If you are still catching up on yesterday’s trade of Scott Darling and a sixth round draft pick to Florida for goalie James Reimer, you can find my thoughts on the trade HERE.
Last week I posted an article on the Carolina Hurricanes the upcoming free agency frenzy. That article offered sort of a checklist of the needs that the Hurricanes could be shopping to fill. If you missed it, you can find that article HERE.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe offers quick thoughts on what the Hurricanes might or might not do in the free agent market.
Possible remaining needs
One more forward?
The addition of Erik Haula added good middle-tier depth at the forward position and also brought in another potential center for a second or third line. Especially if Justin Williams returns, I do not think the Hurricanes would be in a horrible position at forward if they entered the 2019-20 season with the current group. But I also think that path leaves some risk in terms of being able to generate enough offensively especially if the team suffered an injury or two to one its few higher-end offensive players. I have long advocated for adding a legitimate C2 who leans playmaking/scoring. While I still think there is a possibility that the Hurricanes add another forward, I would be shocked to see such a player added from the top tier of the free agent market on Monday. More likely could be another trade or opportunistically picking up a center a bit later once prices fall.
Yet another goalie?
This week, the Hurricanes added two goalies via trade to go with Alex Nedeljkovic. Yet, I do not think it is impossible that the Hurricanes add one more. A Reimer/Nedeljkovic could work but would leave a lot to chance. Nedeljkovic seems to have the ‘it’ factor of an NHL starter and did all he could do in the AHL during the 2018-19 to show that he was ready to step up to the NHL level. But rookie goalies, no matter how promising at the AHL level, are a bit of a crap shoot. And very recently Reimer played at the level of a capable, even if not elite, starter. The question for the 31-year old is whether a sub-par 2018-19 season was the beginning of the end for him or if a rebound is in the offing. Some might say that the situation and the wild cards currently slotted for the crease are not significantly different than last summer. I actually think that is true. But I still think that if the team gets the opportunity to increase the odds of solid goaltending that it should take it.
Doing deals
Most likely (at least initially) is nothing
A good starting point, even if not particularly exciting, is to acknowledge that the most likely result for the Hurricanes on Monday especially is nothing. Over the weekend, I posted the following on Twitter:
It tends to have a slightly negative feeling the day it happens and teams (theoretically) improve, with longer-term prioritized, I hope every one of these high-end names (except Aho :-)) signs in the Eastern Conference for $12M each.
— Canes and Coffee (@CanesandCoffee) June 28, 2019
This might sound odd, but the best possible long-term outcome for Monday could be if the bidding wars for top players go to the extreme and Metropolitan Division foes win the massively risky contracts that result.
But what might the Canes do?
Here is a quick list of moves both reasonably likely and very unlikely.
Makes sense: The deal with the highest probability continues to be re-signing Petr Mrazek. Signing him could necessitate trading Reimer and/or Forsberg especially if the team decides it wants Nedeljkovic to become at least the backup in the 2019-20 season. But the time is still there to do that.
The pipe dream: Of the bigger names out there, Joe Pavelski is still the one that could make some sense. As an older player, he might be willing to consider a two or three-year deal, and I think he could be exactly the catalyst needed for a second scoring line in addition to a big boost for the power play and more leadership. Unfortunately, he seems to have added only a short list of destinations outside of San Jose which, if true, would take him out of play for the Canes.
A better risk/reward ratio: The Hurricanes are unlikely to play in the top tier. The risk is incredibly high there anyway. But might the team lean forward and sign a middle tier forward who can add some offense? That group could include players like Ryan Dzingel and Gustav Nyquist.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Could the Hurricanes surprise again and win a top-tier free agent?
2) What do you see as the chances that the Hurricanes still re-sign Petr Mrazek despite now having three goalies seemingly competing for two goalie slots?
3) From the more middle tier of forwards, who do you like?
4) Who has predictions for Monday and free agency in general?
Go Canes!
DW has made smart financial trades while improving the club at the same time. I wouldn’t expect anything too extreme in the free agency period. Last week I had a hunch we would trade Darling’s salary for goalie Anderson (ended up being Reimer) and hey that helps our 1B situation (or potential for a follow up trade).
