This week, I happened upon two good reads on the Carolina Hurricanes prospect pool.
First, from the local scene, Matt Somma at CBTS posted his rankings for the team’s sub-AHL prospects.
Then the Hurricanes prospect pool landed at #4 overall in The Athletic’s rankings by Corey Pronman (subscription required). What separates Corey from the pack is that he is one of the few ‘sources’ for prospect rankings who evaluates and ranks the players by watching them regularly not just from researching them. Despite the fact that The Athletic is still minus a Carolina Hurricanes beat writer, I still recommend it highly for NHL reading.
As such, today’s Daily Cup of Joe tours Corey’s article briefly and matches them against my viewpoint on some of these players.
Lack of top-end talent
To no one’s surprise, Pronman had Andrei Svechnikov and Martin Necas in the upper tiers of his prospect categories. But below that, Pronman included no one in the fourth tier that was the bottom tier for top half of the roster players (top 6 forwards, top 4 defensemen and starting goalies). He did have five players in the next tier, so he has a few players at the edge of being difference-makers.
Similar and different on the blue line
After the Hurricanes prospect camp, I bumped newcomer Adam Fox to the top of my list for defenseman above first-rounder Jake Bean. Pronman and others are similarly softening on their optimism for Jake Bean just like I did almost from the beginning. To be clear, Jake Bean still has high-end potential, but he continues to be roughly average for his age group defensively, and that will not be good enough to fill more than a niche role at the NHL level. The watch point on him continues to be the defensive side of the puck. In a departure from draft pedigree and most other rankings, Luke Martin surprisingly did not even crack Pronman’s top 25 for the team.
Lack of college entries
Other than newcomers Adam Fox and Jack Drury, none of the other NCAA group of the Hurricanes prospect pool made the top 25 cut. The group of ‘big kids who can skate’ forwards are currently on the outside looking in in terms of NHL potential.
Higher and lower than consensus
A couple players that stand out as being rated higher or lower than where they appear in other similar rankings…
Nicolas Roy: Pronman is very high on his size, all-around game and NHL potential.
Luke Martin: As noted above, unless his omission was an ‘oops’, not cracking the top 25 is surprising.
Warren Foegele: Foegele rates only middle of the pack below a couple of higher ceiling players who he theoretically passed with a strong 2017-18 season in the AHL.
Valentin Zykov: Pronman is not particularly high on him because of his skating. This one will be interesting to watch unfold. First, he has made some gains in terms of skating technique, general mobility and straight line speed, so some of the issues are at least partly historical. Maybe more significantly, he showed in a full season in the AHL and also a short NHL audition that he had what it took to produce offensively in spite of whatever limitations he might have.
Roland McKeown: He is another defenseman who sank relative to most other rankings making the defensive side of the puck a weakness for the prospect pool.
What say you Canes fans?
1) For those who have access to The Athletic article, what was the greatest difference relative to your previous perceptions/rankings of the Hurricanes prospects?
2) On which prospect (or two maybe) do you think Pronman missed the most in your unprofessional opinion?
Go Canes!
I was surprised that Foegle and Zykov weren’t higher, although the concerns about Zykov’s skating and two way play are legitimate for now. I think perhaps most interesting is that he puts Saku Maenalanen in the same category as those two, and says this:
“Maenalanen has an intriguing toolkit. He’s a big winger who skates quite well, especially for a guy with size. He’s got some offensive touch, it’s not great, but he can make the odd skilled play and he can score when he gets his chances. I don’t view his upside as sky-high, and he’s already 24 years old, but I think he could be a bottom-six guy in the NHL with his attributes.”
Certainly feels like a guy who could be really good fit in bottom six this season.
1) I don’t subscribe to the Athletic. So thanks for your synopsis. There has also been pretty extensive discussion at HFBoards, in other words my opinion is based on what several others have said about the Pronman rankings.
