If you have been busy with the basketball version of tournament brackets and missed it, please also take a look at our Hurricanes bracket challenge. Thursday’s “The Good Old Days” bracket pits great games in Hurricanes history against each other.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe offers up a short series of simple statistics that jump out in looking at the Hurricanes’ 2017-18 season thus far.
Victor Rask at even plus/minus
Yes, yes…I realize that there are limitations with the plus/minus statistic but with a 70-game sample size, I think it is interesting to measure if a team wins or loses at even strength with certain players on the ice as compared to others on the same team (and therefore playing with somewhat similar background factors). Victor Rask stands out as being even in plus/minus. By all accounts, he has had a down 2017-18 season. No doubt, his 13 goals and 26 assists (which project to 34 points at season’s end) are light production-wise. But that maybe makes his break even status even more impressive and suggests that he continues to hold his own in terms of doing his part to keep the puck out of the Hurricanes’ net. At the end of the day, the Hurricanes do not need another scoring-light, two-way center, but the fact that Rask’s scoring struggles do not seem to have rubbed off on the rest of his game is a positive.
Biggest winning streak of only four games
A couple times along the way in evaluating the Hurricanes’ playoff chances, I said that the team would need to put together one extended winning streak. And now 70 games into the season, that streak has proven to be elusive. The Hurricanes have mustered only a single four-game winning streak and two three-game winning streaks. The story of the season has been a bunch of small steps forward followed almost immediately by a step back which not surprisingly nets to a record that is only two games above .500.
Cam Ward at 11-4-2 with 3+ days rest
As a goalie who has been a starter for the past decade, one had to wonder how well Cam Ward would adjust to more intermittent starts as a backup during the 2017-18 season. Ward has actually thrived with spaced out starts, playing his best hockey with three or more days off. His 11-4-2 record is stellar, and the underlying statistics (.910 save percentage and 2.70 goals against average) are also better than his average.
Jordan Staal with five primary assists on Aho and Teravainen goals
Also borrowing from a previous article, of the 46 goals scored by Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen, Jordan Staal has a primary assist on only five of them. Staal aids any scoring line with his ability to drive possession and get the puck from the defensive zone to the offensive zone. Aho and Teravainen have benefited from this skill set of Staal’s. But I think the low volume of primary assists accurately measures the fact that playmaking is not among Staal’s strongest suits.
Jaccob Slavin’s penalty kill woes
On January 3, I wrote an article that broke down some statistics on the Hurricanes struggling penalty kill. That article surprisingly found a few players thought to be good penalty killers in the middle of a disproportionate number of goals allowed. Marcus Kruger has since been jettisoned in general, but even more bizarre is Jaccob Slavin’s situation. At the time of the article, Slavin had been on the ice for 18 of the 20 power play goals against the Hurricanes. Fast forward to today and the Hurricanes have allowed 17 more power play goals since the start of 2018…And Jaccob Slavin has been on the ice for EVERY one of them. (Because I could not believe what the data was telling me, I manually verified the 11 goals for January and February, so the data seems correct.) As a defenseman who has bee a regular on the penalty kill, it would not be surprising if Jaccob Slavin was on the ice for slightly more than half of the power play goals allowed. He plays slightly more than half of the penalty kill ice time. But being on the ice for 35 out of 37 power play goals against jumps off the stat sheet and is definitely worth some time for the coaches and video scouting team to figure out what is going on.
Who else has statistics that jump out at them when considering the numbers behind the Hurricanes 2017-18 season?
Go Canes!
I actually noticed a similar point about Rask when I looked at his stats last week. His Corsi, faceoff % and Takeaway/Giveaway ration are all among the best of his career. I agree, if I’m looking third line center, I’ll take Lindholm over Rask every day, but Rask does have value despite the down year offensively.
I think the best plan with Rask is to try and package him with Faulk to try and get another scorer, but despite the down year, Victor Rask is not a poor hockey player. At least the stats say so, if the eye test does not.
Also great find on the Slavin stat. That’s huge. For the second-year pro, it’s good that he still has things to work on. I love what he’s done for the fanbase and for the team as a whole. Keep working and keep developing Canes, I still believe in you.
Are there any stats that break down power play successes by the #1 and #1 group for each team? I would expect at least 75% of the goals on the power play to be scored by the first PP group. That’s a guess, but if its true or close to the actual stats, it would at least partially explain the discrepancy for Slavin since he plays mostly against the top PP group for each opponent.
