Today’s Daily Cup of Joe is part two of a two-part series that suggests that the path higher in the standings and up into the playoffs could very well be hiding within the current roster. Part one took a somewhat painful look backward into a 2017-18 season that on average did not see the team improve from the 2016-17 campaign. Today’s part two considers a long list of possibilities for the team to improve from within as young players continue to grow and veterans who slipped in 2017-18 look to rebound.
Simply because my Thursday ran out of time before I got to this, I will do it as part 2A for goalies and defensemen and part 2B (hopefully for Monday) for the forwards.
Goalie
Scott Darling
Assuming he is not traded or bought out (which is the party line from team management so far), Scott Darling arguably represents the greatest potential for a single player to improve and pull the entire team forward with him. Despite struggling, Bill Peters and the team committed about as long as it could hitching the team to Darling in 2017-18. It was not until December that the Canes started to shift to Ward as the starter. As such, Darling started about half of the team’s games and was largely a liability in doing so. But here’s the thing…Darling is not a young goalie who has yet to prove he could play well at the NHL level. Though the sample size is somewhat limited, Darling did prove that he is capable of playing well at the NHL level. My fear is that the mental and psychological hurdles that Darling must now overcome are huge, but is it possible that a summer off to reset and a restart can see him rebound? Could Rod Brind’Amour help him re-find his game? If Darling is part of the 2018-19 tandem as expected, the room for gains over the 2017-18 season are immense.
Defensemen
Jaccob Slavin
To be clear, Jaccob Slavin was a positive player in 2017-18. But that said, I do think he took a small step backward from the 2016-17 season and because of that has room to improve for 2018-19. Slavin is underrated offensively with 30 points because he did it with so little power play ice time that is often the catalyst for blue line scoring. But his defensive play actually took a small step backward in 2017-18 with an extended tough stretch in the middle of the season and a puzzling propensity to be on the ice for nearly every power play goal against. Slavin is already a solid top 4 defenseman, but I still think he has one higher gear where he makes modest gains in terms of every game consistency defensively and takes one more step up offensively.
Justin Faulk
Justin Faulk’s game declined in 2017-18. He did not really rebound from what I thought was a tough 2016-17 season defensively, and his goal scoring prowess that made it almost worth it also dissipated in 2017-18. The result for Faulk was a tough campaign that saw him a step slow defensively to the tune of an earned minus 27 at even strength that was second worst only to Jeff Skinner. In addition, his goal total was cut in half from 17 in 2016-17 to eight in 2017-18. The burning question is if he is just on the wrong side and moving further in the wrong direction in terms of having enough quickness and acceleration to be the top-tier defenseman that he was a few years back. If Faulk can return a step or two quicker and regain his offensive prowess, he represents a potentially sizable gain on the blue line for the 2018-19 season.
Noah Hanifin
Suddenly entering his fourth season in the NHL, Noah Hanifin is still more potential than performance. He did make strides offensively notching 10 goals and leading the Hurricanes defense in scoring with 32 points. But he also (rightfully) finished the season as a third pairing defenseman. He still has occasional lapses that are costly and has yet to figure out how to consistently defend a 2-on-1 or other odd man rush skating backwards in his own end and just generally is still a work in progress defensively. With his offense trending upward, if he suddenly puts it all together defensively, he could represent a significant upgrade over the 2017-18 season if he can leverage his elite skating ability to become a solid top 4 defenseman with offensive ability to boot.
Brett Pesce
With a quietly solid 2017-18 campaign, I think Brett Pesce has a good claim to be the most steady Hurricanes defenseman. (Trevor van Riemsdyk does as well though it is important to note his somewhat easier role as a third pairing defenseman.) I do not think one could ask for too much more defensively from Pesce. Like regular partner Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce’s scoring is held back a bit by his lack of power play ice time. Nonetheless, Pesce could represent scoring upside if he can find a higher gear and better his three goals and 19 points in 65 games in 2017-18. I actually think Pesce is second only to Faulk and maybe possibly a growing Hanifin in terms of identifying when and where to step into the offensive play trailing the rush, but he does not yet possess the ability to finish many of these chances. A modest increase in finishing ability trailing the rush could boost Pesce’s play and scoring and with it the whole team in 2018-19.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Which player on the defensive side of the puck represents the greatest potential upside going from 2017-18 to 2018-19?
