Yesterday’s Daily Cup of Joe with random player notes on Warren Foegele, Brett Pesce, Phil Di Giuseppe and Teuvo Teravainen initially had issues with the comments being closed. If anyone wants to stir up a conversation there, it should be open now.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe takes a quick look at the Hurricanes current and future salary structure.
Goalie
Increasingly in today’s NHL, teams that do not have one of the dozen-ish bona fide #1 goalies utilize a tandem of two goalies both of whom earn a salary above the backup level. With a going market rate of $2.5 to to $3.5 million for 1A/1B level goalies in the second tier and with good not even elite starters now regularly signing for $6 million or more, the Hurricanes $5.6 million salary commitment for the position is modest by today’s NHL norms. The burning question is whether he duo of Scott Darling and Petr Mrazek can play at least around league average.
Scott Darling‘s $4 million salary is very reasonable if he can rebound and be an average NHL goalie, but if he cannot, $4 million is too much to drag forward for a backup goalie.
Petr Mrazek‘s $1.5 million salary is also a very reasonable price for a backup with starting experience, but as with Darling, the key is that Mrazek must rebound and be at least decent.
Defense
The blue line is where the Hurricanes have the potential to shine in terms of salary cap management. Solid top 4 defensemen regularly clock in at around $6 million per year. As such, the Hurricanes have done well in building a top 4 that features players still in their prime but at a discount to the $6 million salary benchmark.
Jaccob Slavin and Brett Pesce begin their new contracts for the 2018-19 season and will earn a combined $9.3 million yearly for the foreseeable future. Newly-acquired Dougie Hamilton and Calvin de Haan clock in a bit higher at $5.75 million and $4.55 million respectively, but still at a discount. The four players average $4.9 million per year. Justin Faulk arguably gives the Hurricanes one too many top 4 defensemen right now, but interestingly his salary comes in at a comparable $4.8 million. Then if you add in third pairing defensemen Trevor van Riemsdyk at $2.3 million and Haydn Fleury still playing on his entry-level contract for $863,333, the Hurricanes have managed to build a pretty solid blue line that averages under 25 years of age with de Haan as the elder statesman at only 27 years old.
Players must perform to justify any salary, but heading into the 2018-19 season one has to like the current talent level and price for the Hurricanes blue line if the team ultimately trades Justin Faulk.
Forwards
The Hurricanes forward group is a bit more of a mixed bag.
The team benefits significantly from Sebastian Aho, Brock McGinn and Andrei Svechnikov still playing on entry-level contracts for less than $1 million per year. Similarly, any of the Charlotte Checkers group that includes Warren Foegele, Valentin Zykov, Lucas Wallmark, Martin Necas and others would also be playing for less than $1 million in 2018-19 if they make the NHL roster. Phil Di Giuseppe, Micheal Ferland and Jordan Martinook are also all playing on modest sub-$2 million contracts. Add in the $2.86 million that Teuvo Teravainen will earn in 2018-19, and the Hurricanes could stock almost a full set of forwards on sub-$2 million contracts.
The team does have two sets of pricier contracts.
First, middle nine forwards Victor Rask and Justin Williams earn $4 million and $4.5 million respectively. Relative to a down 2017-18 campaign, Rask is definitely priced higher than his current level of play. He would be a great fourth-line center with decent two-way play and modest scoring. But as even a third line center, Rask is probably overpaid right now. Williams in terms of raw offensive production is either fairly priced or maybe a bit high. But he did put up a solid 51 points in 2017-18, and if he is given the chance to lead and can help effect the change necessary to win, then splitting hairs on an exact fair salary quickly fades into the background.
Finally, at the top of the salary table for forwards is Jordan Staal and Jeff Skinner who will both earn $6 million in 2018-19. With salary inflation running high right now, I think one can make a strong case that $6 million is a fair price for an elite checking line center and a high-end scorer.
When one nets out the forward situation, it is a bit like the goalie position. The team is below the norm for total salary, but that is only a bargain if the players perform at a high level.
