On Wednesday, Canes and Coffee posted a Coffee Shop article with a set of polls with only ‘stay’ or ‘go’ options for each of the 2017-18 Carolina Hurricanes forwards. Most of the results matched what I expected, but the magnitude of a couple votes did surprise me. If you are reading this early on Thursday, check back at lunchtime or later for part 2 which looks at goalies, defensemen and staff.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe offers my quick thoughts on the forward group.
Building the top 9
Core
My core at forward is only Jordan Staal, Sebastian Aho, Teuvo Teravainen and Justin Williams right now. Jordan Staal is a top 6 forward capable of lining up against and quieting elite NHL scoring lines. That is very hard to replace. Sebastian Aho is an obvious choice, and Teuvo Teravainen has chemistry with Aho and makes two out of the three needed for a true top scoring line. Justin Williams is not so much untouchable because his skill set cannot be replaced. Rather, I just think the team needs all the leadership it can get as it trying yet again to rise up from a playoff miss in 2018-19.
Would require a good return to pry them loose
This group includes Elias Lindholm and Brock McGinn. In the next category, I include a couple players who I would begrudgingly consider trading as part of a deal that added the offensive catalyst that the team needs. McGinn has grown to become a solid depth forward who rates high for intensity and consistency in that regard and also scores at a decent clip for his role. By no means would I be looking to trade McGinn but for the right deal he is replaceable and therefore someone who I would begrudgingly let go. The same goes for Lindholm who slots a bit higher. Lindholm is a capable, well-rounded top 9 forward. On a team that is light at right wing looking into the future, he fits well in the top 9 for 2018-19 and beyond. But as a mid-40s scorer who does not really excel at anything, I would also categorize him as a player that I would consider giving up in the right deal.
Unique cases
Jeff Skinner is easily the most perplexing player on the Hurricanes roster for me. On the one hand, he has the potential to reach 40 goals, and what’s more he seems to be able to do it as a lone ranger without much help. If the Hurricanes had a legitimate top scoring line that did not include Skinner, might he be perfect to provide a huge amount of secondary scoring without needing high-end line mates to do it? And though I question the reality of it, the idea that maybe Skinner is capable of even more if surrounded by better talent is intriguing. But the other side of the coin is that Skinner has regressed defensively again in 2017-18. Back are failed back-checking responsibilities and questionable decision-making at times especially in the defensive and neutral zones. In addition, it is not clear that his style of play that holds the puck a ton really meshes with other offensive players well. Finally, it is not clear that he is capable of significantly boosting the play of his line mates or having line mates do the same for him. Especially if his next contract comes in at $7 million or more, I would want a player who not just scores but plays well enough defensively that the scoring translates to a positive goal differential and also who is capable of boosting a couple line mates scoring-wise.
In a summer that features a bunch of huge decisions for the new general manager, making a long-term decision on Jeff Skinner ranks high. As a player set to become an unrestricted free agent after the 2018-19 season, best would be to make a decision next summer and either re-sign him early or otherwise considering moving him while he still has maximum value. To be honest, I am torn on which is the right path.
Victor Rask is another wild card. As another center whose skill set leans defense-first/offense-lite, Rask is easily expendable this summer. The issue is that his $4 million contract is probably close to immovable right now unless the Hurricanes eat a big chunk of it or take a similarly overpriced contract back. As such, I think the smartest move with Rask short-term is to ride forward and hope for a rebound. As positive is that even the struggling version of Victor Rask is a competent bottom half of the roster center, just with too high of a salary. So in that regard, he still fills a roster spot.
The fourth line and depth
Two too many
As much as they are maligned right now which is showing up in the polls right now, I actually think that all of Derek Ryan, Joakim Nordstrom, Lee Stempniak and to a lesser degree Marcus Kruger could be useful in depth roles. But two things in that regard — First is that the Hurricanes do not need four of these depth type players for 2018-19. One of maybe two would be enough to provide experienced players for the bottom of the lineup but also leave room for youth to move up. Second is that the salary needs to be right for these depth roles.
