During the regular season, I am probably one of least well read Carolina Hurricanes fans. I am often in over my head trying to keep up with the pace of the NHL season for CandC and at times oblivious to what is going on in the broader Carolina Hurricanes community. The positive is that it keeps my thoughts independent and my opinions reasonably independent and sheltered from others’ ideas. The one thing (okay there are a couple others with the draft, prospect camp and free agency) that I like is that I am less busy and have a better chance to gauge others’ ideas and opinions. Prospect camp and especially the lines for autographs are phenomenal for being a part of or just being within ear shot of great Canes conversations. Lost on the rest of the league in the headlines of smaller market and lately weak attendance is how knowledgeable the core of the Carolina Hurricanes fan base is.
Because of that much of what I write is common knowledge condensed into 3-minute Canes fixes, but as is the case with any knowledgeable and passionate fan base there are some things that elicit significantly different opinions from equally intelligent fans.
Trying to fill up another day of the dead of the NHL summer, today’s post identifies and discusses a few things where I think my thoughts differ from a significant portion of the fan base:
Haydn Fleury
(Important disclaimer) IF the Canes exit training camp healthy, I think the chances of Fleury making the opening day NHL roster are slim. Ironically, I actually think that Fleury will show in training camp that he is good enough to continue his development at the NHL level. It is not about that. Rather, it is a numbers game. On the left side, the Hurricanes have Hainsey, Slavin and Hanifin who are pretty fixed and not moving. I think the same is true for Faulk and Pesce. The spot most open for competition is the last slot on the right side with Ryan Murphy as the front runner and Matt Tennyson also in the mix. Without another opening caused by an injury, Fleury seems destined for the AHL with a undefined return ticket for later in the season. Jumping Fleury into the NHL and forcing him to play on the right side for his first set of games is not ideal. And even if the Canes are short for Ryan Murphy, he cannot go back to Charlotte (would be lost on waivers), and the Hurricanes would be better served showcasing him briefly and then trading him. Injuries are of course the wild card. The other is the fact that Jaccob Slavin is comfortable on the right side, so I guess there is a chance that he could play on the right side to open a slot on the left side which fits Fleury better.
I think Fleury is NHL ready or close. I think he sees the NHL in 2016-17 to go with a ton of all situation/top 4 minutes in Charlotte. But unless an injury opens a slot, I think he starts the season in Charlotte.
Phil Di Giuseppe
He is the forgotten man. With the arrival of Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen and the draft pedigree upside of Elias Lindholm, Phil Di Giuseppe seems to have become an afterthought when crafting line combinations for 2016-17 and roles for the future past that. In a half season at the NHL level and with no boost from power play scoring, Di Giuseppe was quietly productive offensively. For 5v5 scoring his 1.79 points per 60 minutes of ice time rank second only behind Jeff Skinner’s 2.14 and well above Lindholm’s 1.04 and Teravainen’s 1.28. Per my recent post suggesting that an alternative cost-friendly way to boost scoring might be through depth rather than a pricey new first line, 30-35 points from Di Giuseppe in a depth role and without a power play ice time boost would be a net positive for increasing team scoring. The other young players are good too, but I will be watching Phil Di Giuseppe just as closely as the others in training camp.
Best guess is that it takes an injury for Di Giuseppe to crack the top 9 out of training camp, but I will be surprised if he does not push his way onto the roster and provide needed depth scoring.
Alex Nedeljkovic
I like Alex Nedeljkovic as much as everyone else. Thus far, he has done everything one could ask of him in terms of development and the challenges in front of him. As far as the chances of a 20-year old maturing into a good or even great NHL starter, Nedeljkovic has as good of a chance as anyone. But I think people can overestimate how good those chances are. I did some quick research on second round goalie draft picks from the 2007 through 2011 NHL drafts which is 5 years of picks and far enough back that even the youngest are now 23 years old. In the second round of those 5 years combined, 15 goalies were drafted. Only 4 are recognizable NHL names (Jake Allen, Jacob Markstrom, Robin Lehner, John Gibson).
Based on how he has performed thus far, Nedeljkovic’s odds are much better than 20 percent, but to call a 20-year goalie a sure thing ignores the math. And to build an NHL team assuming a 20-year goalie will automatically mature especially on a certain time table is fraught with peril.
I like Nedeljkovic’s chances to be the team’s starting goalie in 3-4 years. I would consider him when making goalie moves. But a team has 2 goalie slots, and good teams very often use both of them in today’s NHL. When Nedeljkovic hopefully arrives in a couple years, it might force adjustments, but I would not just be waiting for Ned in net. In a small way, I think Francis and his staff showed that they get this when they drafted 2 goalies in the 2016 draft despite having Nedeljkovic on the way and a couple other decent netminders in Daniel Altshuller and Callum Booth already in the system.
I think Alex Nedeljkovic does fulfill expectations as the franchise’s goalie of the future, but I think it is a normal, gradual process that looks more like 2018-19 than 2016-17.
But here is the thing…In a young man’s game like NHL hockey, great players usually do not so much develop on a schedule but rather seize an opportunity. Matt Murray did it last year in Pittsburgh. Cam Ward did it in 2005-06. Despite my prediction that calls for patience, I will be sitting on the edge of my seat in anticipation just like everyone else if an injury creates an opportunity for Alex Nedeljkovic to man a net in Raleigh this season.
Go Canes!
