Yesterday’s Daily Cup of Joe took an early try at tallying up goal totals for the 2018-19 Carolina Hurricanes by adding up individual player totals. The article included a base number from me and then quick reader surveys with “Sounds right”, “Higher” and “Lower” as options. I put 2018 draftee Andrei Svechnikov at an even 20 goals, but as a talented 18-year old making a big jump from Canadian juniors straight to the NHL, the range of possibilities is wide.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe makes an attempt assess that range and set reasonable expectations for Andrei Svechnikov for the 2018-19 season.
Is he guaranteed an NHL roster spot?
Guaranteed is a strong word, probably too strong, and after rushing Elias Lindholm a few years back with bad results, my hope is that the team will be careful with this situation. For me, that means making an honest assessment in training camp about whether Svechnikov is ready to at least learn at the NHL level.
That said, all indications are that he will prove ready for the NHL. A couple checks with scouts/writers who watched him regularly in Barrie last season say so as does most everything else one can find to read on Svechnikov.
Further complicating matters is the fact that because he is a Canadian junior draftee, Svechnikov must either play at the NHL level or be returned to his junior team. The AHL is not an option. That makes 2018-19 a decision between the NHL and the OHL. Best guess is that even if he is not lights out at the NHL level that his development will be better served by NHL ice time.
What is recent history with current year draftees jumping straight to the NHL?
Recent history offers a variety of comparables of current year draftees who jumped immediately to the NHL
2017: Nico Hischier who was the #1 overall pick in the 2017 NHL Draft by the New Jersey Devils made the immediate jump as did Nolan Patrick who was the #2 overall pick in 2017 by the Philadelphia Flyers. Neither played his way into the Connor McDavid or Auston Matthews tier, but both looked capable at the NHL level for the 2017-18 season. Hischier reached 20 goals and had 52 points. Nolan Patrick had a more modest 13 goals and 30 points in 73 games. Most seem to think that Svechnikov is a better player than either Hischier or Patrick.
2016: The 2016 draft saw Auston Matthews and Patrick Laine go first and second overall. The duo scored 40 and 36 goals respectively and represent the dreamiest of ceilings for Andrei Svechnikov in 2018-19. Jesse Puljujarvi who was selected fourth overall, also logged NHL ice time but posted a meager one goal and seven assists in 28 games before being demoted. Matthew Tkachuk, who was selected sixth overall, also had a strong rookie campaign with 13 goals and 48 points.
2015: Also from the category of proving that incredibly high results are possible, the special 2015 draft class put three forwards immediately into the NHL all with strong results. Connor McDavid instantly established himself as an NHL star. Jack Eichel, who went second overall, put up 24 goals and 56 points, and Mitch Marner, who went third overall, had 19 goals and 61 points.
So when one looks over the past three drafts, each of the top two draft picks have jumped to straight to the NHL level. Of those six players, five of six have surpassed the 50-point level. In addition two of three other draftees who made the immediate jump had strong rookie seasons.
Who is the best comparable?
If I had to pick one player from the list to compare Svechnikov, I think it would be Laine. To be clear, I am NOT saying that Svechnikov is destined to push close to 40 goals in his rookie season. But I do think the two are similar in the sense that both are players whose skill set leans finishing. If put in a positive situation like Laine was (i.e. with Aho and Teravainen), could Svechnikov tear up the NHL as an 18 year old? I think the talent is there to at least make it a possibility.
What is reasonable?
When one considers Svechnikov’s ability per scouting and then also considers recent draftees who have made the immediate jump, I think something like low 20s for goals and low 50s for points is a reasonable estimate. Six of eight previous players cleared the 50-point level, and Svechnikov seems to rate as highly these players.
But is massive upside out of the question?
Despite putting forward a much lower total for the ‘likely’ scenario, I do think a huge season is possible. As a skilled finisher, Svechnikov could mesh well with Aho and Teravainen. That duo has the potential to put the puck on Svechnikov’s stick with a chance to score on a regular basis. At that point, it might just be a matter of how quickly Svechnikov makes the transition?
What say you Canes fans?
1) Of the other recently drafted forwards who are mentioned above, which do you see as the best comparable for Sechnikov?
2) What are the odds that Svechnikov has a huge rookie season like McDavid, Laine and/or Matthews?
3) What do you project for goals and total points for Andrei Svechnikov for the 2018-19 season?
Go Canes!
1) Of the other recently drafted forwards who are mentioned above, which do you see as the best comparable for Sechnikov?
A cross between Hischier and Tkachuk.
2) What are the odds that Svechnikov has a huge rookie season like McDavid, Laine and/or Matthews?
Fairly low. He isn’t on the pure level as a finisher as Laine is and well McDavid was a legit superstar as an 18 year old. I think that’s a lot of pressure for a kid to be expected to produce at the 30+ level.
3) What do you project for goals and total points for Andrei Svechnikov for the 2018-19 season?
I think 20G and 50 points is my guess. I think year 2-3 he will make his biggest step.
