Though it was hidden from the main page by some weird ordering logic, there was a Daily Cup of Joe article for Tuesday for those who found it through the link on Twitter or simply went into the DCoJ tab. It was ‘sneak preview’ part 1 of 2 previewing potential roster battles for the last three forward slots.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe takes on the somewhat more straightforward battles possible to fill out the Hurricanes blue line to start the 2017-18 NHL season.
The assumed starting point for the blue line
My math (and I think virtually everyone’s) says that Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, Justin Faulk, Noah Hanifin and Trevor van Riemsdyk are pretty much penned into the lineup. One of the big story lines to watch in preseason is how Peters decides to set his top 4 at least to start the season.
Penciled in right now
Despite not having played an NHL game yet, I am on record as thinking that Haydn Fleury enters training camp as the player hoped and expected to seize the sixth and final defense slot in the lineup.
Though Fleury will be given every opportunity to win this slot, I do not see Peters and/or Francis forcing the issue if he just is not ready yet. The goal for 2017-18 is to win, and Peters will build the lineup most capable of doing that whether it includes Fleury or not.
The potential battle for the final slot in the lineup
If Fleury does not look ready in preseason, the door cracks open for a few other players to play their way into the lineup in September. The expected fallback option right now would be Klas Dahlbeck who played better during the second half of the 2016-17 season and looked much more comfortable on his natural left side (which is where he would be if playing alongside van Riemsdyk). But if the door swings open, I would also expect Trevor Carrick to throw everything he has at finally busting through the divider between the AHL and NHL. And though Fleury surpassed him in terms of pecking order during the AHL season, Roland McKeown actually exited the 2016-17 training camp ahead of Fleury and having won the tryout only to bumped down when Francis added reinforcements via waivers. As a right shot, McKeown seems like a long shot, but I would not expect that to keep him from trying to push up into the conversation.
By virtue of being the only one of the four players on a one-way contract and also having the least to benefit from AHL ice time, Dahlbeck seems like a lock for the #7 slot if he does not steal the #6 slot. Whichever of Fleury, Carrick and McKeown does not win the #6 slot is likely destined for more seasoning in the AHL.
What does it take for each player to make it?
Haydn Fleury: If he looks reasonably comfortable and capable of playing at the NHL level, I think it is his job to lose. I think it takes Fleury clearly not looking ready for the competition to open up.
Klas Dahlbeck: I think he is the front runner for plan B if Fleury needs more time in the NHL. Dahlbeck has significant NHL experience and is a known quantity with the coaching staff after spending the 2016-17 at the NHL level.
Trevor Carrick: To make the opening day lineup (barring injuries), Fleury would need to falter and then Carrick would need to significantly outplay Dahlbeck in training camp to justify the risk of going with a lesser-known player.
Roland McKeown: His chances would improve with an injury to a right shot defenseman; otherwise he would need to play so well that Peters considered tinkering with the lineup to make room for McKeown. van Riemsdyk did play some on his off side, so there is a chance he could move over to play next to McKeown, but only if McKeown is the best tryout defenseman by a wide margin in preseason.
What say you Caniacs?
Do you agree that Haydn Fleury is the front runner to win the sixth blue line slot for opening night?
Despite having yet to play an NHL regular season game, do you think Fleury will prove ready for NHL action and make for a predictable, ho-hum training camp in terms of sorting out the defense?
Go Canes!
Fleury is the front-runner for one of the spots. I won’t call it sixth because I believe (hope) that the Canes will enter the 21st century and move beyond the six blue liners paired as 1-2, 3-4, 5-6.
Hockey is a strong-link sport (the different analysts who have looked at this make a compelling case). That means that the most talented players should be positioned throughout the lineup. The reason for that is that strong players improve the play of weaker line mates more than weak players “drag down” others. The biggest outlier, however, is two weaker players. The numbers for the Tennyson/Dahlbeck pairing last year really make this point.
So when Fleury makes the cut, the best move is to pair him with Pesce (surely this can be tried in camp and pre-season games). The article Corey Sznajder wrote for C&C linked to some information about playing styles. Slavin, Hanifin, and Faulk are “puck movers.” Pesce falls into the “volume shooter” category. TVR is “defense oriented” but on the border of being a puck mover. As a rookie, Fleury is likely to be “defense oriented.” The weakest possible pairing is two “defense oriented” D-men. Given the Canes’ current D, the best combination is pairing one of the defense oriented with a volume shooter. Bottom line is that Fleury will reach his top ten draft potential if used properly.
I understand that Pesce and Slavin have some special chemistry–but so did Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie.
It will be interesting to see how the lines are made up. I wouldn’t mind seeing a balanced lineup on the road to help Fluery’s integration. You can see a difference in development when a guy can make some mistakes without paying too much for them.
Seth Jones had a solid partner when he started and Hanifin not so much. Not to say Hanifin is equal to Jones but I believe Noah would be farther along if he had a solid partner. We saw his confidence and play improve once he got a solid partner.
Maybe one the road:
Slavin-Faulk
Fleury-Pesce
Hanifin-TVR
Home
Slavin-Pesce
Hanifin-Faulk
Fleury-TVR
We can dictate the matchups at home and help make Fleury more successful. Hanifin, TVR line would be targeted on the road. TVR is twice the partner Hanifin had last season.
A little more about this topic. I try to understand the various aspects of our discussions. A great resource for me is hockeyviz.com. It really helps when I can see things in charts.
Several commenters agreed with “if it ain’t broke don’t fix it” in regard to Carolina’s top pairing. But what if the entire D is broken? Hockeyviz’ latest article provides analytics on goalie performance. I can’t imagine the analyst is intentionally biased, so it was pretty amazing that Ward was better than average last year and Lack was close to top 10. Both fared better than Darling.
I understand it is just one metric. But it raises the distinct possibility that the D sans Pesce and Slavin was much at fault for the first 3/4 of the season.
Maybe Darling is not the key to 17-18. Maybe it is how the D pairings are utilized.
I absolutely think that Fleury is the frontrunner for 3L. And from what I saw of his play in Charlotte last season he is definitely ready for the NHL. He will have his growing pains and that will be one of Dahlbeck’s roles – to step in and spell Fleury the same way that Peters let Hanifin and Rask (I think) sit in the press box a few games in their rookie seasons.
Dahlbeck will then serve as backup for both the left side and the right (I expect after last season he has spent more time working on the right side).
I don’t really think that McKeown “won the tryout” – at least not over Fleury. McKeown went north at the start of last season because we only had 3 right-side D-men and he was only there until the team met up with Nakladal. So I think that McKeown won the tryout over Carrick – but Carrick was sent to Charlotte earlier, so I think it was implied that McKeown would travel as a right-side backup until the team got another one BP thought was more NHL-ready.
I don’t see McKeown outcompeting Fleury for the 6th spot. McKeown plays on the right and it would mean that Dahlbeck-McKeown or, more likely, TvR(playing on his off side)-McKeown were more effective than Fleury-TvR(on his correct side). I don’t see that happening.
And I don’t see Carrick as being an NHL-level D-man – I think he is a career-AHLer who would only be brought up in a pinch. And I would think McKeown would get the call-up sooner.
Yes, Haydn Fleury is the front runner to win the sixth blue line slot.
I do believe he will be ready. I think you were right that it is his to loose. McKeown will be waiting in the wings if Fleury has issues. I really though McKeown was going to come up last year until RF brought in all the D men. McKeown was injured last year but he is definitely NHL capable IMO.