After eight years of playoff misses and a recent tendency to doom the season in October and November, anything short of clearly good is likely to stir up some combination of anxiety, paranoia and bad deja vu in Carolina Hurricanes fans.
The Hurricanes 4-4-2 start is not bad, but it is not so clearly good as to indicate that the 2017-18 season will be a new kind of story. And while it is possible that the current season follows recent history and goes south, there are also reasons to believe that the next leg is up.
Here are reasons to think that 4-4-2 is a foundation from which the 2017-18 Carolina Hurricanes will ultimately rise higher.
1) Recent history suggests the team will start clicking by early December
In both of the past two seasons, the Hurricanes have figured it out and played an extended stretch of good hockey but not until December and not until a huge hold had already been dug. In that regard, treading water at 4-4-2 or similar for October and maybe even November could be considered a positive. If the team could do that and then follow up by finding a higher gear in December as in recent years, then a playoff push seems likely.
2) The team is still incredibly young and has the potential to grow as the season progresses
The Hurricanes’ lineup is still chock full of young players who theoretically still have room to improve. It is not inconceivable that things suddenly click for Noah Hanifin just like they did for Elias Lindholm at about the midway point of the 2016-17 season. Key players Haydn Fleury, Brett Pesce, Jaccob Slavin and Sebastian Aho all have two or fewer seasons of NHL experience and could still improve.
3) Things have not clicked and the record is still decent
One could make a case that the Hurricanes are currently playing in the low end of the range possible for the team. Neither special teams unit is clicking yet. The offense has struggled sporadically. And starting goalie Scott Darling is playing below the level he played at during the past two years. I would also say that the team has yet to develop an identity and/or find a repeatable formula for winning. Even modest progress on some of these fronts could boost the Hurricanes to a higher level of play.
4) Francis has a move or two in him if needed
By making key additions without spending a ton of high-end futures, Francis maybe kept some trade collateral in his pocket such that he can make a move or two during the season if that is what it will take to stay in the playoff chase.
5) The schedule gets easier
Through ten games, the Hurricanes have played a tough schedule. Six of ten were on the road, and the slate thus far has included a high number of teams playing well early in 2017-18.
What say you Caniacs?
1) Which of these potential positives could have the biggest impact on the rest of the 2017-18 season?
2) Do you have any other reasons that suggest that 4-4-2 will ultimately serve as a platform from which the rest of the season launches?
Go Canes!
1) Two and three above combine to keep me thinking progress is being made. At some point Aho will start scoring goals (though don’t miss the fact that even struggling he is on pace for 41 assists). Once that happens, it will be a boost to the power play and create some momentum for the right winger on his line (probably Lindholm). Similarly, all of Pesce, Slavin, and Fleury have had goal-scoring chances. As the competition/level of goalie play decreases slightly, one of those D-men will get a couple goals. Hanifin is looking like he should hit double digit in goals. Our youngest forward and the young blue line have upside and when they all click it will mean Skinner and Williams don’t have to be on the score sheet every night to win.
2) Call ups will not hurt. Players in the AHL (Wallmark, Zykov, DiGiuseppe, Saarela, now Kuokkanen) are at a much higher level than years past and will continue to develop in Charlotte. Every NHL team will experience some injuries during the season. Few are better positioned to keep rolling with quality replacement players. Even Carrick has displayed the ability to be solid if the need arises. While the talent at the AHL doesn’t immediately improve the team, I do see it as an advantage over the long-haul of the season.
3) The quality of opponents was extremely high in October. Yet the Canes did not dig their usual hole. Another sign that improvement is happening is scoring (what you say!!). With the tough schedule and exemplary opposing goalie play in seven games, the Canes are on a 230 goal pace. And that should improve in November.
Almost all the losses thus far have been frustrating–even the Edmonton win had reasons for concern. Still, October was not a bad month. Thanks for helping us look for positives.
I couldn’t agree more with this assessment. It’s hard to argue against any of the points you’ve made, Matt. Remember …
1/ Aho didn’t score a goal until Game #14 last year and he had a fine season.
2/ Lindholm didn’t turn it on until mid-December.
3/ Faulk-Hanifin didn’t click as a pairing until March.
4/ On offense, Hanifin’s shot is much better – he’s been totally robbed twice and hit a few posts already.
5/ Compared to last year, our #1 goalie has been no worse so far but our #2 (Cam Ward) has been significantly better: that’s a good omen this early in the season.
6/ Unlike last year, when our 3rd D-pair last year was a revolving door mess all season, TvR-Fleury has been much steadier.
I know it’s frustrating to watch the team get over-powered by a heavy checking team like STL and ANA whose primary strategy is to wear its opponent down physically (it’s been working for both against almost everyone, btw), and it’s frustrating to have lost close games that were winnable, this team is already significantly ahead of last year’s team with a much higher ceiling that we will play to at some point. When that happens, we will make up ground on other teams in the standings. The best news is that, unlike year’s past, there isn’t much ground to make up.
I think the main issue is what you mention in sentence #1: we suffer from too much anxiety, paranoia and bad deja vu.
One more thing: I’d gladly take our first 10-game record if 4-4-2 is our worst stretch of 10-game hockey all season.
For all you baseball fans out there, the Indians were basically at .500 in mid-June and wound up with the best record in the American League. Sometimes it takes a while for things to come together.
(Thx for indulging the ranting today)
Matt, you have looked at the situation from the “cup is half full” perspective. I think that is the way to look at things. We (the fans) and the players need to approach things in a confident manner. The fans in their analysis and the players in their on ice performance. Just to do that and be justified in doing so is a big step forward for this franchise from the past several years. Under this approach we can let Ron Francis be the biggest critic (and we will probably never know it if he is) and we can enjoy “GOING AFTER” a playoff spot and not go into the doldrums over each loss or small blips in our performance.
ctcaniac’s and dmilleravid’s points are well stated (as usual I might say). The biggest thing I have seen that needs to be cleared up in team performance is coming out and consistently performing at a high tempo. Failure to do so has made the goalies and defensemen’s jobs very difficult and given the coach reasons (however unfounded or irrational…no Skinner for 10 minutes? Are you kidding?)to make unneeded or ill-advised moves.