His game and style has been compared to Hossa and I think that is fairly accurate from what I have watched. He looks like a man among boys in junior. I think he will be successful early but also there will be a transition period playing with bigger faster competition. I don’t think he will look out of place at all… Scech is ready.
I concur with much of this comment. Especially the Marian Hossa comparison – and I do think Svech is ready but he will need some time to reach his full potential.
1) I think as far as potential and scoring ability, the best comparable is a player not listed above–Taylor Hall. Hall was the last non-center who was the first forward drafted. In his rookie season, Hall put up 22g/42p in 65 games.
2) You make a good point that if Svechnikov is lined up with Aho and Teravainen, he is likely to be more productive. I definitely think Svech should be on the first power play unit with Aho and TT. Hall had 8 power play goals his rookie season. Laine had 9. I think Svech will net 8-10 power play goals on the first unit.
3) Given the power play goals, I think Svechnikov’s 82 game totals are very close to what Hall would have totaled: 27 goals/52 points.
I haven’t watched him play extensively, so I have no idea to whom Svechnikov would compare.
A lot of this depends upon Svechnikov and his ability to handle a full NHL season. Seems like he has the skating and skill set to jump right in, but will he stay there? Sounded like he definitely wasn’t in NHL shape at the rookie camp. He has some time to work on that, but he needs to be ready for an 82 game season. He hasn’t held up to well at the junior level, so that is the biggest question to me.
If Svechnikov is ready I think a 20g/50pt season is quite possible. It is also quite possible he struggles with the grind, misses some games, and falls short of that. If the kid isn’t ready for the NHL it will be quite the disappointment to me because another year in juniors isn’t going to do much for him. Hate that rule.
I am not too worried about his ability to hold up. I believe that him not getting in a full regular season in juniors is due more to circumstances than his durability. In the ’16-’17 season, a handful of the missed games was due to an international tournament that occurred during regular season play (I can’t speak to the remainder of the missed games). He did play in 20 international games that season in addition to the 48 regular season games. The broken hand last season occurred early and was due, presumably, to slashing and not to the wear and tear of a season. He also played in an additional 16 international games this past season.
I will grant that none of that adds up to an 82 game NHL season and I would think that the ability of any rookie to endure an 82 game season would be one of the biggest questions in their jump to the NHL. Hopefully he is following a conditioning regimen this summer that gets him in NHL shape for the upcoming season.
I’m a bit naive when it comes to rookie rules; is Svech able to play 10 NHL games before being sent to Juniors?
Yes. That should be the case.
It certainly would be a disappointment if Svechnikov was not prepared to play for the season. Lessthanstable says that the kid didn’t hold up well in juniors and looked out of shape at the rookie camp we just had. Boy! Do I ever hope he is wrong.
How did our scouts miss that?
Man, that is taking some liberties with my post. I never said Svechnikov was out of shape. I said he wasn’t in NHL shape, which is common for kids coming out of juniors. The difference is this kid is supposed to jump straight to the NHL. Most get a couple years to get there.
As far as holding up in juniors his games played numbers are there for everyone to see. 48/60 in the USHL in ’16/’17 and 44/68 in the OHL in ’17/’18. The NHL is a bit tougher than those leagues. Injuries should be a concern.
Just trying to give my thoughts and back them up with information. I would appreciate folks not misrepresenting my statements.
1. I think the best match is Laine. Svech has the demonstrated ability to score from anywhere in the o-zone and he is strong around the net. I have no worries about him being NHL-ready and…
2. …having a big rookie season, although possibly not 30+ big but 24-28 is not beyond reason.
3. 27G/22A.
I offer my deepest heartfelt apologies for “misrepresenting” your statements. Silly me for thinking that when you said “…he definitely wasn’t in NHL shape at the rookie camp”, you meant that he was out of shape. Further, I was silly when I thought that when you said “He hasn’t held up to(sic) well at the junior level” you meant just that.
I am so guilty of “misrepresenting what you said. Of course, it isn’t possible that I misunderstood because you were in a hurry when you wrote what you wrote or maybe were just too lazy to be clear.
So here is what I propose to be a solution. I do not intend to blow my brains out. Nor do I promise to punish myself in any way for the crime of “misrepresentation”.
I will, however, refuse to read anything else that you write. That way I will obviate the problem.
Forgive me, if you will. Or not. I don’t much care.
Thank you for ignoring my posts. I will do the same to yours. I have no need for your passive aggressive behavior.
I read this site every day and in the past it has been one with the most courteous contributors on the internet with interesting opinions worth reading. I would like to make a suggestion to keep it that way. When you disagree with another’s opinion (that’s all they are folks) just state you disagree and then state your own opinion. When you agree with someone’s opinion, say so if you think you would like to do so. Otherwise, don’t be so touchy that when someone disagrees with you that you interpret it as an attack. I sometimes word things that I intend to mean one thing and another reader will interpret it differently and in a negative fashion. I remember once when ctcaniac had a complaint about something I wrote. His disapproval was voiced by questioning my opinion, but he wasn’t disrespectful. He just explained why he disagreed. When he pointed out his problem with my post, I could see where one could interpret what I said in a manner I didn’t intend. I read ct’s comments always and never looked upon his questioning my opinion as some sort of attack. Not trying to preach…just would like for everyone to respect each other. All of your OPINIONS are important as they are the whole reason for coming to this site. And believe me, when you read my crap…er…opinions, there is plenty of room for error in them. Just remember, my margin for error is plus or minus infinity.