2) Which of these players do you see fulfilling their upside and boosting the team in 2018-19?
Go Canes!
Scoring from the D was a big part of the problem. The Canes’ top 3 D-men totaled 93 points. For all the teams that made it to the second round of the playoffs the fewest points for top 3 was 106 and several were between 115 and 125.
1) I think everyone you listed has potential to get to 8-10 goals and 35-40 points. Three of the four need to do just that to make Carolina a playoff team. Both Pesce and Slavin were scoring at that 40 point level in the second half of 17-18. Because they will be the two D-men getting the most ice time, I think they have the most potential.
2) If I had to pick one it would be Pesce. Before he was taken out of the lineup he was much more aggressive offensively. He has a real knack for keeping the puck in the offensive zone. In a system that features more attacking by the blueline, I can see him reaching 40 points.
Darling is certainly a conundrum wrapped in an enigma. He looked really strong in Chicago as a backup. I was living just north of Chicago when the trade happened. The media and people I interacted with hated to see him go.
Then he comes to Carolina. Was he out of shape? I don’t know. He seemed to lose all confidence after that weird shot from the Rangers that floated in from the blue line. Perhaps the coaching staff, players and fans lost confidence as well.
Can he rebound? I really hope so. His story of personal struggles and successes is quite compelling. I think a few things would help. He is not a puck handling goalie. He should not be asked to be that. His teammates should stick up for him. Confidence is a strange thing and Darling needs to know everyone has his back.
Darling is the key to the playoffs next year in my opinion. Either his play or how the organization handles him will determine April hockey plans.
The one defenseman that can have the biggest improvement is Pesce. I am 99 percent sure he will be back. Don’t misunderstand me in that he is already a really good player.
Was it just me or did his shot seem to improve over the course of last season? I think he can be on the second PP unit if Hanifin or Faulk get traded. He could be a 40 Point guy with that chance.
The area I think he can improve the most is grit. He is not soft by any stretch. Yet many times I wanted him to “escort” a forward away from the crease and support his goalie. I think he can be a real leader on this team. Perhaps an A at some point. I would like to see him take that next step in the upcoming season.
Did Darling come to Carolina out of shape? Yes. Waddell is on the record saying that.
Darling is on record as saying that. He said all that in his exit interview. Waddell was just repeating what Darling, Rod and everyone else knew. He stumbled a bit at that first try at the big jump from backup to starter. If he digs in this summer though, there’s no reason he can’t return to Chicago form next year.
You are correct gentlemen. That was what was said. However his play in preseason and early season was not as bad as in November and December. I don’t think his conditioning accounts for the massive number of five hole goals he gave up throughout the season.
Either way, as mentioned in another post, can only go up from rock bottom, right?
I think it was one of those “one thing led to another” things. Out of shape, off his game, let in some really horrendous goals, it got in his head and stayed there. Can he get it out? Hope so.
Question becomes how much rope do you give the guy this year? Is he in shape for camp? If not, what do you do? If he is still playing bad how many games do you allow him to play before you say, no more? Canes can’t afford to blow a half-dozen games trying to figure out if Darling can play. Tough situation.
1. The obvious answer to me is Scott Darling, simply because he reached rock bottom (is there a level below rock bottom?) last season. So if he somehow does put the pieces back together, and regains the form of even a serviceable number one NHL goalie, then his upside gain would feel astronomical. The question is, what do the multiple brains, of the Edwards Mill brain trust, do with him this summer? I think you’re right, Matt, they’re gonna definitely keep him around. The best way I see that playing out, is that he shows up to training camp in shape (and I mean in Rod the Bod type uber-shape), then plays significantly better in a few exhibition starts. So we keep him on the team to start the season (with a top free agent pickup as a backup, waiting in the wings) and see what happens. In this dream scenario, with what should be a better team all around in front of him, he plays the way he should play. Now, will this happen? Frankly it’s all up to Scott Darling, and what he does this summer. This is probably the most important offseason of his life, and he damn well better approach it that way.
2. That’s a good question. My gut feeling is that Slavin might surprise all of us with his offensive production – I think he showed a taste of his potential a few times last season. I could see him becoming a fixture on the PP unit (definitely if Faulk gets moved), where he’ll use his mobility, to learn how to work the point to get shots through. And the few times he joined the rush, he showed a knack for finishing (similar to his shootout expertise). Now on the defensive side? Players have tough stretches every season, for whatever reason, and I think Slavin just went through that last season, although for a longer time period than usual. I have no doubt he’s gonna spring back defensively this year. He’s just too good.
