Suddenly, we are 46 games into the 2019-20 NHL season. Though I still feel like the Hurricanes are still a work in progress in many ways, Head Coach Rod Brind’Amour has a good amount of run time with the current group. The team is in much better position than it was at this time last season, but with the Metropolitan Division’s success, it does not appear that the Canes will be exempt from another dog fight down the stretch. And with the stretch run right around the corner, the time is now to figure out how to get the most from this group in the final 36 games.
No doubt, priority one will always be to win the current game, but I also think Brind’Amour has some work to do sorting things out in the coming weeks.
Below is a short list of things that I think Brind’Amour is considering right now.
Goalies
James Reimer has done an admirable job in the backup role spelling Petr Mrazek regularly and being productive in the process. But as the season progresses, I have to think Brind’Amour will be watching to see if Mrazek can find a rhythm, hit a higher gear and take on a greater share of the starts just like he did in 2018-19 when the team surged up into the playoffs. By no means are we at the point, where one goalie can just run the schedule, but at the point where Mrazek gets hot (if he does), Reimer could be shifted to only playing in back-to-back sets.
Defense
The big watch point on defense continues to be the #4 slot next to Brett Pesce. Brind’Amour has been incredibly patient holding out hope that Jake Gardiner would acclimate, reach a higher level of play and assume that role after a really tough start in a Canes uniform. Gardiner has been in that slot for a couple weeks without standing out in a bad way, so perhaps Brind’Amour is being rewarded for his patience. After seeing what the downside for Gardiner can be, I think Brind’Amour would be thrilled to have Don Waddell add a player like Alec Martinez or Sami Vatanen closer to the trade deadline, but for right now it is for Brind’Amour to figure out with what he was on the current roster. If Gardiner hits another tough stretch, Brind’Amour will be forced to consider the possibility that the steadier Edmundson trumps the risk/reward with Gardiner. Regardless of additions or how Brind’Amour handles it, that #4 slot as the potential to be a fatal flaw for the 2019-20 season.
Forwards
At forward, the combination of Justin Williams’ signing and a couple players yet to really click in 2019-20 makes the task figuring out the line combinations that get the maximum from the group. I think doing that involves a couple interrelated projects.
The top line
Thus far, Brind’Amour has also shown incredible patience with Nino Niederreiter. The initial struggling version of Niederreiter was brutal. He was not converting on scoring chances and then seemingly with his heart in the right place trying to help elsewhere, he had a horrible propensity to take bad obstruction type penalties trying to win puck battles or forecheck. But more recently Niederreiter’s game has been better even if not incredibly productive on the score sheet. On the one hand, it sometimes feels like he is on the verge of a break out. But in a results business, Brind’Amour can only wait so long, especially with having other options. Williams finished the 2018-19 season strong playing the slot Niederreiter is in on the top line. And if Brind’Amour wanted to go a bit more top heavy, adding Svechnikov has the potential to make a juggernaut. The top line has been a bit stagnant of late. Brind’Amour has options to consider to try to jump start it.
Justin Williams and the dominoes
Williams could start on the fourth line to ease his way into the lineup with lighter minutes, but at some point he figures to slot into the top 9. Where he lands could have a couple domino effects that are not what many might expect. If Williams bumped Niederreiter off the top line, could he actually slide all the way to healthy scratch. The third and fourth lines seem to have good chemistry, so I am not sure inserting Williams necessary sees each player step down a rung on the ladder.
The tough question for Brind’Amour with regard to Niederreiter if he gets bumped is if his (yet unrealized) offensive upside could bolster depth scoring or if maybe he just is not a great fit for the slots on the lower lines.
Brind’Amour also needs to decide how much he likes Dzingel/Haula/Necas and McGinn/Wallmark/Martinook as is versus swapping in a displaced player.
My 2 cents
In goal, I do not think there is a rush to tilt the crease time in Mrazek’s direction. I think this can wait a bit with Reimer earning points with his starts, but I do think if Mrazek gets hot that I would ride him a bit more after the All-Star break.
