I had ambitious plans of finishing up a fairly in-depth article on the Carolina Hurricanes defense, but after a long day and another tough home loss on Tuesday night, I just did not have the time and/or energy to finish it. My hope is to post that for Thursday morning.
Instead, today’s Daily Cup of Joe will touch on that only at a high level and combine it with a couple other issues that seem to be on a constant rotation in a bad way.
Putting aside leadership, character, winning culture and whatever other fuzzy, hard-to-measure items you want to also lump into this category, I see three specific issues that are less fuzzy that are at the root of the Hurricanes’ troubles and seem to at times (like right now) have the team plugging one hole only to have water start leaking from the boat from another hole.
1) Goaltending
Interesting is how quickly problems seem to rise and fade right now. After two lackluster outings effort-wise and virtually no offense over the weekend, the goaltending issue that seemed to be top of mind only a few days earlier was suddenly a lesser concern for many. In the Monday Coffee Shop, in a poll that asked readers, “Who shoulders the most blame right now?”, readers voted the goaltending a distant fourth behind the skaters, Ron Francis and Bill Peters.
Despite the fact that other matters might seem more pressing right now, the Hurricanes rate near the bottom of the league based on most statistics. The team has had more than its fair share of starts where the Canes starting netminder was bad enough to sabotage all else and push a game into the loss column. And beyond that, statistically sub-par netminding’s ‘a goal here, a goal there’ effect also subtracts points over time.
No doubt, the Hurricanes would be in a better place right now with more consistent at least league average netminding.
2) Forward fire power and the lack of catalysts
While the Hurricanes depth at the forward position has improved over the past few years, the team is still short in terms of higher-end offensive forwards. When I consider the center position, I would not say that the Hurricanes have a single center who would be a top 6 in terms of playmaking skill and ability to generate scoring chances by distributing the puck to line mates. I do think Jordan Staal is a legitimate top 6 forward and a perfect yin and yang complements to a more offense-leaning center, but the Hurricanes really do not have such a player right now at least who is playing the center position. Instead, the Hurricanes have two offense-leaning players in Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen book-ending Staal. The line has been the team’s best, and it does score but only in relative terms looking within a team that generally lacks scoring. Despite being team high in scoring, Teravainen and Aho’s 41 and 40 points respectively are a good 10-20 points behind the leaders on many teams, and the Hurricanes see a significant drop off from there.
I continue to think that the Hurricanes are at least one player away offensively at the forward position. During the entire offseason, I clamored for the addition of a playmaking center capable of being a catalyst for a scoring line and boosting the scoring totals of two line mates in the process. That is still one way to skin the cat, but if the Hurricanes think that Sebastian Aho ultimately belongs back at the center position and possibly also want to leave room for Martin Necas in case he beats schedule, then just maybe the answer is to add a wing who could support the transition. (Therein lies my recent consideration of Max Pacioretty who is allegedly available.)
Regardless of if it is a center or a wing, I continue to think that the Hurricanes are one top 6 scoring forward away from being able to consistently score enough.
3) A talented but still learning blue line
Last but not least is the blue line. Canes fans have been talking about the blue line becoming a strength in the future for so long now, that it is sometimes assumed that the transformation is complete. While the blue line does have its games when the group’s skating ability rises up and helps tilt the ice into the offensive zone, it also fairly regularly suffers growing pains. High ceilings may eventually be reached, but they do not match the reality of today that sees the Hurricanes still struggling at times to be solid two defense pairings deep. I talked about this on a player by player basis on January 25, but the short version is that the Hurricanes still lack steady, every-game top 4 defensemen who can be counted on game in and game out.
In addition, the Hurricanes blue line in total continues to be light in terms of offensive production. The ability to produce offense is a must-have in today’s NHL for a defensive group to claim greatness and it is even more critical for a team like the Hurricanes that lacks elite scorers and is scratching and clawing for enough goals to reach the league average.
That last component, offense from the blue line, is the subject of my half-written article that considers that subject about three layers deep.