Looking into the future
As noted above, the key for the goalie position is level of play not price at this point. If Darling rebounds, no one will care to split hairs on a fair price. But if he fails again in 2018-19, the Hurricanes could well be forced to buy him out and start anew at the goalie position yet again.
If the team trades Justin Faulk as I expect, the blue line really is the prize of the team right now with solid young players locked in for prices that are below market prices right now and likely to just continue becoming better bargains over time.
The wild cards at forward are the next contracts for Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen. If Aho takes even a modest step forward to the 70-80-point range, he could push up into the second tier of forwards and up to an $8 million salary for his next contract. And if Teravainen stays with Aho and rises similarly production-wise, he could be right behind him. The team does still have a number of players on entry-level or similarly priced contracts, but if Aho and Teravainen push up in price next summer as expected, the team’s cost structure at forward will start to look more like the NHL standard.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Of the group of defensemen signed to reasonable deals, whose contract do you think represents the biggest bargain?
2) What do you anticipate for next contracts for Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen?
3) Who has other thoughts/insights on the Hurricanes salary structure both currently and also looking into the future?
Go Canes!
1) Pesce. A shut-down RD at just over $4M is a bargain. If, as I think, Pesce becomes an above-average offensive producer from the blueline (say 35 points per season), then he is a great bargain.
2) Aho=8 years/$57 million. Teravainen=6 years/$33 million. That is if the organization can sign them this offseason. If the Canes gamble and wait until after this season, then I think Aho’s total goes to $64M and Teravainen’s to $38M. The teams with the best contracts lock players up (Nashville, Florida). Look at the contracts for Huberdeau, Barkov, and Trocheck. Signing players long-term as soon as possible pays big dividends.
3) If the team moves Skinner and Faulk then then next two years the Canes have no real issue (unless one player is returned with $5M+ salary). However, in three years when Svechnikov and Necas are RFAs, the Canes will no longer be a “budget” team. There will be ways to avoid having serious cap issues, but the team will have at least 5 players with salaries around or significantly above $6M.
Will be interesting to see if Sebastian Aho re-signs this summer as I suspect. I think he is one whose upside salary risk of waiting another year is high enough to push hard to get a deal done. I think 5-7 years at $7 million per year is probably what gets it done. Once it starts to push to $8 million then enough of the salary increase risk goes away that maybe waiting is not as bad of a path.
1) Pecse and Slavin are both bargains. If Pesce picks up his offense, which I believe he will, he will be the biggest bargain.
2) Aho will sign at somewhere between 6 and 8 million per year depending upon when he is signed and the contract term. Teravainen will sign for 5 and 6 million per year again depending upon when they sign and contract length.
3) As the league salary structure stands right now (what GM’s are paying and what the cap is) even if the Canes don’t trade Skinner and/or Faulk, I see no problems. The infusion of young players in bottom six forward roles will take care of things for a couple of years. Beyond that, its really a guess, but it would seem like we will have to continue to develop and move into NHL roles young players to replace one or two high paid veteran players.
Dundon just freed up $100K or so. He released Chuck Kaiton.
I find this an utterly classless move and a huge disrespect to someone who has devoted his life to this hockey club and is a solid hall of famer.
My respect for TD and the ownership of this franchise is perminently damaged.
I have to figure out for myself if this is enough to make me search for other hobbies and things to follow, I hope the pull of the on ice product will be enough to make me ignore my misgivings with the ownership.
I do not encourage others to agree with me, I’m only expressing my feeling about this.
I am not in the boat where I will find something else to do with my time, but I too am filled with negativity in thinking about this.
In simple business terms, going this direction for radio is inevitable. Many teams already have, and I think the rest will ultimately do the same. In an age with 82-game TV coverage, DVRs and the ability to track a game live on a phone, I do not think the business is tough for radio sports coverage. Luke DeCock’s article mentions 2,000 listeners which is utterly shocking and paints the picture pretty starkly on the business side.
