And just like that, the pendulum swung back to positive on Thursday night with a high octane 6-3 win over the Toronto Maple Leafs who came into the game with an impressive 7-2 record and the top scoring offense in the entire NHL. The previously feeble Carolina Hurricanes offense outscored the scorers and left with a resounding win.
One explanation for Thursday’s game is simple inconsistency. The parity in the NHL makes for an up and down ride even for good teams, but based on the highs and lows thus far in the 2017-18 season for the Hurricanes, one could make a reasonable claim that the Hurricanes are maybe even more inconsistent than most.
Quick try at identifying the Hurricanes best stretches of hockey in 2017-18
If we chalk up the ups and downs to inconsistency, the article ends there. But instead let’s consider some of the Hurricanes best hockey this season:
Game 4 vs. Edmonton: In total, the Hurricanes were outplayed in this game. The possession and shot totals said so, and the eye test, if not distracted by goal scoring, matched. But the Hurricanes scored twice early against a team that likes to run and gun a bit anyway. So at that point the game opened up, and despite being outplayed the Hurricanes had and finished with high efficiency to the tune of five goals.
Game 5 vs. Calgary: I still think this was the Hurricanes best game in total. The good guys were reasonably solid defensively and dictated play throughout most of the game despite not scoring a bunch.
Game 6 vs. Dallas–Third period: After two lackluster periods and a 4-1 deficit, the Hurricanes had no choice but to pin their ears back, take some risks and go for it. When they did, they were instantly better. It was ultimately too little, too late, but before that realization, the Hurricanes played a fast and furious third period and netted two goals in the process.
Game 7 vs. Tampa Bay–Third period: Though the effort was not dreadful like against Dallas, the situation was similar entering the third period with a multi-goal deficit. Again, with nothing to lose, the Hurricanes pinned their ears back and went for it, and again they mounted a serious comeback before falling short.
Game 8 vs. Toronto: Finally, Thursday’s win in Toronto was a bit like the Edmonton game. The Hurricanes scored twice early against a team that does not mind wide open hockey anyway. The result was the opponent opening things up, but the Hurricanes getting the better of that situation with opportunistic scoring in bunches.
Seeking a common theme
When I think about the ups and downs and try to sort through the ups looking for commonality, here is what I get: The Hurricanes are very good when the game opens up and is played in a fast-paced back and forth manner in the middle of the rink.
I think the Calgary win is a bit of an outlier in that regard. I would describe that game more as steady and sound hockey for a full 60 minutes. But all of the other four games/parts of games featured one of the two things. Either the opponent was down early and willing to open things up, or the Hurricanes were down late and went into desperation mode opening things up trying to generate offense. In both scenarios, the Carolina Hurricanes thrived in the more open style of play and showed an incredible knack for opportunistic scoring (or at least scoring chance generation) in bunches.
The sample size is fairly small. And the conclusion is some combination of interpretation and reading tea leaves and therefore subject to debate. But if you do take my assessment of the best of the Hurricanes first eight games, the upshot is potentially interesting.
Are the 2017-18 Carolina Hurricanes best designed for wide open shootouts of the 6-5 variety? On the surface, one might think that does not make much sense for a team that finishing 20th in the NHL in scoring last year and made only modest scoring upgrades in the offseason. But on the other hand, the roster is definitely built to play a skating game that goes back and forth in a hurry. And at least relative to battling for pucks on the walls, playing in the middle of the rink is more suitable to the Hurricanes size and skill.
Next up – A couple more rounds of testing the reverse
As luck would have it, the next two games feature two Western Conference teams who will bring some big and rugged into PNC Arena. Both St. Louis and Anaheim will be more content to play the game from station to station and on the walls.
The question is whether the Hurricanes can win a battle of will against these teams and open things up a bit more, or if instead they must somehow find a way to grind out a win in a style that maybe is not ideal for them.
What say you Caniacs?
1) Could I be right that alleged to be scoring challenge Hurricanes are actually the opposite and just need to make more of a concerted effort to open things up from the initial drop of the puck?
2) What are the commonalities and trends that you see in the team’s best stretches of hockey so far in 2017-18?