My take is that he is probably undervaluing one or two of the Canes’ prospects. The good new is it doesn’t matter which particular player that is. Carolina has a young offensive nucleus: Aho, Teravainen, Svechnikov (sure there is a chance he is another Yakupov but much more likely he is another Taylor Hall), and Necas. Carolina already has a talented and deep defensive group. Truthfully, the team only needs one prospect to complement Aho/Teravainen on the top scoring line, because the organization very likely has a roster player who can complement Necas/Svechnikov in either McGinn or Ferland. As always, goalies are a separate discussion that should only be undertaken on Friday the 13th when there is a full moon.
2) I am confident that Zykov is the player to complement Aho/Teravainen. The concern with skating is legitimate, but overstated. I posted earlier this week Zykov’s elite underlying numbers during his 10-game callup. Those numbers don’t guarantee that Zykov will be successful this season or during his career. But his success over that stretch clearly indicates that deployed properly Zykov’s other skills are strong enough to offset any skating deficiencies. Both Panarin and Pastrnak are given extremely sheltered zone starts–if Zykov can continue to produce offense, then he is being significantly undervalued by Pronman.
There are several other players who I think Pronman has slotted too low. For me the biggest miss is Martin. The comparison that keeps being made is between Martin and Pesce. If Martin can be a lesser version of Pesce, then he clearly falls into the “legit” category.
Having Pronman’s list at least gives hockey fans something to talk/think about in August. So I am glad he does it. However, the fact that he “ranks the players by watching them regularly, not just from researching them” shouldn’t be given too much credence. Forget the book and movie “Moneyball,” if you have read “Thinking Fast and Slow” and have paid any attention to the behavioral economics revolution of the past few years you will know that being closer to prospects (be they hockey players or job candidates) only increases the likelihood for bias. It doesn’t result in better analysis or outcomes.
I was surprised and pleased that Pronman sounds so positive about Roy and disappointed that he didn’t judge Kuokkanen and Fox as “very good” prospects.
Like everybody else, I was really surprised that Luke Martin didn’t make the list. It wasn’t an “oops.” Pronman responded to a question about it by saying Martin is not an NHL player.
One place where Pronman’s rankings aren’t helpful is in deciding whether a prospect is better than a current Canes’ player in a similar role. “Will Foegele and Zykov make it in the NHL?” is a different question from “If inserted in the lineup in place of a current Canes’ player, will they make the Canes better?” This goes to your point about Rask being undervalued. If Roy replaced Rask, would the Canes be better or worse?
I checked NHL rookie stats for last year and found there were 60 rookies in the league who played more than 40 games. It looks as though on average teams have two rookies make the team each year.
There were 28 rookies who played 70 or more games. That’s what the Canes are going to ask of multiple rookies. Boston and NJ each had three of the 28. I didn’t notice any team with 4 rookies playing that many games but I didn’t have time to look closely. In any case, Boston and NJ show you can make the playoffs with an infusion of young talent.
The Canes had no rookie who played 70 or more games last year (unless I overlooked it – will check when I have more time). In retrospect, that seems unfortunate.
I was right about the exact number of games played but wrong about the point of the observation. The Canes had no rookie who played 70 or more games but Haydn Fleury played 67. Close enough.
I have subscribed to the Athlectic since the NHL draft. There was a really good article on the Canes “war room”. I have read many of Custance’s articles through the count down. His articles are usually well written and well thought out. It is important to read the background article on his considerations for the rankings. It may help better understand his conclusions.
Two things of note for me. In the comments section, Custance mentions Necas. Neat part of the Athletic is writers interact in the comments. He said Necas could have been in the same category as Svech. That was the one he struggled with most. If I remember correctly only 8 prospects were “elite”. Necas would have been 9. So it is interesting that he sees Carolina as having 2 of the best 9 prospects in hockey. Very cool.
At the end of the article, Custance says he is the “sometimes president of the Sebastian Aho fan club”. He sees him as an up and coming elite player. We all know where Aho was drafted. Some prospects will suprise and some will disappoint.