Interesting stats for Rask. Again, it highlights the issues when due to a lack of overall team talent, players are forced to be slotted higher in the lineup than their skill set justifies. Rask by all accounts would be a good fourth line center on a good team with the ability to slide up in the lineup from time to time if necessary due to injuries or to get match ups for particular opponents. When forced into a third or second line role, he struggles to score and then is viewed as a bust. Contracts and expectations often trump reality.
I completely agree and would even add to your last statement – rather than contracts trump reality – contracts DEFINE reality in salary cap sports.
When you sink cap space, which is finite, into poor value you are not just analyzing that single player in a vacuum but also their effect on the rest of the team. So when I look at Victor Rask returning slightly negative value (and majorly negative value at 4M if he is on the 4th line next year) – it isn’t about HIS play which Matt has documented nicely as passable/satisfactory. It is the fact that Victor Rask + his negative value on the 4th line is inhibiting the team from utilizing Derek Ryan at positive value on the 4th line + the extra 2-3 million in savings that could turn into a Lee Stempniak type free agent.
So is Victor Rask + not having enough money to add a player better than an $1 million dollar 4th line center + $3 million dollar 3rd line player? That is the issue with his contract, not necessarily his play in itself.
To give some concrete examples:
Riley Nash 1.7 M + Tomas Vanek 2 M = 3.7 M.
And those are just UFA comparables – RFAs like Calle Jarnkrok 2M and Connor Brown 2.1 M and Ryan Spooner 2.8M are much more accurately paid for their production along with a similar age to Rask.
Rask is not a plug. But unfortunately Rask with the contract he has is a total plug I’m sorry but he is Ron Francis’ Semin contract right now. Thankfully it’s not 7 M per season…
Good observation on Rask and I agree, I see him as a very effective forth line center next year.
* If Walmark or Necas are ready to assume third line center duties.
* If Aho is ready to move to first line center (and we add a capable scoring winger)
Rask (or his agent) got the Canes to overpay for his services, kudos to him, and I doubt he can be traded, but at least the Cansee get upgrade the 4th line substantially by moving him down and he can be slotted higher when needed.
I wonder what is Skinner’s shot percentage this year, compared to last. It seems he takes anawful lot of shots but either cannot find the net, or is taking shots from further out or from worse angles.
It is a fact that the Canes roster is capable of much more than they showed this year which, if they can rediscover their mojo, is encouraging.
Skinner’s S% this year is 8.3% – last year it was 13.2%. His annual goal totals, by eyeball analysis, are directly related to his shooting %, which varies between about 8-14%. His annual shot totals do not show a lot of variance.
Very interesting find about the Staal primary assist situation. I think it would be nice to see him slated to line up on a shutdown line with some lower offensive ceiling veterans next season than go again with Aho and Terevainen. I do think Lindholm, or possibly some outside acquisition could fit with Aho and Terevainen moving forward while Staal starts playing in the role that he will have to be in if this team is going to be a cup contender – and that is on a line where his scoring is entirely mitigated by being a shutdown center. I know years back people drooled over the possibility of seeing Eric Staal and Rick Nash together – and now Nash is not the same player he was then but Jordan Staal + Rick Nash could be 2/3s of a great shutdown line. Big fan of targeting the veteran winger this summer.
The Slavin stat was the other one I was a bit surprised about but not really after thinking about it. Overall I hate to say it but for Slavins first two seasons he kind of looked like a god out there almost NEVER making mistakes and getting the better of almost every matchup, but this year is his first true DOWN year in the NHL. Considering it is still just his 3rd season and he has put together two very fine ones prior I am not worried about him. Even in a down year he looks at worst like a #3/4 dman – so to me with his cap hit and age he is still a lock to lead the top 4.
I have also noticed that in Slavin’s first two years he pretty much won every battle with his stick – and I think in his 3rd year players have the book on him and he has been forced to use his body more to win battles. He actually is pretty decent at it even if its not pretty, but maybe physically his body is making an adjustment to the greater physical play and it is taking a toll on him. Hopefully after another strong summer training he will be ready to play more physical.
The same comment goes for Hanifin who had stated after his rookie season he needed to be stronger and more physical – I have seen it in glimpses but still not consistently. Many of the canes dmen have the bodies and abilities to be more hard and punishing to play against and I’d like to see the d-corps take that step next season. The skating is great, the active sticks are great, the transition out of the zone is usually great, i’d just like to see them be harder to play against when they are forced to defend without the puck.
Two or three seasons ago the Nordstrom-Staal-Nestrasil line was exactly as you described and I think did not let in a 5×5 goal for something like 6 weeks in the middle of the season, all the while being slotted against the top or second line of the bad guys. That’s the year Nesty broke his back and was never the same afterwards.
