Now only one day from 2020 playoff hockey, today’s Daily Cup of Joe offers thoughts on what I think is most likely to decide the Canes/Rangers series.
1) Whoever wins the forecheck
Both teams have young legs and use them to pressure the puck coming out of the defensive zone. Both teams are at their best when they can tilt the ice, force turnovers and attack quickly in transition. In addition, I think both teams can be had defensively if forced to sort things out and defend under duress. As such, I think whichever team wins the forecheck will gain a significant advantage in terms of high quality scoring chances and could ride that to a series win.
2) Goaltending
In the playoffs goaltending always has the chance to be the X factor, and goalie play could be even more significant in this series. In the regular season series, the Rangers had a decided edge in net. Neither Reimer nor Mrazek were particularly good against the Rangers. I chalk that up more to coincidence and a small sample size than anything else, but if happens in the playoffs, it could be catastrophic. The Rangers are strong in net, and that was a significant factor in the Rangers season series sweep.
3) The stars
A major story line of the regular season was the Hurricanes inability to control Artemi Panarin or Mike Zibanejad. The pair of Rangers were consistently the best players on the ice during the regular season series. Especially in the playoffs, the team whose best players play better usually wins a series. For that not to be a factor, the Hurricanes must do a better job of containing Panarin and Zibanejad and ideally also have Aho’s line rise up and match the Rangers duo.
4) Rust versus rest
The one huge wild card for these playoffs is the unprecedented situation of going from a four-month layoff straight int the playoffs. Out of eight series, I will go out on a limb and predict that at least thre of them are very one-sided simply because one team seems to get up to speed quickly and the other looks like it is in preseason form. That rest versus rust factor has the potential to decide the Canes versus Rangers series.
I really think if either team gains a consistent advantage on the forecheck that it decides the series. If not, the other factors also come into play.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Which of my four factors do you see as most likely to decide the Hurricanes playoff series?
2) Do you see any another factors with the potential to drive the series outcome?
Go Canes!
I think the last point is the most important point. Are the teams ready? I worry about a few of the Canes. If they come out flat in game one and lose, I think you’ll know their stay in the bubble will be short. No time for getting up to speed. Hopefully they’ll come out flying, but after Wednesday I have some doubts.
1) It will be a combination of 2 & 3. The games should be close, which will mean one or two “big” plays will decide many/all of the games. Almost by definition the big plays will come from the stars or goalies.
2) There could also be key plays that are negative—turnovers in front of the net, penalties, etc. I am concerned that the players Carolina added have a tendency to cost the team. Skjei seems to have one bad play every game. Trocheck’s penalty minutes have increased each of the past two seasons.
Interesting about Trocheck. Guys get older and the league gets faster. Kind of explains Niederriter and to a lesser extent Jordan Staal.
Did we see much of a forecheck against WSH in the exhibition. I am a broken record here but the 20119-20 Canes were marked by the lack of anything resembling a forecheck – I doubt one will magically appear here.
Point – NYR
Goaltending – What happened in the past will stay in the past – Lundqvuist’s prior success against CAR doesn’t have play here. And isn’t one of NYR’s wunderkinds out? Mrazek was a bit loose on Wednesday but that will only help him get his timing and vision back. Reimer is solid.
Point – CAR
Star Talent – NYR has higher star power at the power, but we have more starpower deeper (beyond AHo and Svech, we have one of the best playmaking Fs in Turbo, and a defensive stalwart in Staal, and an unknown in Geekie; plus our D is better man for man). If we can slow down their top stars we have the edge.
Draw with an edge to CAR
4. Rest/Rust – on a general basis it applies equally to both. If we actually had Hamilton Rest would have been in Canes corner. But we don’t.
Draw
All of the above. Unless a goalie takes over, it is usually a large collection of little things
Another possibility is an unlikely hero.