My hope is to get back to Micheal Ferland, Teuvo Teravainen and the interplay between them, but with a busy day and no time to write and the late Canes game that will have to wait. Today’s Daily Cup of Joe offers a short series of quick hitters.
On trading a defenseman
For me it is like this…Jaccob Slavin is part of the core and not going anywhere. Calvin de Haan is unlikely to go because he is the only other proven left shot. The options would be one of the three top 4 type right shot defensemen — Justin Faulk, Brett Pesce or Dougie Hamilton. Though I could see the team partly seeing which yields the greatest return, I put Pesce in a different category. His $4 million annual salary for five more years is a huge plus and not something I would easily part with. And I also think he is the steadiest even if also most unspectacular of the bunch. Low salary and low downside in a proven 24-year old top 4 is not something that should be taken lightly.
On Dougie Hamilton
Also on the topic of the blue line, I think it would be fair to say that Dougie Hamilton has been a disappointment thus far. In total through 49 games, he has not been a regular difference-maker offensively, has had intermittent issues defensively and rightfully fell to the third pairing. And based on the team’s logjam on the right side, I would not be against trading him for the right return. All that said, my preference would be to have a bit more patience with him. (Though Faulk has rebounded nicely in 2018-19, he is still my choice to be traded.) That is because I think the good version of Hamilton if the Canes can conjure it up can be the type of player who is a difference-maker, drives wins and is that rare top echelon of 2020 defenseman who help drive offense. Though there are no guarantees and early returns are not great, I would prefer not to punt too early.
Looking forward at the goalie position and considering Petr Mrazek
Though there is always risk in the fickle goalie position, I think I have seen enough to re-sign Mrazek. Scott Darling will be bought out this summer, and though Curtis McElhinney has played well and could return, he is 35 years old and not really a long-term solution as a starter. While Mrazek has not been perfect, I think he has been good enough that I would commit a slot to him for 2019-20 and beyond partly just to reduce the pressure trying to land a #1 next summer. He is only 26 years old which is young by goalie standards, and probably right now could be re-signed for a reasonable 1A/1B type price. Something like 2-3 years at $2.5 million would be a bargain, but I would expect he costs a bit more $3 million-ish. I would do that for two years possibly stretching to three.
Room for improvement for Sebastian Aho
All in all, Sebastian Aho’s transition to the center position has gone well, probably better than expected even. He is on pace for an impressive 90-ish points does not look to be in over his head in any way at the center position. That said, the one sometimes glaring Achilles’ heel is his coverage away from the puck when his assignment does not appear to be a threat. Aho does fine defending when the threat is there, but he has a tendency to focus too much on the puck, loosely defend areas instead of specific players and as a result have brief lapses that are just enough to offer a 1-2 second opening for a quick pass and grade A scoring chance against. He has been beaten to the front of the net off of face-off losses while he paused before engaging. And he too regularly creeps down to help when ot needed leaving a path and passing lane to between the face-off circles for opposing defenseman. I think the key for him is playing with more a ‘my assignment is’ mentality. He has the hockey sense to be a great two-way center, and as I said above, he generally does well when he needs to take away a scoring threat. As noted at the outset, in total Aho’s acclimation to the center position has been overwhelmingly positive, so I call this out as an area for improvement not some catastrophic fatal flaw.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Which of my quick hitters do you agree with and which do you disagree with?
2) Who else has a quick hitter or two to bandy around today?
Go Canes!
Your points were pretty well on display against the Flames.
Mrazek made a few spectacular saves, I agree he should be given a deal in carolina.
Aho played a decent game but made some significant defensive oopsies.
I personally would prefer resigning Faulk and trading Hamilton. There are 4 reasons.
Teams are looking for cost insurance for a few years, likely it makes Hamilton more attractive than a D man whose contract is up at the end of next season.
If Fox can be persuaded to migrate to Raleigh and join the canes the most natural spot for him to start would be a third pairing offensive specialist, the role that Hamilton currently occupies. Don’t thrust him into a top 4 role too soon. Speaking of which:
Faulk has found a reliable defense partner in de Haan, and Pesce and Slaven are better together. that’s a pretty good top 4 group. Don’t mess with something that is working.
Finally, Faulk was drafted by the Canes. IN good times and bad times he’s been a Hurricane. I want to see more homegrown players stay with the team. I know this reason is weak, but I want to feel like the canes are my hometown team, not just a collection of mersenary players who are hussled between paymasters. Of course that’s how the business goes, but it would be nice to see some hometown boys on your hometown team (of course faulk is a minnisota boy but he has pretty much earntd hometown status after this many years with the Canes, after all about half the population here comes from the north).