Yes I do envision Staal leading a line much like that one – I just have higher hopes OFFENSIVELY for that sort of line. Also the line you reference was not just the #1 defensive line but unfortunately the #1 line period. I have hopes that an elite Staal line could be a 2nd line while Terevainen, Aho + ? form a top “scoring” line. I believe if Staal lined up with Lindholm and Nash for example that line could provide elite defense but also 40+ pts for each player.
I think the Holy Grail for the top 6 for the Hurricanes is:
–Team adds a top-end scorer to go with Aho and Teravainen such that it finally has a true top scoring line with at least 2 players in the 80-point range and the third player either there or otherwise at least at 70 points.
–Jordan Staal centers a 2nd line that is an elite shutdown line not that unlike the Nestrasil/Staal/Nordstrom line from a couple years back with with at least modest scoring ability. I could see either Justin Williams or Elias Lindholm fitting as RW on this line and helping drive possession into the offensive zone. (The best defense is playing very little defense.) But the missing piece is having a left wing who fits the bill defensively but also brings a playmaking ability that boosts the line’s scoring. Aho could work but the issue is that the team is short right now.
I think the team is short a legitimate top line offensive player to pair with Aho and Teravainen and short a defensively capable LW who also has playmaking skills to boost offense for Staal’s line.
Skinner has legitimate top line scoring capabilities, but I am not sure he really fits in either slot. I guess that is a whole separate conversation.
This is why my Kane or RNH for the first line (depending on where Aho should play) and our Canadian friend Mr. Max on the second line would work so well … now it’s only a matter of convincing the gM to convince these guys and their teams. 😉
I think Skinner for Max and trading our first round picks (if the Canadiens is higher than the canes) is a reasonable deal and the team must be able to either lure Kane as a free agent, or take advantage of the Oilers salary cap situation to fleece the team of RNH, or take the risk with Dreiseitel. The Oilers are too top heavy and they do not have enough cap space to put together the necessary support cast for their star players.
I think if the two difference makers can be added on the first two lines that the Canes can create a pretty formitable bottom 6 with JW, Mcginn, Rask, Necas, Voegele, Zykov and whoever we decide to retain from the current crew.
We could even bring Ned up to play on the 4th line, he has about as many goals as Nordstrom and could step in as a backup goalie.
Because we are a team that relies on stick work in the defensive zone I am always interested in the takeaway stats. As usual we have 3 Canes in the top 20 in the league. This year Skinner (with 84) is second only to McDavid and well above 3rd. He was also second 2 years ago. Slavin, who was second last year, is tied for 10th this year. And Faulk is tied for 17th.
We’re #1 in the league in Face-off Win% & we are the least penalized team.
We’re top 5 in Takeaway/Giveaway % and shots taken.
We are at or near the bottom in goalie Save%, Overtime losses, even strength goals for and Shooting%.
Really no surprises here and anyone could draw their own conclusions. We’re a puck possession team. The positive stats are partly due to Bill Peters coaching style/philosophy, but is he really responsible for the negative stats – very low goalie save % and very low shot % ???
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Well, his style focuses on shot suppression, but it doesn’t really do a good job at quality shot suppression. Whether it’s primarily his fault or not though, he is the COACH. He is directly responsible for the team’s performance over the course of the season. And if the roster isn’t really a fit for what he want’s to do, it’s a heck of a lot easier to change a coach to someone more conducive to our talent, than it is to change a whole roster.
As for the shot percentage? That’s just a lack of someone who naturally plays in front of the net. With as much as we throw the puck at the goalie from every concievable angle, one would imagine that someone specializing in deflections and goalfront play would really set that off.
Great to see others chiming in with stats and that Canes interest is alive even during a basketball weekend and with the team sputtering a bit.
All of it is interesting, but the very simple on Skinner’s shooting percentage is interesting. The tough question is whether that is just random luck to a large degree, if Skinner’s finishing is a notch lower or if he just is not getting as good of chances compared to last year.
Skinner’s history has always been up and down, from year to year. Remember, he finished with 16 goals in his last 16 games, or something like that. That is an unsustainable streak, and yet we used it as a base to say he can score 30-35 or more regularly. He is pretty much where he was last year without that stretch. I think there is information there.
I agree here. Skinner is a solid player who in a great year can get you probably near 40 goals, but overall I see as someone who if healthy can go for anywhere between 20-35 goals and 40-65 points depending on the season. All while being a passable defender and one of the few offensive players who can legitimately create their own scoring chances. As long as his next contract is actually somewhat similar in cap hit to his previous one I think he is a valuable piece moving forward.