I’ll ice my predictions after this and say we sign one more goalie, and that we end up with a 2C in the next few days. You can never have enough NHL quality centers, and we have guys who can move to the wing if needed. There are still teams bumping against the cap and we are in prime territory to help. We may be surprised who is being dangled under the radar.
I see two needs that need to be filled:
1) An enforcer/protector.
2) A right-handed face-off player that could also help on the power play.
It should be an exciting day!
Agree on adding toughness, though maybe Foegle or Saku can add that to their game. We have physical players but only Martinook is a ‘send a message’ player.
Would really like resign Ferland. I think he is likely to back to Western Canada – maybe the Cannucks.
Would like to add Lehner or preferably Mrazek. Petr has a good record in the playoffs.
Also, the canes will keep money aside for Justin Williams.
Random thoughts: 1. One constraint that is overlooked UFA day is the need for slots for AHLers to matriculate to on the NHL team. UFA signings are adds w/o players on the way out. That has to be a significant factor for “the committee”. 2. Two names I expected hear more of, Potularski and Jurco, have been totally out the conversation anywhere. 3. Saw a rumor on prohockeyrumors.com that Ron Francis is being considered for a job in Seattle. He got his last paycheck from the Canes yesterday.
I am somewhat surprised that Jurco hasn’t signed anywhere yet – I expect he will be in a later tier of signings when teams know their cap space. But I think putting him on a line centered by Haula with Necas on the right might capture the magic those two had in CLT. Pipedreams..
It is hard to imagine Poturalsky won’t be in the organization, but he needs to see a clear shot to the NHL in his next signing. He has never gotten that with the Canes organization in spite of his success in CLT. If I was to guess he will sign with PIT on a 2-way and rejoin Vellucci. He will get his shot with the Pens to play on NHL ice.
Matt – this is really important! LOL!
It’s not a “crap shoot”.
The game of luck and dice is called “craps”. It is a “craps shoot” when you are referring to taking a chance (although I recognize there is risk of catching splatter one must accept if you are going to unload a .357 into a pile of manure).
Alternately you can compound the word into a single word “crapshoot”.
Now back to your regularly scheduled programming. 😀
Craps is a game of luck, now you tell me. I guess that explains all the times I went to the casino ATM.
1. I do not see a top-tier signing – it seems anathema to Waddell’s style, which is to wheel and deal, and Dundon’s control of the purse strings. Nevermind that we are 8 players short of a full roster with $22M in cap space and Aho to sign. Just not feasible.
2. LeBrun was saying Mrazek or Varlamov – with Varlamov apparently joining the Isles, now it is Mrazek or Lehner. Regardless, there will be goalies left standing without a chair when the music stops – and we can get a decent on knowing we have 3 potential backups in the stable.
But I don’t think Waddell is going to overpay or overextend for a goalie contract.
3. I am not familiar with them – but I expect the addition to be via trade (maybe involving one of the goalies) and not signing.
4. Pavelsku will apparently sign with DAL, it came out last night.
1) That would be a true surprise.
2) 40%. I think Mrazek is still under consideration.
3) Nyquist or Donskoi look good on paper. I do think following his best season that Nyquist will find a team to pay more money and/or term than makes sense—at 4 years/$5M he would be decent.
4) I don’t have a prediction so much as a watchpoint. If Williams signs elsewhere, then it changes the perspective of most of the other moves so far.
I have the feeling that the Canes are set in goal. I may be wrong about this, but I suspect the team will roll the dice with what we have, which is a bit too little, vs. adding another goalie to the mix, which is a bit too much.
Not unless they offload one of the goalies in a trade, which is unlikely given the number of UFA goalies.
The Hockeybuzz rumor machine, aided by the Canadian media I am sure, are claiming that the Canes are trying to offload Aho’s contract dispute to the canadiens, I sure hope not, and I figured the Canadian media need to create a few dicy stories.
If there was any rumor to that, even if the Aho signing drags on, it will have significant negative impact on the atmosphere around the team and the fans I think.
That signing should’ve been wrapped up last fall, now I just hope that a signing can be done in the next couple of days.
If I were shopping, there are a few potentially low cost insurance guys, like our old buddy Sakera, just bought out by the Oilers but has good chemistry with Faulk and it looks like the Oilers manage to ruin player stats regardless of the player.
