Starting probably on Tuesday, I will put together a 2019-20 Carolina Hurricanes season preview series.
But Today’s Daily Cup of Joe is another from the random category in taking a look at a couple different salary situations for the Hurricanes.
In today’s NHL where the majority of teams are pushing up against the salary cap on a yearly basis, the value or worth of a player is not about how good that player is. Rather, it is about how good that player is relative to what their salary is. Even good players can be bad for building a winning hockey team if their salary is out of line with their role. And middle of the roster players or even depth players can be incredibly valuable if they have a fair or discounted salary.
Below are a few observations on salary as relates to the Carolina Hurricanes and recent decisions.
Noah Hanifin versus Haydn Fleury
Noah Hanifin departed the Hurricanes with Elias Lindholm in a blockbuster trade that returned Micheal Ferland, Dougie Hamilton and Adam Fox. The word on the street was that the Hurricanes at least explored contract extensions for both Hanifin and Lindholm but balked at the asking prices. Hanifin signed for six years at $4.95 million once he landed in Calgary. That salary was a significant bet on what Hanifin was yet to become. When he departed the Hurricanes, he was still a third pairing defenseman with enough rawness to his game that becoming more than a #5 defenseman was not a sure thing. And therein lies the bet. If Hanifin plateaued as a #5 or ‘meh’ #4 defenseman, that $4.95 salary was way out of line. If he took a leap forward and was suddenly the legitimate top pairing defenseman that his draft pedigree suggested was possible, the $4.95 million salary would represent at least a modest discount. The Hurricanes chose to avert this risk and not commit to six years of hopefully.
At the other end of the spectrum is Haydn Fleury. Fleury’s development has been modest step-wise improvement. Combine that with the fact that he has not contributed offensively, and Haydn Fleury is still playing for less than $1 million per year. If one considers Fleury to be even just a capable #6 defenseman, that price is a bargain in today’s NHL.
If one puts aside future potential for a moment, I think there is a legitimate argument to be made that Fleury and his contract are as good or better than Hanifin and his contract within the constraints of trying to build a winning roster for under the salary cap. Again, this is not about quality of play. It is about quality of play relative to salary. Again, this does depend on where Hanifin peaks which is what the Flames were betting on, but the point is that salary does matter in terms of valuing a player.
Justin Faulk
In addition to simple value, risk versus reward is also incredibly important. For a one-year deal risk is minimal. Even at a high salary, the one-year term means that if a team misjudges a player, it can quickly just move on. But in the case of long-term deals for high salaries. Risk versus reward matters, and that is where Justin Faulk’s next contract missed with the Hurricanes. Faulk is a player who is coming off a solid even if maybe not spectacular 2018-19 season. But significantly, he had two ‘meh’ at best seasons prior to that. And even more significantly in my book, Faulk’s next contract will start when he is 28 years old and finish when he is 35 years old. The $6.5 million yearly price tag for Faulk could maybe be a fair price if Faulk play’s to the top of his ability, but I just do not see a scenario where that price ends up being a significant discount. But if Faulk regresses back to his 2016-17 or 2017-18 level of play, he would suddenly be way overpriced. Or if Faulk hits a wall physically at 31 or 32 years of age, that would still leave a lot of contract at $6.5 million per year. So it is like the ceiling is receiving fair value for a top end defenseman salary, but the floor is potentially being locked into a bad contract for a long time. At that point, the team opted not to take the risk.
Bargains in hand
Meanwhile, the Hurricanes have Jaccob Slavin and Brett Pesce signed for $5.3 million and $4.1 million respectively and those contracts end when Slavin is 30 and Pesce is 28 which is before age risk becomes significant. Gardiner is signed for $4.1 million. Only Dougie Hamilton who was signed before he was acquired earns more at just under $6 million per year. In addition, the Hurricanes have Teuvo Teravainen signed at forward for an inexpensive $5.4 million per year. Those types of contracts are instrumental in building a good team in a salary cap world.
And avoiding overpriced contracts
Another key component to success in a salary cap world is avoiding contracts that are overpriced. Buyouts result in cap space being spent for nothing, and bad contracts take more salary than necessary for a given slot on the depth chart. When one scrolls through some teams’ salaries on CapFriendly, they have numerous overpriced contracts. The Hurricanes roster is pretty neat in that regard. The teams still have to pay Alexander Semin $2.3 million for this year and next before his contract finally comes off the books. In addition, to rid itself of Scott Darling’s contract, the team took on two years of James Reimer for $3.4 million per year. That is overpriced for a backup goalie and risky given Reimer’s sub-par 2018-19 season. But again, that deal was about getting someone that might either help or be tradeable in the future. In addition, the Canes do also have Patrick Marleau’s buyout on the books for the 2019-20 season, but that was not a contract error. Rather, Marleau represents the team utilizing its cap space to basically buy a first-round draft picks from the Toronto Maple Leafs.
While there is certainly an element of just doing favorable deals to the Hurricanes current cap situation, I think it is pretty clear that the brain trust gets the importance of considering a player’s contract in calculating his worth to the point where it is willing to part with good players if ‘player value to contract cost’ and ‘risk versus reward’ calculations are not favorable.
