As a fan of a team that has struggled again this season, one can easily fall into the trap of taking the bright side of players and expecting too much from them for the next season. The problem is exacerbated by the fact that the Hurricanes reference point for as far as most can remember is that of a set of players who were not good enough to make the playoffs.
The downside of doing this can be overslotting players relative to a full evaluation and where they would fit on a good hockey team.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe looks past the optimistic side of a few players and owns up to limitations in their game.
Noah Hanifin
The strides that he made offensively during the 2017-18 season are encouraging and definitely a step forward. But despite gains on the offensive side of the puck, he will still exit his third season in the NHL as a third pairing defenseman. When pressed by higher-end NHL forward lines, he still just is not there in terms of every shift soundness defensively in terms of sorting things out defensively.
Sebastian Aho
First, I think Sebastian Aho belongs at center going forward, and I also think he is already where he needs to be as an offense-driving NHL center. But maybe not surprisingly for a 20-year old, Aho’s play without the puck is not yet at the same level defensively especially at transition points, in the neutral zone and when situations require adjustments from finding and marking a single player. Aho is a smart player who should learn quickly on the job, but he does have another level to reach in terms of his two-way play.
Elias Lindholm
After a couple years struggling probably simply because he was rushed to the NHL level, Lindholm has built his game and become a well-rounded and capable top 9 forward. And he has played impressively at the center position during his recent audition. But on a team that is already slotting too many scoring-light players at the center position, I have to wonder if he is an answer at center given the team’s current mix of players. The good version of Lindholm at center does not look significantly different than the right wing version of him and his 43 points through 80 games. He has not scored a goal in March, and his 51-point pace is not significantly different from his prior pace.
Roland McKeown
His steady progression toward being NHL-ready is a positive, and his strong season at the AHL level suggests he could be ready to fill an NHL role for the 2018-19 season, but I think those who think he could step into a second pairing role are putting the cart before the horse. The challenge for McKeown is balancing his safe and sound that rarely makes big mistakes with being aggressive enough against good NHL scorers. McKeown, like Fleury to some degree, has a tendency to just keep backing up when facing speed coming at him. He too regularly backs up to the point where he gives attacking forwards on the wing room enough to cut across which makes for a tough situation to defend for the goalie and the rest of the defense. I think McKeown is capable of being a depth defenseman for the 2018-19 season but at least in current form is not ready for more than that.
Cam Ward
I am on record as giving Cam Ward high marks for his intended role as a backup in 2017-18. But ceiling on work load at 34 years old and a level of play that is more good backup than every night starter sets a limit for him as a good backup at this stage of his NHL career.
Justin Faulk
Regardless of what he does offensively, the current version of Justin Faulk just is not a top 4 defenseman defensively right now. The biggest issue is quickness. As such, I do not think it is as simple as Faulk finding a higher gear, busting out of a slump or whatever. He needs to somehow find another step or two quickness/acceleration-wise. Until he does, I think his ceiling is that of a good offensive #5 defenseman who can sub in the top 4 but not succeed there on an every-game basis.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Which of these limitations do you disagree with?
2) Who has others for players not noted?
Go Canes!
1. Hanifin: Taking off the rose colored glasses which is the premise we are operating under here and he is a third pairing defenseman right now IMO. Paired with VanReimsdyke has seemed to help his game, but he isn’t at a level where he should be considered untouchable when considering trades.
2. Aho: Seems to me just from the observation level of a fan that putting Aho at center has put a damper on his offensive game (scoring goals) while not materially helping his teammates. IMO (as an less than amateur scout) the move to center in theory was for his playmaking to help line mates blossom into scorers. Looking at the type player he is that theory would seem to be a sound one. IMO it has turned out so far to be just theory. We are diminishing his goal scoring ability and not getting (and IMO will not get) increased goal scoring from his line mates. Put him back on wing.
3. Lindholm: A third line player no matter whether on the wing or center. I like his game on the wing better. It seems to me his creativity and passing abilities come to the fore on the wing.
4. McKeoun: Not enough offensive ability to be on either of the top two pairings IMO. Possibly a sound third pairing defenseman, but will be a drag on the offense while on the ice.
