Much of the bye week layoff has been spent bandying around the playoff situation from a few different angles. Tuesday’s Daily Cup of Joe took a shot at handicapping the odds. The Coffee Shop from Thursday had reader discussion and polls about what it would take to make the playoffs.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe aims to identify what it will take for the Hurricanes to make the playoffs and also to do so with a very short list of key drivers not a laundry list of a dozen things that could slightly tilt things favorably. I really think it comes down to three things that all come at it from different angles.
1) Goaltending
If the Hurricanes do not get reasonably consistent league average or better goaltending for the remainder of the season, the chances of making the playoffs become incredibly slim.
The Hurricanes are two points out of a playoff spot right now (adjusted for games played) and need to catch at least three teams to earn a postseason berth. In addition, with multiple teams in a dead heat right now, it will take a strong second half with a higher winning percentage than the first half to vault over the competition. And it is just too hard to string together any kind of run if too regularly the team is trying overcome a minus at the goalie position.
I really do not think any combination of things will be enough if the goalies do not find a higher gear.
2) A rhythm and a run in early February
If the Hurricanes are to make the playoffs, I think it will require a surge from January 30 through February 23 when the Hurricanes play 11 of 12 games at home. If the team does one step forward/one step backward during that stretch, it will emerge likely still below the playoff cut line and with only 20 games remaining. That would put the team in a position similar to the 2016-17 season. The team played its best hockey of the season in March, surged as much as possible and still missed the playoffs. If the Hurricanes do not win big in early February, a similar ending is highly likely in 2017-18.
3) A different vibe and/or attitude
From the fuzzy category, I continue to think that this team is still searching for a catalyst that helps it find and maintain a higher level of play. We have seen flashes of it in great wins like the recent road in Pittsburgh, but thus far mojo and momentum have proven to be temporary and fleeting. There are times when I feel like I can see Justin Williams trying to will the team to a higher plane, but the young team just is not there yet. I think it will be very hard to find enough momentum to push far enough upward with a hard to measure but sometimes easy to see change in mentality.
I really think everything else is secondary. Give me better goaltending, capitalizing on the streak of 11 out of 12 at home and a team that suddenly gets it and has the mentality of a playoff team, and I think it happens. If the Hurricanes miss on any of these three items, I fear we could see the season carry into late March but ultimately tha the team will again fall short.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Do you agree with this list?
2) Do you think the team can survive a miss on any of these and still make the playoffs?
3) Is there anything that you would add to the list?
Go Canes!
3. I am adding to the list that it has become real hard for me to swallow that Bill Peters, by NHL official page, let Aho to dry out there saying: “I’m surprised [Aho] continued on with the puck, to be honest with you,” Hurricanes coach Bill Peters said after the game. “He was in a real good spot to shoot it. Obviously, there was some head contact. I don’t know if there was much intent. I thought his arm was tucked in low. It was unfortunate.”
The hit, yes, controversial, but by any means why would Justin Faulk or Jordan Staal need to protect their roster member if the coach had this opinion? Why would NHLPA ever take it seriously if even the coach said no reason?
I worked in a very good paid position in a world-wide record company until I got sick of their “peace and love” athmosphere. A woman, posting car crash pictures coming out of this company’s arranged music festival got accused of spreading “negative vibes”. This day, as we hear the news of Eric Lindros number freezed, I need to see what are the means I can continue with my icehockey hobby without losing my hope to the mankind. Lotta going on now, so it might be wise for me to step off.
The Aho hit was unfortunate, but not dirty. When you skate into the middle of the ice (especially in close) there will be guys ready to clock you if you are not quick enough to get your shot off. That’s why they teach you to keep your “head up”. I agree with Peters assessment.
Goaltending, opportunistic scoring and more grit will be the backbone to a streak (we need one out of this break and the all-star one as well).
Ah, so like everyone else it is just allright to not defend your roster player. If and when the fans are like this why to expect more. Go and suck it deep. Adios!
You are entitled to disagree with any of us on anything we write. Your filthy way of doing it is not acceptable. We have never had that on this site. There are others where it may be acceptable, but not here IMO.
It is too much peace and love community to me so we depart our ways. Thanks for having me thus far. I mean it.
Goal tending is critical. It has to improve otherwise we will remain below the “line”. I believe Darling is our guy, it’s a matter of whether he will be able to consistently take his play to a higher level.
Aho’s absence will have a negative impact. Plus, we have no idea how long he will be away. Will someone step up?
The trade deadline is approaching. Does management sit tight, sell or buy?
1. Nothing wrong with your reasoning.
2. If the Canes don’t come out of the bye week and go on an IMMEDIATE winning streak of 5 to 6 games, IMO the season is over. They stumbled into the bye when they had games in hand. During the bye week their major competitors took advantage by winning most of their games putting the Canes in a chase mode trying to now catch up.
The only way I see this 5-6 game streak occurring is if the defense and goaltending step up big time. Mediocre play by either, since BP has constructed this team to score three goals per game to insure wins, will result in golf for the Canes players as soon as late April. I want to be optimistic and I hope I am wrong. Realistically IMO its too late for any player moves (trades) to make any difference unless it is made immediately and brings us a Pacioretty (a difference maker)caliber player. IMO this team hasn’t demonstrated the confidence or push necessary to make the playoffs. There is no desperation in their play. It’s one or two great games followed by one of two stinkers. Since BP has constructed this team with no margin for error (in his words they must play all out every night to have a CHANCE to win and 3 goals scored ought to be a win), what evidence have we seen in the first half that this team can play all-out game in and game out and what evidence have we seen that in today’s NHL 3 goals scored insures anything.
