An important starting point for what follows is to note that the Carolina Hurricanes are in a very good place right now definitely with the potential to do more. Most importantly, the team advanced to the next round which at the end of the day is all that matters during the playoffs. But past that there are a number of positives coming out of the first round. The team’s top line was dominant in the Rangers series, and Sebastian Aho found a higher playoff gear. In a series where goaltending was expected to be a disadvantage, both Canes netminders were phenomenal. And though the depth scoring was a bit light, the Canes were able to compete four lines deep at forward with the fourth line of Jordan Martinook, Morgan Geekie and Brock McGinn being especially impressive. So sure I am going to nitpick a bit as a devil’s advocate down below, but let’s be very clear that this is not a story of impending doom.
But today’s Daily Cup of Joe does look at a few potential Achilles’ heels for the Carolina Hurricanes despite the team’s first-round success.
The blue line
Jaccob Slavin and Sami Vatanen
Being a bit contrarian given current sentiment and putting it bluntly, Sami Vatanen is overslotted as a first pairing defenseman. He just does not have the straight line speed or lateral mobility to consistently defend top end forwards. That issue was buried a bit in the first two games that saw the Canes forecheck minimize the pressure on the defense. But a little bit in the Washington exhibition game and in a bigger way on in game three against the Rangers, the issue was apparent. Vatanen twice had players beat him with speed and in case draw a penalty and in the other case have a break to the net. In addition, there were two plays were he was unable to move across quickly to cover mishaps by Slavin. Against a top-tier scoring line, I think he will be a bit overmatched defending from the defensive blue line one on one against speed. In addition, Slavin plays an aggressive style that sees him up into the neutral zone at times. His judgment is generally pretty good, but playing with Vatanen shows the importance of having a partner who can slide across sometimes to help patch a hold. That ability was the hallmark of Slavin and Pesce together. Both were aggressive stepping up to take away time and space in the neutral zone, and both were incredibly good at reading and reacting when his partner got caught a bit too far forward.
In a good playoff lineup, I think Vatanen is a tremendous #5 defenseman or a capable #4 who pairs well with a partner with good wheels and read/react ability. Add Vatanen’s power play ability, and he is a great #4/#5 defenseman. This problem could be solved quickly if Dougie Hamilton is ready to go for the next series. That would rework the Canes blue line and slot Vatanen better to match his skill set.
Haydn Fleury and Jake Gardiner
Despite Brind’Amour’s attempt to hide them a bit and pick match ups, this duo also had some issues in game 3 once the Canes forecheck dissipated a bit and forced the defensemen to do a bit more. Interestingly, I think Gardiner and Vatanen are somewhat similar. Both are competent or better offensively and on the power play. Both have played in the top 4 in the past. But both I think are also #4/#5 type defensemen. Gardiner like Vatanen seems to lack the mobility to defend one on one against the rush with speed. If Hamilton does return, would Brind’Amour consider sitting Gardiner and playing Fleury with Vatanen? Regardless, this is another pairing that could be an Achilles’ heel.
But again, a Dougie Hamilton return helps immensely by reslotting the blue line and adding depth and speed.
The forwards
The need for production/depth scoring
The positives coming out of the Rangers’ series are the elite play by the top line, the strong play in their role and contribution from the fourth line and the general ability for all four lines to be competitive. That is a solid foundation for the depth needed to go deep in the playoffs. But at the same time, the Canes really did not get much actual production from the middle of the lineup. From the six forwards in the middle of the lineup, the Canes received only two goals (Necas and Foegele) in three games. Projected over an 82-game season, the group of six would average only nine goals over an 82-game season. Though the first line production is obviously welcome, the Hurricanes were very top-heavy in terms of scoring in the first round.
This situation will also be interesting to watch. Vincent Trocheck was much more snake bit than unproductive in the first round. He played well and seemed to be on the brink of scoring regularly. I continue to think that getting a second scoring line going will be critical to making it deep into the playoffs.
What say you Canes fans?
1) In the name of not getting too high after the sweep of the Rangers, what do you think about the potential Achilles’ heels that I suggested?
2) Does anyone have additional potential weaknesses for the Canes coming out of the first round win?
Go Canes!
I’ve caught glimpses of the games, I was either working or it was late but, man, it was fun to see the Canes blow the Rangers away (figuratively).
I agree on Vatanen, he is either low mobility or not in fantastic shape. In game 3 it started to show significantly. Hamilton needs to get back for this D to be up to par with higher octane competition like the Crapitals.
Gardner has always been a weakness for this organization. As much as we were excited, myself included, this signing turned out to be a a dudd. Fleury actually played quite well in the series, or what I saw.
I am confused about the forwards Matt. 2 goals in 3 games would equate to around 35 goals over the season, not 9. Is there something I am not getting?