Very likely, Lee Stempniak will be gone to free agency. Though he might be tough to move, I think Marcus Kruger’s days are likely numbered because he just did not work out in 2018-19. That leaves Joakim Nordstrom and Derek Ryan. If their prices stay at over very close to the $1 million mark, I could actually see both players stay to provide depth at a reasonable price. The #13 slot is not one that a team wants to fill with youth who are better-served playing in the AHL than sitting in an NHL press box.
Another unique case
Considered only as an NHL player, Phil Di Giuseppe is a player who could be replaced with AHLers on the way up or an inexpensive free agent signing. So in that regard, he fits with the group of players above. But if the Hurricanes can ink him to a two-way contract such that he provides NHL depth but with the capability to slot in Charlotte at a legitimate AHL price, I think he is worth keeping for that role to provide deep depth with NHL experience on the right kind of contract.
My starting point for a 2018-19 forward lineup
Lineup:
Aho/____/Teravainen
___/Staal/Lindholm
Skinner/Rask/Williams
McGinn/____/_____
Extras: Nordstrom and/or Ryan (if they can be re-signed for about $1 million each)
AHL depth: Di Giuseppe (only if he can be re-signed to a two-way contract such that he can be slotted in the AHL as deep depth)
Gone: Kruger, Stempniak, Jooris (already traded)
That leaves two top 9 slots to be filled with one offensive catalyst/difference-maker from outside the current roster and one slot to be won by a rookie or otherwise McGinn. Similarly, the fourth line should have one or possibly two slots available for AHL players to seize, but the #13 slot will be filled by a capable NHL player if none of the youth can seize the slot.
Go Canes!
I agree with most of your thoughts, however a couple of variations I would consider:
1) I think Lindholm should be part of the core & only be traded if we get an incredible return because he played good at center & can play the wing also giving us versatility that can help in many situations. He already has good chemistry with some of our young core guys & he is cheap right now. (obviously depending on what he asks for in his next deal)
2) Rask should probably be shopped & let’s dump his contract. He doesn’t look engaged anymore & may need a change of scenery not to mention we have a couple of signings we will need the money for.
3) If we go get a true 1C, I think Necas will be able to play 3C next year giving Skinner or whoever is there a real playmaker to help with secondary scoring. I’m not so keen on Aho at center especially if we get a 1C, he will benefit from playing with whoever that is on the first line. Plus on the wing he won’t have to come all the way back leaving him free to do his burn out past defenders for breakaways.
Imagine if we actually get a true 1C & a scorer in the mold of JVR or Hoffman, all that would be left is a true #1 goalie. Go grab those 3 players & we will definitely make the playoffs.
So TD, hope you read this & take some action. You know what we need, now go get it.
Go Canes !!
I am on board with shopping Rask. His $4M cost is high even if he rebounds and is a decent C3, and the $ could be better spent elsewhere. The issue is that I think his return would be almost nothing right now, so with 4 years of contract remaining I am inclined to wait unless a fair return can be had.
I also think the team has bigger fish to fry. I have no idea what, but something needs to happen at goalie, and I also think the top 4 on defense must be solidified somehow. So if Rask fits into the equation to address something else, that would be fine. If not, I would not be inclined to dump him for nothing just yet.
I see what you are saying about Rask. If we do keep him I think he could be great on a fourth line (albeit a very, very expensive fourth liner) with McGinn and someone else, maybe Foegele?, even though I’d like it better if Foegele played in a top 9 role.
Otherwise, if we can’t get Tavares (which for this discussion let’s assume that we don’t get him) and end up trading for a 1C like RNH, I feel like he could be included in a trade for someone like this as an added piece maybe. Although, I’m not sure if he would add any value to the trade or make it so that we would need to take on dead weight from Edmonton.
You literally said everything I was going to say.
I’ve been skeptical all year of Necas making it the NHL next year, but if the Mikes at Canes Cast see him as a shoo in who am I to doubt it. I’ve also been very partial to Lindholm at center and maintain that he and Aho have some chemistry. While maybe not a bonafide 1c, he’s responsible defensively, wins face offs, has a bit of grit to his game and had better finishing ability than Staal. Peters has said Aho is getting his time at center so there are a lot of variables, but if I were sketching out lines for next year I think they’d be:
Aho/Lindy/TT
Goal heavyFA/Staal/Williams
Skinner/Necas/Zykov
McGinn/Rask/?
