Yesterday’s Daily Cup of Joe was entitled, “A realistic assessment of the current 2018-19 Carolina Hurricanes roster.”
The article was a bit sobering in that it used the word “rebuilding” and highlighted the many question marks in the current lineup including a slew of rookies at forward and a ton of uncertainty in net.
But while I did say that the current roster strikes of rebuilding, I followed that by saying:
But because of the high ceilings of the rookies and the potential upside from rough 2017-18 seasons for the two goalies, I think the potential for an upside surprise is significantly higher than average.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe explores what it takes for such an upside surprise to occur for the 2018-19 season.
In short, I think it takes only three things for the 2018-19 Carolina Hurricanes to surprise to the upside:
1) Serviceable goaltending
There are actually two angles on this possibility. The most obvious is the possibility that the goalies simply play better. Both Scott Darling and Petr Mrazek have NHL success on their resumes. The 2018-19 Hurricanes need just one of the two to refind that higher level of play and boost the team to at least middle of the pack for netminding. The less obvious path to improved goaltending could be through an improved defense. During the offseason, the team solidified the blue line by adding two veterans and is incredibly deep as currently configured with Justin Faulk still in tow but now likely slotted in the third pairing.
2) The young forwards need to hit the ground running
A significant factor in the team’s recent failures to push over the rebuilding hump and back into the playoffs was the team’s inability to find legitimate top half of the roster players in the first round of the draft. Elias Lindholm was rushed to the NHL, languished early on and only recently became a solid NHL forward but even after progress, he was still only a middle 6 type forward. Through three years, Noah Hanifin’s skating ability and potential had yet to yield more than a third pairing defenseman, and the same is true for Haydn Fleury. The Hurricanes faithful are rightfully high on Andrei Svechnikov, Martin Necas and other forward prospects, but anyone who thinks they are a sure thing especially for the 2018-19 season must have managed to block out memories of Hanfin, Lindholm and Fleury. If Necas and Svechnikov have 2018-19 campaigns that can best be described as learning on the job, then the team is suddenly very light on scoring. If instead Necas and/or Svechnikov can dial it up at the NHL level, then the Hurricanes forward lines and scoring add needed depth.
3) Coaching and attitude
Of the many possible things to pin the 2017-18 season on, I think the team’s lack of a winning attitude rates high on that list. Even when playing well, the team seemed to lack the killer instinct necessary to go on a run. Maybe more concerning, was the way the team imploded at times in the second half of the season. There is no clear answer what needs to change to chart a new course in 2018-19, but some kind of change of attitude is imperative. As a leader, Rod Brind’Amour could be the perfect coach to effect such a change, or alternatively he could be a rookie coach who has to learn some hard lessons in 2018-19. Which side of the fence Brind’Amour lands on should factor significantly into the results for the 2018-19 season.
If the Carolina Hurricanes go 0 for 3 on this short checklist, I fear that nothing else will be enough to overcome the negatives and push the team up the standings. On the other hand, if the team goes 3 for 3 on these items, it will mean that the team is at least decent across all three positions. If that occurs, the playoffs should be within reach.
What say you Canes fans?
1) What are your thoughts on these three items as keys to surprising to the upside in 2018-19?
2) Are there any other items that you would add to this short list in terms of vaulting the team up above the playoff cut line?
3) How do you predict the team will fare on each of these items?
Go Canes!
1) Those are the three top upside drivers.
2) the next most important thing is downside avoidance. We need our top forwards to stay healthy, since we are already likely to have a few rookies starting.
3) I expect at least one goalie to have a good year, in part due to improved defense.
The “advanced stats” on high danger shots look to be based mostly on where the shot is taken from, whereas in reality danger is created by location, traffic in front, and making the goalie move. BWe should improve on both ends of the ice in this regard.
