First, to be clear, I am on board with the general direction of the team. The transition to youth will pay off even if it not immediately. And more significantly, I think the sheer volume of changeover including at least a few from the top half was necessary even if somewhat painful in terms of trying to get a reset on attitude.
So my aim is not to say that all is bad or that the team is headed in the wrong direction.
But that said, if I assess the summer, there are a handful of significant decisions that I would second guess.
1) The goaltending
The goaltending for 2018-19 is a dice role at best. Taking two goalies who ranked nowhere near league average in 2017-18 and hoping for significantly better could work. The position in general is fickle, and it is not at all uncommon for bad goalies to rebound and good goalies to swoon. But that said, if your starting point is two goalies who rate outside the top 30 in the league the previous year, you are playing long odds with your dice roll.
With three more years committed to Scott Darling at $4.15 million salary cap hit, there was no easy solution to the predicament, but I would have done more/tried harder to improve at the position. The current scenario is eerily reminiscent of the summer of 2016 when the Hurricanes exited the season with goaltending that was nowhere near good enough but decided to give it another try. Not surprisingly, goaltending was not good enough again the following season with the same players back.
Again, there was no magic elixir for this difficult situation, but I would have either thrown a bit more money and/or trade assets at the second slot that Mrazek occupies or I would have thrown money at buying out Scott Darling to free up another slot.
But the Hurricanes won the lottery balls in the spring, so just maybe the team wins the dice role at the goalie position for 2018-19 to build a positive new trend.
2) The coaching staff
I am on board with Rod Brind’Amour as the head coach. There is risk there, but I like the idea of following Peters with a coach whose strength should theoretically be motivating and getting the most out of players. But whereas the team did shake things up in terms of the roster, the same is not really true of the coaching staff. The team did add Dean Chynoweth from outside the organization, but with Brind’Amour in his first season as a head coach at any level, I would have preferred to have at least one coaching slot allocated to a gray beard of sorts with some head coaching experience at the NHL level. I voted for the same last summer, and think Bill Peters would have benefited from some help from an assistant who had been through the ups and downs of a long NHL season in the head coaching role.
But again, I think the single greatest thing the team needs to do is find the jolt that changes the culture and attitude, and Brind’Amour could be exactly the right coach to accomplish that.
3) One more veteran scorer
Though I was not happy with the return, I was okay with trading Jeff Skinner. I will not reshash the why here again. But I do think the team is a bit short on offensive fire power. Maybe more significantly, I think Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen will need a high-end third line mate to push much higher than they did in 2017-18. While I fully acknowledge that a player like Valentin Zykov or Andrei Svechnikov could become exactly that, I would have preferred that the team add one more proven scorer to round out that scoring line. Part of the need is scoring ability, but the other part that might be harder for someone like Zykov or Svechnikov in their rookie seasons is the every-game consistency to match up against the NHL’s elite shift in and shift out without lulls.
While the first two items are likely finalized for the start of the 2018-19 season, this one is still open. The possibility of Justin Faulk being traded for forward help is still out there.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Do you agree or disagree with the three things that I am second guessing this offseason?
2) Is there anything else that you would second guess from this offseason?
3) On a more positive note, what is the single move that you like the best from this offseason considering the volume of player, coaching and management changes?
Go Canes!
Gotta agree with you, my feelings too!
The new owner said there would be changes at the end of the season. With the volume of change in Raleigh it is reasonable to second guess some of the changes that were made. Goaltending, coaching and lack of scoring help are some of the most obvious areas to wonder if things could have been handled differently.
Goaltending, unless you develop a true number one, is a spin of the roulette wheel. RBA could be really good or fail miserably. Another scoring forward is something 31 nhl teams would like to have. Sports are funny that way. Chances of success and failure are part of the excitement.
Fans who second guess the Canes moves this summer certainly have reasons to do so. A new owner, front office and unceremoniously removing long time members of the organization have left some hurt feelings. Yet when the puck drops in early October it is new chance for the team to return to relevance.
One thing I will not second guess is the shake up of the organization. Gone are the days of adding a 4th line forward or 3rd pairing d and calling it an offseason. The team needed an overhaul in attitude and accountability if nothing else. The team is the youngest in the league with the its best players 25 or younger. I would rather see the kids try and fail than see a team of mostly average veterans sputter along. If you look at 2018-19 it may seem a bit daunting but if you look at 20-21 it gets really exciting for the team.
well said. I couldn’t agree more.