The centiment is correct, we need to see a bit more out of the middle 6, but also the sample size is small, in any given game we need a player or a line ro sie up. Question is, when the top line is having a tough game, will someone else be able to step up and be that guy or that line. This wasn’t tested in thi series, but it will be.
Nino has not had the reatest of series, Staal has not been the greatest either, not based on what I saw, but the rest of the guys did more or less what was expected, and I think they will be ok. Vinnie will get one before too long, I feel pretty sure about it.
I don’t know if it was crazy refereeing or if the Canes really have to figure out the penalty trouble. The PK cannot remain this good, especially against higher end offensive power, if you take 7 penalties against a good team they will get 2 to 3 past your goalie and that is a sizeable hole to dig.
1. Canes played better than I expected. Still the D has occasional lapses and scoring is always worth discussing. You have often said results matter. Trocheck has been absent from the scoresheet too often. He looks good, but so did Luostarinen. He needs goals and assists to be a true 2C. Slavin takes time to adjust. He and Hamilton were often average for the first half of 18/19. Once Hamilton was injured the top pairing was on the ice when breakdowns occurred.
2). Not really.
Breezy. Matt’s math produces 2 goals every 3 games. So 54 goals over a season. 54 divide by each of the middle six forwards is 9 goals apiece.
Aah, gotcha! That makes sense and, no, isn’t sufficient production.
Again, the sample size is too small for me to be freaking out right now, but we need to see more out of Vinnie, JW and Staal. I am sure a certain someone catches fire if we play the Caps, he has done it in the past.
On Trocheck. I remember watching the Canes play the Panthers and notice how that guy always had a lot of hustle but how it hardly ever translated to a goal.
I was not a fan of any of the deadline trades (I was in St. Lucia during deadline day so barely caught the announcements when I had wi-fi in the lobby, hockey is great but in St. Lucia there are more fun things to do).
I may be wrong on Skjei, it was fun to see him come to live, but as for the rest, they have not forced me to change my mind yet; fortunately there’s still a lot of games left, hopefully.
I would try Foegele with Necas-Trocheck. If that doesn’t work try moving Turbo to get a 2nd scoring line.
Looks like Rod really likes Nino. He played quite a bit at the end of the games. He looks to have a 4-line scoring touch right now.
I hope Vatanen’s slowness is from coming back from injury, I don’t remember him being this slow in the past.
Getting Dougie back will be huge. He practiced today. The top 4 in the east are like orders of magnitude better than the Rangers.
Will the Pens make it? I didn’t think the Habs had a chance, Danault looks really good. Price and Weber have been great. Geno doesn’t look confident right now.
1.A I did not read any of you game summaries, I admit. But I would definitely not get too high – I thought the Rangers were a hot mess on the ice. I didn’t see any structure to what they were doing and they were basically “meh” for the most past in all 3 games and, at times, were very error prone. The improvement for us was “forecheck” – I was on record as saying I didn’t expect to see it appear because we hadn’t seen it for much of the season. I was glad to be proven wrong. We also avoided the big whoopsies in our d-zone.
1.B I think I had a higher opinion of Vatanen that most here – so I am probably wrong in my assessment! LOL! But I think it is a moot point as Hamilton appears to be getting ready to play in the next round. That leaves the Fleury/Gardiner decision. I think Fleury has earned his spot with his play but I espect he will sit – Gardiner runs the second team PP and they won’t bench him.
I also agree with your assessment of the 4th line – they are just awesome. And I agree on the weakness of secondary scoring. I will be curious to see if Dzingel is brought in, perhaps on Trocheck’s wing. Trocheck seems so close to being a big contributor – I think a DTN line could be dynamite. It won’t happen because RBA prefers the grit-and-grind of McGinn and Foegele.
2. I really think our biggest weakness will be our rust vs. the other team’s rest by the time the next round comes around. Our next big weakness has been all those stick penalties – we have to stay out of the box if we are playing either BOS or WAS (and one of those two teams surprisingly seems likely.
For me the biggest worry is rust—with Hamilton. I remember (mostly because I was too pessimistic) that the first pairing struggled a lot for almost 30 games, to the point that Slavin was reunited with Pesce in December 2018. Hamilton is an amazing offensive talent, but as was shown in the Washington series last year, he can lose all confidence in his own zone. On top of that, Slavin, for whatever reason, struggles with changing partners. After Hamilton went down this season it was slightly noticeable, now with Vatanen it is more noticeable. So reuniting with Hamilton could go either way. If they struggle, either Boston or Washington will feast.
As far as Gardiner, despite others’ concern with Vatanen, the one place he has looked good is the power play. So benching Gardiner wouldn’t create any real downside. That said, my guess is RBA sits Fleury because that seems to be the precedent.