But a huge part of business is also goodwill, and that is where I think the team completely missed the boat. I am not privy to the detailed math, but what is the cost of doing the right thing for a person who has been part of the organization for 39 years and has played a huge role in this market since its inception?
Again, not knowing the exact math or how the negotiations went, I have to believe there was a way to keep Chuck Kaiton in the mix maybe as a third on the TV team and doing other special segments with an agreement/schedule for a better parting.
Shorter version: As a long-time fan of the team, even in understanding the obvious business sense of it, I am not happy with today’s announcement and am disappointed that the team did not do better with this matter.
I, without knowing the amount of dollars involved, had hoped the Canes could find a role for Kaiton. Since the move has been made not to come to terms with him, sure, I am somewhat disappointed that nothing could be worked out. Looking at it beyond the “it would have been nice” approach, I don’t see it having much effect on the organization as a whole. You Matt, me, and all the contributor’s to this site make up a miniscule number of diehard Canes fans. The typical fan beyond us probably never heard of Chuck Kaiton beyond knowing he was the Canes radio announcer and probably (more than likely) never listened to Chuck Kaiton. That fact probably defines exactly why he was determined to be expendable by the organization. If the cost to the team to continue with Kaiton was $500,000 or there about, it is not hard to see why the move was made. It was a tough move to make, but it makes sense.
breezy, I agree with you and Matt. But this is what I am coming to expect from the ownership style of TD. To make a lowball offer, to tell him he has to go out and sell more sponsorship for his radio show to make up the difference (note, he was doing that anyway) and then to completely reject a counter. As Chuck said, the offer was an invitation to leave (and not an invitation to accept or even negotiate).
We talk about culture on the ice, but there is also culture in the organization – TD needs to pay attention to the sports franchises where quality players want to play and quality people want to work – GSW, San Antonio, even his hometown Mavs. You reward people, you reward commitment and loyalty. You have to pay up for culture, but there is long-term reward and benefits in doing so.
As a parting comment, how attractive do alternatives away from the Canes appear to Forslund when his contract is up for seeing how his friends and coworkers have been dealt with.
An article over on WRAL states that the total expense of the radio broadcast was half a million, not sure if it was all salary or other expenses were lumped in
or whether it was partly offset by corporate sponsors (the article indicate it wasn’t, but the jingles and Chuck’s own introductions always mentioned sponsors).
I realize I may sound somewhat hypocritical when I’ve stated the team needs to become more of a business, less of a feelgood story, primarily referencing all the mom and pop trips and so on, but I was referring to the on ice product, not the off ice support personnel.
The team still needs to be uniquely Carolina, retaining some of its history, its culture, a little bit of what makes it the Carolina Hurricanes as opposed to a group of players for hire who couldn’t care less about what uniform they wear.
At least the management should try to avoid portraying that image to the fans, else why would the fans care if the team won or lost?
I think Chuck was an integral part of the Canes identity, and the way he was let go indicates the owner couldn’t care less about team identity, what he cares about is something I can’t say, probably making money (but if he did, why did he buy a sports team?)
Anyways, the decision has been made, the team is moving in a new direction, whether the fans will follow is anybody’s guess.
I need time to digest all this and decide if I follow. Fortunately I have a lot of fun chatting with y’all’s and would miss the sense of the C&C community, maybe enough to stick with the Canes, at least for another season.
You can dislike O/M and still cheer for the players, breezy.
BTW, the Canes were 99.9 to broadcast the games – with a decision to move to simulcast all they are doing is dumping ChuckK’s salary – nevermind how they went about doing it.
It’s one thing to move on and it is another thing to treat a Canes’ icon with disrespect. We have seen it before with this crew. But, again, you can dislike O/M and still cheer for the players.
Humm, half M is a bit. TD is saving money in place he does not feel it is necessary. He is a business guy. I am not happy with the Chuck K move as well but it probably is the future for all teams. TD is tight with money but he did go after Calvin de Haan. Maybe he is not as cheap as we think, it may be just putting the money where it matters.