In my opinion, Carolina is loaded with great young players. Custance gives a good snapshot, but the players and time will tell who are the best prospects.
My mistake- I confused Custance and Pronman. Both have hockey articles daily on the Athletic. Custance is doing state of the franchises.
Scott Wheeler also rates prospects for the Athletic. On July 27th, he rated Svechnikov the 3rd best prospect and Necas the 9th best. However, he also called Necas a boom or bust prospect who might be a perimeter depth creator or a “truly special player” like Pastrnak.
Wheeler had Fox at 34. He listed 70 honorable mentions and four were Canes prospects: Walmark, Foegele, Bean and McKeown. So in Wheeler’s opinion, the Canes have seven of the top 120 NHL prospects. It seems fair to say that Wheeler views several Canes’ prospects more favorably than Pronman does and Wheeler’s views align better with Canes’ fans’ views on this site.
Traverse City and training camp can’t come soon enough.
Writers offer opinions based on players’ strengths and weaknesses. When a player who has risen to the top of the stat sheets gets omitted in these considerations, don’t forget it’s possible he got there because his strengths overcame the weaknesses perceived by the writer.
Is this going to be a glorious turnaround for the team driven by the young guns we drafted with a chance to prove why we drafted them, or will they turn out to be a bunch of diddly duds that we put all our hopes in because there’s no hope left in the elderly statesmen of the team.
I’ve seen so many different opinions and thoughts that I am thoroughly confused. Thank goodness it is almost time to find out!
Well, if we didn’t know before now…it’s pretty clear that so-called experts don’t always agree!
That said, some (if not most) players look better with “BETTER” STYLE/ SYSTEM, or BETTER PLAYERS!
My simple explanation for late development (or busts) is the team and system may not be conducive for or compatible to a player’s skill-set. In other words change the player or the system, but the Canes are “overachievers”…they did both!
The results may be better, but at least it can’t get much worse, eh?
At least the “expoerts” over at Hockeybuzz do not rate the Canes as having the worst forward group in the NHL. The concensus for that are the Canucks and Red Wings with Arizona as a dishonorable mention.
The canes have the worst goaltending, best defense and most unpredictable forwards. Buckle up folks! This is going to be wild (not Minnesota).
Another data point on prospects: NHL Network will name its top 50 prospects Friday night at 7. Meanwhile, Kimelman and Morreale have done a prospects draft, with only two players taken per round. Svechnikov gets picked 4th (2nd pick, 2nd round, Necas 26th (2nd pick, 13th round). So Necas gets picked after quite a few other center prospects: Mittelstadt, Pettersson, Thomas, Rasmussen, Borgstrom and Kotkaniemi. So the NHL Network guys have Necas as the seventh best center prospect. https://www.nhl.com/news/rasmus-dahlin-casey-mittelstadt-top-prospects-mock-draft/c-299894646
The contracts given to Zykov and Wallmark tells us some interesting stuff about where the Hurricanes mindset might be. Zykov and his league minimum, 2-year, one-way deal essentially says that the organization thinks the kid has a spot in Raleigh. Moreover, it tells me that Rod Brind’Amour has a pretty specific idea about how he’d like to use young Valentin (of course, dependent on camp, pre-season, and all the rest). This is reinforced by the fact that he stayed in Raleigh this summer and has been working out with team trainers. That in, and of, itself is very telling. Methinks HCRBA communicated expectations in some way to Zykov and he took those to heart.
Lucas Wallmark also signed a 2 year contract this Summer with the 1st year being a 2 way deal and the 2nd year being a 1 way deal. It doesn’t take too much imagination to think that the team feels Wallmark is on the cusp of being ready for a full time spot with the Canes. It also might portend a move where either a rejuvenated Victor Rask reclaims a larger role in the line up or he’s replaced by Lucas Wallmark. In either case, it’s hard for me not to imagine that one of those two is an asset to be used in a trade.