With two consecutive wins and some help with other teams’ losses, the Carolina Hurricanes have pushed back up into playoff position in the middle of the pack of Metropolitan Division teams.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe takes a shot at handicapping the current situation.
The Atlantic Division
As has been the case for awhile now, it looks like only the three required teams will make the playoffs from the Atlantic Division. The Florida Panthers and Detroit Red Wings are hanging around .500 and therefore still in range at 4-5 points back, but at this point in the season that gap would require a big winning streak to move up the ladder. For now, I am considering the Eastern Conference wild card race to be a Metropolitan Division event.
The Metropolitan Division
In a class of their own (Capitals)
Last time I checked in on the playoff standings, I considered the Washington Capitals to be in. As the top team in the division and with a sizable lead, the Caps are still in and not a concern for the Hurricanes.
Trying to join the Capitals (Penguins, Flyers, Devils)
Below the Capitals are three teams that currently sit a notch above the collection of teams competing for the last wild card slot. Measured in games above .500, the Pittsburgh Penguins are +9, the Philadelphia Flyers are +9 and the New Jersey Devils are +7.
The group is not equal though. I view the Penguins as a team that figured it out and is starting to pull away from the pack. The Pens’ 7-2-1 record in their last 10 games supports this assertion. The Flyers are also making a push to join the Capitals with a 6-3-1 record in their last 10 games. But the upstart Devils are a different story. They are still up a few points on the pack but are struggling a bit with a 3-7 record in their last 10 games. The Hurricanes play the Devils twice this week, so they have a role to play in trying to pull them back into the pack.
The pack battling for the final (possibly two) playoff spots (Hurricanes, Blue Jackets, Islanders, Rangers)
Below the second tier is the remainder of the Metropolitan Division and a collection of teams that have had their share of ups and downs recently.
In terms of points, the Hurricanes currently sit in the final playoff spot, but if one adjusts for games played, the Hurricanes are more or less tied with the Blue Jackets who are down one point but with a game in hand. Also still in the mix are the Islanders and Rangers. The group in total is trying to find a higher gear right now. The Hurricanes 5-4-1 record in their past 10 games does not stand out as overly impressive, but that mark is actually tops among the final four teams in the Metropolitan Division. The Blue Jackets have faded at 3-6-1 as have the Rangers at 3-7-0, and the Islanders have only managed to tread water at 4-4-2.
Netting it out
Sticking with my comments from before the season even started, I see the Penguins and Capitals as playoff teams. The Flyers are making a run to join them right now.
But I see the Devils as a team that is vulnerable and with the potential to join the pack and in the process put both wild card slots up for grabs.
At the end of the day, I think the last one or two playoff teams will be the team(s) that get hot and can do more than push along at .500 or slightly better.
Short-term, it would be great to beat the Devils twice this week and ultimately pull them back into the pack.
My 2 cents from a Canes perspective
I think the Capitals, Penguins and Flyers could all potentially pull away. That leaves the Hurricanes battling to win one of the two wild card slots. My best guess is that neither the Rangers or Islanders will be a factor in the. The Rangers will seemingly be trade deadline sellers which does not suggest a playoff chase. I just do not see the Islanders as good enough defensively to win in crunch time as things tighten up a bit. I keep hoping the young Devils team ultimately fades, but at a more basic level, I think the Hurricanes will be in a dog fight with the Blue Jackets and Devils with only two of the three teams making the playoffs.
What say you Canes fans?
The Monday Coffee Shop will likely have some Metropolitan Division handicapping too, but until then…
1) Which teams, if any, in the Metropolitan Division are certain (or close) to make the playoffs?
2) Which teams do you see fading during crunch time?
Go Canes!
1) Washington, Pittsburgh
2) Rangers, Devils
Interesting stat – For the last two months (Dec. 4), the canes have the third best record in the metro.
Flyers 19-8-2
Caps 17-6-5
Canes 15-12-4
Pitt.16-12-1
Rangers 13-14-3
Devils 12-12-4
Islanders 12-15-4
Blue Jackets 11-14-3
I think Washington is the only for sure to make the playoffs. Pitt seems like it is right there but a bad stretch by them will bring them back too. The conference is such a gauntlet, one bad 10 game stretch takes you from second to fifth.
2) Rangers and Islanders. The Devils if they lose both games to the Canes this week. The Canes may fade if they go the rest of the February struggling and especially the 4 straight metro games.
1. Washington and Pittsburgh.
2. Devils and Jackets. Rangers and Islanders are close to done.
2a. We need to cheer for Philly and the Islanders Tuesday. If they win and we win, we move into the WC1 slot.
1/ WAS is in. PIT is not a lock yet but is almost assuredly in. I also agree the PHI is probably in, but maybe as a WC team.
2/ NYR are sellers and are out barring a March miracle – Matt, this was the year they finally cracked; you were just a little early predicting it. I think the youth and inexperience is catching up to NJD and our two games against them this week will be telling for both teams. NYI just can’t keep pucks out of their own net and outscoring opponents generally stops working this time of year.
After WAS, I think any of PIT, PHI, CBJ, or CAR could end up in any order.
And when this team could use the help MOST…RF…IS MR. INACTION!
ugh…
some mgr…!
asleep at the wheel, as usual…
Credit where credit is due. At least you are consistent.
Along with puckgod’s sentiments, I would have liked to have seen a move been made by now. Nothing to take away from our wins during this home stand, but the majority were against teams below us and/or against teams we were expected to beat. Adding ammo to the group before this key stretch of games against tougher competition may make a difference in the end.
Obviously GMRF knows best and is not going to make a deal that will hinder our success in future years. But adding a proven (not AHL guy) heading into this key stretch could have been a confidence booster.
1. Caps and Pens
2. NYR, NYI, Philly
Its really hard to guess… I keep expecting the Devils to drop off but that still hasn’t happened.
Goaltending plays a big role in strong runs and also bad stretches.
NYR – OUT – Hank – it might be over but what a career! Fire sale incoming. Out
NYI – OUT – Greiss – Not the answer and doesn’t have the D to support.
Philly – Bubble – Elliot – is capable of a great run. I wouldn’t expect anything but average. I would suspect that they are in worse shape then NJD and CBJ and be the one team that could stand in the Canes way. I could be way wrong… but that’s how it feels right now.
NJD – Bubble – Schneider – Can carry a team.
CBJ – Bubble – Bob – Can be the best in the league so yeah, they can go on a run.
Either way I think we are right where we hoped to be before the season started. I wouldn’t be shocked if we ended up 3rd in the metro, but at the same time I wouldn’t be shocked if we dropped out of the race.
For everyone clamoring for an immediate shake up Trade and calling for people to loose jobs… I think that RF has been patient and methodical. This team isn’t built like a JR team. Its going to be constructed to compete for the next 10 plus years and we are on year 0… I think we are 1-3 years from being a legit contender and no quick fix or patch will make a difference. Yes we have waited for awhile… but I think ownership played a big role in that and you can squarely blame PK on that.
I was in Chicago in the early 2000’s (02-04) They were going through an ownership thing as well and the team had a hard time making the playoffs… 1 playoff appearance in a ten year stretch. And that’s an Original 6 team in one of the largest markets. Attendance was terrible and the then owner blacked out games on top of that. You couldn’t find any game on in that city. I only state that because every franchise that deals with ownership issues goes through a similar trend. Our team is still here. Yes its been a dark time. I think we are now through that and look forward to the next 10 years as a Canes fan.