The stage is set for a long overdue first playoff meeting between the Carolina Hurricanes and Washington Capitals. The two teams should be bitter rivals, but because of mismatches when each team was good and the lack of playoff meetings to fuel the rivalry the rivalry really is not what it could and should be. In that regard, the first round tussle is a match made in heaven.
The schedule was announced today and can be found HERE.
Part 1 of my series preview will take a first look at the Washington Capitals.
1) Depth in terms of scoring production
Showing zero signs of slowing in his mid-30s, Alexander Ovechkin again led the NHL in goal scoring with 51 goals. But the Capitals were actually balanced rather than top heavy in terms of scoring. The Caps had seven players score 20 or more goals on the way to finishing fifth in the NHL in scoring. The Hurricanes by contrast had only four players reach the 20 goal mark. Add in a power play that finished 12th in the NHL and arguably underperformed relative to its talent level, and the Capitals are clearly a team that can put the puck in the net. In my opinion, what separates the Caps from the Canes is having two high-end playmakers in Nicklas Backstrom and Evgeny Kuznetsov who can generate scoring chances out of thin air.
Upshot for the Hurricanes: The Hurricanes obviously need to generate offense and score to win but does not want to get into a series where they just trade high-end chances with the Capitals. That type of series very likely ends badly.
2) A blue line that can be attacked
Even with Vezina winner Braden Holtby in net, the Capitals finished 20th in the NHL in terms of scoring allowed. The Caps have a great anchor in John Carlson and a couple other capable veterans, but the group is more capable than elite in total. If the Hurricanes can attack with speed off the rush and/or pressure the puck deep in the offensive zone, I think potential is there to exploit the Capitals blue line.
Upshot for the Hurricanes: If the Hurricanes can get through the neutral zone with speed, I think the Capitals blue line can be vulnerable.
3) Rising goaltending
In net, the Capitals have a Vezina Trophy winner in Braden Holtby. Somewhat like the team in total, Holtby had an up and down 2018-19 campaign. But also tracking the broader team, Holtby rounded into form and played some of best hockey late in the season with a save percentage of .921 since the beginning of March. Holtby can be very good when he gets going.
Upshot for the Hurricanes: The key in terms of scoring for the Hurricanes is scratching and clawing for position around the net for screens and deflections, rebounds and any other kind of scoring chance and ugly goal.
4) The advantage system-wise heading into the series
The Capitals won both halves of the home and home series last week and will enter the series with the advantage. What Washington did successfully in those two game was keep the Hurricanes from moving the puck up the ice with any pace. The Capitals did forecheck occasionally at times, but they also had stretches where their focus seemed to be on defending the receipt of the first pass. The result for the Hurricanes was disjointed play through the middle of the rink with too many turnovers, ineffective dump ins and difficulty getting the timing right for an aggressive forechecking brand of Canes hockey.
Upshot for the Hurricanes: I think Brind’Amour and his staff have work to do on this one. The Canes to make tactical adjustments to better break the puck out of their own end and get moving north-south with speed.
What say you Canes fans?
1) What is your assessment of the Washington Capitals in total?
2) Which of the four points that I highlighted do you see as being most critical in deciding the series?
Go Canes!
1. It will be a tough matchup. And it will take all 7 games to beat them.
2. Point 4. Getting the puck in at speed. And also, not letting Ovetchkin shot from his office unhindered.
1. They are a good team–but not a dominant team offensively. I think last season should give the Canes plenty of optimism. Columbus took a 2-0 lead in Washington. Pittsburgh had a 1-0 lead and was tied in the series 2-2. Tampa lost the first two in Tampa and then took a 3-2 series lead. Even Vegas won the first game of the finals. The Capitals can be taken. But . . .
2. Holtby is the biggest key by far. Grubaeur had a fantastic 17-18 and was given the crease in the playoffs. Grubaeur was not nearly as good in the first round giving up 8 goals on 49 shots. Holtby replaced Grubauer and played great, saving the Capitals from a first-round exit. After Tampa took the lead in the conference finals Holtby shut out the most explosive team in hockey twice. The Canes need to figure out Holtby to win the series.
The Caps are essentially the same team as last year when they took it all. Right?
Welllllll. Not exactly.
Ovi was a man possessed in the playoffs last year. He now has the coveted ring. Can he recreate the frenzy of last year? A year older now, is he losing half a step? He plays a physical game. Is the wear and tear telling on him? We’ll see.
Last year Tom Wilson was playing for two things; the ring and a contract. Now that he has both, what’s his motivation?
Orpik, Orlov, and company. An aging group without an elite player among them, save Ovi. Each now has a ring to show for that magic season. Can Ovi be the glue guy? Was he ever a glue guy?
The glue guy was a man named Trotz. Barry Trotz held that group together. Ovi is a one man show. He is not a leader.
The Caps won the Cup. Magic. Magic happens. It did last year when the Caps won it all.
Ovi has always enjoyed special dispensation from the owner of the Caps.
Was there a problem brewing during that magic season? Was that problem a power struggle between Ovi and Barry? Is that why Trotz magically disappeared before the champagne went flat?
Trotz magically re-appeared as the glue guy for a bunch of non-elite players who played way over their heads this season, as his teams are wont to do.
And the Caps? They had best watch out. A storm is coming for them.
This is a really nice article from the Caps’ perspective that compares the two teams. It highlights how much better the Canes relative to the league than the Cap and, indeed, the Caps are below average for the league in these categories. The only category that the Caps excel at – scoring (of course!) and that is with three elite goal scorers (Ovechkin, Kuznetsov, and Carlson).
https://russianmachineneverbreaks.com/2019/04/07/dont-sleep-on-the-carolina-hurricanes/
The Caps aren’t that scary when you look at those numbers and graphs. The difference-maker in our regular season series with the Caps, as you point out, Matt, was their ability to disrupt our playing moving the puck out of the d-zone.
I truly think with the right adjustments to fix our d-zone exits (a coaching challenge to RBA) we can take that advantage away from the Caps, and the Canes could very well take the series.
And a correction to both Matt and the article. We have 5 20-scorers – people. Nino has 23 goals in his time between the Wild and the Canes.