Thank you, Red. As always, you are the peacemaker. In this case, however, I simply commented on what I read from someone whose comments I believed to be true. Instead of merely clarifying the post in question (which he did, and that cleared up part of my misunderstanding) he called me a liar.
I do wish I could find him. I would love to meet him and see if he is man enough to call me a liar to my face. But I know that people like that are cowards.
Thanks again, Red.
What is wrong with you? Is this some kind of threat?
I never called you a liar. I specifically said you misrepresented my post, which you did. I specifically said “NHL shape” which is not “out of shape.” In response you give me a passive/aggressive attack. Not cool. Now you want to meet me? Are you kidding?
Enough. If I see anything else that is remotely close to a threat, and you will be removed from Canes and Coffee.
For everyone, the best part about this site is the ability for passionate fans to discuss Canes hockey in a friendly manner even when people disagree.
Even in disagreement or even in error, there is a right and wrong way to interact here. Please keep that in mind.
C’mon guys (an assumption here), both of you are valuable contributors to this site and your opinions are as worth reading as any others. Don’t let the points you are trying to make about topics Matt raises each day get lost with the personal stuff. Be passionate in defending your views if you want, but don’t make it personal. Listen, there is no one more passionate than puckgod, but his or her passion is never a personal thing and for sure I never pass up anything he or she writes. My purpose in these comments is not to be a peacemaker, it is entirely self-serving. The more input with all the varying views in comments makes the site much more alive. Trust me, my opinions have turned out being proven so many times I’ve become an embarrassment to hockey at times. Yet no one has crucified me for it. I’ve become so conscious of the ridiculousness of some of my “brilliant” observations, that I even time some of my comments. For example, I never try to write anything before dmilleravid has written his opinions because his are usually IMO so well thought out. That way I save myself from going too far off the deep end on issues. No matter how smart an idea I think I have, it never fails that ctcaniac and numerous others (including you and lessthan…) come up with a more unique and/or better idea that I wish I had thought of. My last comment…if you want to see a definition of “out of shape”, I’m it. Believe me, using that measurement scale, there isn’t anyone on the Canes roster that can hold a candle to me (I hope).
Chill guys. I think everyone is in waiting for the “puck to drop blues”. I, like Matt would hate to see this forum become like all the others. This is the main reason I visit this site…… for educated comments and little if any confrontations. (Until now)
As for Svechnikov comparison I am in the Laine camp. I agree he will be a force on the PP too especially if he paired with Aho, TT, and Hamilton and Faulk (if still here) on blue line. 25 goals 30 assists.
Thank you, Matt.
Thanks again, Red. I think that the solution to the problem in this case is the one I have promised less than… I would implement. I will simply not read anything he posts. I saw where he recently posted some things, but I didn’t read them. I guess one of the posts contained a threat against me. Oh well.
It’s a shame because I was always excited to read whatever he had to say. I really thought of him as someone who had something interesting to say.
But being called a liar is not what I enjoy. So I will ignore all posts from him.
Thanks again, Red.
Unbelievable.
The only words I saw that could be read as a threat were these (and they weren’t written by lessthanstable):
“I do wish I could find him. I would love to meet him and see if he is man enough to call me a liar to my face. But I know that people like that are cowards.”
Like several who have commented here, I am of the belief that Svechnikov is a good comparison with Patrik Laine.
Last season his coach was quoted, “We don’t talk to Patty anymore. We talk to the others. We tell them to give the puck to him.”
I believe that this is something like what Roddy will be saying this coming season.
40 or more goals is, in my not-very-humble opinion, reasonable for us to expect from him as a rookie.
I believe that the Canes will surprise themselves and us. Scoring will become synonymous with Carolina Hurricanes.
I see Svetchnikov getting 15-20 goals, and 40pts easily. Of course if he has a breakout season and does what Laine did, I won’t be disappointed.
And Skinner is traded…
I was concerned we wouldn’t get poo for him. But we did get Pu. And three picks.
A bit of a “shitty” trade. Seriously, A bonified scorer for a third round 2016 pick, and a second, third and 6th round picks in 2020. I’m sure the 6th round pick sealed the deal. I was very worried the Canes were running out of those. Maybe the Canes even got a bag of pucks too.
That is a major major downgrade in scoring.
The Canes management better have some move up their sleeve , I mean other than Faulk for a 2022 7th rounder.
If anybody can make this look like a good trade, that person should be making millions in sales.
Seriously, where is at least a first rounder, what about a guy that could at least potentially help this season, Sam Reinhard would’ve been great, well compared to Poo?
Pu’s number’s are solid. Ahem. He is another scorer.
The canes continue their game of +|- moneyball.
I’m glad, I was worried that the Pu was runny. 😉 Plenty of “moral” fiber.
Lol. My trade watch fatigue was just reduced by 50%.