I had good intentions about writing a Daily Cup of Joe article focused on the recent Carolina Hurricanes ticket promotions and the quick chain of events leading to Tuesday’s effort to fill the lower bowl of PNC Arena. But after consecutive nights at PNC Arena (counting NC State versus UNC on Monday) and preview and recap articles both days, I am gassed and am going to hold off on stepping into the somewhat sensitive subject until tomorrow.
Instead, today’s Daily Cup of Joe offers a quick look at the Hurricanes lineup for Tuesday and more general comments on what Peters is up to right now.
Impact of the home-heavy schedule
Meaningful context for considering the lineup is the fact that the Hurricanes just started a stretch of 11 out of 12 games at home. Whereas the road forces a bias toward balancing a lineup to minimize weaknesses, home hockey offers a greater ability to devise purpose-built lines and mostly dictate favorable match ups and preferred utilization for them. In this regard, I think the greatest upshot is the potential to leave Jaccob Slavin and Brett Pesce together versus needing to separate them at times this season to more evenly balance the defense pairings. Somewhat similarly, I think this also makes it likely that Peters will play best on best most nights with the Aho/Staal combination (likely with Teravainen who found his way back there on Tuesday after Lindholm started in the right wing slot) matching up. In both of the two prior years, Peters has also shown a strong bias toward playing a group of five (Staal’s line plus Slavin/Pesce) in a ‘best available’, match up role at home, though thus far in 2017-18 Peters has been more inclined to mix and match defense pairs with Staal’s line. With the blue line more balanced right now, my hunch is that Peters will continue to mix and match which defense pairing sees ice time with Staal’s line.
Player notes
Lee Stempniak as a complement for Jeff Skinner
Being honest, I viewed him simply as serviceable depth especially coming off a long-term injury. From what I have seen thus far, I think I underestimated his potential to boost the lineup. His four points in six games are a good start even not eye-popping offensive statistics, but more significantly, he is like a Justin Williams light. He is just a pretty good player who does a number of things at least reasonably well and maybe most significantly is just a pain to play against because of how he engages the puck, finds his way into puck battles and just generally competes. Jeff Skinner has not caught fire since Stempniak’s return, but I continue to feel like Skinner’s game has shown signs and just might be ready to bust out again. I thought Skinner/Ryan/Stempniak was the team’s best line on Tuesday despite not scoring, and Skinner has had a couple other games recently when he seemed like he was on the brink.
Elias Lindholm as a (temporary) fourth-liner
On Tuesday when Peters started mixing and matching a bit, Elias Lindholm found himself on the fourth line. Worth noting is that this happened not so much because Lindholm was horrible but rather because other combinations have been pretty good. When Peters returned to some recent successful twosomes in McGinn/Williams and Teravainen with Staal and Aho, the only real place left for Lindholm was the fourth line. That is a great sign when Lindholm who is clearly top 9-capable and is not playing poorly an get pushed to the bottom line.
Noah Hanifin/Trevor van Riemsdyk as a second pairing
I think this duo could be the key to the blue line. Trevor van Riemsdyk actually struggled for the first time all season coming out of the bye week, looking a step slow getting back up to NHL speed, but otherwise he has been a rock for the third pairing. As far as ceiling in a good game, I think Hanifin/van Riemsdyk rates higher than Fleury/Faulk, and Peters has picked his spots to use them accordingly on nights when they were clicking like Tuesday. The keys for this duo to be a solid second pairing especially when the team returns to the road are for van Riemsdyk to prove capable of a similar level of play against higher-end competition and for Hanifin to find a run of consistent hockey that is mostly free of the occasional train wreck days that still seem to pop into Hanifin’s game.
Sebastian Aho as a catalyst
On cue, Sebastian Aho scored a huge goal in his first game back after an injury layoff. No doubt, he needs to produce for the Hurricanes to muster enough offense to win consistently, but I think equally important is for Aho to play at the level above that and be a catalyst for his line mates. After tracking toward a better season in terms of offensive production, Staal is now on pace for only high 40s for points again and has only a single goal and two assists in the six games starting with the game in which Aho was injured. Teravainen is another player who could use a spark sometimes. He had two goals and an assist in the Montreal win before the break and added an assist on Tuesday, but prior to that he hit another slow stretch with an eight-game goal-less streak. It might be a lot to ask from a 20-year old, but the challenge for Aho is to not just score but also boost the production from his entire line like great players do.
Justin Williams and Brock McGinn as Batman and Robin
With all of players who lean raw skill on other lines, the McGinn/Rask/Williams is a bit of a hard hat and lunch pail line. McGinn bangs bodies. Williams is just difficult to play against in all three zones. And Rask is a sound two-way center who rarely makes defensive blunders that cost scoring chances. I especially like Williams and McGinn together. Both hound the puck like crazy which is a great recipe for generating scoring chances for a line that does not have a pure puck distributor for a center or a true playmaker.
What say you Caniacs?
1) What are your thoughts on the current line combinations and defense pairings?
2) Which pairs of two players are your favorite combinations right now?
Go Canes!
Matt. I really like this post and thinking about how players are complementing each other. That being said, I am going to be tough on you.