Gusev is the big Russian enigma of the off season. Vegas is trying to fit him under the cap but are having a hard time and he had an exceptional tournament with the Russian national team.
Maybe getting a countryman for Svech would be beneficial, though we’re still covering Semin’s luxury retirement.
Then there’s Donskoi as a middle top 6/9 winger with some skill.
I always liked Sakura. With our depth I do not think we need him but really good player.
Make that Sakera. Spell check helped me again.
The Hockeybuzz runner machine reminds me of the JFK quote “Where there is smoke there is a smoke making machine.” The only way Aho goes anywhere in Canada is through an offer sheet, which is out of “the committee’s” hands at this point in time. Aho will sign when his agent tells him to sign, not before. I’ll recommend a pass on Sekera, due to age and the past 2 injury ririddled seasons (torn ACL, torn achilles tendon). Like you, I would take the Sekera we had before in a moment.
1) don’t see it.
2) I agree with ct, 40%
3) Nyquist
4) should be an interesting day as the dominos fall. Panarin could still go to one of the NY teams. Bob to FL.
My wish, resign Mrazek and Ferland.
How about Patrick Maroon instead of Ferland? https://www.nhl.com/player/pat-maroon-8474034
I think we need an enforcer. Not that I like fighting but somebody who will have the opponent not try to take liberties. Maroon, Ferland or Reaves could work. Still would like Ferland for continuity.
Sakera has landed in Dallas.
The rumor is that the Canadiens are threatening to offersheet Aho and are willing to give us Druin for him (never been a big fan of Druin, definitely far inferior to Aho), I’m not too concerned.
https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2019/07/ducks-expected-to-sign-andrew-poturalski.html
ANA is his opportunity to make it onto NHL ice on a regular basis.
It would truly suck, goalie Anderson style, if we let the man go to the Ducks (yes, we drafted Andreson, let him walk to the Ducks, now he’s Tor’s #1).
No chance the Canes sign a big name FA.
Mrazek will sign, IMO. When he sees the offers coming in I think he will choose to come back to where he knows he is wanted. If not, I think the Canes stand pat. I can’t see them paying significant money for another goalie with mental health issues. Didn’t work out last time.
If the Canes sign anyone, like a middle tier forward, it will be in about a week when the dust has settled and prices are realistic.
Vegas just grabbed Patrick Brown
https://twitter.com/DarrenDreger/status/1145741583628865537
Columbus pays Nyquist 4yrs @ $5.5M per Bob McKenzie. Too rich for the Canes blood.
Hahaha! Aho offer sheet. A big F you to Dundon. Loaded with signing bonuses which I believe Dundon will have to pay even if there is a lockout.
None the less, it’s not that much in annual cost at $8.45M. The happiest man in the house has to be Waddell as he doesn’t have to keep calling Aho’s agent with lowball offers. It’s easy for me as a fan as Dundon either signs the thing or I find another team to root for.
Waddell’s comment in the press conference was classic – he said something along the lines that he will have a better summer because he won’t be trying to negotiate that contract. 😀
DW also said he expected the offer to be more. If TD thinks this is a win he just alienated everyone. Players, coaches (although not many left) and fans.
And yes – the signing bonuses are paid even in a lockout season. That is why all of the big-dollar contracts have been structured that way the past few seasons.
I jam sure we will discuss this tomorrow. TD, in trying to be cute, and low balling everybody just got his rear handed to him. This contract should have been done a long time ago. Why mess around with a clear top guy. I am very disappointed they put themselves in this position. At least they know the contract value now. They rolled the dice and lost.
Agreed.
As far sa I am concerned The ultimate test on whether TD is cheap has always been the Aho contract.
I can dig up a post from this site from over a year ago when I said that. The cards are on the table, what is the owner going to do.
Every CLT UFA signed elsewhere: Brown (VGK), Poturalski (ANA), Didier (BOS), Jurco (EDM).
Jurco signed for $750,000 – we seriously didn’t want to offer him that?
Anyway, the cupboard down there is slimming down.
Waddell seemed to be pretty clear this afternoon that they will match the Habs’ offer sheet to Aho, although I am on the same page that lts is – fail to match and I will looking for a different team (if I continue to follow hockey at all).