Go Canes!
1) Not exactly. As mentioned yesterday, there are 10 players on the ice–and most importantly an opposing goalie. As much as fans like to imagine that their team dictates every play (like many I intermittently follow the live game thread at CanesCountry), it just ain’t so. Often shots that find the net in one game are rejected in the next game if the goalie is playing well. It is not always the case that Rask or Ryan is just not good enough!
The Canes style–controlling possession and being strong defensively–will win many games. It will also lose a few 2-1 when the opposing goalie has a good night. What the games/periods you mention demonstrate is that the 17-18 Hurricanes have more offensive talent than most of us were giving them credit for 24 hours ago. As you indicated, the next two games are more likely to be 2-1 or 3-2 affairs, maybe going to OT. That is fine. In all honesty, I personally felt like the Canes were going to get a point out of every game as I watched late in the third period. Sure the Dallas game is no blueprint, but even in that one the Canes looked competitive and the better team at the end.
For me the bottom line is that five of the first seven games were as much about how well opposing goalies were playing as about the level of the Canes’ offensive talent. Some will call it overly optimistic or unrealistic, but from what I have seen Carolina has enough scoring and a style of play to make the playoffs. There will still be a few 2-1 contests with the Canes on the wrong end, but that doesn’t prove that the entire organization is committed to losing.
2) Containing Tampa Bay’s and Toronto’s (I don’t put Edmonton in here because they have struggled against every opponent so far) potent offenses represent the best stretches. It was great to see scoring last night, but being able to shut down Matthews, Marleau, Nylander, and Marner for the second half of the game once it was tied, was just as important as the six goal total. Losing last night 7-6 wouldn’t have been any type of moral victory. Several folks at C&C (dmiller, raleightj, and a few others) were stating confidence in the team’s offensive skills. They were correct. The Canes don’t have an elite scorer outside Skinner. But they do have the talent to score better than 2.4 goals a game. Opposing goalies were playing well–it happens just like in baseball, look at the World Series.
I have learned this team can score against heavy offensive teams like Edmonton and Toronto. If a team can back check and play defense, we’re looking at 1 or 2 goals.
Columbus’ goalie had a standing on your head type night. The rest of losses, the goalie was solid but not outstanding. Goalies look a lot better when they see every puck coming to them. We didn’t see a constant net presence until last night.
Lets see how the offense does against STL and ANA. If its the same mess as before, then we still have an offensive problem. If we get to 3 goals in both games, then we might have turned a corner last night. Last night’s game doesn’t erase my offensive concerns. It only puts the voicing of them on hold.
Really solid points by all. I was one of the people losing my cool and over reacting a little. Perhaps I should be overly critical of Rask more often. He looked great last night.
I think the idea of opening things up is on point. We excel against fast teams that rely on their offence(which is a good thing in the Metro). Our forwards aren’t dynamic enough yet to score a ton of goals when being closely checked.
This leads me to worry a bit about the upcoming two games as Stl and Anh are both heavy teams. The team may struggle to keep the crease clear on our side and clogged on their side. These are the kinda of games where I think Skinner will be relied on to score goals through sheer force of will.
I’m torn on this question of our team identity and how to play our best hockey.
On the one hand, coming out of last season, Pesce/Slavin took another step forward, Hanifin played much better after the trade deadline, Faulk found his legs mid-season, we had nice depth ripening in Jr’s and in CLT, and our PK was lights-out: except for in goal, which GMRF went out and addressed early in the offseason, our general consensus was that our team was being built by GMRF from our goal out. This was only re-enforced by not traded a young-D for Duchene, Galchenyuk, etc. So coming into this season I expected us to excel in low-scoring tight-checking games.
On the other hand, we are clearly young and fast and skilled in open ice – and that starts with our blue line – and as we’ve seen in the first 8 games, and even starting in the preseason to the extent those games matter (especially vs. EDM and WAS), we actually do quite well in high-scoring games that go up and down the ice. So the actual on-ice performance over the first 8 games has not squared with my (our) going-into-the-season expectations.