What say you Canes fans?
1) What are your thoughts on Justin Faulk’s current contract? Would you have considered re-signing him for seven years at $6.5 million per year?
2) Not counting entry-level contracts, which of the Hurricanes bargain contracts most benefits the team going forward?
3) Is it actually possible that Haydn Fleury is more helpful than Noah Hanifin in terms of building a winner simply because the difference in terms of salary is significantly more than the difference in terms of level of play?
Go Canes!
Though overall I agree that the Canes are in a decent cap position for the future I do not see this season in particular as an example of such.
The Canes have a total of around 9 million in dead cap space (the PM deal with Tor + Semin buy out + $700K of Faulk’s contract).
If you count at least 2 of the 3.5 million for Reimer’s contract as overpaying for a backup goalie that’s 11 million, roughly 15% of the available cap. With goalies like Pickard on the waiver wire and Neuvert looking for a job, which is unusual I grant you, it’s unlikely that a team is going to trade for Reimer’s contract. They would like Forsberg perhaps but he is exactly the type of value goalie the team would want, if his preseason play carries over.
To win it all, a team needs game breaking type players, not just good value players.
If that theory is correct the Leafs will go far, if not, they will fail spectacularly.
Outside of Aho, and hopefully Svech, the Canes may have good value contracts, but do not have a lot of game breaking talent, opting instead for counting on quantity, see for instance the logjam on third pairing D and in goal.
Is Faulk at 4.8 million and 20G worse than Fleury at 800K and 0 G (cost per goal for Faulk is around 500K, cost per goal for Fleury is infinite). A third pairing D man that makes a difference at that salary is a bargain, one that does not make a difference is a waste of money.
Faulk’s contract after this season is a bit of a risk, but I would’ve taken it if he were willing to come down a year or two.
Fleury has been a disappointment for awhile, though I view him less critically than some, but it’s true that he doesn’t really bring anything to the team, no specific talent or role, just meh all round.
I’m glad the Canes do not have a super costly goalie contract like the Canadiens, or an Eric Carlson contract (good but overpriced). Tor will either win it all or fail miserably.
Every team takes calculated risks, I’m worried the Canes are too heavy on average talent and too light on gamebreaking talent, but I certainly think this bunch of jerks could sort it out.
If you compare the Canes roster to that of Tor or Tampa Bay, or even the Caps, you definitely think that theirs must be a lot more pricy than ours, given the number of star players on those rosters. Fact is that this is not the case.
On the other hand, the Canes, despite their lack of NHL network darlings, made it further than both those teams in the playoffs last spring.
Was it a miracle thing and will the expected stats catch up, or will the bunch of jerks defy the traditional wisdom, second year running.
So, do you really need “game breakers” to win? I don’t think St. Louis had any game breakers. I wouldn’t call anyone on Boston a game breaker either. If you would change the term game breakers to highly skilled I would agree 100%. The Canes are still short on skill up front.
Good point.. a balanced team can go a long way. Team rather the a few super stars. TML will be interesting.
The term on Faulk was more of a problem than the cost, IMO. I think being part of a winning team and having a coach like Brind’Amour reignited Faulk’s game. The reality was Faulk wasn’t going to give a hometown discount, and after Dundon’s spending frenzy there was no money for him. Five or maybe six years at $6.5? You bet.
As of Calgary’s visit to Carolina last winter Hanifin was still a third pairing defenseman who also played on the PK. I did think he looked more confident and solid than when he was here in Raleigh, but unless his play advances that’s a bad contract. As far as Fleury goes I thought he was solid in the preseason except for his stint on his off side. Story is he put on a significant amount of good weight in the offseason. He’s a punching bag for a large portion of the Canes fanbase, and will face even more heat now that Faulk is gone. Fleury is going to play somewhere. It’s just a matter of when.
1) Faulk: Where we might miss him is the PK, since 2 of Canes top 4 are really not PKers (Gardiner and Dougie). But the term of Faulk’s contract was absolutely high risk. When Faulk was at his worst, he seemed a step slow – which makes his term over age 30 worrisome in today’s NHL.
2) Slavin’s contract is the starting point for building an top-5 blueline. Pesce’s is just as good. Those two players on those contracts allow the team to move players as needed (i.e. CDH out and Gardiner in) to build a quality blue line each season.
3) At the time, I think moving Hanifin was right. Time will tell. Also what happens to Dougie after this season when he has one year remaining. I have a feeling that Canes are not going to pay the price of his next contract.
There is no question to me that there is a far more ruthless a brand of value/cost analysis going on now in Raleigh – maybe more than in any other city in the league – and it resembles what Matt describes.
It seems like we would rather not take the risk of a “miss” with an expensive or lengthy contract – and it seems like the real risk appears to be in length – and instead look for players where there is far more likelihood and opportunity to out-play on the upside. That way, you’re far more likely to end up much closer to the Cap in terms of actual value received.
It makes too much sense. It’s a classic arbitrage.