Of course this depends on external factors such as which d man can yield an irresistable offer, whether Fox wants to sign in Carolina and what faulk wants to do when his contract is up.
IN fact a 5th reason for trading Hamilton now is to have the ability to trade Faulk next year if Fox starts off strong and Faulk wants to be traded.
All good points. I am against the conventional wisdom of trading any of our top 6 D-men, but instead would consider trading Fleury. Adam Fox is a wildcard and to make a move now would be premature. Our current defense is strong and deep enough to make a cup run; why weaken it unless we get a deal we can’t refuse.
Another thing on my mind – in some ways McGinn, Martinook and Foegele are pretty similar type LW players. Is there room for all three next year?
Any word about Jordan Staal’s expected return? He is greatly missed in the face-off circle.
I agree blink. I do not see why we trade any D. Hamilton is starting to come on. Faulk has been great. Don’t fix what is not broke. Do we really think we are going to make a big playoff run this year? We can get a scoring forward from the UFAs at the end of the season. Why take away a D that works (for he most part). There are no guarantees Fox will sign or even that it will not take him some time to be effective. If anybody, Fleury would be on my list but you cant count on new guys to come in and be generational players. I am not sure Fleury has had enough time yet. I know there is a lot of high expectations with Fox. I will let Canes management decide if he is really that great. I have no feel for it. If Fox has the attitude (and I don’t know this) that I play or I am not signing, then I would say walk. There are no guarantees that he will be great.
I would resign Mrazek. I like McElhinney too. I am a bit concerned with his knee issues. Wait to the end of the year but it might be good to extend him as well. Our goaltending has been pretty good.
Your quick hitters are well taken. I would take a different tack in some ways. I would trade Dougie. I would keep Faulk at all costs. Dougie is big, but he is weak. No grit in him.
Faulk, on the other hand has good upper body strength. He can keep most big strong forwards from either cutting in front of the net or just standing there. Dougie can’t, or won’t.
Faulk has good speed.
I agree with Matt on Pesce; all but untouchable. I agree with blinkman that we should trade Fleury for whatever we can get; some sticks and pucks, new or used.
I would trade the rights to Fox to whichever big market team who is willing to give up something even marginally good. We must learn from Vesey and Butcher. I guarantee that we cannot match what the big market teams can offer. And I am not talking merely about salary and bonuses. TV and radio ads in a big market generate big money for a player. Small markets can’t compete. Fox’s agent knows this. We had best cut our losses. Trade the rights to him now.
Are Ferland, Staal, McIlhenney, and Bishop really still injured or are they being held out of injury hazard for a pending trade?
We will see soon.
If Ferland goes, we must replace him. I like Nino a lot. But he cannot replace Ferland.
Darren Archibald and Max Domi come to mind.
We need a big strong and nasty left-handed defensemen.
Darnell Nurse and Dion Phaneuf come to mind.
Regarding trading a defenseman…my view is forget the idea unless you are talking about getting a PROVEN scoring forward in return. I’m talking about a Hoffman, Stone, Duchane, etc. type scorer. To trade for less will result in a serious overpayment for a forward who won’t make a significant difference.
Agreed RR. If we do, it better be a very high end forward. There is no good reason to trade a D right now.
1. Fox is a 20 year old unsigned, ivy league college junior. It is really premature to pen him in on our NHL depth chart. Kinda like counting the chickens from eggs that haven’t even been laid yet.
2. I would prefer to keep Faulk and Pesce over Hamilton, primarily for the reasons stated above plus I don’t like the team getting any less “gritty” than it is currently.
3. For the same reason either Ferland, or a player with the grit, size and skill as Ferland is needed. Tom Wilson has set the bar for compensating that player. Ferland is only a year older than Wilson and has played 130 games less in the NHL. If he leaves he will need to be replaced.
4. Aho is only 21 and has played in just over 200 NHL games in 2 1/2 seasons. Less than 5O of those games are at first line center. He will only be an RFA at season end, w/o arbitration rights. Expect mistakes. Expect improvement. It is premature though to give him an 8 year, $64mm deal. Think William Nylander money instead. 5. Mrazek’s SV%, currently .894, is way below the NHL average, yet compared to the recent past seems lofty. He is playing behind a pretty good defense. Have our expectations dropped too low?