Well said, with one caveat…
The reason the Canes GM is Don Waddell the head coach is Rod Brind’Amour and the assistants are Jeff Daniels and Dean Chynoweth is that Tom Dundon is paying far under league average for his staff. Sometimes you still can get a great coach/GM/etc. at low pay, but you are also going to get some stinkers. It is a reason for long term concern of Canes management. The reality may just be that Tom Dundon is pretty much running everything anyway, so why pay?
You may be right about Waddell and RBA. I think Dundon chose both based on being comfortable with them as individuals and hockey people. So far Waddell has gotten Hamilton, Fox and Ferland in trades, drafted a franchise player, and signed deHaan. He traded Kruger for some value in return, instead of buying him out. He got TVR signed for a reasonable deal. He didn’t get enough for Skinner, in my opinion, but there were some off the ice dynamics there. I think he has done a fairly good job. Whatever his salary is this year, I think he earned it. We will see how RBA does once the season starts.
I am also firmly in the Brind’Amour camp. Best hire he could have made, IMO. The others? I’m not so sure. Time will tell if his policy of not paying for coaching, management, staff, etc. pays off. I do remember Dundon saying he wants to put his money on the ice. Hope it works.
1) agree, with one caveat. On goaltending, we didn’t do exactly the same thing and hope for a different outcome, that is crazy. Clearly, Darling was given conditions of employment, where he had to stay here for the summer and work with Bill Birniston. There is reason to believe his season will be better, but we don’t know how much better.
Similarly, Mr Magic has a fresh start and a 1 yr, contract, there is great incentive for him to impress. Will it work? I give it a 50-60% chance that at least one of them has a good year.
2) obtaining a top 6 center would have been nice, but I also like the youth movement. As long as RBA let’s them play the kids will come along.
3) I really like bringing in Hamilton and Fox (this was deliberate not luck), and the bad trade not made. Patience with Faulk is the right strategy.
1) All three are legitimate concerns.
The team moved last season to address the goaltending. In hindsight it is easy to say it wasn’t enough change. But most of us were close to euphoric one year ago. As late as November we liked the move.
This was Matt’s take:
“With respect to taking on that new challenge, I have been impressed with Darling’s steadiness. He seems mostly unfazed by the new challenge and just focused on winning the next game or even just saving the next puck. I think that demeanor and composure is critical for starting goalies who will inevitably see highs and lows over the course of a long season but need to just keep playing the next puck. My impression of Scott Darling through 16 games is that he has the right mentality to handle the rigors of being a starter and that while he will have his physical/results ups and downs like any other goalie that he will not be overly prone to the more challenging types of slumps whereby a goalie hits a rough patch, and it then snowballs because of the pressure that comes with it.”
This is what I wrote: “Darling has not given any games away–except maybe the first Dallas game, though at the end that even looked like the Canes might get to OT. As mentioned, he is in the middle of the pack and trending up for goalie statistics. I would think he ends the year around .918 sv% and 2.40 GAA. That is also just about where I think the team (and thus Ward) will end the year. Much better than years past.”
You know how it ended. My point is that last year there was just as much change as this season–various different pundits and analysis indicated that the Canes improved more than any team last offseason. So my second guessing is based on my own false beliefs from this time last year.
2) Quite a few, but not worth mentioning today.
3) Re-signing TVR. He is a solid player and having him will give the young RHDs time to development.
In the category “Possible signs things are changing” a recent article https://mynhltraderumors.com/the-columbus-blue-jackets-stand-to-lose-big-as-star-russians-eye-free-agency/2018/08/26/ discussed the possibility that Panarin and Bobrovsky may be gone from Columbus after next season. The Canes were mentioned as a possible destination for both, citing Dundon’s aggressiveness and Waddell’s cap space as positives. Rome wasn’t built in a day, and rebuilds take time. But others, outside of Raleigh may be beginning to see the change in the approach to our rebuild here. That may be the most encouraging development of the summer.
I’ve heard similar things. Wondering why? Columbus is a growing city. It’s a nice, clean place. Good fan support. I’ve been there and the facilities are nice. Why do these guys want out? I have a thought….Torts. I love John Tortorella, but he seems to have a short shelf date with players. Could be a power move by Panarin and Bob. Owner and GM may not take well to being told what to do by the employees. It will be interesting to see how this turns out.