It is hard to say how ae’ll fair this year. We are one of only 2-3 teams that has an equal chance to do the following:
Be bottom 3
Have another almost but not really type season
Make the playoffs
A lot of question marks. I think no matter the standings outcomes we’ll be more enjoyable to watch. Early 2000s type of flying down the ice and hitting dudes in the mouth. The type of hockey that sucked me into the game and made me a fan of the team.
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Excellent point. I think in an interview with Darling earlier this summer he said that he came here alone last year, which relates to your point about a support system. I believe his fiance/girlfriend is with him here now. He has a dog. Sounds like he is in a much better place at home in Raleigh.
As far as being out of shape…he was, which could have been a reflection of his mental state at the time.
All said, he still has many physical things to correct from last season as well. We will see how he does. The real test will come when he has a bad game, which he will…they all do. Will he bounce back mentally? That will be his big tell. Definitely rooting for him..personally and as a Canes fan.
Let’s be careful speculating about a possible relapse of Scott Darling’s previous addiction.
As with anyone, he has a history that is part of who he is and what he does, so certainly anything is possible. But I have seen or heard exactly nothing to indicate that his struggles on the ice for 2017-18 had anything to do with his past history. I think it is therefore unfair to jump to this conclusion.
I would argue that it’s not really jumping to any conclusions. That kind of stuff never goes away, maybe not the addictions itself, but the mental conditions that can lead to such addictions generally remain with you throughout your life, you just become increasingly better at handling them.
That said, from my own personal experience, when you don’t take care of yourself in that situation, everything can snowball really fast. While there were no indications of addiction, there was every indication that Scott Darling did not take care of himself last year and it snowballed hard. Everything that he has done this summer both on the ice, in the gym and with his family has seemed to be working to ensure that this situation does not happen again.
This is a very human situation that happened to a very talented hockey player, and its not something that cannot be overcome, it just takes a heck of a lot of work and a commitment to taking care of yourself. Every indication says that Scott Darling is working to do that.
I just feel it’s important to come at this from an empathetic human perspective (especially if you’re a fellow human that has struggled with addiction before) as so many people have constantly hurdled this lifelong obstacle, as we all conquer life obstacles, to rise back up after we fall. Scott is checking off all the boxes from a human perspective, if he remains mentally and physically strong for the rest of the year, there is absolutely ZERO reason to believe he cannot significantly improve. He’s going to jump this hurdle like he has all the others.
1) No doubt you have nailed three components that the Canes are trying to improve. I have my doubts about the goalies, but am hopeful. The Canes are asking a lot of some rookies this year, but again…I am hopeful. Finally, I have no doubt that the atmosphere in the locker room will improve dramatically. To say Bill Peters was unpopular in the room would be an understatement. Even if Rod Brind’Amour was a regular guy as it comes to leadership it would be an improvement, but I believe he will be much more than that.
2) One of the things the Canes need from some forward (or defenseman) is a breakout season. Someone to play way better than expected. I think this can happen. It kind of relates to your point #2 Matt, but from a different angle. We all say players/people should give their best effort even if they have a poor coach/manager. We all know that it is only the few that actually perform in that manner. Which players will step up big time in the absence of Bill Peters? It will be someone. Maybe Viktor Rask? Maybe Hayden Fleury? Two guys that seemed to be in Peters’ doghouse on a regular basis. I look forward to this surprise.
Finally, starting the year strong is important. The Canes say this every year and it is true. There are still a lot of players on this team that are accustomed to losing. A bad October and it’s “here we go again.” The Canes need to be over .500 in October desperately.
1). I think the goaltending will be serviceable, because I believe one or both will rebound. The forwards will be productive, I still worry about the PK. Staal can’t do it alone. Martinook has experience, but I am not sure he should make the roster because of that.
The attitude is a real concern. I understand that hockey is not philosophy or physics, so I wasn’t expecting Team Compatibilism and Team String Theory. But folks are seriously mocking the names. To me this isn’t much better than co-captains.