The multiplier effect
All NHL teams have strengths and weaknesses and in a league where half of the teams make the playoffs, a team does not have to be flawless. But the issue that the Hurricanes have in 2017-18 is that they just have too many weak links such that one of the three seems to rise up regularly. The Hurricanes have had stretches where the goal scoring was there but managed to have that sabotaged by shoddy goaltending or defense. More recently, the team’s netminding has been mostly better, but the lack of 5-on-5 scoring by the forwards has the scraping to get to two goals and mostly not making it of late. And the defense seems to have what I term a ‘train wreck’ game defensively about once every 6-10 games.
The visual that I keep getting is one of Coach Bill Peters trying to stop water from leaking in from the side of the boat. At any given point in time, he has two hands and can plug two holes, but if a third emerges, it is simply impossible. I think that is the state of the team right now — simply one too many holes to cover to win on an extended and/or consistent basis.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Which of these three issues do you see as most detrimental?
2) Do you see others?
Go Canes!
Matt,
Thank you very much for your help recently. I love the password. It is apt. I think you have posed some interesting questions for us all to ponder. As you know, while I agree with you that we need a scoring catalyst, we do not agree on what type of player that should be. You would prefer someone like Matt Duchene or Ryan Nugent-Hopkins while I would prefer Milan Lucic or Patrick Maroon or Wayne Simmonds.
I recently read Eklund’s latest rumors and he has said that the Canes are really going after Max Pacioretty. To be sure, this Max has a long scoring history. He is running hot in that department, even as we speak. Ek acknowledges that this Max will be very pricey, in more ways than one.
May I suggest that we pursue another Max? This Max can play either left wing or center. He is 22 years old. He has played in the NHL for almost 3 seasons (including this one). In the 192 games he has played in the NHL, he has scored 112 points with 82 of them assists. He is a playmaker.
This should make RF happy, Max is on his third year of his entry level contract. He is not expensive for now, and he will be a restricted free agent when it expires. He plays for Arizona and they are saying they aren’t shopping him, but will listen to offers. He wouldn’t cost nearly as much as the other Max to get.
Finally, we have the part that makes me happy. It would seem that young Max has inherited key elements of his Dad’s hockey DNA. Like his Dad, Tie Domi, Max is a bit undersized but he can pack a wallop. He plays the game with an edge; a big, jagged edge. So far this season, he has 32 hits to his credit in 52 games. Also like his Dad, he doesn’t mind dropping his gloves.
I know. It’s too much to hope for. But I can dream, can’t I? My beloved Canes scoring goals to a packed house. People standing and shouting their excitement as they watch our scorers score, the horn blowing more than once per game, the boards crashing as Max as well as the other players he inspires send enemy players careening into the boards. Oh! Yes! And the stress of having to cough up more money as I pay for my seats as we progress deeper into the playoffs.
I know. I know. It’s only a dream.
Powerless, I like both of your Max’s. Would prefer the Montreal brand if I had a choice.
Powerless…Great to see we finally got your login sorted out. Welcome aboard!
Also great to see that Eklund still reads my stuff.:-)
1. Season long issue: Goaltending. You won’t make the playoffs if you need a touchdown every game to win.
Recently: scoring. The D aren’t scoring at all, Aho and Turbo have 12 goals to the rest of the forward group’s 13, and the 4th line is making me miss the days of Jay McClement’s high powered offense.
2. The unwillingness of BP and GMRF to call up some of our AHL depth to try for scoring.
Matt, it is hard to decide which of your three is the most important. But if only one can be addressed right now from some external source, give me that first line scoring center or first line scoring forward. I don’t believe there is an outside source for upgrading the goaltending. I would hope Darling can jump up here and rise to the occasion. Defensive scoring can be solved internally by the coaching staff asserting its authority and demanding the defense to get more involved in the offense or pull one or two defensemen from Charlotte if they won’t. I would add that management apparently underestimated Hainsey’s importance to our team defense especially considering the youngness of our defensemen.
