The Hurricanes game Wednesday against the Pittsburgh Penguins offers a look at another team that was really bad but rebuilt into a team capable of winning the Stanley Cup. The Penguins are 1 of multiple teams that went from being a a bottom dweller to being rebuilt into a team capable of making it to the Stanley Cup Finals (and in most cases winning it). Other teams who have recently accomplished this include the Chicago Blackhawks, Tampa Bay Lightning and Los Angeles Kings.
The NHL draft gifts automatic superstar foundation
This post takes a look at the timeline and process for the Penguins rebuild to see if there is anything that the Hurricanes can borrow as they attempt to accomplish similar. From 2001-02 through 2003-04, the Penguins missed the playoffs, finished in last place in their division and actually managed to top the previous year’s poor performance by doing even worse in the next season. The Penguins’ timing for playing abysmal hockey was incredibly good. The perfect storm of a poor record, the loss of the 2004-05 to a labor dispute and some luck with ping pong balls almost singlehandedly put the Penguins on course for a rapid rebuild with a couple elite players as its foundation. The 2002-03 season yielded Marc-Andre Fleury with the first overall pick and never in NHL history has a single poor season yielded as much of a return as the Penguins 2004-05 season. First, the Penguins obtained a ‘can’t miss’ scoring forward in Evgeni Malkin with the second pick of the 2004 draft. Then the lockout and some ping pong balls did even better awarding the Penguins with the first overall pick in the 2005 draft and the opportunity to select generational talent Sidney Crosby. The short-lived learning period for the aforementioned stars yielded 1 more poor season that netted Jordan Staal with the second overall draft pick in the 2006 NHL draft, and along the way the Penguins selected Kris Letang with the third round pick in the 2005 NHL draft.
Against the backdrop of a tough run of 4 years in Pittsburgh that saw attendance plummet to an average of 11,877 in 2003-04 and rumors swirling about the team moving because of lack of help building a new arena in Pittsburgh, a core of elite players were parachuted into the situation from the NHL draft and more or less rescued the struggling franchise.
The team was 3 deep at center with Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Jordan Staal and also added the best young goalie that draft chips could buy plus an offensively-capable defenseman who fit well in the go-go offense driven by Crosby and Malkin.
A rapid ascent led by the core
Crosby’s rookie season of 2005-06 was the last learning season and also added the last blue chip draftee to the mix in Jordan Staal. From there, the Pens rose up as fast as Crosby, Malkin and company could carry them which was pretty fast. The team made the playoffs in Crosby’s second season of 2006-07, made the Finals in 2007-08 and then won the Stanley Cup in 2009 which was Sidney Crosby’s fourth season in the NHL.
A more detailed season by season analysis of the Penguins roster during the rapid ascent would show some savvy moves adding veterans and scoring-capable wings to the mix, but that should not distract from the fact that the Penguins rebuild was for the most part driven by the drafting of young superstars.
What might this mean for the Carolina Hurricanes?
In a league in which more than half of the teams make the playoffs, it is possible to push into the playoffs with a deep lineup or even a late hot streak, but I think the challenge of being legitimate Cup contender requires a couple superstars that help a team rise above. The Blackhawks’ story is similar in this regard as is the Lightning’s successful rebuilding process (though it has yet to yield a Stanley Cup win).
It is maybe not the only way, but for the Hurricanes to follow a path similar to the Penguins’ rebuild would require at least a couple of the Hurricanes’ top players to develop into superstars not just good players. Of the ‘older young players,’ Jordan Staal, Jeff Skinner and Justin Faulk seem to teeter on the fence of being good NHL players versus taking the next step and pushing into the same category as the Ovechkins, Backstroms, Stamkoses, Hedmans, Johnsons, Crosbys, Malkins, Toews, Keiths, Kanes and others that lead the perennial Stanley Cup contenders. Is 1 or more of these players capable of taking 1 more step upward into the elite category that drives wins and competes for Hart Trophies? Of the next wave of high draft picks (Elias Lindholm, Haydn Fleury, Noah Hanfin) all were drafted with the expectation that they could 1 day become elite players, but none have yet to become more than decent middle of the roster NHL players. Is it possible that 1 or more of Lindholm, Fleury or Hanifin develop into NHL stars? Or is it maybe possible that we are seeing 1 or more of Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce or Sebastian Aho do that from a lower draft position?