Just yesterday you mentioned how a trade made sense. Well who goes? Do you break up Batman and Robin, because McGinn is the one that makes the most sense on paper to be moved down to the 4th. Or how about just trading Lindholm since he is “now a 4th liner.” Maybe there is an upgrade for Stempniak. Now I am not opposed to bringing in a player like Pacioretty, especially if the team could get him for say Rask and one of the AHL blue liners and a pick. But I don’t see that. Of course, there are deals closer to the deadline that few thought of, so again I am not totally opposed. But a trade just because that is what is “supposed to happen” if a team is in contention is too reflexive.
My point is that the return of Aho (or the return of Stempniak, however you want look at it) is as good as, maybe better than, any available trades. Sure the Canes aren’t offensive high-flyers. But, as you mention, Skinner will have a hot streak. TSA will have another week or longer of multiple point games from all three. Rask is back to scoring like a middle-6 center. So few of the players that will be available will create a significant uptick.
1) Agree on Williams and McGinn. They have more energy than the opposing lines. Good things will happen for them. Also, Lindholm on the fourth might just be a big plus. With PP and PK time, his overall minutes shouldn’t fall too much. He made a behind-the-net pass last night reminiscent of his hot streak from last March. Stempniak/Ryan/Skinner could be the key to the needed victories the next 10 games. Like you, I find things to like in the lines from last night.
2) I liked Faulk/Fleury last night. Faulk had a goal–except for the excellent play and “right place, right time” move by Phaneuf. I thought Fleury had one of his best all-around games.
The good thing about Pacioretty is that he is a solid all-around player who could play on any kind of line. The other thing is that he is more of a pure goal scorer. To put it in perspective, Pacioretty’s 81 goals since the start of the 2015-16 season are 1 more than Skinner’s 80.
Short-term, he maybe plays with Williams and Rask and bumps McGinn to the fourth line. You get more offense out of McGinn’s slot and then also the 4th line slot the McGinn fills, and you do not give up defense to get it.
Longer-term, I think Pacioretty could be a perfect player to help support an Aho transition to center. Teravainen and Aho already have chemistry and make sense. Pacioretty adds another pure finisher with a bit more size, solid 2-way play and veteran presence.
Agree that Max P provides positive options. I really like him as a winger when Aho moves to C.
The question is who is moved in a trade? I mentioned Rask and Carrick/McKeown. My limited knowledge of Montreal is that they need D help. I would think the original ask would be Hanifin or Slavin. That would be tough for most C&Cers
In my scenario With Rask being traded, the team moves Lindholm to C with Williams and Pacioretty.
Realistically what do you think would swing the deal? Since he is signed through 2019, I cannot imagine prospects would.
I agree Hanifin or Slavin could be their initial ask. No way, not worth it. I guess that is the problem with trades, other teams typically want just as much talent in return unless they are dumping salary.
Im not a fan of Lindholm as a fourth liner. Actually it’s unfair based on his play. On top of that the TSA line was the only consistent threat. Skinner’s line threatened intermittently. Rask line infrequent. We have to generate more offense.
Let McGinn and Nordy be Batman and Robin.
TSA
Skinner-Lindy-Stempniak
Zykov-Rask-Williams
Nordy-Kruger/Ryan-McGinn
Lindholm should be a solid addition to Skinner. He isn’t afraid to get in front of the net. Also hounds the puck like Stempniak. Zykov brings more goals and his lack of 2 way should be negated by Rask and Williams. Let Ryan center the 4th line to add scoring or Kruger if we need the hard nosed shutdown.
Pacioretty would be a great addition, but I just don’t see it happening. Other teams may see we have an attractive array of chips for trade, but in GMRF’s mind many of those chips are NOT for sale. At least not this year. Hence the impasse.
Unless a team is willing to take a flyer on Faulk or Rask (or pay a ransom for Skinner), everyone else on the roster is off the table. I also don’t see our prospects being part of any deal (unless it nets a ransom). So I think the only players we potentially send out are current roster players whose depth chart ranking has dropped the last year or two and may not be part of our 5-7 year plan (insert Faulk, Rask, bottom 6 guys, maybe Skinner if the price is right). That fact likely will not net us a key return this deadline.
That is what I see as well, Faulk, Rask or bottom 6 guys. A surprise could always happen but GMRF has never made big trades. It has been bargain bin, but new owner who is impatient, who knows?
I have read elsewhere that MTL is asking for a top-6 for Pac, under the assumption that he will return to his high-scoring ways under a new roof and they want something like in return.
Frankly, I don’t see that happening – but I don’t see him going for picks and prospects. So I think we should stop drooling over Pacioretty just like we should have done about Duchene and RNH. He is not coming to CAR because we are not going to offer what MTL will want.
In software we call it “vaporware” – he is a “vapor player” when it comes to the Canes.
1. In theory I like most of our combinations in a scoring by committee sense, but it only really runs like it should when the goalie is on point. I’ve been curious about seeing Lindholm as the rough and tumble forward he was at the end of last year in between TT and Aho. He and Aho had some chemistry early in the year. His finish is better than Staal’s and you wouldn’t lose much on faceoffs.
2. As much as defense has been a bit of a liability on breakdowns I can’t help liking the Slavin/Pecse, Hannifin/TVR, Fleury/Faulk parings. Not to mention Dahlbeck stepping up.
My pocket submitted that comment a little early. It’s probably long enough already without going into forwards, but I’d like to clarify that I like our defensive pairings for their age. Hannifin being 21, Fleury being a rookie, mistakes will happen.
We’re a better team than last year despite the standings.