 to 82-point range.
The Sebastian Aho effect also has powerful reach to the players on the ice with him. Nino Niederreiter who has played almost exclusively with Aho has 18 points in 19 games for a 78-point pace. His career high is 57 points, but he has scored at a mid-40s pace otherwise throughout his career.
Micheal Ferland had 11 goals in the first 24 games of the season playing primarily with Aho. After returning from a layoff due to a concussion, he has scored only 6 goals in 32 games. The first stretch represents a 38-goal pace over 82 games, whereas the second stretch is only a 15-goal pace.
Justin Williams scoring change is not as pronounced, but I think many would agree that he too is thriving playing with Aho.
The commonality between Niederreiter and Ferland is that both are power forwards who can skate and finish around the net. Both are exactly the type of player who most benefits from Aho’s ability to carry and distribute the puck in the offensive zone.
After years of trying mostly unsuccessfully to patch together enough scoring from lower lines and not really have a true first line scoring-wise, the Hurricanes finally have one. More significantly, as an offensive catalyst Sebastian Aho has the ability to boost the play and scoring of whoever plays on his line.
Plus/minus
I know we are not supposed to talk about plus/minus. And I fully realize that the stat has flaws especially for small sample sizes. But at the end of the day, games are decided by goal differential or less fancily plus/minus. And though causation is up for debate, I think it is interesting to take a simple look at who is on the ice when the team is winning and who is on the ice when the team is not winning.
In that respect, the disparity in plus/minus for the Hurricanes is fascinating
The elite
Sebastian Aho +28, Brett Pesce +26, Teuvo Teravainen +25
More than any other player, I think Aho’s +28 is significant. After laboring for years with a player who could score in bunches but never really boost his team ahead when he was on the ice, Aho is not just scoring but winning when he is on the ice. Pesce’s number is also interesting. He has played with a variety of partners, so one would figure that his plus/minus would be similar to the rest of the blue line. But it is not. The next best is Faulk at +10. The average for the 6 regulars on the blue line is only +2. In that context, Pesce’s +26 is a massive outlier in a good way, and I do not think it is mathematical randomness.
The second tier
Micheal Ferland +15, Justin Faulk +10, Nino Niederreiter +10, Brock McGinn +9
Ferland has generally been positive throughout the year, but interestingly surged +9 in February. In my book, Faulk is a secondary candidate for most-improved. McGinn is maybe a bit of a surprising entry in this second tier as a depth forward whose goal scoring is down a bit in 2018-19. Niederreiter is impressive in that his +10 is in only 19 games.
Marginally positive
Calvin de Haan +5, Jordan Martinook +3, Greg McKegg +3, Dougie Hamilton +1, Saku Maenalanen +1, Jaccob Slavin 0
This group holds three of the four remaining defensemen and also a couple of the team’s strong depth forwards.
Minus
Andrei Svechnikov -3, Trevor van Riemsdyk -4, Lucas Wallmark, -5, Justin Williams -5, Jordan Staal -7, Warren Foegele -14
A couple things jump out from the bottom group. First is that Williams, Staal and Foegele who are the bottom three on the team spent a huge chunk of the beginning of the season together. The trio played like it was shot out of a cannon for a handful of games and mostly labored after that. This might sound odd, but Jordan Staal’s injury played a significant role in the Hurricanes rebound. It is not that Jordan Staal is a bad player. I am on record as thinking that his return significantly improves the team. But for whatever reason, Brind’Amour seemed to cling too tightly to the logic of a Foegele/Staal/Williams checking line even after the eye test and the underlying statistics suggested it just was not working. Williams is excelling on a different line. Foegele is now in a lesser role. And early returns on Staal with new line mates are promising. Interestingly, Wallmark who admirably stepped into Staal’s role as a checking line center is also near the bottom. Both Staal and Wallmark have performed reasonably well defensively, but I think their simple plus/minus highlights the impossibility of winning against the NHL’s best by defending them. The path to winning requires being able to score too. With a playmaker on his wing in Teravainen, Staal has been productive since returning from injury. In four games, he has a goal and 5 assists, and maybe not surprisingly is +4 in those games.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Who else wants to rave about Sebastian Aho and his emergence as a true catalyst who scores in bunches but equally importantly boosts his line mats significantly too?
2) What, if anything, do you see in the plus/minus disparity on the team?
Go Canes!
1. This is why Dundon made the comment that everyone was available but Aho. He’s still years away from the typical best production years and has only gotten better and shown more fire year to year. A true producer and leader.
2. Hockey fans have thrown the baby out with the bath water on plus/minus. It mostly indicates a glaring difference in point totals and performance. If a high scoring player with starts in the attacking zone is more of a defensive liability than their worth (Skinner being a minus) or vice versa (Pesce being such a big a plus) it’s cause to take notice. There are definitely grains of salt to be taken with it (that early Staal line was consistently deployed in its own end against the best lines).
Foegele isn’t too surprising considering his experience and style, but it could become cause for concern if it doesn’t start to look a little better before the end of the season.
Side note, Ferland cooling down while off of Aho’s line gives me some hope the team can resign him reasonably after the season. I’d love to see him next to Necas next year as a protector with good hands for another heady playmaking center.