Further, while it may not be the general consensus, I’ve been quite happy with our defense so far this year – they’ve given us the chance to win all but one game (DAL) – and even though our PK hasn’t been as good as it was last year, or even very good at all, our results have been worse in low-scoring, tight-checking games than they’ve been in open-ice games.
Throwing this out there to be shredded by the analytics people: maybe the lack of multiple go-to high-end goal-scorers more negatively affects us in low-scoring games where the big play by the high-skilled guy matters more (strong link) than it does in high-scoring fast-paced end-to-end games (weak link) where more players make more plays. I’m thinking now that we may struggle come playoff time when games aren’t end-to-end like last night’s game was, but the formula for getting to the Playoffs is to open up our play. Maybe our strength really is our offensive speed and depth and our defense is only good enough to support this style of play and not the reverse, where our offense is only good enough to grind out 2-1 or 3-2 wins. (This may be a strong view weakly held.)
I think it’s something to continue watching over the next 10 games.
when we play with energy for a full 60 min consistently, then we will be a playoff team. Last night was a giant step in the right direction.
1) Directionally, the canes offense has feasted on teams that are bottom-half in team defense (Goals Against / Game). Sample sizes are small, but the data is insightful. Toronto – 25th, Minnesota – 21st, Edmonton 18th, and Calgary – 14th. The losses are Tampa- 2nd, CBJ – 5th, Dallas – 17th, and a stinker, Winnipeg – 24th.
With the exception of the final 3 minutes of Tampa, the canes defense has played pretty consistently, whether against top offenses (Toronto – #1, Tampa – #2)or lower producing teams (Calgary – 28, Edmonton – 30).
What I saw in Toronto was a canes offense feasting on a porous defense. The game “opened up” for the canes because Toronto wasn’t always positionally sound, leaving players alone in the slot entirely too often. This bodes well for the canes, though. As their team offense gels, smaller and smaller defensive holes appear more porous.
Also, our shots just went in. Sometimes the hockey gods smile at you.
2) Our defense is tightening up and making fewer mistakes. The 3rd pair was really good last night, which we sorely need. Offensively, we are best playing a puck possession game. We can keep top pair defensemen on the ice for more minutes if we are cycling in their end (the best defense is good offense), while doing two more things. First, we have to exploit the little holes in the defense as they open up, and secondly, we have to create opportunities for ourselves with a combination of odd-man rushes and/or traffic in front of the goalie.
To set the table for tonight, STL is #12 in Goals For/Game and #9 in Goals Against/Game. It projects to be a very different game than Toronto.
In response to these points and dmiller above.
This early in the season I would argue goalie play drives overall defensive success—a strong link argument.
Carolina has faced four of top eight goalies (save % for goalies with at least five games). Those are the four games scoring two goals or less. The other four games were 6, 5, 4, 3 goals. You can look at WIW post for last night’s game and I predicted four goals—Leaf’s goalie had been average.
My takeaway is that Canes are fine offensively except against above average goalies. Given a typical bell curve, 50 or so games should be no problem. Winning 40% of games against above average goalies (see Calgary game and almost Columbus game) should be enough to earn 95 or more points.
Tonight three goals are likely.
Good point CT. There is a close relationship, in that an excellent goalie will make team defense statistics look good and drive down GAA. Conversely, a great defense that gives up few scoring chances will make the goalie’s stats look good and also drive down GAA.
Tonight, one key will be how our legs hold up on the defensive end. On the second night of a back-to-back (with travel) it will be a challenge to keep the legs from turning to wood. We may need more than 3 tonight to get a win. Look forward to the game though!
A few things, some of which have been discussed above.
When the game opens up a bit we can play to our strength which is speed and tempo. We did that against TB and again against TOR.
We did very well against TB for 2 periods with a number of grade-A chances…that didn’t go in. Last night was the same thing, except the puck went in the net.
Before the game I had wondered if we would do well expecting the game to be open and fast-paced and given the Leafs’ weak defense (with all due respect to the now clean-shaven Hainsey, he is not a first-pairing D-man as was discussed here last season.
I don’t know enough about either the Blues or the Ducks to know what type of style to expect, but we do have to improve against heavier teams and in closely checked games. Is that something that can be learned?, or is it a personnel issue?