Well, we have to expose at least one Dman for the Expansion Draft, so either Murphy/Tennison plays 35+ games, or we have to expose Faulk. Plus last season showed ice time goes to the guy who carpes the diem the best. So Phil will climb the depth charts again
, and Hayden will get his looks, unless Murphy really steps it up.
Good stuff, Matt, and love the Carpe diem dogb!
Don’t undersell yourself Matt, you have a pretty damn good handle on CANIAC Nation and hockey in general!
We all have our personal biases, knowledge base, experience (or lack thereof in my case) etc. Because different teams, and their gms, do things quite different, why would hockey fans be all the same? We all look at situations and evaluate them from our point of view, sooooo of course we don’t all agree.
Your views on H. Fleury are spot on, Phil di also seems like a keeper, and we have a lot of possibles, maybes, and who-knows looking for a roster-spot… I’ve got no clue what the roster will look like after camp! The changes are so potentially vast (except the lack of any upgrade in net) we could be better, the same, or worse…?!! Time will tell, and I hope my doubts are not justified…
I agree with you on all three players. It is a good issue to have when players that are seemingly ready for the NHL still cannot break onto the NHL roster.
Your thoughts and opinions are great for fueling conversation, and I believe that is truly what you want this site to be about, whether we agree with you or not. What you saw yesterday was several devoted fans each at a different level of frustration looking for moves that made a bigger/different splash. As puckgod stated above, we are each looking at this from different perspectives, and having grown up in NC in the 70’s and 80’s I fall in line with the “lack thereof” category for experience. As for the goalie situation, if one of Ward and Lack aren’t going to be moved, then something needs to be done about what appears to be below average goalie coaching.
Absolutely agree with Fleury likely to spend the year in Charlotte. Hanafin was one of only a handful of players to make the jump directly to the NHL and quite frankly, his play was only ok. Lots of talent and potential but if the situation wasn’t so dire at the start of last season relative to the dearth of defensive talent in Raleigh, he never would have seen the ice at the PNC. Many have forgotten that Slavin & Pence weren’t expected to get out of Charlotte either but the ‘Canes got off to such a horrendous start – plus Wiz going down – that it forced a series of drastic moves that somehow ended up being a positive. It could have backfired horrendously just as easily with young players struggling to make the transition to the faster game. Also, there is a lot of pressure for these guys to play just as well when there is more at stake. There were no expectations last season when essentially the Canes were out of the playoffs almost before the summer was over. It will be different this season and I don’t think adding another teenager to the back line is the best move. I still think Francis will add a veteran d man….maybe someone like Carle or a similar player.
But what do you do if he blows it away in Training Camp? I may be getting my hopes to high but if he has a great camp then I am suddenly shopping Lack.
Good stuff Matt – I have a couple of contrary opinions as well. I do not believe that Haydn Fleury is any more ready than Roland McKeown….possibly even Trevor Carrick. Haydn looked good at prospects camp but he was a man among boys. I’ll be shocked if Murphy is replaced by anybody who isn’t a) under contract for 2017-18 and, b) doesn’t have the guaranteed # of expansion protection games.
The numbers are just against my boy Phil Di Giuseppe coming out of camp. He’s going to have to put up a “can’t keep me out of Raleigh” performance unless Bickell craps the bed. He may end up being Nestrasil insurance, but Nesty’s already skating pretty well. Unless some sort of trade is in the offing, the fact that PDG doesn’t have to pass through waivers makes him the odd man out.
And as much as I like Nedeljkovic, he wasn’t even one of the best goalies on the ice during prospects camp. I’d give that award to Jack Lafontaine. Jeremy Helvig was probably a close second and Callum Booth looked good as well. Neds looked a little out of sorts to me with flashes of brilliance that he’s come to be known for.
In the end, I think what you see is what you get. Ward and Lack in net. The defense is set w/Murphy as your #6 and some mix of forwards with Stalberg, Bickell, Teravainen, Aho, and Stempniak mixed in will start the season for the Canes. At least that’s my opinion.
Good article and I can’t find anything outrageous in all the other comments. All have reasonable ideas and opinions. My two cents are:
Fluery: Won’t start season in Raleigh regardless of camp unless he just blows the wheels off. Reason is we have to consider expansion draft effects and because I still believe Francis will try to add a steady veteran stay-at-home (defensive) defenseman. He will do this IMO just to insure he has someone who can calm things down on the ice if things start getting dicey. If he trades Murphy, which I hope is not done (he’s cheap and at least can fill a seventh man role as well as any other 7th in the league), then Fluery is the man if the veteran is not added.
PDG: This guy will make the team. I will believe Nesty is back when I see it. Most players coming off season ending injuries have lousy following seasons. I hope this is not the case with Nesty, but if I were a betting man I believe it will be.
Goalie: I don’t put much stock in banking on long term goalie development. I want quality now and if Ned develops, great and we have two good goalies. The problem is Ned has to play at a high level for us to determine if he is going to make it. This makes it difficult to put an experienced veteran in Charlotte. That means to me that you have to have a go to guy in the NHL backed up by a young goalie who just might blow your socks off if called upon to become the starter due to injury. Lack has this potential (Vancouver experience). If Ward falters, you have to hope Lack catches fire. If he doesn’t, you have to go out and get a STARTER (Rask, etc. type).
Well, we wanted a Detroit-style farm system with NHL-ready players waiting on board, and it’s finally starting. The first winners in this plan are the season ticket holders in Charlotte.