When I hear the frustrations expressed by Williams and Faulk I find myself much more in agreement with them then a cup half full perspective, to be honest. And that probably describes me – frustrated and a bit concerned, but I am a Canes fan, I like the team, I believe the team can do a lot better (and a lot better than 4-4-2 would end up with us in the playoffs) and, indeed, hopeful.
To run down your points in order:
1) To believe that we will find a higher gear in November or December because we have in previous falls under a rubric that I call “magical thoughts”. Just because we have in the past doesn’t mean there is a basis for the future. In fact, our turns in the previous two years were initiated with shake-ups to the lineup with call-ups from Charlotte – in early November 2015 Slavin, Pesce, and PDG (someone else?); in December 2016 it was Ryan (and someone else). Do have a catalyst for improvement this season?
2) Improvement with experience goes without saying – we have quality young players and every game should make them better. And in spite of Hanifin’s defensive slips against Anaheim, he could have won the game in the third but his shot hit the post (and it was a great shot).
3) I agree with this – our record is still pretty good all things considered. But with 10 games into the season I would expect things to be clicking by now. There is only one new player in the top-9 forwards – these guys have played together and I would think should be familiar with each other to pick up where they left off.
4) I expect/hope we will be buyers at the trade deadline and I expect that is why he has accumulated the trade-bait he has. I believe he was intending to spend some of that last year, particularly given all the 2017 draft picks we had then. I see it less likely that he will make a move before that. And any trade that involves our picks for some player will come with a salary cost – and I think that still remains an issue.
5) Ahh, the schedule gets “easier”. đŸ™‚ As we tweet-exchanged last week, I think to be the best you have to beat the best. We have to find a way to beat the better teams – we can’t feast on the weaker teams alone (which hopefully we will do, starting Thursday). And we have to learn to beat heavy grinding and close-checking teams regardless. We did so last year, as I recall. We can’t lose style of play as an excuse (although it may be an explanation). We saw signs we can do it (2nd period against Anaheim).
Just as I thought we were a better team than our Octobers of previous years indicated, so do I think we are a better team than 4-4-2 today.
Matt I agree. 2,3, and 5 are the biggest reasons.
I had unrealistic expectations when the season started. The added year of maturity and off-season additions caused me to think we would now over the best of the NHL.
Realistically players peak at about 27 (as good as “McEichel”s are they will get better). Realizing that Skinner is 25, Aho 20, and most of our other best players are in between means that there is lots of room for improvement. How quickly they regain late season form of last year and improve on it this year will determine the playoff issue.
Not only is the glass half full, there is a whole keg of beverage available to top it off.
Hogwash…where do you see evidence of getting better! We just saw a winnable game, at home, given away! Our defense (we all thought was our STRENGTH) is ONLY TWO DEEP! Besides Skins, we have NO RELIABLE OFFENSE! Those facts DON’T CRY OUT “things are looking up, we are a better team dada dada dada”!!!
I call BS
…same old sh@# …different day
puckgod, give the team a chance. If after 20 games or so we are putting along at the same pace, then I’ll be writing the same things as you. If you want to get some positive out of this “meh” start, look at some of the teams we thought we would have to beat out for a playoff spot. Washington, Boston, Montreal, etc. are on an apparent downslide. Couple that with us having a good year should spell P..L..A..Y..O…F..F..S. Nothing wrong with your appraisal of things to keep all of us optimists from getting too cocky. Keep writing.
To Puckgod’s point, I don’t think it’s so much the record to start the season as it is the fact we are seeing the same negative trends from the same players. Whether it’s bad passing, ill-timed defensive breakdowns, non-existent net front presence, missing open nets, not capitalizing, long individual scoring droughts, slow starts, or almost always playing to the other team’s style.
Fact is the top 9 forwards are not new to this group, which is most concerning. Yet 2/3rds of our 4th line is new and clicks, that should tell us something.
The next ten games are ‘statement games’. A solid 14-16 points (out of 20 possible) will signify we are a serious playoff contender and likely catapult us into top 3 of division. Whereas 10-12 points (or less) will mean we are a borderline .500 team, still.
We improved on paper in areas, though have struggled unexpectedly out of the gate and are in better shape than years past. This part needs to align over the next 10, and the offense needs to gel. The team constructed as is can do it.
Good teams put together 4 or 5 game winning streaks and repeat this often. We need to be one of these teams, not the one relying on past long-winning streaks to make us relevant.
I want to follow up up LFD’s comment.
Like him, and as I wrote above, a point of concern for me is the current lack of “click” for players who have played together for a while.
But if you think that players haven’t yet been playing to their mark (I do), you have to assume we are better than a “hockey .500” record in the long run.
LFD describes the next 10 games as statement games. I know Peters likes to use 5 game cycles. But let’s use 10 and what do we see. We are playing two teams who have beat us this season (CBJ and DAL) and one team we have beat (TOR), two .500 teams playing above the expectations (NYI, twice, and COL – who plays a fast game and should open the ice for us), three struggling teams (NYR – isn’t it nice to say that – BUF and CHI) and last year’s SC finalist (NSH) that is playing below expectations.
I agree with LFD if I am correctly interpreting him – we will know a lot more about this team after these 10 games are played. Anything .500 or below is a sorry tale. 15+ points should be the right number.
Given we spend most of December on the road, this is a critical month of play.