Probably not the biggest off-season of his life, that was probably the one where he was coming back from alcoholism, but definitely of his NHL career. I will be fascinated and very much hope as a personal fan of his that he is able to rise to the challenge.
Obviously, Scott Darling has the most upside and just getting back to the level of his play in Chicago is all we’d need to be a much better team.
As for skaters, if the starting point is the play from the last portion of the season, then Hanifin still has the most upside. We’ve seen flashes of his ability on offense and I can easily see him taking a bigger role on the PP next season especially if Faulk is traded. When he figures out how to play defense at the same level as his offense, our team becomes much better.
That isn’t to say that there isn’t room for Slavin to be much better. He seems to be the most athletic player on the team and some of his 200-ft rushes with the puck were things of beauty that make you wonder why he isn’t more dangerous offensively more often. Still, we need him to be part of a shut-down tandem that neutralizes the McDavids and Crosbys and Matthews of the league at least as often as they get outplayed. The talent is there.
All that being said and I keep coming back to it, maybe too often, there is still this element of being nasty and chippy and using their body and elbows that Slavin and (to a lesser extent) Pesce seem unwilling or unable to do. Doughty, Letang, Keith (in his prime), PK, Seth Jones all do: that’s really more of what I think is needed from them next season. Interestingly, the prototypical defensive star is Karlsson and Burns and The Ghost – offensive-leaning players – but three of the four teams in the Conference Finals don’t have a player like that (John Carlson may be a one-year-wonder so he doesn’t count yet).
The one player on our team who does seem willing to engage physically is Haydn Fleury. He has the body to do it but he’s still a little young and inexperienced and not sure how/when to pick the right moments. When he figures that part of the game out, he might be our best (or only) internal candidate to fill that role, which would go a long way toward solidifying his place in the lineup.
Call me old-school, but we just need a player willing to flatten someone skating through the crease like Mark Giordano did to Aho earlier this season. Obviously, not in a dirty way (and maybe that hit was dirty) or with an intent to injure, but forwards need to skate a little more nervously in between the dots.
I think you are on to something with Fleury. He is a big boy. I think a little snarl added to his game would be a big deal. I noticed he had quite a few PIM for Charlotte in the playoffs. Hope it was the nasty variety and not the lazy variety. Having a big, nasty defenseman that no one wants to deal with down low is a very nice thing to have. Hopefully, it’s a smart defenseman that knows when to show that sandpaper as to not take too many dumb penalties like Gudas in Philly. Hope Fleury comes to camp with more confidence. He played like he was afraid to make a mistake, which often leads to…more mistakes. Hope a new coach can help with that as well.
I went to a couple of the Checkers games last week, and I was really impressed with Fleury’s puck movement. The Checkers as whole were struggling to make any kind of play without turning the puck over, but Fleury was carrying the puck with ease in the offensive zoned made a few end to end rushes. Unfortunately he didn’t have any more luck against Alex Lyon then his teammates, but that was the story of the series.
I hope we see more of this offensive side from Fleury at the Canes level next season.
I would be happy to see a strong, confident defensive Fleury. Offense will come, but I don’t think anyone sees Fleury as the second coming of Burns or Doughty.
1. Faulk
2. Faulk
The answers to both questions are the same for me. If he does not get traded, I can see Faulk with both the greatest potential upside from last year and fulfilling that upside. If he can return to a steady top 4D by tightening defensively while scoring the way he is capable…then our defense gets a whole lot stronger. I think pairing him with a veteran might provide that boost in his game.
1. On a player level Darling has the most POTENTIAL for upside. Faulk also has this potential and if he does improve it will have to be both offensively and defensively. Teamwise, there is no upside for the Canes without solving the goaltending position. The goaltending position is the critical need for next season. Darling, as things set right now, is going to be one of the goaltenders for the Canes. Bringing in another competent goalie from the free agents (current) like Hutton or Saros (the only two FREE agent goalies (soon to be unrestricted free agents) currently out there IMO will hopefully provide the catalyst for improvement in Darling. Take the pressure off him to be the number 1 by having two just starting goalies.
Considering the importance of improving the goaltending, it would behoove the Canes to solve this problem first. Do not trade off the Canes assets that are in demand (Skinner, Faulk, etc.) without first solving the goaltending issue. You may need those assets to get yourself a qualified goaltender.