5. Cam Ward: I use both first and last names out of respect for this player. How do you gauge a goalie who plays behind such a porous defense that gives up grade A giveaway scoring chances as a routine. Ward, at this point in his career, would be a sound backup if he plays about every 3rd or 4th game. So for him to have value, we need a number 1 horse goaltender. If we expect Ward to be that number 1 horse, forget it.
6. Faulk: If he had his offensive game going, he would have value. The problem is he does not have it going. It almost seems to me he appears as if he is trying to play himself off of this team (get traded). If not (probably not), he surely appears to be lazy on the ice and to a degree immobile. I hate to say those things about any player, but something isn’t right with him. Hopefully I will find out that he has played all year with a fractured leg, pulled groin muscle, or something of the like which has caused the deterioration in his game. I, in my infinite wisdom, all past off-season clamored against including him in any trade for a scoring forward. This was against some other contributors to this site who were for such a move. Well all I have to say now is cow meat hopefully is not fattening…Caw…Caw…Caw.
That’s crow meat, not cow meat.
I like cowmeat! Never tried crow (eaten puffin though, it’s tasty)!
Aho is a great kid but I feel the Canes management/media is trying hard to market him as the next Crosby (or at least close). I think this attention has been detrimental to his play lately. He’s trying to figure out playing center in the NHL while being micked up and having everyone from his grandmother to his nurse give interviews about him. I think he’s been distracted and not on his game lately. It could be figuring out center, but I als think the attention is difficult. Leave the kid alone, let him work out his game, he doesn’t need the overhyping. I know the team is desperate for feelgood stories at this point, but I think they may be damaging a good player with all the hype right now.
Agree with the rest of the assessments.
Slaven deserves most of the hype he’s getting. He’s not elite super first pairing defenseman (bu a solid first pairing) and he’s human, he even makes mistakes especially on the powerplay, but he definitely is a minor miracle for the Canes scouting staff.
I think the collection of Noah, Fleury and Faulk have fallen significantly short of our expectations of them for this season. I hope there is a logical eason for Faulk’s poor play this season, ideally one that can be addressed so we can hope to see a different Faulk at training camp.
If he needs psychiatrists, personal trainers, massage therapists, 3 weeks in Vegas during the off season or a spiritual retreat to the tropics, whatever it takes he needs to rediscover his mojo.
Matt, I agree with most of your assessments on the players. With Faulk, I think the game has “passed him by” To me it is an issue of quickness with him. The game has gotten incrementally quicker and faster and he isn’t able to keep up. I think he makes the same decisions he has always made, but his relative lack of quickness means he is late on a pinch or is faced with pressure where he previously had time to make a good decision. That may have affected his offensive game and confidence. Not sure if he can improve in this area, but if he can’t then he is a bottom pairing D as you suggest.
In general, I think our justified frustration prevents us from appreciating how young our team is. Its hard to play well in the NHL and our young team is prone to make the mistakes that young players often make. Many of our guys did not have the benefit of playing in the AHL and are learning on the fly. When you have a team full of these type of players, its easy to see why we have the defensive lapses that continue to plague us. Sure other teams work in rookies and young players and they do well. But much easier to break into the league on a team like the Flyers that has a good veteran core than on a team of young players. We can see the benefit to the PK by having guys like Hainsey and McClement – not great, but veteran players who know how to minimize mistakes. Hopefully this situation improves with more experience, but it may not. It may also explain why BP is so reluctant to call up even more young players and begs for NHL talent. RF’s preaching of patience was probably based on his understanding of what it would take. If we want to make playoffs next year, we need to replace our UFAs with veteran guys who can help our young team learn.
agree with Hanny and Faulk. For Aho, I think he should be center. I think part of the problem is he (his line) is the top line now, so teams can focus on him. If there was more balance on the team, I think that would lift some of the pressure from him and he could be used strategically. Just think, if (wow, there’s that “if” word again!) we had a line where skinny was actually our top threat, Staal’s line shutting down the top line, then we could use Aho’s line strategically (like we supposedly do with Skinny)…wouldn’t that be nice.
If the Canes go out and acquire one or two difference maker forwards and if Necas development moves along the optimistic side of his trajectory the Canes might actually be able to do just that.
It all depends on what, if any, forwards are obtained.
A first line winger could help Aho and TT adjust (I think Zykov has played as well or better than we could have asked for, but that does not automatically make him the first line winger the Canes need).
I call it firstline, it could also be that opportunistic third line.