On defense, I would give Gardiner his chance to win and keep the #4 slot. I think Edmundson is steadier and still the fall back if Gardiner struggles again, but I think because Gardiner’s ceiling is so much higher that he is ideally the guy. More than anything, I would be hoping that Waddell spends his last trade bullet to get me a good plan B for the #4 defense slot.
At forward, I would first and foremost be trying to build the best top scoring line I can. The team has enough depth that doing so does not handicap the rest of the lineup. Unless Niederreiter breaks through soon, I would consider trying Svechnikov and/or Williams on the top line. What works best for maximizing the top line would then have a waterfall effect to the lower lines.
What say you Canes fans?
1) If you were Rod Brind’Amour, what would you be watching most closely and/or working on right now to try to get the most from the current group?
2) What would you be doing for line combinations at forward?
3) What would you be doing on defense?
Go Canes!
I’ve really liked the play of the Wallmark-McGinn-Marty line and I think it would be a mistake to scratch one of those guys when Williams returns, unless they are nursing an injury.
It may be a tough pill to swallow for these guys, but I think the first two forwards who should be a healthy scratch for Williams would be Dzingel or Nino. Williams fills a similar role as top 9 winger with scoring upside and plays the PP but who is not a penalty killer. Also, both Dzingel and Nino have been light on scoring goals this season and they are much less valuable on the ice when they aren’t scoring.
I have to agree on all counts. The second PP unit becomes significantly better replacing Nino with Williams.
I’m less worried about individual players than team buy-in on playing the right way. This team is capeable of playing a great team game, but too often this season has taken the bait and gone with firewagon hockey. That isn’t going to work.
If there is an individual player that can and needs to make a difference it’s Svechnikov. His play has bordered on arrogant recently. He’s back to lazy stick infractions and selfish play is leaking into his game. Yes, he’s good, but the Canes can’t win in the strong Metro without his complete buy in. No more through the legs BS on breakaways. Make the right play. He’s the Canes most dominant player and somehow Brind’Amour has to get through to him to not ruin it with selfish BS.
Tonight’s game is the most important game in a long time. A loss tonight and the Canes are in trouble. Philly is looking strong and Columbus is surging as well. Another loss in the Metro would be a disaster. These guys need to show they can beat teams they need to beat. To date they’re a team that beats up on the Western Conference and wilts against their rivals. Time to step it up!
Goal ; both Mrazek and Reimer have been positive in the performance above expected goals metric, basically meaning they’ve outperformed what they were expected to based on the chances being given up by the Canes team defense. I think the Canes see this as a defense problem but a goalie problem. They should roll with the tandem and know that Ned is backup option if needed. That get us to the defense…
Defense; spot on above, the LHD spot on the second pairing next to Pesce is the failure point. Gardiner was the plan, and might be next year, but clearly he’s struggling with something (his skating looks terrible, laboring to me). If I’m Waddell, I’m looking to create a full shutdown 2nd pairing line – but I don’t agree Martinez or Vatanen are the answer. I think they should go a pit better and shoot for J.Brodin from the Wild. It might be more expensive, but he’s an elite defensive defenseman, and you could put that pairing of Brodin/Pesce against anyone in the league if needed. This pushes out Fleury, TVR, or Edmundson (likely Fleury who deserves a shot at mins with a different team).
Forwards; I think Svech/Aho/TT needs to be the top scoring line to inject scoring and high danger chances into the mix. I think you could have Foegele/Staal/McGinn in the long term as a solid checking defensive line, with Martinook mixing in as needed. That then puts Haula, Dzingle, Necas, Williams, Nino, and Wallmark into a blender as the other two lines – Haula and Wallmark being the centers – Martinook as emergency if needed.
Also like Brodin as premium version of #4 D possibly available. He has the 2-year term that I prefer over a pure 2019-20 rental and would be a notch better than the other 2. Tougher question is price…My thinking is that the other 2 come for more of a rental price whereas Brodin might require a higher-end pick or prospect. Regardless, it will be interesting to see if Waddell does in fact spend his last bullet to add on defense despite the seeming logjam of quantity there.