2) Scoring from the D. I have mentioned it several times, all of the final 8 teams last season had a minimum of 105 points from their top 3 scoring defensemen. The Canes were at 93. Hamilton will help. However, as asheville mentioned above, dangerous shots are created by movement. The most effective offense is created by moving the puck from the blueline to behind the net then between the circles. The reason is that having the puck go from high in the offensive zone to behind the goalie then back in front causes both the opposing goalie and opposing d-men to make multiple reads causing more room for error. The truth is that Carolina was significantly above average for getting shots in the “dirty” areas around the net. http://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/shotLocOff/1718/CAR/wrap
But the team was average to below average (in spite of leading the league in shot differential) for shots taken between and just on top of the circles, which are often the most dangerous areas. In fact, the few shots like that I can remember were mostly due to Aho carrying the puck by himself from the blueline behind the net and then passing for a shot from the slot.
For the forwards to succeed, the system needs to change allowing the D to be more involved.
3) Goaltending will be average to slightly below, but not bad enough to sink the season. The Canes will have at least 4 20-goal scorers (Aho, TT, Svech, and one of Zykov, McGinn, or a resurgent Rask). I think the attitude can recover. However, I am worried about the cliche that committees make poor decisions.
Someone said that the upside for this team is the 2016/17 version of the Jets. I think it’s actually a very good analogy. I’d expect glimpses of greatness, inconsistency and pushing near the playoffs at best, with a potential for a breakout next season.
I think the point on Darling’s possible addiction could be spot on. If he relapsed that would affect not only his physical reaction and quickness but also his mental sharpness. The number of whoopsies we witnessed last year is consistent with that.
I’m not “accusing” him of anything, and if it happened, well, I’ve seen great people handle addiction very badly and I know breaking out of it is incredibly difficult, so no shame in that, and all the power to Scotty if he can do it.
A friend of mine from Chicago said that he’s a legend in his home town, there are even streets named after him there. It was clear in the interviews I saw that he did not want to be here, he just wanted to go back.
Hopefully he has overcome some of those demons and bad feelings towards Carolina and feels fitter, happier and more productive.
A good start to the season is key. Holding late game leads for wins, pulling wins out of late game ties, even winning shoot outs. An occasional smile from the hockey gods wouldn’t hurt either. The team needs the “swagger” that is only built by success on the ice. A team plus/minus slightly positive and at least a wild card position at Thanksgiving is essential.
Fellow posters- not cool to speak to the idea of Darling’s addiction. I agree he seems happier this summer but unless you know he was struggling with something outside of hockey this past year it would be better left unsaid. Unsubstantiated rumors don’t help anyone.
I agree – Darling was actually asked about it post-season and refused to comment.
Meh…it’s reality. It’s a medical condition no different from a bad shoulder. The fact that we treat it as such is an issue. The stigma around mental health issues add to the problems people have dealing with them.
Granted, being horrible and cruel about them is out of line, but I haven’t noticed that here.
I think the issue is one of speculating whether he relapsed as a cause of some of his issues last season and whether that is a worthy matter of discussion.
Yes, speculating on whether he relapsed isn’t a good idea. I was responding to the post that said it wasn’t cool to speak to Darling’s addiction. That’s a different story. It’s a medical condition and should be treated the same as any other medical condition. If it’s off limits so should a discussion of a player’s back problems.
Agreed with lessthanstable. Mental issues are very much a part of life that affect at least 25 percent of Americans.
I can’t speak for lessthanstable, but from my perspective I speak on it solely as one who knows, from personal experience, how that can permeate into every day life, including addiction issues. Now it could very well be that his addiction was completely unrelated to any sort of mental issue and last year was completely 100% hockey related.
That being said, those of us who watched Darling last year and who are well aware of the mental roller coaster of life, saw the signs of how he was performing on the ice, reacting to everything that happened, and how he came in with the pressure on from the beginning, and you can easily see how that pressure could build up and lead to the snowball effect of last season. In no way do I include any substance abuse in this, but merely acknowledging the clear mental pressure that was on him last year, and it’s not always easy for people to deal with.