When I net it out, the Hurricanes seem to have an interesting mix of players who could play their way up into that elite level that generally populates the top 2-4 roster spots on consistent NHL winners. I actually think the Hurricanes are capable of pushing up into the playoffs through improved roster depth and balance, but I do think the level higher than that will require at least a couple legitimate superstars.
What say you Canes fans?
Do you agree that it will take a couple superstars for the Canes to push up above the middle of the pack and yearly playoff contention? Or do you instead think the Hurricanes can use a different model heavier on depth and balance possibly lacking elite superstars?
Do you think the Canes already have these elite players on their roster? If so, who do you see as current or future elite NHL players?
Go Canes!
The one team you didn’t mention that has had more recent success than PIT are the LA Kings, and I would describe that team as “deep” instead of a team led by elite players. Yes, Kopitar and Doughty and maybe even Jeff Carter have been excellent and are part of that conversation, but you don’t think of the Kings the same way you think of CHI and PIT.
To me, the LAK are more the template for the Canes than CHI or PIT is. Hard to play against, tough, defensive-minded, elite special teams. They out work opponents and grind them down, especially over a 7-game series.
Other than Skinner, who I think is underrated league-wide but has been outstanding this year, and Pesce/Slavin, who haven’t played at an elite level long enough, the Canes elite players aren’t quite at the same caliber (yet) as these other teams.
We’re still very young and most of our players are still growing into their games with their best hockey in front of them. Exciting times even in a brutal division.
Good call on LA. I am torn on whether Kopitar and Doughty are close enough to the elite category to be lumped in with Pit and Chi.
So, I have to disagree, as I think any sort of model using the Blackhawks, Kings or Penguins is not conducive to the small-market approach that is the reality of our situation. Further, rebuilds are a lot easier when you get two elite forwards with back-to-back No. 1 picks. The Penguins were godawful before that.
Rather, look at the multiple small-budget rebuilds going on right now. Columbus, in particular. 24-5-4 right now, and I’d challenge anyone to tell me who their leading scorer is, without looking it up. Specifically though, I think Calgary is the most similar example of rebuild to what Carolina is trying to pull off. They have a stellar young defense, which takes its lumps (last year) but they surprised with a playoff run the year prior, and are in playoff position this year.
The ultimate rebuild is the Lightning. Small hockey market, a couple top 3 picks (granted one was Stamkos) but they’ve mainly built their team through player development and have consistently been a potent playoff threat for the last decade.
This isn’t the NBA. We don’t need superstars to make it to the playoffs. To win another Cup? Possibly, because the big markets are able to bring in those star-level vets on cheap contracts, but the Hurricanes don’t have the resources to play that game, so why should they try?
Player development for the win(s)!!! Also, I still think Aho has star potential….just saying.
I thought we were talking about teams that had won a Cup … agree with COL and TBL though not sure about CAL yet. For that matter, STL has been very consistent in a smaller market even if they haven’t won the Cup yet.
Hey Cory…Thanks for chiming in with great thoughts as always.
The Columbus situation is fascinating to me. They (maybe along with Montreal (Subban) & Eddmonton (Hall)) entered the 2016-17 season as 1 of the most derided teams management-wise in the entire league after the Johansen/Tortella saga last season.
The team very quickly went from a trendy Cup contender pick to a mess of an organization last season only to rise again in 2016-17.
But at the end of the day, my measure is winning a Stanley Cup or at least getting to the finals, so the jury is still out on them.
That said, the Blue Jackets very clearly represent a different model of depth over stars that might be more easy to copy versus hoping a Crosy, Kane, Toews, Malkin or 2 fall out of the sky.