Today’s Daily Cup of Joe has a few catch up notes from Canes hockey conversations that I have had over the past few days.
Martin Necas
I have had multiple people ask for my thoughts and/or share theirs on the Martin Necas situation. At the most basic level, I see Necas as the kind of pure playmaking center with speed that the Hurricanes desperately need. Patience is in order for an 18-year old 2017 draftee, but I think he projects into that role and that it could be sooner rather than later. I posted a detailed assessment of Martin Necas on September 28.
In the here and now after the first regular season game, here are my thoughts on Martin Necas…
I think the greatest odds (by far) are that he eventually plays elsewhere for the vast majority of the 2017-18 season. I say that for two reasons. First is that I think it is unlikely that he makes the Hurricanes significantly better as a wing for the 2017-18 season. As I said in the previous article, I think he is capable of playing at the NHL level and holding his own, but the bar to stay has to be set higher than ‘could do it.’ That gets to the second reason which is that I think his long-term development is best served playing a full season in a variety of roles at the center position.
So why is he still at the NHL level then? I think there are three reasons. The first is that it is simply a reward for his play since being drafted. He has legitimately played his way up the depth chart and to within range of being an NHLer and is being rewarded for it. Second is that I think the Hurricanes think that a little bit more exposure to the NHL level even if it is at a practice level will benefit Necas’ development. Best bet is that he returns to the Czech Republic where he played last year, so he will gain more development-wise for a few weeks practicing with (and possibly playing with the Hurricanes) and giving up a few games in the Czech Republic or possibly elsewhere. Finally, I think he showed enough flash in preseason that Bill Peters and Ron Francis think there is at least a chance that they find lightning in a bottle if he does get a game or two in the regular season before the clock hits nine games and a decision must be made. Every day that he is with the team he is learning and absorbing in terms of system, role and also the wing position on the Hurricanes. I think the odds are against it, but there is definitely some chance that Necas gets a game or two, wows and never looks back as he starts his NHL career ahead of schedule just like Jeff Skinner did a few years back.
The blue line minus Trevor van Riemsdyk
After an awkward fall into the boards, the Hurricanes are expected to take to the ice minus van Riemsdyk on Tuesday against Columbus. The simplest alternative is to put #7 defenseman Klas Dahlbeck into that spot. The issue is that Dahlbeck struggled early through the front part of the 2016-17 season trying to play on the right side (which is the off side for him). Dahlbeck looked like a completely different player when he logged time on his natural left side later in the season.
It will be interesting to see how Peters handles the situation. Simplest might be to slot Dahlbeck in van Riemsdyk’s slot and then be both limited and selective with the third pairings ice time and match ups especially early until he sees how it is going.
Another interesting alternative would be to move Jaccob Slavin to the right side. Slavin’s drop off playing on his right side is very small if anything. Such a move would effectively see Fleury bumped up into the top 4 which might be a bit premature.
My guess is that Peters will go a bit into random scramble mode for who plays with whom on Tuesday and also will lean really heavily on his top defensemen. Entering only the second game of the season everyone should be relatively rested, and the Hurricanes have three days off before their next game. I think Fleury and Dahlbeck will both log some ice time with stronger partners, and I also would not be surprised to see a couple of the top defensemen push up to 25 or 26 minutes if the game is close.
The subtle goodness of Victor Rask
Victor Rask’s quiet second half of the 2016-17 season is well-documented at this point, and he ideally does need to find a higher gear offensively. (His two points on Saturday were obviously a nice step in that direction.) But watching him in person again without being limited to the puck-tracking camera angles of television broadcasts served as reminder of just how good Rask is with the significant subtleties of positioning and decision-making. He had a sequence on a single shift on Saturday that was a perfect illustration. In the span of a shift, he skated a perfect lane coming back into the defensive zone that the Wild player carrying the puck straight into the Hurricanes defenseman with no room to cut back to the middle where Rask was close enough to cut him off. And at the same time, Rask managed to stay in the passing lane to the player coming through the middle of the ice who was his responsibility. Then a few seconds later, he helped a defenseman win a puck in the corner by sealing off a Wild player’s path to the puck and a couple seconds later made himself available for a short, safe pass off the wall to relieve pressure on the defenseman deep in his own end. The 2017-18 will be a test for where Rask’s ceiling ultimately lies in terms of raw offensive production, but regardless of scoring totals, he continues to show the the less exciting skill set that makes him a capable NHL centerman at a minimum.
What say you Canes fans?
1) How do you think Peters will maneuver the blue line to replace van Riemsdyk’s ice time?
2) What are your thoughts on Martin Necas specifically for the 2017-18 season?
Go Canes!
1) I hope that whatever happened to Van Reimsdyk that it’s minor. RHD remains a position without a ton of depth in the system, and we don’t have an easy plug in, for the reasons you’ve noted above. I’m hoping for a minor miracle where he can play tonight. If not, given the spacing of the game, I think you’ll see an absolute ton of minutes for Slavin and Pesce, and you’ll see the kind of limited sheltered minutes for Dahlbeck that we saw for our 4th line and 3rd pairing last year. It’s not that Dahlbeck is a bad player, it’s that he’s a liability when forced to play his off side.