2. I see Hanifin and Faulk having better seasons under Brindamoor with both improving their offensive performance and Faulk improving his defensive performance. Both Pesce and Slaving IMO will improve on the offensoive side of the puck.
1. If Darling can revert back to his Chicago performance level there will be much rejoicing in Raleigh. He has the greatest potential because he has the greatest falloff of his previous level of play.
2. I don’t want to predict who – I do think the pressure is on every one of the named players to improve performance. I just expect Faulk to do it wearing a different uniform.
The Canes just signed Finish winger Saku Maenalanen to a one-year two-way contract.
I have to do research but this looks like a big winger who is friends, or at least a former team mate of Aho. I am wondering if he team is betting on an all-Finish trio as their top line.
This guy has very modest scoring but is a big winger hich might fit in. Wonder whether he improves upside over Zykov in that role.
The contract spots are filling up and there are a lot of forwards with top 6 to top 9 abilities scheduled for training camp, This team has to figure out who fits where in that regard.
Hckeybuzz is claiming that the Flyer and Leafs have been in discussions re trading for Faulk, that website is fun but a heck of a lot less than reliable.
If Philli, I’d want the Phantoms goaltender plus a decent defenseman and their first round pick in return.
I know one playoff series does not make a goaltender but man, alex was phenominal.
For leafs, capinen or Nilander were mentioned.
Nilander is good, quite good, but I don’t instantly see where he fits in the lineup.
I don’t understand how a player making 4 million dollars and relied upon as a #1 goalie an come into training camp out of shape without suffering any consequences.
It’s a bit lke me deciding to come to the office at 11 in the morning, not at 9, and there’s nothing my employer can do about that.
The team should have options to send players who are not in shape to charlotte on a conditioning stint, paying AHL salary while players are getting ready.
Re: Darling and out of shape.
I think this is the kind of thing Brind’Amour was talking about in the press conference. Earning your ice time. He said it hasn’t happened here in a long time. Management was deciding who was supposed to be on the ice. If you look back at comments and decisons over the years that makes sense. Even BP’s meltdown shows who was deciding which players would play. The more I hear, the more I think Francis deserved to get fired.
My comment goes deeper than that.
The only way in which a team can punish an underperforming player is to give him time off on full salary. I wish my under performance was promised by making me work 4 hours a day instead of 8. Yes, most players want to play the game, but players in a funk or players who are not engaged with the team and don’t really want to be there are probably all too happy to have the team sit them or trade them away, they still get millions of dollars.
It’s insane how major league players are over privileged.
I think if a player shows up to camp out of shape that the team should be able to promote them to their minor league affiliate team for a tenth of their salary, giving other teams a chance to claim the player on waivers on the way down.
O, enough ranting about that 😉 I just had to get it out of my system.
I can’t believe this team still has to pay Semin. That’s just unbelievable.
I still hope Scotty can turn it around. I think he is a good guy who made bad decisions but he’s had the ability to beat the odds.
I hope the party line from management regarding Darling returning is simply window dressing for the purpose of increasing his value and trading him. I worry about the precedent and message to the team that a player can sign a $4M contract for 4 years, come to camp out of shape, be the worst starting goalie in the league, but it’s okay and you get another chance next year? No way. RBA won a cup with Wardo; I highly doubt Darling returns. No one wants to be having this same conversation again next year at this time.
I think Slavin has the most upside provided his PK responsibilities are reduced and his PP role increases. Otherwise, it could be Hanifin if he gets a new shutdown partner in a top 4 role.
One player that has not been mentioned much, outside of the snarl discussion, is Fleury.
He played an acceptable first year as a third pairing defenseman, but did not manage a single goal.
I think a total of zero goals has to be considered inadequate for anyone other than the goalie.
If he can add some grit to his game and chip in 4 or 5 goals to boot that is a small but tangible contribution. The question is, will he come back bigger stronger and better or will he hit the dreaded sophomore slump.
I was surprised Fleury didn’t score because he is an offensive-minded D-man. He certainly played well in the offensive zone and did practically everything he was supposed to do. I think he was reluctant to shoot, for the most part. They teach rookie D-man to be careful with their shots to prevent deflections and the puck going the other way quickly with them being out of position. He may have taken that guidance too much to heart.