With Tuesday’s win over the Montreal Canadiens, the Carolina Hurricanes woke up on Wednesday in a three-way tie for the last two playoff spots (as measured by games above .500). With only one game remaining in November, the team is scheduled to enter December in at least decent position.
Despite the ups and downs already in 2018-19, that is a positive.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe takes a look at what’s ahead schedule-wise for the team.
The first leg out west
After a home game on Friday against Anaheim, the Hurricanes take a week-long jaunt out west to play Los Angeles, San Jose and Anaheim on the road. After a lackluster first game out west earlier this season, the key is hopping straight into high gear for the winnable first game against a struggling Kings team.
The second leg at home
After the road trip, the Hurricanes play six out of their next seven games at home over a busy two-week stretch leading up to the Christmas break. The stretch features some tough competition in Toronto, Washington, Boston and Pittsburgh (assuming they can put it together). The home-heavy stretch represents arguably the best chance to start the new year in playoff position.
A mixed final leg
After Christmas, the Hurricanes play at Washington and then at New Jersey before a New Year’s Eve tilt at home against Philadelphia.
A friendly next stretch goalie-wise
The next five games are nicely spaced out with no back-to-backs and a couple two-day lay offs to boot. That stretch is favorable to riding the hot hand in Curtis McElhinney. The second half of December features a pair of back-to-backs that could be the next logical point to turn to either Darling or Mrazek.
A road-heavy January
After a decent stretch of home games in December, the Hurricanes play eight out of twelve games on the road in January. That makes December even more critical.
What say you Canes fans?
1) How critical do you think the run of home hockey in mid-December is to the fate of the 2018-19 season?
2) For the 13 games in December, what would be your target record? Do you think the team will achieve that?
3) With the nice spacing for the next few weeks, do you think Brind’Amour will ride McElhinney to the next back-to-back set on December 13 and 14?
Go Canes!
1. We are playing generally quality teams at home in December. Given that we failed to put in the bank achievable wins against quality teams on the road earlier in this season this is a very critical stretch of game coming up. And December is followed by a January in which we only have 4 home games, so the pendulum swings the other way. We need to put ourselves in a good position this month.
2. I own’t guess or target a record, but I ideally we piece together something of a winning streak instead of win a couple then lose one.
3. There is no reason Mac shouldn’t be in the net for every game until the next back-to-back except getting Mrazek some ice time. There is value in that because Mrazek hasn’t played in such a long time.
Very tough stretch of games – ANA has started to play better and SJO has too. This isn’t a make-or-break stretch but we cannot afford a big losing streak. We are starting to see the cream rise and the early-season surprises fade a bit and it’s becoming more clear who are real competition is in the Metro. Getting through this stretch in a position similar to where we are now would be just fine with me.
I want to see competitive games and if that means exclusively riding the hot hand in goal at the expense of Mrazek and Darling getting work, so be it.
Standings Watch after 24 games: 2018-17 vs. 2017-18 vs. 2016-17
2018-19: 27 pts (56.3%) In last wildcard slot, 4th in Metro, 4 pts from 1st, 5 pts from last.
2017-18: 25 pts (52.1%) 5 pts from wildcard, 7th in Metro, 10 pts from 1st, 2 pts from last.
2016-17: 23 pts (47.9%) 6 pts from wildcard, 7th in Metro, 12 pts from 1st, 1 pt from last.
While clearly better than the last 2 seasons and actually IN the hunt for a change 56.3% of points available would yield 92 points and result in the team unlikely to be in the playoffs. For comparison 59.1% would yield 97 points and a very high likelihood of post season play. To reach 97 points the Canes need 70 points in the next 58 games (60.3%). In the last 10 games the Canes are 6-3-1, a 65% pace. (Statistical Note: 3 wins for each 2 loses going forward is the ticket for soup.)
Love the statistical reality checks you provide. Message to me is that going 2-1 is a very good thing. If the Canes can avoid the losing streaks, winning 5 or more in a row isn’t necessary. I need to remember that after the next turd they throw in, because every NHL team does have some crappy games.
Don Waddell just confirmed the rumor that Scott Darling will be place on waivers today.
Darling & Zykov placed on waivers.