What’s impressed me about Aho is
– his competitiveness.
– his speed – he looks so fast out there and rarely looks out of gas (see OT goal against Florida).
– his two way play. RBA’s decision to put Aho-TT on the PK might be the turning point of the season. It sparked the entire team.
Williams is the perfect complement to Aho. As much as they joke about Williams speed, his quickness and decision making in tight spaces really opens up the ice – which is perfect for Aho.
Aho should be the next Captain after Williams retires (guessing he might have 1-2 years left?).
1. There are great players and there are great players who make the other players around them better, and not incidentally (even Ty Rattie became a scorer on McDavid’s line). There is a real synergy to the play between the 3 on the top line, and it is great to watch.
Wasn’t it ct who warned of Ferland’s point production falling off with CGY last season? The Canes will look real smart not paying him the big money back in December/January. That said, off Aho’s line he is something of a player without a role -but I assume Ferland will be the subject of another blog post in the near future.
2. There are lies, damn lies, and statistics – and below that plus/minus. Interesting p/m is what you would expect from the success of the players and combinations. The real outlier is Foegele – and this is probably the one use of the stat – what is he doing (or not doing) to be so different than the rest of the team?
The early-season PK woes led to a big negative +/- for Slavin. Since Jan-1, the Canes have 6 of the Top 13 league-wide.
Agree with the point that a good checking has to produce offense, too; keeping the other team playing defense is the best way – maybe the only way – from not giving up goals.
Goals against while on the PK actually are not included in plus/minus – I had the same thought as you did on Slavin earlier this season and had my understanding corrected.
Interesting stats. As much as I grumble about the scouting misses in the first round for the last 5 or 6 years, snagging Aho in the second round was pure genius that makes up for a lot of that.
TD could’ve saved 2 or 3 mill by getting Aho’s long-term contract done last summer.
He might perhaps have agreed to 6.5 or 7 mill long-term deal last summer, nothing under 8.5 now, and every bit of it deserved based on the play he has exhibited this season (I’ll leave my socialist grumbling about insane salaries out of this).
I think Vogele’s stock has fallen the most this year.
I barely ever notice him in the lineup, definitely less than any of the other players.
To be fair, his rise was very rapid and he is still a young kid, so there is tremendous upside there, but I wonder if he could do with a season, or at least part of one down in CLT next year, on the current roster he is the one that looks most replaceable at the moment.
Faulk has had a monster season, I am in the camp that wants to keep him if a deal can be found.
He was drafted by the Canes, he suffered through the bad times with the Canes, he could be part of the return of the Canes.
Hopefully Ferland”s drop in production can be used as a bargaining chip. If that guy can be signed on a reasonable new deal he is an asset to the team.
Most Canes players start off cold and heat up throughout the year, Ferland is the opposite, and the Canes need some of those players to balance the season.
Great discussion and points by all. I am fascinated by the insights that are available from stats. As others have mentioned, plus/minus has been overly discredited. Of course there needs to be context such as zone starts, quality of competition, and quality of teammates. However, when viewed another way it still a telling stat. For instance take the Even Strength Goals for/against per 60 minutes for Aho and Teravainen.
Aho–GF/60 = 3.9; GA/60 = 2.4
TT–GF/60 = 3.4; GA/60 = 1.9
No matter how you put those in context the numbers indicate that the Canes are winning at even strength with those two players on the ice. By the way Niederreiter is 3.9/1.9 since his arrival, so he is impacting Aho as well.
Matt, I am thrilled that you mention Pesce’s numbers and state that his being a “massive outlier in a good way” is not due to randomness. Statistics make a compelling case that Brett Pesce is one of the best defensive D-men in the league (I think there is actually an argument that he is the very best).
Pesce’s 1.8 GA/60 is the best by a Canes D-man with de Haan next at 2.2. Pesce’s GF/60 is top among the regular D-men at 3.2. Fleury is 3.9 in his 14 games.
Pesce is an outlier in other statistics: Evolving Hockey calculates both Goals Above Replacement and Wins Above Replacement. Pesce’s Even Strength GAR is 8.4, which is best on the team. Aho is second at 7.5. Aho is the leader in WAR at 2.1, while Pesce and Williams come in second at 1.8.
Hockeyviz calculates a statistical that Micah McCurdy calls “threat,” which is basically the number and quality of shots produced for and against while a player is on the ice. When 22 is on the ice the team faces 10% less threat. No other D-man on the Canes reduces threat more than 2%.
Finally, while I am singing Pesce’s praise, he actually has as many even strength goals as Faulk and Slavin combined. So his offensive contributions this year are also decent.
As the above numbers suggest, I would argue that Aho is the center/forward who makes everyone better and, perhaps surprisingly, Brett Pesce is the defenseman who does the same.
Interesting statistics and commentary.
Aho’s Emergence in +/- has been driven in part by his improvement on defense. Note he finished at +4 last year, a remarkable upswing.
There has been much commentary this year about how Pesce brings out the best in his defensive partner, which passes the eye test when watching him. I didn’t expect such a large gap to the other D men though.
Turbo’s stats surprised me a bit. His ability to drive play from the wing is impressive, but I didn’t realize his lines were that good at bothe ends.