Other problems? Sure, players getting there ice time because they “play hard” at not requiring them to otherwise show any other ability (Nordstrom, Kruger, DiGuiseppe for example). With our overabundance of young forwards in Charlotte it make no sense to even retain any of the above three forwards IMO. Our GM and coach appear to be timid when it comes to having to make big decisions to improve the makeup of the team and to improve the team’s on-ice performance. By on-ice I’m referring to coaches failing to get players to do such things like get in front of the net, not once in a while when they feel like it, but every time down the ice. Coaches not being able to get the players to stop continually passing up open shots and scoring chances to make yet another pass. Coaches failing to get Skinner to integrate his offensive game with that of the rest of his teammates. Our team is very young and being so requires strong coaching to develop these players, but I don’t believe Peters is strong in that area. He isn’t assertive enough top demand improved performance. He believes as many of our failed coaches in the past have believed, that the team is made up of two classes of players. Your better players who you coddle and never hold accountable and your 2nd class players who you hold accountable for all failing by shifting them between playing and being healthy scratches. For example, Jooris and DiGuiseppe, Fleury and Dahlback, these players if you looked at how they have been handled, have been the players most responsible for our lack of success on the ice. Do you believe that is the case?
1. Powerless…You put your finger on one GLARING ISSUE…THE CANDYCANES! Domi could raise the “testosterone” level of this “touch-hockey” gaggle 100%!
Does anybody actually bother to keep track of the hits/ gm, for the Canes?
The other Max (and dozens of other people potentially available) would all be TERRIFIC IMPROVEMENTS to this anemic “scoring machine”…LOL!!
Seriously, how hard can it be to find a couple ECHL or AHL PLAYERS who could score 5-10 goals a season? …a real improvement !
…I wanted to mention a good article over at CANES COUNTRY…today (written by Cody Hagan…I think) He has some good comments/ incite!
Faulk + Rask for Phaneuf + JG Pageau
Phaneuf shares a lot of similarities to Justin Faulk – physical, not the best defensive player, big shot. One difference – Phaneuf is unfortunately overpaid for his value while despite Faulk’s shortcomings this year he is not on a bad contract.
I would gladly exchange Pageau for Rask but I don’t think Ottawa would like it as much as we would… Other than Rask’s one good offensive season he has proven that he is a slow footed, perimeter oriented, at-best 3rd line center being paid 4 million dollars on a long term deal… Unfortunately Rask has little to no value I’d imagine.
I am not going to be critical of your proposed trade but it does highlight the problem a GM has to making deals and why a GM has to be somewhat of an informed gambler. I believe RF is too timid as a GM and is afraid to make any deals involving major players.
My opinion is we are currently losing with the cast we have. What could possibly happen as a result of your proposed trade. 1) Phaneuf’s physicality (100+ hits + 110+ blocked shots so far this season putting him in the top 5 for defensemen in these categories, his experience, and his sporadic goal scoring along with Pageau say replicating or bettering Rask’s performance gets us to the playoffs, or 2) both Pageau and Phaneuf perform at a lower level than what Faulk and Rask do for Ottawa and we miss the playoffs. In the case 1) the GM is a winner. In case 2) above he has lost nothing as we aren’t winning with Faulk and Rask. It is irrelevant how they perform with Ottawa, what is relevant is how they are performing for us which is not good. This is a hard prospect for a GM to accept.
So my surmise is a GM comes down to and he puts the emphasis on “What do we have to lose?” with your proposal. Since there is always the possibility that the deal could turn out bad for us, the answer becomes “Too much” and we remain with the status quo hoping for the best; i.e. take the Scarlett O’Hara attitude of “Fiddle-dee-dee, tomorrow will be a better day.”