This is no offence to anybody from there.. But I worked in Ohio a lot… Ohio is a pretty low on the desirable place to be and live. Panarin has stated he wants to be near the coast or water… a big indicator that he hates the boring city of Clb.
Ive been to the Jackets Arena and played hockey around the area a lot… Its a really nice Arena and actually one of my favorites. The location is a little strange but they have improved the area a bunch in the last 15 years… Local hockey is ok.
The Columbus area and pretty much all of Ohio is near if not the top of my least favorite places I have been. I have lived and worked in most states…
I’m from Ohio and I don’t take offense. Columbus is way better than the other cities in Ohio, and I’m from one of those! It’s also way better than dumps like Detroit and Buffalo. Better situation than Jersey or the Islanders as well. Frankly, it’s similar to Raleigh. And honestly, what the hell does it matter where you play? It’s not like you have time to go to the beach during the season. I think that may be a smokescreen.
My views on the moves have been expressed a few times here *grin* i.e. I am not a fan of the off season moves or the approach of the new owner/management.
That being said, I agree with Matt, except I think the Skinner trade, given the return, was nothing short of pitiful.
But the best move of the summer was luck in the draft lottery. And, after multiple seasons of bringing in veterans for what appears to be a retirement home where they can relax and enjoy Carolina style BBQ I like the youth movement and going all in for a new direction.
it is time to put the kids on the ice, let them play and hope for the best. It could be an exciting season.
Breezy. Agree on all points. The youngsters are going to be fun.
Two additional points:
I give the scouting staff high marks for signing Maenalanen and Fora. Neither may ever make the NHL, but both are good signings with upside.
This is not really a “hockey” point, but I am curious as to why there are still cheerleaders. I can’t imagine they produce positive income. If other moves are based on employees “paying for themselves,” I don’t see why nothing has happened on this front.
The Storm Squad are emissaries for the team – they are present at all of the promotional events around the Triangle and they do a great job at that. Promotional events would not be nearly as fun if they were staffed by peoples in suits and interns. They are being transitioned to more of a dance team at the games, I have been told. That’s entertainment -although I think it is a little cheesy.
I would feel a lot more comfortable about the Storm Squad if they would put a little more clothes on them. It’s the era of “me too.” Those outfits scream Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders wanna be.
Matt, you have hit the right points. Goaltending. There wasn’t much out there this off season to go get and not still have the same doubts and questions. The answer here is for the two we have to get better or we develop a better one. There was no and is no other easy way out. TD spending more money would not have gotten us anything better.
Brindamoor: Yeah he’s inexperienced. That’s his downside right now. But who was out there available when we were hiring that was better or didn’t have warts that us fans wouldn’t be pondering over? For example, Tibbetts. If we had hired him what would we be saying now? The half full fans would be saying he has experience winning. The half empty fans would be saying look at his overall losing record. Personally, I believe Rob was the best available no matter what he did or didn’t cost us to hire.
Front Office: How do we grade the front office performance? Is it going to be by their results or is it going to be by the salary we paid them? As far as results go in the interim the hires look awful good to me based upon the results so far and I really don’t care what Dundon is paying them.
Fans: Playing the season is the only thing that will determine what moves turned out good or bad. If the season is a bust will the fans reflect on the real reasons we failed or will they go back and say we should have done this or that (their current arguments) before the season and that is why we failed. The current doubters are actually doing this appraisal right now and so at the end of the season they will just repeat their current subjective arguments or say TD should have paid more money. They will say it was because we shouldn’t have hired Rod because he was inexperienced and should have hired “someone” else and we didn’t because TD wouldn’t pay “someone” enough money. For the goaltending they will say we should have signed “someone” else and we didn’t because TD wouldn’t pay “someone” enough money. As with all of the problems, they will say Tom Dundon (Waddell)should have hired “someone” else and/or have thrown more dollars into the efforts. This is the answer I always hear. Their answer is rarely specific or realistic IMO. It’s always some subjective opinion based upon TD throwing more dollars into the fire to solve everything.
In summary, considering who was available either in coaching prospects and/or player management has done a pretty good job without THROWING AWAY large sums of money to pay “someone” else. Just as with the signing of Darling last year that I (me, the current writer) thought was a great move and was wrong, things this year can turn out the same way (bad). If they do, IMO it will be because what moves we did make this off season just were not enough. They may have been all that we could have realistically accomplished (i.e. we did a good job), but it was just not enough. For example, as was the case with Darling, the move to get him was not “bad”, it was Darlings performance that was “bad.”