Injuries will be a huge factor this season. The overall talent and depth of the team is building, but it’s not quite there yet. I hope the Canes can stay fairly healthy.
2) I disagree somewhat on Necas, in that I think he has a scorer’s touch to compliment his vision, skating, and passion.
The problem is that he has a slight frame and he’s been forced to the perimeter to avoid devastating hits given his age/size and the competition he’s played against.
This is why I would love to see him play in Canadian juniors. No, it won’t help him grow against men in a pro league. It will, however, let him know just how good he can be against players his own age and size.
He could hit the weights and absolutely dominate the competition, learning just what he’s capable of as a player. More than anything else, I wish to give him time to build up his own confidence. My fear is that he’s rushing due to his overall talent, and that he may never reach his true ceiling without time to further hone his offensive game without the fear of getting crushed every shift.
Agree on wanting Necas in Juniors or the AHL rather than Czech league despite the unlikelyhood. I believe Juniors are the best place for young forwards to learn to be scoring superstars. The Czech league is notoriously low scoring and isn’t giving him the greatest quality of competition even if it’s vs. men.
Humm, I was thinking Czech might be best because of men as talent level. I had no idea it was low scoring. AHL would burn a contract year, so maybe Juniors is best per your comment. Good observation which I did not realize.
I just seen TVR is in concussion protocol. Not playing tonight.
1. Bill Peters will earn his salary tonight on the defensive pairings. On the one hand, problems in the top 4 Saturday require stabilizing tonight. On the other hand, you don’t want to lose the game with the third pairing. Least disruptive is to put Dahlbeck in the TVR slot.
2. Matt’s comments on Rask provide the perfect contrast for considering Necas (of course). Necas has the razzle dazzle but has so many subtleties to learn. He has probably been provided a list (hopefully not overwhelming) of situations and actions to watch and learn, so he fully understands what he has to go back and work on.
Rask lacks the razzle dazzle but does so many small things consistently well. Tuck Necas under his wing for a spell, then place him in the best situation to develop the subtle things, which may be more about coaching situations and teammates than who he would play against.
1. I think Dalbeck slots in on his right side, unless Fleury is really good playing right D. We can double shift Slavin and Pesce to ease the strain.
2. I think Necas gets a game or two at least, just to get a taste. But I agree with againstthegrain. He needs at least a season doing NHL level strength and conditioning, and a season in the Czech League before he gets a full time job here. Sort of what we did with Aho vs. what we did with Lindholm.
I don’t remember Derek Ryan being far superior at center than he was on the wing last year. If Necas needs to play Center to be effective, why not bump Derek to the wing for a game?
1) I have to think that Dahlbeck has known since he signed with the Canes in May or June that the 7th D was a possible destination and that, therefore, he would see time on the right side. So I want to think he has been working on that side as well – and I am pretty sure he played the right (with Bean on his left) in one of the preseason games. I am not sure what Peters has been doing in practice but, again, I have to think Dahlbeck is seeing time on both left and right. So I expect him to be better prepared and more effective than he was at the start of last season when he admitted he rarely played on the right.
If he is effective on Fleury’s right, I see more limited minutes for the 3P but not being sheltered. Otherwise a number of permutations have already been discussed above and Peters will make adjustments.
I think it is a big game for Dahlbeck to demonstrate he can play the right when called on.
Apparently TvR’s injury is relatively minor – pain in the ankle and knee from sliding into the boards. I would expect he would be ready by the weekend. If he is not and if Dahlbeck is not effective on the right McKeown may be called up. But that is getting ahead of tonight.
2) I am on the fence regarding Necas. I would hate to see him put into an NHL game and not succeed, particularly if asked to play wing. But it would be a shame for him to not get at least one game in. I would love to see him start as a center with two NHLers on his wing. That would push Ryan to the wing for one game but the Doctor is effective on the wing.
If there was a chance for Necas to make his debut in Raleigh, Kuokkanen’s play on Saturday eliminated it. I expect he will see game action on the road trip. Unless he shows something he didn’t during the preseason, he won’t get more than a couple of games, I don’t think. He seems to definitely want to return to the Czech league if he is not with the Canes. I saw some article lead indicating that the AHL would not be the right place for him, but I never read the article so I don’t know the reasoning behind that premise. I actually think the AHL would be a good locations – even Peters once described it as “very good”.
Is there a reason why they don’t just bring up McKeown for a game or two?
Possibly because Dahlbeck on his off-side is still better than McKeown???
Trevor Carrick.
Carrick is left, McKeown righty. I am sure BP will determine if McKeown could be better then Dahlbeck on his off-side.
What was “pain in the ankle and knee” yesterday is today a concussion for TvR. Look for that call-up before the trip north and west.
Do you think Necas gets bounced out a little earlier than planned now because of this?
Possible. Maybe they play Necas tonight to get a game in before doing a call up for the road trip. It will be interesting to see what BP does.