I believe the NN addition will be very good. Still hard to believe the Wild made that trade. We should still resign Ferland. Grit and scoring, he is dangerous and will be greatly missed if we make the mistake of letting him go. He is providing protection for Aho and TT. Competitors know they will pay the price if they mess with Aho/TT. Ferland will squash them. I believe his value is under appreciated. There are not that many guys in the NHL that posses what he does. I really do not like the idea of trading him at the deadline to save some money, pay him. He may not be a 30 goal scorer but he keeps the competition looking.
I, for one, think that Faulk is ready for a change and I will be very surprised if he will want to re-sign with the Canes. So the idea of re-signing him is probably moot. I don’t think you can risk trading Dougie – or we maye easily end up with neither after next season.
And I think salary almost demands we trade one of the top-D.
The word is there is a lot of talk between Waddell and other teams for a D-for-F trade.
I agree with you, Matt, that an offer to Mrazek makes sense – whether he iis #1 or part of 1A/1B combo again next season. But I expect he feels he is playing his way into something more significan than a $3Mx2 deal. FA may be attractive to him as it is to Ferland.
I really think it is time to ponder what happens when Staal returns – he, apparently, is still a ways off – and if future plans should consider him as being no longer on the team. There is both good and bad in that, for both sides of the fence.
1) Agree with all. Though I have also noticed Aho making a few defensive plays that were outstanding. So much so that I was thinking of asking others if they think he will eventually be ranked with Barkov and similar two-way stalwarts.
2) Related to your player notes from last night: Pesce has looked good on the left. That increases the opportunity for a youngster becoming a point producing D. I had wondered who would pair with Fox—Slavin is becoming a threat and de Haan needs to support one of Faulk or Hamilton. But Pesce would be ideal. Basically Pesce is the future partner for whichever young D proves best: Fox or Bean.
There is no world where Justin Faulk is as good a hockey player as Dougie Hamilton. While they both have defensive lapses, if anybody watched last night’s game, Hamilton showed what he can do in that regard. He’s got a more accurate shot, actually possesses a hard wrist shot, and while averaging almost 3 minutes of ice time less, he only has 8 less hits than Faulk. I like both players, but put Hamilton with de Haan giving him room to roam, and he’s scoring much more.
I’d also re-sign Mrazek, but let’s face it, he’s got an .894 SV%. He’s not going to command $3 million per year. I think a multi-year deal (2 or 3) at something around $2 million per should get it done. We do need to get one of Mrazek or McElhinney under contract for next season. I wouldn’t want to go into it without at least one proven commodity.
I think the 1st RHD to get moved will actually be Trevor Van Riemsdyk. He should garner at least what we paid for him, a 2nd round pick….maybe more. He’s the kind of steady guy who can play the #4 if needed, but is better suited in the bottom pairing.
The only reason Faulk has not been moved, IMO, is because Waddell and company have a value assigned to him and they are comfortable holding out until they get close to it. There’s no hurry in moving him. Also, he’s got a modified NTC so he sort of gets to pick where he’s going. Add in his $6 million real money salary, and some teams are gonna be out.
If the Canes can’t re-sign Ferland, I find it very difficult to believe that they’ll move Hamilton or the rights to Fox without significant over payment. The optics are just too bad…not from a “lose the trade” perspective, but from the “don’t go to Carolina because they won’t pay you/will move you on a whim” perspective. Plus we need the offense from our back end, and Faulk’s shooting woes are just as pronounced as last season.
I still think the real question is, why do we have to move any D? Are we playoff bound? We can shop the UFA market (end of season) for a F rather then moving our D. If we get an offer to good to refuse, okay, but I do not see the urgency right now. Pesce and Slavin are untouchable to me. Fox is not a guarantee. pwrlss might be right in getting something for his rights. Our management should know if he is serious about signing or not. The next month will be interesting as things start to unfold before the trade deadline.
As far as moves, a lot depends on if the team can really get in the playoff race. If your in the race then keep Ferland and Mac. Mrazek is better than his save percentage but don’t know if he can be a No 1. I’d like to see what Ned can do but again that depends on if the team is in the playoff race.
One of the D should be moved(Faulk, Fox, Ham or Pesce in that order) – I would actually look at a goalie like Quick.
Well, the Oilers got rid of their dumb GM, I’m still mad that the canes didn’t get Hall. I was hoping he would trade RNH or Leon Draisaitl