Has management done a good job this off season to improve this team? IMO to date “yes.” Is there more that could be done? IMO unless Waddell can pry a Smaltz or Nugent-Hopkins away for one of our defensemen (I’m not picky about which one), the answer is “no” as far as I can tell. So, I’M JUST READY TO SEE AND ENJOY CANES HOCKEY. I’ve got my rose colored glasses and my half full glass of champagne and I see nothing but success so far.
I agree with the second guessing about the coaching staff but am not very concerned about it. I just hope everybody on the staff will support the young players through their ups and downs.
While I think the Canes would be stronger out of the gate with a veteran scoring winger, I wonder if that would delay the makeover at forward that I think the team needs. Adding a good veteran scorer for multiple years would have made sense, but a short-term deal wouldn’t have. Was there any possibility other than a short-term fix?
In the context of the big team shakeup over the summer, I think the biggest positive move was committing to Svechnikov, Necas and Zykov as NHL players this season. That commitment may or may not pay immediate dividends. Either way, it is a huge change for the better over Peters’ declaration after the 16-17 season that no one in Charlotte could help the Canes, leading to Kruger and Juris and a season of stagnation in 17-18. The Canes have said “no” to stagnation for 18-19. By the 2019 draft, the Canes will know where they stand, which players to re-sign and which to replace.
I doubt the Canes had better options than Mrazek in goal. That’s assuming the Caps wouldn’t trade Grubauer here.
This summer’s decisions look different if the first priority is making the playoffs this year vs. building a team that can contend for years. I prioritize building a perennial contender. Making the playoffs this year would be a bonus.
I forget where, but I read that the Caps came out and said they weren’t going to trade Grubaur anywhere inside the Metro…
CT ,while I am not a big advocate for “cheerleaders”, I think they have a definite purpose for sports teams in general, and “The Canes” in particular. Many fans of hockey are also big fans of the other sports (particularly here in the TRIANGLE). They (cheerleaders) help other sports “Fanatics” become HOCKEY FANS, and also do other PR work in the community…”Ambassadors for the Canes, and local hockey”!!!
I think the one big change that everything has to be measured by – even these detailed points, Matt – is the change in culture. A near 45% roster turnover, and the turnout of a number of players who were rumored as being issues or not totally “in” to quote Staal from last season. This is not all that different from the wholesale roster changes Cuban made in his first year owning the Mavs.
So in that sense I think has been very successful and I think that effort will more than compensate (I hope?) for other question marks.
As you say, the forward situation may resolve as part of a Faulk trade. I am concerned about RBA’s coaching skills (not his motivational or training skills). But I really think the goaltending is going to resolve – if Darling’s issues last year were the result of poor conditioning and a breakdown in confidence he has reversed both – and the team has done it’s job in professing confidence in him by making him one of the visible faces of the franchise this summer. He is lean and mean – and he has a big smile that was lacking last summer.
So short-term, I am fine with this summer – the immediate culture change.
Longer-term I am not so sure. A team’s long-term success depends on the team being a preferred destination for players. Look at Golden State – success breeds success breeds players wanting to be there (GS used to be a place for players to stay away from). And GSW coaching, management and ownership is all about the players. I don’t think Dundon or the overall O/M team has demonstrated this – in fact I think a lot of their actions are suspect. TD could be a true player-friendly owner – the way Cuban is and the way GSW is – but penny pinching on some contracts, showing other personnel the way out in a non-gracious way puts questions in the minds of people. Time will tell. But sustainable success comes from players wanting to be there – the way players being well-paid but seeming to be willing to take less than market to be in TOR right now.
To be the best you have to employ the best. If you don’t pay a competitive market rate you won’t employ the best.
You could get lucky, catch lightning in a bottle or get hometown discounts on people who care more about other intangibles, but it won’t make you a longterm winner.
Currently the Canes have the chepest team on the ice and it is rumored that the coaching staff is paid a lot less than the market average. Star playrrs demanding a raise have been traded away and other key players of the future (Aho and TT) have not been resigned.
If the team startss committing longterm to its stars (deal for Aho, TT) I will happily shut up about TD being cheap, but not until then.
If we view the management moves in the offseason as getting the team into the playoffs next year I steadfastly claim they were insufficient and that more could have been done. Of course we can always say management tried and was not able to get more. We don’t know the parameters.