I have no doubt they will match the offer. I’m sure Dundon is annoyed, but he did this to himself with lowball offers.
On a separate note, Assistant GM Brian Tatum left the team.
Today is just nothing short of sad in my book.
Why didn’t the Canes make qualifying offers to any of the guys that won them a Calder cup, plus let their cup winning coach go. If you are going to build a budget team, you develop talent, but developing budget talent for other teams that will get you nothing.
Jurco and Poturolski were as close to an NHL quality talent on a budget as I could have imagined, Jurco having chemistry with Necas, who now may no longer want to play for this organization. All over 750K? Seriously?
And the relationship with Aho will never be the same, even if the team matches an offer sheet. He indicated he was repeatedly lowballed his talent.
Signing Mrazek is not going to change the outcome of today for me, they better have something good up their collective sleeves.
Poturalski and Jurco were UFAs. Qualifying offers weren’t an option for them. Both wanted a clear path to the NHL. We couldn’t make that promise. Didier was far down on our defense depth chart. Brown needed to move on as well. Aho used the system to earn $21million dollars in the next fiscal year. He and his agent played the system well. Kudos to them. The total value and AAV of the deal are great for the Canes, even though the early cash flow will effect the teams budget in the next 2 years. Interestingly, the NHL does have revenue sharing. While it is kept secret I find it ironic that the Habs will be donating to a fund that could help the Canes in a financially down year caused by the signing bonus(es) falling in the same year.
The guys you mention were UFAs and never in the Canes plans. Aho’s father is a GM in the Finnish league. If any player has a background in the business of hockey it’s Aho. While I’m sure he wishes it wouldn’t have come to this I doubt it will make a difference to him in the future. He has a good contract and he’ll be 27 when he’s a UFA again and have the chance to sign another big deal.
Is anyone seeing a pattern. How many coaches have we lost now. TD said he wanted to win, by letting a star get offer sheeted. Shrewd business is not chasing people away.
3, if you count Peters. That seems to be an outlier certainly not part of any pattern. He went home to western Canada. Bales went to Buffalo to rejoin Botteril whom he had worked for before in Pittsburgh. Goalie coach turnover is routine in the NHL. Vellucci went to work for Pittsburgh (and Jim Rutherford) who he worked with for a long time. He appears to be heir apparent to the head coaching job with the Pens. The connection seems to be Pittsburgh. More specifically Jim Rutherford who has a habit of jabbing Karmanos any chance he gets.
This year we lost a video coach, a goalie coach, two assistant GMs (one of whom was our AHL coach).
But the offer sheet came on a difference in term. Aho wanted a 5-year contract (which he now has) so he could become a UFA at the end of this next signing. The team wanted the full 8 years they could offer. But they would have had to offer 10+ over 8 years to make that happen.
This is the way the CBA is supposed to work – players have rights and teams have rights.
We’re are almost certainly going to match this offer. Structure isn’t ideal but AAV is more than reasonable. No one likes to know how sausage is made and this process became too public, but none of that matters after the offer is matched.
Everyone who is upset over how this played out should focus more on the outcome. It’s just the business of hockey. I can’t imagine any of the parties involved are any where near as affected by this as we are.
I know you are right. Count me as upset though. You have a guys who busts his rear, is totally committed and cares about the team. You pay a guy like that who is so valuable. The optics are just terrible. We low ball him and he eventually gets a offer sheet which I believe we could had avoided. We set that up by trying to get a cheap contract. This could have been done so long ago, yet we create an issue which did not need to exist. I know it is business but I just think about how I would feel, to put that much effort in and then be low balled. Its insulting. I totally believe we will match it, but does Aho have a different attitude of this team now? Yes, its millions, and they are professional, BUT people are still human. There will be resentment. I just feel it could have been handled so much better. The brain trust has done well and I agree with most things they do. I did not like the de Hann trade but I understood why. This I give a failing grade to. Room for many opinions here, business vs. emotional.
At this point in time, I am SURPRISINGLY content!
I doubt that the musical chairs game is over.
AHO will be happy, rich, and still a CANE!
And most likely the silly season ISN’T OVER!
I’m hoping for at least one more forward added, and no doubt the lost coaches will be replaced!
I refuse to worry…TOO MUCH, until Saturday or Sunday…grinnnn!