Further, lessthanstable is 100% right. Mental illness is just as much a legitimate medical topic of discussion on any player, as would be a knee injury or a back injury. Surely those of you who have had knee injuries before have an idea how hard they can be to get back to full strength and can empathize with the player’s efforts to get there.
Relatedly, some of us have some idea of how hard mental illness and obstacles can be to overcome and we too, empathize with the players efforts to get there.
Do we know we’re right on this assessment? No. Is it the most likely scenario given all the facts? Yes.
1. I am in the camp that one or both Darling and Mrazek will have solid bounceback seasons, so I expect “serviceable” goaltending at the least.
I am record as thinking the young forwards will do fine and will shine this season – particularly Svech. Have you seen pictures of Necas since he returned to Raleigh? He has continued his physical development and it shows.
RBA may bring the attitude change but I am not sold as him being a coach. I think a better transition would have seen him stepping in during last season – I expect would have seen a pressure-relief rebound just as we saw when Muller took over from Maurice. But that model doesn’t work so well coming into the start of the season, and I think less so with such a turnover in players. He might be able to match them in the weight room but can he coach behind the bench. Time will tell.
2. I think you missed the biggest problem last year, Matt – and this goes beyond individual performance – our poor play in the D-zone when forechecking and clearing pucks that led to high-danger shots on goal. I don’t know if that was system, bad training in the system, or what – and it doesn’t pigeonhole into a typical stratum because it wasn’t just the defense – it was truly everyone working in the D-zone. This is such a key item to me. This plus RBA as a bench coach will make the difference this season.
3. I think I addressed this above, but:
Goaltending – improves to better than serviceable
Young guns – will play impressively
Coaching – ???
D-zone play – ???
I agree that the three highlighted areas are critical but would like to add a fourth. Key veterans need to be at their best. They can’t just pass the baton to a new generation and blame the kids if things don’t work out. Ideally: Jordan Staal equals his best, 25g, 25a, 50 pts; Viktor Rask equals his best, 21, 27, 48; Micheal Ferland equals his best, 21, 20, 41; if here, Justin Faulk equals his best season, 14, 34, 49. If it’s reasonable to ask kids to perform at a high level from day 1 in the NHL, it’s reasonable to ask vets to match a level of performance that they’ve already proven they are capable of.
I think the goaltending will be better because the defense will be better and the goalies’ careers are on the line.
The question about the rookies will be what does it mean for them to hit the ground running? Does Svechnikov have to play like Laine and Necas like Pastrnak? Or will it be enough if Svechnikov outscores Lindholm and Necas outperforms Ryan?
Success in all the other areas depends on coaching – putting the right players in the right combinations and motivating them to give their all. It will be interesting to see if RBA’s intensity as a player translates to putting intense pressure on the team in a demotivating way or to getting the team to play with intensity themselves. RBA always led by example when he was on the ice. Now he has to lead without being on the ice. I like giving RBA a shot but am not confident that the team as a whole will surprise on the upside. I think that’s a good possibility but not the only possibility.
If things go south, I will suddenly want RBA to be good at tanking. I’m pretty sure he won’t be good at that.
svechnech1 Williams is likely the veteran leader of the team–don’t you expect him to put up 76 points?
Seriously, I think only one of Staal, Rask, or McGinn needs to have a career type season. And I don’t expect it to be Rask because I am not sure he gets power play time. That is the same reason I expect Ferland to end with 10-12 goals.
I see the PP units as:
1=Aho, Teravainen, Svechnikov, Staal, Hamilton
2=Williams, Necas, Zykov, McGinn, Faulk (Pesce if Faulk is moved)
The challenge with both those will be losing the puck on the initial face-off. Staal is strong in the circle, but the team will miss Lindholm and, believe it or not, Ryan.
Now once the Canes set up the power play, I think Svechnikov and Zykov will improve the chances of scoring dramatically. In fact, if Aho (or maybe Teravainen) can get above 50% on face-offs, then I think the first unit should be Aho, Teravainen, Svechnikov, Zykov.
