Thus far, Rod Brind’Amour’s M.O. for line combinations, defense pairings and power play units has leaned strongly toward patience. He has ridden three forward lines almost 100 percent through all nine games. With minimal in-game adjustments here and there, the same is mostly true for the defense pairings. And though the power play was struggling, Brind’Amour also held steadfast to his original sets of five until Monday when he finally tinkered a bit. The sample size is tiny, but it is hard to argue with the two-goal outburst.
Yesterday’s Daily Cup of Joe considered five possible sources of upside for the Hurricanes. Today’s Daily Cup of Joe follows on the theme of seeking constant improvement and considers whether the success of Monday’s power play tinkering could encourage Brind’Amour to finally consider tinkering a bit with other parts of the lineup.
What’s working
Despite Teuvo Teravainen being off to a bit of a slow start with only an empty-netter in the goal column, the Ferland/Aho/Teravainen line has produced more than its fair share of scoring and has established itself as a legitimate top scoring line in the early going. Scoring has slowed with no goals in the last four games, Foegele/Staal/Williams has also been generally solid. Finally, Martinook/Wallmark/Svechnikov has at least provided intermittent depth scoring.
On the blue line, my assessment is that the current configuration is working reasonably well especially in terms of providing balance. Justin Faulk looks better with Calvin de Haan. Brind’Amour has taken to using a Brett Pesce-led third (I guess) pairing for match ups he likes some nights. And Jaccob Slavin and Dougie Hamilton are just two very good hockey players. So at least at a basic level, I would not say that anything is broken on the blue line.
Room for improvement
But I do think there is some room for improvement. Nicolas Roy will be the third attempt to spark a fourth line that has languished offensively. He was off to a great start in Charlotte, so giving the hot hand a couple games to show something and earn more ice time makes sense. But if Roy is not the answer, any forward line tinkering could be focused here. In addition, with Teravainen not off to a great start and suddenly hesitant to shoot the puck, is it actually possible that Aho’s line could do even more with a third member who can finish better right now?
On defense, Slavin and Hamilton combined have been ‘meh’ so far. I think Slavin is off to a good start. I think Hamilton is off to a bit of a slow start. But most significantly, I just am not sure the too mesh well. The decent but not great level of play seems like 1+1=1.75 for two players whose skill set is as high as theirs.
Possible tinkering
Teravainen’s slot
After watching Aho and Teravainen in 2017-18, a short stretch of nine games is not going to convince me that they do not ultimately belong together. But with Teravainen sputtering a bit, I wonder if a short-term shake up could help Teravainen and possibly even get another scorer going. I would be curious to see Svechnikov get some shifts in Teravainen’s slot. With the way Aho is dishing the puck right now, there are scoring chances to be had on both sides of him. Micheal Ferland has capitalized to the tune of a team-leading six goals. Aho has a first assist on two of those goals and a second assist on three others. With Svechnikov acclimated a bit, a short audition in a slot that affords him more good scoring chances could be well-timed.
With any stint that separates Aho and Teravainen, I would keep a really close watch on Aho’s game. As I noted above, because of chemistry, I think the duo ultimately end up back together. If I saw any kind of dip in Aho’s play, that would be sooner rather than later.
The fourth line
Teravainen could just swap with Svechnikov and slot next to Wallmark. As long as he continues to get his regular helping of power play ice time, his minutes would not dip significantly. But what might be more interesting is to see if Teravainen can conjure some depth scoring out of the fourth line that has been mostly silent thus far.
For a completely rogue version of a temporary shake up, could Teravainen center that quiet line. The team has players with some scoring potential on the wings of that line. Brock McGinn scored 16 goals in 2017-18, and Valentin Zykov led the AHL in scoring before scoring a respectable three in ten games at the NHL level in 2017-18. I do not foresee Teravainen as a center long-term, but short term consider that the team is struggling to fill that fourth center slot right now. And just maybe a bit of a pep talk and a challenge in a different role are just what the doctor ordered to get Teravainen fully launched into the 2018-19 season.
If not Teravainen, I do not think Wallmark’s line has been so good that I would not consider swapping a player from the fourth to the third line to see if such a move could help broaden the depth scoring.
The blue line
The blue line is a tough one. As noted above, the group has been decent in general thus far. But I just cannot help wanting more from the team’s best players, especially Dougie Hamilton. Even if it is just in-game adjustments when looking for a spark, I would consider getting Hamilton some minutes with other partners. My thinking is that his game might pick up a bit if he gets into a situation where he gets to tote the puck a bit more. Joni Pitkanen’s game always seemed to be its best in games where he had the puck on his stick a bunch. It is mostly speculation, but I wonder if Hamilton’s total game sees a modest uptick in a slightly different situation.
What say you Canes fans?
1) With the team off to a 5-3-1 start and many things working well, do you consider it outlandish to do some minor lineup tinkering right now?