I understand that many fans who visit this site have a lot of positive feelings for Mr. Kaiton. Probably a lot of fond memories from his broadcasts. I was amped many years ago when Skip Carey was said to be leaving the Braves.
If I may share a different perspective. I didn’t know who he was until the issue of his contract came up. From an outside perspective if I had a business venture that was losing six figures every year and only averaged 2000 listeners then I would move on as well. If the news and observer is correct, it was past time to make a change.
It is expected that some start the drumbeat that Dundon is cheap. The team is renovating the players area, tried to redo the scoreboard, and also signed a really good free agent. But if calling someone cheap helps some fans that is fine. The stoppage of continuing to lose money on a failed media venue is not cheap but a sound business practice. Some have gripes about the team being a good old boys club but when a good old fellow leaves they get upset.
Mr. Kaiton was offered a contract. He chose to reject it. That is business. After his interview in Calgary, I am not sure he should even be a part of the organization going forward. Since the canes are not looking for a new radio voice, I don’t see how this really impacts future employees.
I get it that people are upset. But nostalgia doesn’t change the fact that the radio broadcast for the canes had passed its expiration date.
1. Slavin’s contract and term is fantastic. I think, if given the opportunity on PP and more offensive zone starts, he has potential to put up 10-15 goals/yr.
2. Signing Aho at $7mil for 7 years makes a lot of sense to me. I’d do it before the season starts. With TT, I think the team needs to know if he can produce points separate from Aho. I think he can. And if so, he’s incredibly valuable. I would be really interested to see TT centered by Necas. Aho centering Svech could be a good fit. The other wing on each of those lines would be filled in with Zykov, Ferland, McGinn, or maybe a new addition via trade. I think TT gets $6.5mil for 5 years.
3. If Rask and Darling struggle again this year, those contracts are rough for a low budget team like Canes. Also, only $7mil left to pay Semin!
Love Slavin, but expecting big offensive numbers from him is setting yourself up for disappointment. Slavin’s shot is pedestrian at best. Sure, he can chip in a few, but double digits in goals is big time for defensemen. During his best years with the Canes Faulk had 15 goals or so and he has a bomb…and from the right side to boot! Slavin’s emphasis on offense this past season detracted from his defensive play, IMO, and he had little to show for it on the scoresheet. Stick with D, Jaccob.
Signing Aho for $7M per would be a great deal, but I doubt he would do it. He is a potential point per game player and that could bring in a lot more. We’ll see what happens.
TT’s skill set isn’t as well rounded as Aho. Less speed, weaker on the boards, etc. I would be hesitant to sign Turbo for more than $5M per.
I have questions about TT as well, but I’ve warmed up to him a lot after this past season. Would be really interested to see him without Aho.
But the reality of salaries in the NHL today say that TT will get at least $5mil/yr. Elias Lindholm is making $4.85/yr and his last 3 seasons of goals scored were: 11, 11, 16.
Very true. I guess the number is closer to $6M. If Aho scores 80 plus points this season his number will probably be closer to $9M.
Though their point totals might be similar (and were in 2017-18), I do not put Aho and Teravainen in the same category. I think Aho is the type of player who can drive a scoring line and make whoever he plays with better, whereas Teravainen is a great complementary player who is scoring-line capable.
But as long as Teravainen meshes well with Aho and produces like he did in 2017-18, he is a valuable player. Eric Staal’s struggles without enough help, and Jeff Skinner’s struggles to mesh with and make line mates better are good Canes-centric illustrations of the importance of chemistry and fit between players.
The tricky part is figuring out what the price is for Teravainen if I am right, but his scoring numbers as similar to Aho’s. In today’s NHL, he could have a case for a $6M-ish salary, but I see him more as a $4.5-$5M type of player.
It’s almost like maybe the right order is to re-sign Teravainen first such that if Aho’s price escalates to get a long-term deal done that it does not drag Teravainen’s price up with it.