Nordstrom in the box or possibly on the right wing (have we seen that before?). Scoring woes aside he brings a lot of effort and has proven to be an asset wherever he’s played on the team.
I tend to agree with your player assessments, Matt, but here’s the issue: there is a reason to keep everyone and give this team another chance with the addition of a Top 6 difference-maker.
However, there was something that was obviously not working this year with this core group of players, so if we bring back all of the same group to give them another year – bottom 6 players are only going to make a difference at the margin – then is one additional player, even a good one, going to make that much of a difference? And what if we can’t get that player for whatever reason.
That path for me is the very definition of crazy: doing essentially the same thing and expecting a different result.
Maybe a coaching change will make the difference. It seemed to work for the LAK this year and their offense improved greatly with the same core, but I’m skeptical.
I tend to think at least one player has to go. The tough question is who. And is just one player enough.
If we are going to make progress next year, I think it’s only reasonable to expect some major roster changes and losing some players we like.
I think the big moves that change things is some combination of Skinner, Faulk and Darling (goalies and D ‘stay or go’ coming up today). The hard part is making that happen.
I think moving Skinner and Faulk would make the boldest statement. We are moving out the old guard and moving forward to the next phase.
The first move I would try would be Skinner for Pacioretty. Because as Matt has mentioned before, Pacioretty gives Aho or Necas a talented stable linemate. Since Skinner is younger and both are in contract years it is pretty much an even trade.
Given the past two weeks the team seems bad. But in truth the big moves from the past offseason didn’t work nearly as we all anticipated. There’s no guarantee for any moves made this offseason.
The problem seems to be confidence. For most of the season the Canes were nearly unbeatable when they scored first. I was at the late December Pittsburgh game. Pittsburgh led 1-0 after the first. Carolina and Ward outscored the two time champions 7-0 over the next five periods. Carolina was one of only two teams to beat VGK at home the first two months.
I agree talent is an issue. But not nearly as much as confidence.
Although I agree with your “top 6”, Matt, I am with ct on this one. It is more than one or two pieces – the team’s compete and energy level was up and down all season. Bad play in the defensive and neutral zone – missed assignments, bad passing, lazy play (watch Williams stop skating on one of the Oilers’ goals as an example of that from a player you wouldn’t expect it from). Which player(s) will magically figure out play in front of the net – the number of rebound chances in front of an empty net if we only had someone there – whether positioned or passing through – continued to astound me in the Oilers game.
I actually think the changes won’t necessarily be “try to trade ______” but rather players will be packaged in deals to get other pieces that we need. That is how I see players like Lindholm and McGinn possibly going – also some of our prospects.
But I think our forward corps will be substantially different next year.
I think your prediction is most likely. We’ll see an empty arena early in the year if we start this way.
An assumption: we don’t win the Tavares sweepstakes.
What should happen:
Turbo-Aho-New guy
New guy-Staal-Lindholm
Zykov-Necas-Williams
McGinn-Wallmark-Foegele
2 solid scoring lines with Aho and Necas. Staal is the shutdown line. Wallmark’s line is capable of shutting down and scoring.
We need turnover this year to start a new era. Make a hockey move with Skinner and give away rask.
With Zykov in the system and JVR a likely target, we can afford to move Skinner for an established RW or high potential RW.
Is there any high-end RWs available in FA or that we would potentially target in a trade? All the names I’ve seen discussed are Cs or LWs.
Overall I like your roster but would tweak it slightly:
Patches-Aho-TT
JVR-Staal-Lindholm
Zykov-Necas-Williams
McGinn-Wallmark-Foegele
Highly doubt the new GM (no matter who it is) will maintain the current core “as is”. I’m expecting at least two core pieces to be dealt in exchange for more grit, scoring power and character. This may not be the 1C type we covet, but a few key additions to change the dynamic of the team. Agree the players who may be part of said package include Skinner, Faulk, Lindholm, Darling, Rask and perhaps even Staal (if he requests a change of scenery).