2) What are your thoughts on moving Teravainen to see if it sparks him and possibly whoever slides into his slot? With the line clicking, the ‘if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it’ mantra that I usually live and die by could definitely apply. But on the other hand, maybe a short-term change of scenery sparks Teravainen.
3) If you were to tinker a bit, what changes would you consider?
Go Canes!
I think some tinkering makes sense, although appreciate RBA’s patience. Not sure that I would do anything with the D pairs 5v5, but I would definitely give Hamilton more PP time.
I really like the chemistry of Ferland and Aho, while it feels like TT has been less important to the line’s success so far. He’s essentially goalless when you take out the empty netter.
I wonder about flipping TT and Williams. Staal makes everyone better and TT might feel more responsibility to shoot puck on line with Staal-Foegele. Williams would be a set up man for Aho-Ferland. He still plays a smart game, even if he slows the line down a little. The main point is about getting TT scoring more goals while keeping the pace from Aho-Ferland.
I think we are not giving TT enough credit for what he’s doing on that line. He’s making a lot of plays that are driving scoring and has 8 points in 9 games – only his linemates Ferland and Aho have more. He does seem hesitant to shoot but the goals will come. I would do nothing to disrupt our most potent line until it stops scoring – to me, it really doesn’t matter who scores as long as the puck is going in. We have all been waiting for a legit top scoring line and now we have one; I have no idea why we would want to break it up.
If I’m tinkering at all, I wonder if Svetch and JW should switch lines or have McGinn and Foegele switch places for a while.
On defense, I agree with darth: Dougie needs more PP time. We could always revert to Slavin-Pesce (a known entity) but I think Pesce helps elevate JvR more than he would elevate Slavin and the drop-off in a pairing with JvR might be more pronounced if Dougie played with him instead of Pesce. I keep as-is for now. Our defense has been fine.
The reality is this: with a league-average PP and PK, we’ve lost one game and have the best record in the league. That’s what needs tinkering the most.
Matt. You are an excellent analyst and probably more knowledgeable about Canes hockey than some of the staff. Personally I have learned much from C&C.
So I can see your argument for moving Teravainen. Still I disagree. First, TT has 8 points in 9 games. He isn’t getting goals yet, but he is scoring. Maybe there is an unwritten rule that only one Finn can score goals for Carolina during the month of October. TT is helping Aho and Ferland score. Second, he and Aho dominated the World Championship. The LW with them, Savinainen, was a point-per-game player. That is what we are seeing with Ferland—who has a great shot and is good at finding open areas—BOTH Aho and TT are excellent at moving off each other and both are terrific passers. Third, TT is underrated defensively. Ferland is average, so putting Svechnikov with them would put more defensive responsibility on Aho.
Getting Svechnikov more opportunities is a great idea. I like putting him with Foegele and Staal (Matt, I know you were rightfully concerned about rookies on Staal’s line due to that line’s heavy defensive responsibility, but thus far Foegele has been solid and Svechnikov’s mobility could compensate for the loss of Williams’ savvy). Foegele/Staal/Svechnikov could get Svechnikov scoring on a regular basis. Williams’ leadership would create a more productive third line with Zykov and Wallmark.
That would be my preference. Though using TT at center might be brilliant. In that case I would let him center Svechnikov. The challenge is balancing both Aho and TT’s line. I guess the most interesting option is Wallmark at wing. Maybe the TT centered line makes sense once Rask returns.
Hamiltion could eventually pose a conundrum. His offense will win games. However, he and Slavin are average at best at defending odd-man rushes. Both have been burned and that paring seems to give up one or two every game. The good aspect of the defensive pairings so far is the nearly equal amount of ice time.
The other “tinker” that should happen is getting Slavin off the second power play unit. He received significant power play time the end of last season. The numbers indicate he was less than 1/2 as productive as the next least productive skater 5 on 4. Maybe BP was too analytics driven, but in this case the evidence this season supports the numbers.
I’m not much on line tinkering when things are going well. Unless there is a glaring problem it puts a negative spotlight on an individual player. Teravainen is not playing up to his own standards, IMO. Still, he has a pretty good history of playing well with Aho and to pitch him after 8 games would be pretty extreme. I don’t see it helpful to Teravainen at all to move him to a less offensive line. He certainly doen’t need the defensive responsibilities of being a centerman. He is the weakest guy on the boards and in front of the net on the team. Not center material, IMO.
Svechnikov will get his time to play on a line with more accomplished teammates. Injuries will happen. He will move up and then may stay. Again, bumping down Williams from a line that is working just sends a negative message, and to your captain!
Also, everyone wants to blame defensemen for all the odd man rushes. That’s often not the case. Forwards are supposed to recognize when a d-man pinches and react accordingly on defense. Often it doesn’t happen. D-men have to recognize when they can’t pinch because a forward isn’t in position to help as well. It’s team defense, not just defensemen. Again, making a determination about a defensive pair of veterans after 8 games is silly, IMO.
I know we are searching for stuff to talk about, but when you are winning you want to pour gas on the fire, not move the logs around.