Matt. I think you have been dealing with the “budget” Canes for too long. There really is no sense in which TT is a $4.5-5M player. You were correct “in today’s NHL he could have a case for a $6M-ish salary.”
These are what I would consider the closest comps:
Reilly Smith signed 2016 for $5M.
Jaden Schwärtz signed 2016 for $5.35M.
Jonathan Huberdeau signed 2016 for $5.9M
Cam Atkinson signed 2017 for $5.87M.
Nikolaj Ehlers signed 2107 for $6M.
I could see a case for $5M based on the contracts signed earlier this year by Jonathan Marchessault and Josh Bailey.
Anything less then $5M would be hard to justify.
15 goals may be a stretch for Slavin… but I think 10 is possible. Especially paired with Hamilton and getting PP time. But I can also understand if you put Slavin out on the ice against the other team’s best forwards.
One of the complicating factors – and it has been seen in the big contracts signed the past year – is the impact of the CBA opt-out at the end of this season. A lot of high-end players are looking for signing bonuses over salaries, and that has effect on salary numbers amongst other things.
Most of the price ranges of the guys that have been mentioned seem pretty reasonable /realistic to me. Skins’ and Faulk’s salaries (if still here) shouldn’t be outrageous UNLESS THEY IMPROVE /IMPRESS BIG TIME! IMO, and (if that happens) that is a REAL GOOD THING!
Soooo if Faulk is traded (likely returning a good F) that salary acquired could be significantly more $$.
If Skins is moved, the return (possibly futures /prospects) could be modest to cheap! AND…if both are moved, it could be, more or less, a wash!
The concept that the Canes could have a problem with “too high salaries”, or approaching the cap, in the next five years, is preposterous! I see ZERO chance that TD would be a spendthrift, NOT much different than RF really!
1) I think Pesce as shut-down RD is the biggest bargain. Slavin is a bargin as well. Both of them can still improve and get more scoring. I am happy with TVR (very solid) and the other signings as well. Our D could be really good and not overly expensive.
2) For Aho, we already know what he is and will only get better. Sing him for the max, 8 years, if we can. 8 years @ $56 million. TT looks pretty good as well. I know others have some questions yet but 6 years at 36M. Locking up now will be money saved in the long run.
3) It will be a while before we have cap issues. I truly suspect skinner will be more devoted to D this year with urging from RB. Last year was a low and BP didn’t help. I do not see how we get back equal value and high scoring. I am just not on the trade skinner bandwagon. Faulk, we could keep him!! He can still light it up and maybe high paid a 3rd D but we are not hurting for cap. He would probably not need to be as good on D in 3rd pairing. If we do move him, bring back a high end forward, do not settle for junk just to move him. I view Faulk as the most likely to be traded. There is nothing wrong with having 5 top 4 D.
You have to figure Dundon has cleared at least a couple million in salaries so far. Francis is gone, Waddell likely took a modest raise to the $400K he was offering, Brind’Amour and the two new coaches are much cheaper, Kaiton is gone, etc. I guess from a pure cost standpoint it makes sense.
On the other hand a professional sports team isn’t a traditional business. Small market teams in the NHL and MLB don’t regularly make a profit. It can be done, but a winning tradition is paramount. (I would use teams like the Predators and St. Louis Cardinals as examples) Yet, the value of teams continues to soar. Karamanos rarely turned a profit yet cashed in handsomely. The greater fool theory at work, which brings us to Dundon. He’s the current greater fool. A billionaire with a vanity toy sports team. A toy of a team in a sport he didn’t even follow. So, he now comes in and decides he’s going to make a profit (or reduce losses) by sticking it to the people on the lower end of the food chain. Coaches, management, staff. I doubt it will work. He will lose a bit less, but at the end of the day the increases in team value is how you make money in the NHL and MLB.
Dundon should have all the money he could ever need. I guess he has no trouble making the lives of those with less a little worse. He gets zero respect from me. I will follow the team and cheer for them, but I will not renew my ticket package nor spend a dime on tickets from Tom Dundon.