I read these posts and marvel at how easy it is for us to ignore the facts of life. It was mentioned in one post that we should trade Skinner for Pacioretty; straight up. Wow! Do we really think it would be that simple? Maybe Montreal has a higher opinion of Pacioretty than we do; Max for Skinner, Zykov, and our 1st rounder. Or maybe they don’t like Skinner; Max for Aho. Or maybe they don’t respect us and don’t return calls. Or maybe Max says, “I won’t go there.” It’s not going to be as easy and simple as we think it will.
100% agreed that it’s not going to be easy. However, MTL has wanted to move Galchenyuk for almost a year now with no takers so it’s not as if we’re the only one who suffers from I-value-my-player-too-much syndrome. Doing almost any trade is hard. That’s why I think we’ll be lucky to make one big move.
Having said that, David Poile has made 4 huge moves over the last 2 years – Seth Jones for Ryan Johansen, Shea Weber for PK Subban, and pick/prospects for Kyle Turris, and picks/prospects for Ryan Hartman – so it is possible. Give NSH credit for lacking fear.
I know Faulk, Rask (injured), and Skinner have had bad seasons, but I don’t think it’s wise to trade them while their value is low. If we must trade them we should at least let them regain their value so we can actually get fair value for them. Skinner seems to bounce back and forth, having a good season then an off season then he bounces back to have another good season. He almost scored 40 goals last season, something we haven’t gotten from anyone lately including Aho. So I don’t think it makes sense to trade him because then we have to replace that production (at least 20-30 goals) and still add an offensive difference maker. So it makes more sense to keep Skinner and add, than to have to replace his production (even if you do that in a trade) and then have to get a difference maker too. Faulk is a similar case. Yes he’s had an off year, but you can’t easily replace his goal (15+ goals) production from the back end (and right side) either. It at least makes sense to let them bounce back to recoup some trade value.
I completely agree. It makes zero sense to deal these players from a position of weakness. Unfortunately with Rask this makes two straight seasons where he returned negative value on the contract so moving him was going to be impossible regardless of his plummeting value I think. With Skinner and Faulk those are two guys many other NHL teams would be glad to have and I just don’t think dealing them in down years makes sense. They are going into contract seasons so I think if they are going to be traded it makes a lot more sense to move them next season if the Canes are again out of the playoff picture.
I have always said these players are part of the solution when the team adds. I cannot understand the perspective of looking at this “broken” product and saying “well the best way to fix it is to remove things and try new things”. What about trying to add things to the existing product? Ask yourself as a Canes fan – when was the last time you looked at the Hurricanes roster going into the season and said “that is a roster that on paper, including the depth in the minors, should without a doubt make the playoffs”. Maybe 2005-2006, even then the big question was can Martin Gerber really be a starter?
I think the organization should be aiming for that. When you build that sort of quality roster and THEN it fails for 3 straight seasons you start talking about the pieces being broken. I think until you acheive that roster you don’t take away pieces that can help you get there – you try to add as much as you can without subtraction. IF that means the Canes have to lose first round draft picks in 2 out of the next 4 years so be it – I think they are getting to the point they need to take that risk of subtracting non-roster assets for adding roster assets.
I would say considering the team has cap space it makes the above strategy EVEN MORE the best road to go down. Teams that are up against the cap have no choice but to trade out good pieces for new pieces – see Chicago with Saad, Panarin. But if you have space why not add. Look at New Jersey, they’ve kept their pieces and added without really subtracting and now they are above us in the conference.
Let’s think outside the box a little. Why not move Lindy to 3rd line center and rask to Stall’s wing. Might be the making of a good shut down line.
I think the reason Rask doesn’t work well as a winger is his lack of straight line speed. In Peters system the centers do have a lot of skating but a lot more straight line from front of d-zone net to high slot offensive zone. The wingers are usually relied upon to generate the speed going into the zone and Rask just doesn’t possess that. He fits pretty well as an average speed, reliable defensive center. Kind of like a better offensive version of Marcus Kruger.