It’s also a system designed to sustain received-value over an extended period of time. It’s not a single-season strategy; and general league concepts like having a “window to win” or “rebuilding” don’t
I love it.
Fair points. I mean, we may be witnessing the NHL model of the New England Patriots circa 2000. We have an owner and management group willing to evolve and go against the grain. They want to build a winning formula with players on fair value, knowing full well their shelf life, while stockpiling the cupboard with players who fit the ‘wins after replacement’ model.
This is why so many folks hate the Patriots, and could be why the old school hockey crowd frowns upon the Canes.
1. I would not have touched the term/dollars of Faulk’s contract. Congrats to Faulk for getting it but that is one contract that will not age well.
2. In terms of contracts – I think they are all good contracts; not one of them stands out because not one of them is overpriced. I do think the Marleau buyout didn’t play out well – but that was done early and we didn’t know the opportunities that would open subsequently. We could have bought Darling out directly but would have been paying him for 4 long miserable years. What we got was a backup goalie who has a solid body of work behind him who could ultimately be a trade chit. While his contract is high for a backup, there is other value there.
3. Without a doubt Fleury at <$1M is a better deal than Hanifin at near $5M and more valuable to the Canes by a Jake Gardiner. Tracy made a good point during last night's game – Fleury had recovered the puck behind the net and opted to pass it out along the boards. Tripp said for a player drafted high who is known for his skating ability he should have skated it out. I think this was very revealing about Fleury's mindset. In the AHL I believe that he would have skated it out – I saw him do so all the time there. But he was afraid to lose the puck off his stick in the d-zone – that is a much more obvious and uglier error than the errant pass he made. He is playing better, he is playing more physical, he is pinching – but he is still playing to not make mistakes. I absolutely agree with lts that he will play somewhere – watching former Canes prospects this preaseason getting chances with different coaches who have different styles than RBA and finding success.
Went to check up on some former Charlotte players to see how they fared. Carrick and Poturalski were both waived and sent to the AHL by SJ and Anaheim respectively. I know Carrick cleared. Not sure about Poturalski. Saarela was also sent to the AHL by Chicago. Doesn’t look like the Canes whiffed on those three.
Zykov looks to be in the mix in LV. Even fought yesterday! We’ll see how he does in the regular season.
I expect both Poturalski and Saarela will both be back with the NHL clubs. Zykov has done well with Vegas, as has Roy.
Meanwhile Brown, who saw a fair amount of time with the Canes under both Peters and RBA was waived and is back in the AHL – so that kind of works both ways.
It was only technically a fight for Zykov. Dude just held on while Kane punched. Didn’t catch the SJS/VGK game yesterday, but it sounds like Kane lost his cool early on and never regained it. That’s gonna be a fun rivalry for a while.
1) Faulk is a 30+ point guy. I did not want to move him. I believe keeping him this year would have been good even if 1 year rental. 6.5 okay but not for 7 years. 5 could have worked.
2) I can’t single one out, TT, Slavin, Pesce and Gardiner are good contracts which most benefits the team.
3) yes, Hayden has been playing well so far this year. I think he may make the turn of being helpful to this team. No scoring, yet, but not many gaffs. He has looked much more solid defensively. It takes time. He may be coming around. Pretty sure he makes the team. He has not progressed as quickly as many had hoped, which makes him a lightning rod for criticism.
Sure Fleury is going to play somewhere at sometime. I vote this year with the Pens.
Maybe our Hayden does become a good NHL player but …….
Good points, I think the NHL network is not going to like a league without a Crosby or Matthews or a similar posterboy to lose their excrement over. Superheros sell tickets, ads and merchandise so they will forever be the darlings of the media.
I think the jury is still out whether you need game breaking difference makers to win or whether you can tune up a group of talented players that can defend the superstars and utilize the weak spots created by overpaying at one position.
Is hockey a game of strongest link or weakest link? I’ve heard both, and this year is going to be a great demonstration. I honestly have no idea what the answer is, but the problem is fascinating.
1. raleightj hit it on the nose for me. No way I want Faulk for 7 years at 6.5 mil per year. Also, most of the money is up front and all the years he has a no trade clause.
2. I like Slavin, Pesce and Gardiner contracts. All are reasonable both in dollars and term. With proper development of defense prospects (Bean, Priskie and the like) between now and when Slavin’s and Pesce’s contracts run out we should be able to replace them if resigning them turns out to not be in our best interest.
3. Hayden IMO has the ability to be a very good defenseman on the defensive side of the game (even ala at a de Haan level of defense), but needs to really turn up his aggression and do what raleightj suggests and use his skating ability more. Even if his offense remains at a deHaan level, if he can be a shutdown type defenseman who can move the puck IMO he will be a valued defenseman. In regards to him versus Hanifin, Hanifin will get more offensive points (assists playing with high caliber forwards and power play time), but Fleury won’t be any worse than Hanifin on defense IMO and could be a lot better.
Just my opinions. I usually take a more optimistic view of players than some others. So, take that into account. My ideas don’t turn out to be too bad once in a while. It’s just that the rest of the time they uh…I guess the word is “stink.” Look at it this way. I’m making all you guys and gals look good.