You make a good point about taking a chance. I just suppose I would love to see this current group supplemented with a trade/free agent acquisition or two and at least one that is a difference making forward on the team without subtracting. I truly believe if we had an overall better team Skinner + Faulk would be properly slotted as elite support players (rather than key drivers who struggle with that role) and people would see their value more clearly. I follow the Leafs quite a bit as well (home town team, but go Canes), and Phil Kessel and Dion Phaneuf fit similarly into the categories that Skinner and Faulk play now. Both counted on to do too much, and ran out of town (but partly due to bad contracts). Yet Kessel has shown his value as an elite winger that can prey on weaker dpairings in Pittsburgh and Phaneuf has some value as a 2nd pairing defenseman. A big difference in this comparison is that unlike the Leafs players, Skinner and Faulk are signed to better value contracts. With all that in mind, I’m going to preach patience on our current “core” (except for Rask he has to go) and I want to see what they’d do with a James Neal/James Van Riemsdyk/Max Pacioretty etc. addition before thinking of trading players.
My fear in trading a current key roster piece out for another key piece is that it will simply make a minor improvement but create another hole that will be difficult to plug. I don’t mind seeing multiple draft picks and prospects go for a key addition at this stage.
dmilleravid. I don’t know if you are serious, but that is a trade I would make. Oh boy! Would I ever.
Much is being made of the goalie situation with our beloved Canes. I would like to make a few comments about that. I have known a few men who have tended goal for hockey teams. I have read extensively about various goaltending greats in NHL history.
Goalies are different. They just are. In each case, though, they are the same. When the team in front of them lets them down, they take it personally. If they do not feel as if they are a part of the team, they wither on the vine.
Our beloved Canes are in a crisis right now. They are not a team. Yes, each player wears the uniform, but that is where it stops. I wish I knew why it is the way it is, but I can assure you that it is not Scotty’s or Wardo’s fault.
One more thing, if the trade proposed by dmilleravid were made, Faulk would go back to his old scoring ways, and Rask would fit right in as Turris’ replacement and score like crazy.
Anyway, I would like to offer a challenge to my new friends. See if you can identify the following goalie tandems:
GP W L T/OT SO GAA SV%
1983/84 Season 45 30 10 4 1 3.91 .883
” 38 27 8 1 1 3.77 .882
2005/06 Season 60 38 14 6 3 2.78 .906
” 28 14 8 2 0 3.68 .882
2015/16 Season 34 12 14 6 2 2.81 .901
” 52 23 17 10 1 2.41 .909
2017/18 Season 27 15 7 3 1 2.65 .910
” 30 9 14 6 0 3.06 .892
The first is Grant Fuhr and Andy Moog with Edmonton. They won the Stanley Cup that season.
The second is Martin Gerber and Cam Ward. We won the Cup that year.
The third is Eddie Lack and Cam Ward. We missed the playoffs.
The fourth is Cam Ward and Scott Darling. I don’t think we can single out a goalkeeper as the problem. Our goalie tandem’s record is not much different the year we won the cup vs. now. In 2005/06, we scored 286 goals that year. That’s an average of slightly more than 3 goals per game. We are not even close to that now.
Yes, of course Phaneuf is overpaid, and for a few more years. Some might say Rask and Faulk are overpaid for a few more years, too. We’d get a veteran dman with real grit – something we desperately need – and a young Center with some skill. We’d give up a big part of our core, at least, who we’ve come to view as our core, but you have to give to get.
The bottom line question to me is this: would we be a better team that has a chance of advancing further (over time). I don’t know.
My real point, whether anyone thinks what I’ve proposed is a fair trade or not, is that it’s going to take real risk-taking to improve the team from here, and there’s no guarantee that it will work out.
dmiller finally speaking my language! 🙂 I’d do Faulk, Rask and Skinner — for Hoffman, Phaneuf and Pageau. If we have to, exchange picks of some sort to make it work. That boosts the shake-up and gives us more grit up front and on defense.
I’d do it in a heart-beat…all three, with pick(s) as needed!
Do you suppose we could swap GMs too?
We could really use one who has a pair…IMO!