It looks like J Staal, Williams and McGinn may be the entire second line with modest scoring upside that the Canes need, at least based on their most recent performances.
An opportunistic scoring third line could be assembled from Skinner, Necas, and the best of Rask or Lindholm or Zykov or someone brought in from outside the organization. The Canes should have enough pieces to construct something decent.
Then use some combination of Rask or Lindholm or Walmark on a significantly upgraded 4th line with Voegele and another winger, maybe Morgan Jegi.
As we can see the Canes have a log jam of bottom 6 forwards with pressure coming from the AHL.
The top job of an incoming GM is to trim that group a bit and turn it into one or two magic additions on forward and a veteran addition on defense.
, with an eye to keeping young players that could replace Williams and eventually Jordan Staal as they mov.
Well now. Here we are, facing the off-season. We are critiquing our players performance and preparing to decide whom to keep, whom to trade, and whom to non-renew. We are basing our assumptions on statistics alone. There is no human element factored in any of this.
What is the human element?
I would say that it was demonstrated perfectly last night. One of our very few gritty guys was used to paint the boards last night. Roland McKeown jumped right in to fight the perpetrator. The rather gritty and skilled at fighting perp refused to fight back. He wasn’t afraid to fight back. He just knew that Roland is not a fighter. Plus he knew that he was not going to be penalized for boarding the injured McGinn.
An experienced enforcer would have waited until the perp was back in the gameand not looking for trouble, and then nail him with a mid-ice check that would hopefully hurt like the devil.
We need such people on each line. We need a rugged and cranky defenseman to stay at home while his offense-minded partner does his thing.
If and when we trade our small and skilled players to another team, they will blossom and some of us will wonder why.
Matt, I agree with all of your limitations but with some additional comments.
Hanifin – I think he slots as a 2nd pairing defenseman if he is paired with an experienced and shutdown partner.
Aho – his position next season will likely depend on the new players we acquire after the overhaul. I like him at C but not 1C yet. Yes, defensively he is still learning but note that he is Plus 4 this season.
Lindholm – I agree 100%. I prefer him at RW rather than C.
McKeown – I think he is our 6th/7th D-man next year. He deserves a promotion from the AHL. This sends the right message to our prospects that they will be rewarded for success, and not log-jammed in the system/organization.
Ward – I think he is more than a backup; he can split duties with another capable netminder.
Faulk – I think his biggest issue is his decision-making not his quickness. He is strong and an excellent skater with a good shot. Making him co-captain certainly back-fired. I will withhold further comment until after the season since there may be an issue we don’t know about (Rask is case in point).
Bill Peters – he can opt out of next season’s final contract year, reportedly within 10 days after the end of this season. No good businessman would remove the coach prior to that deadline and have to pay $1.6M unnecessarily. My guess is that BP will not opt out.
This will probably be the most eventful off-season in our history.
Agree about Hanifin. Offensively gifted, but defensively clueless. Currently a third paring and PP guy. Not sure if he even cares to play defense. Hope he does, otherwise he looks like a Mike Green type of player.
Aho will be fine. Not sure if he is a center or wing, but that’s the least of the Canes worries. He is a player that will be fun to watch over the next several years.
McKeown looks OK for a rookie. Has tended to panic at times, and misses too many passes for my liking. Looks like an NHL player in the making, but not a top tier defenseman at this point.
Lindholm is so disappointing. Twenty Five games without scoring a goal. No offensive instincts at all. Bottom 6 centerman or wing.
Ward is a backup at best.
Faulk has had a rough year. Maybe he has been hurt. I totally disagree with the idea he doesn’t have the quickness he needs. He and Slavin are the quickest D on the team. Faulk’s issues are with his decision making. He comes from a long line of USA NTDP defensemen that never seem to learn to play defense.
Slavin: All this jumping in the play has yielded little results on the scoreboard and taken the Canes best defensive defenseman out of the defensive zone. I think his change in style of play is a big mistake. I blame this on the coaching staff. Salvin should do what he does best and play D.
Fluery is a rookie and has done pretty well. Had good and bad moments. Fluery is a guy that needs to work on footspeed. Currently he has to make solid defensive decisions because he doesn’t have the quickness or speed to catch up. He needs to decide what kind of player he is going to be. He’s a big strong kid that could be a rock on the blueline for a long time. Up to him to improve.