I think tanking is at best a 50/50 proposition. The rookies and any call-ups would be intent on winning. So moving Rask and Martinook at the trade deadline might unintentionally improve the team the last month as the replacements (Kuokkanen, Foegele?) would give the team a boost in energy.
Ctcaniac, I agree it’s unlikely that all the vets will have career years. I still think they should have as much pressure on them to perform as the rookies do. I think discussions (my own included) have gone overboard in terms of placing the burden on the rookies to make a success of the season. We could argue about whether success means making the playoffs or identifying the core team to make the playoffs next season. We all want the Canes to make the playoffs but that’s asking a lot, especially if the burden falls hardest on Svechnikov, Necas and Zykoff. I’d like to see the vets lead by example on the ice the way RBA did. If that happens, it will be easier for the rookies to break in and for the Canes to make the playoffs. Everything you said is right but I still think pressure should be on the vets to perform to the max.
I understand the point about Williams as a veteran leader. I’m not sure he’s still capable of leading by on-ice performance. He’s willing but he looked pretty slow last year.
Your point about the replacements making the team stronger if the Canes try to tank is spot on. I have no argument against it. I’d still hate it if the Canes finish in the mediocre middle. The Canes aren’t likely to move way up in the lottery two years in a row.
It is one of the most frustrating things about the last 8 or 10 years that the Canes couldn’t make the playoffs, yet could not tank enough to acquire super talent.
If no NHL (RFA or UFA) star player wants to move to Raleigh, the only way to acquire top talent is to draft and develop it, but the over-all Canes’ first round drafting was poor (look no further than the fact that the Canes just traded away their two #5 and one #7 picks, that people agree were their best, at least until last year). The Canes had access to star playres in the making at the lower end of the first round, but those are much harder to identify. With a top 3 pick in one or multiple years the Canes would have had a high chance to acquire a difference maker player.
Drafting alone does not create a winning team (just look at the Oilers) but it provides some resemblance of hope after a disappointing season.
So, playoffs or tanking is the way to go, the worst case scenario has the Canes in their usual 9th or 10th place looking in.
I agree 100%. How do you think the Canes can best pursue the goal of not finishing in the middle? Go all-in with as many kids as possible from day 1? Send the kids to Albany or junior and try as many vets as possible, then if they aren’t high in the standings by Christmas trade them all for [prospects or picks? I want this to happen but don’t know how to make it work in practice. On either strategy, you might just have a lousy season and still not get a top pick.
At least the new draft lottery odds make tanking a bit less attractive, which is a good thing when the season is lost.
Adding Jack Hughes to this group of forwards wouldn’t be terrible I admit. But better yet to make the playoffs this season.
It all starts tomorrow people, not the thing thing, but the pre thing, it’s gonna be a wild thing.
Everything starts and stops with goaltending. Yes, we need more scoring and yes, the excellent young defenders (plus the new additions) need to play the game we know they are capable of delivering. But, in the end, if the gamble on goaltending doesn’t pan out, this is a lost season. This is where I’m fairly optimistic. Darling very well may bounce back, but my money’s on Petr Mrazek taking the crease and running with it this season. I could see something like a 45/37 split between the two, w/Darling being serviceable and Mrazek being the goalie he was three years ago. I’m not worried at all about Roddy and I can’t really put my finger on why. He just seems to have the respect of the room.
We’ve got 2 guys who are top tier-ish scorers….Aho and Teravainen. We’ve got 2 other’s that are in the proven 40-50 point range in Staal and Williams. Rask has a 50/50 shot at getting back there (but if he does indeed slot into a 4th line role, then that’s a bit more questionable) and Brock McGinn is trending in the direction of a potential 40 point guy. But we need one or both of our new Russians to step up in the offensive zone.
One last point that others have made. Dougie Hamilton likely gets his 40-50 points, but I look for Justin Faulk to have a significant bounce back season. I’m talking over 15 goals and over 40 points. If that happens then worries about the forward scoring might be over-blown.