But there were free agents available,e.g. James Neal, we could have offer sheeted Stone from Ott, we could have made a max salary one year pitch offer to Tavares, there’s things that could have been done with money here. The team is flirting with the salary floor.
More realistically I think the team could have hired David or Lindy Ruff (I think he’s out of a job) or that type of coach with a lot of NHL experience as an assistant coach/special advisor. I think it would’ve been good use and I am convinced enough money would get it done (and not a terribly high amount at that).
But if the plan is to take the team in a completely new and young direction, the moves were satisfactory.
I was in the former camp. I’m damn tired of mediocre team with more excuses than gols and I want to see a playoff game in Raleigh, but I can accept the reality of the management decision and enjoy the team that could become great and not be skewed by unrealistic shortterm expectations (this squad is not going to make the playoffs this year, but it will be fun to watch and could start seriously challenging in a year or two if the young guns work out and important playeres are resigned).
I don’t have rose colored glasses on, but I have 3 pitchers of local brew and a dozen wings at the ready, and am ready to enjoy the season regardless.
Breezy, I agree you have to pay market rates for talent, but I’m not sure we’ve seen evidence that Dundon is unwilling to do that. He traded Lindholm and Hanifin, but both had failed to meet expectations and Hamilton’s and Ferland’s contracts came back. Then he signed de Haan. He also resigned vans Riemsdyk. The Canes’ defense is expensive, not cheap. Time will tell, but I’d rather have Hamilton than Hanifin and I’d rather count on de Haan in the top 4 than gamble on Fleury and McKeown at this point. I’m hoping Hamilton and de Haan will stabilize the defense and suddenly the goalies will look better, maybe justifying the money the Canes are paying Darling.
Aho’s contract will be the test of Dundon’s willingness to pay to keep a talented player who has performed well. That’s assuming something we don’t know for sure- that Carolina is where Aho wants to be.
You are right, ultimately the tell will be Aho (and Turbo) – I really think both Hanifin and Lindy were asking for too much. But he could have been a little freer with Zykov – he is actually taking a pay-cut this season, and the difference is a mere several hundred thousand; that would have been a great way to show appreciation for minimal cost. I also think TvR came in lower than he should. A couple of hundred thousand is nickel-and-dimes to the team (and cap) but a huge for the players.
I didn’t realize he had lowballed Zykoff. I don’t like that.
No one low balled Zykov. He got a guaranteed one way deal. Zykov signed it knowing it was better getting over one million guaranteed for two seasons than the possibility of getting AHL money.
Thanks for clarifying.
Yes, Zykov got a great deal for a guy totally unproven at the NHL level.
We view that differently, jm and lts.
I think you may be looking at his rookie deal and thinking he got all that money. He got the signing bonus and then was paid $70K/year while in the minors. That’s how I understand a two-way deal works. He is now guaranteed $1.35M over the next two year. Pretty big increase over $70k
Bold prediction-Aho signs a new deal once he returns to Raleigh. He mentioned progress in a recent discussion as reported on nhl.com. I am going to hold everyone to their statements that Dundon is not cheap if the team signs Aho long term. ?
I will agree that Dundon has not gone cheap on individual players. I like that. Dundon most certainly has gone cheap on GM, coaches and the staff. I don’t like that.
Matt, I agree 100% with your 3 main second-guessing things.
Let’s hope an in-shape Darling without the Cam Ward shadow leads us to the promised land. I’m still not over him coming to camp last year in questionable condition but I am rooting for him to rise up and make amends to the team and fans that he let down.
Regarding coaching, I’m not sure losing Steve Smith was part of the plan. Time will tell what effect that has, but I must admit that I am concerned about a negative impact. I believe Faulk was shopped for a veteran scoring forward but no satisfactory deal was available, so the decision was made to hold on to him until his value increases; I can’t fault management for that. It seems awkward that he is still officially Captain yet will likely be 3rd pairing. This is really a strange situation and how it unfolds will be telling. Seems like unfinished business to me but I hope it resolves itself in a positive way. The professional odds makers don’t feel like we moved the needle this off-season based on their predictions, but I guess Vegas was also a long-shot last year. I most like the fact that we have added some toughness to our team.
I agree those are all big question marks, but I take it as a positive sign that Darling seems in a healthier mindset. Sounded like last year he was in a pretty depressed place and it was reflected in his performance.
Most of the moves make this team better on paper and we’re still waiting to see what comes back for Faulk. I can’t see us moving into next season with seven NHL experienced D.