They net result of this season IMO is: 1. no playoffs. 2. If that is the case, IMO BP must go. 3. RF will have to make a major player acquisition in the off season. The fans are not ready to accept another promise of a better next year based upon some rookie(s) coming in from Charlotte to make us a playoff team.
I told my brother last night that this team is forever doomed to pick 10-12th in the draft. Never making the playoffs. Francis refuses to make the necessary changes. It’s time for Faulk or Skinner to have a change of scenery. One of them needs it. They’ve failed since they’ve been here. It’s really been their team, there’s and Jordan’s at least. And Jordo isn’t and shouldn’t be going anywhere. I think both Skins and Faulk have reputations around the league that will net higher returns than what they have given us – Skinner especially. He’s such a negative impact to the team when he’s not scoring 7 goals in a 10 game stretch.
Their’s**
The Metro is also just too good this year. Every day I look at the standings and Pittsburgh and Philly and both NY teams keep right on winning. Trade Skinner for a big time offensive prospect and swap of first rounders with a bad team.
You got it exactly.
To have a chance the canes must get 10 points in the next 6 games.
To help with that, I think they should acquire a potential difference maker today or tomorrow.
If they don’t, and if they get 8 points or less in the next 5 games, it’s time to retool, re roster and think about next season.
Sell everything at the tradeline that that isn’t bolted down (+ darling)
I’d like to:
* Give Checkers players a chance to come up and try out with the big club.
* Plan for a major roster shakeup over the summer, bring in some veterans and grit.
* Exhibit a lot of defensive lapses and bad goaltending in hope for a higher draft pick (ok, just kidding, I can’t recommend the team bombs, it’s not PC).
What will likely happen:
* WE’ll add one or two veteran players over the summer, enough to build 2 reliable 4th lines that, between them, can score upwards of 20 goals, + if the players come from Chicago.
* WE’ll hold on to all the roster players and RF will explain to the media how next year will be totally different, because they will show up to play every night then.
* The players shot may improve after rigorous golf practice starting in early April.
* Stormy will be our new goaltender.
* WE’ll resign Cam Ward as a backup for 4.5 mill per year, on a 26 year contract.
* We’l bring back Eric Staal and sign him to a big contract.
* We’ll sign Henry Staal to a 3-year contract worth 6.2 million for veteran help. He scored a great goal in one of the alumni games.
* We’ll sign Thomas Kaberle to a 4 year 12 mill deal to fix the defense, he was a great defenseman in his tenior with the canes.
(hey, we got to have some fun sometimes)
And like years past, RF will elaborate on the number of 1-goal losses that had they translated a few more of these into wins they would be in the playoffs. 🙂
1)Only way Canes are going to make playoffs is to get significantly better goaltending- above league average. Unless Aho comes back quick, then maybe league average will be enough.
2)Agree Canes need to take advantage of February schedule. Like to see at least 16 – 18 points out of next 12 games.
3)Need Skinner and Teravainen to go on significant goal scoring streaks to make up for the loss of Aho.
4)Would like to see Zykov and either Saarela or Foegle called up. 4th line has no offensive ability and a combination of these guys or maybe dropping McGinn or Ryan down to the 4th line could be a spark.
Agree with RedRyder… we need a streak in January before riding February hopes. No matter the month, we have 5 key games left January, with 4 prior to the All-Star break. That’s 10 points on the table prior to Feb 1st. During this immediate stretch, anything less than 7-8 points (in this division) will put us in a hole.
Well, goal tending is number one issue. Cam has not been bad. Darling has been horrible. If the goaltending does not have a dramatic change, the season is over.
We do have the home games in what is left of January and then February. If the team does not use this schedule to win games then we are done. It should be obvious within a couple of weeks which way we are going.
With Aho out and loosing even more scoring, it looks grim.
Things can change but we just have not been seeing it. The trade deadline does not matter if we are not close to a playoff position.
The hope I have is Dundon is impatient. He may tell RF to go make a difference. RF is happy building slow and not making big moves. The problem is, there is no proof that works. Our competitors are not standing still. The checkers are not blowing away the other teams in the standings even though we are supposed to be in the top 5 for prospects. As we get better, our competitors get better. Dundon may say do something!!!!, before its too late. Another loosing season will not go over well, and fans are tired of “be patient”.
What I will be watching for is if Dundon makes RF do something. He is a results guy.
I agree, but I don’t really believe they WILL spend the money…
BUT, IF YOU CAN’T OUTPLAY THEM, WHY NOT OUT-NASTY THEM?
Go get the Hanson brothers! eh?
If you MUST SUCK, at least make it entertaining…
Ryan and Pesce were both on ice today in regular jerseys. Aho was the only player absent. Lindholm was playing on Staal’s left.
What this means in the context of this article:
1) No callups from Charlotte.
2) No true offensive-minded line – just high quality possession lines.
This sounds a lot like Peters’ stated bias about only wanting players who have shown they “can play” in the NHL and players who “may be able to play” in the NHL.
It has to become Skinner-time and Turbo-time to generate offense. And maybe McGinn can start missing the posts and begin hitting the net. He has been so close to turning into reliable depth scoring.
The next few games are critical, I think. They are going to show what the team is like minus-Aho. If they play well and find a groove it bodes very well for Aho’s eventual return. Still I wish we were entertaining the thought of bringing up scorers from Charlotte.
Katril, please don’t leave!
Your passion for the game is NEEDED!
If only a few players could develop the interest and drive you display…?!!
I get totally PISSED with the fans (so-called) who think that RF, AND BP can do no wrong!
We can see complacency, and ought to CALL IT OUT…
THE MGMT SUCKS…when it won’t fix obvious problems.
I WILL NOT APOLOGIZE FOR TELLING THE TRUTH, NOR WILL I SHUT UP AND GO AWAY! Don’t let anyone scare you from telling it like it is!