In my hockey travels today, I happened upon an article by Pete Jensen at NHL.com with a fantasy hockey slant and an early top 100 ranking for forwards for the 2018-19 season. Pete’s stuff is generally good read if you are fantasy hockey inclined and interesting in many cases even if you are not.
In this case, I found the article interesting in terms of measuring distribution of true first line scoring talent by team. Since fantasy hockey is largely focused on scoring, fantasy hockey rankings are a decent even if not perfect proxy for scoring. To be clear, that is not to say that a scoring-focused fantasy hockey slant correctly measures a players’ overall value, but it is decent for a back of the envelope measure of raw offensive fire power.
Where Hurricanes players land
The Hurricanes did not place a single player in the top 50 and placed only Sebastian Aho at #62 and Teuvo Teravainen at #76 in the top 100. Jeff Skinner was only in the ‘just missed’ category. First, I think it is fair to debate whether the Hurricanes were short-changed. Because of his short but impressive track record and room for upside, I would rate Aho higher than 62. And even coming off of bit of a down season, I would have Skinner in the top 100 of an offense-only ranking.
But nonetheless, the rankings do represent one view of how the Hurricanes top players stack up offensively across the league.
How the Hurricanes stack up against other teams
At an average level, it breaks out like this…
The NHL has 31 teams which means that a top line across the league would make for 93 forwards. So to be ‘average’ in this ranking, a team should place three players in the top 93 and ideally evenly spaced out between the top and the bottom of the list. Based on that simple measure, the Hurricanes are short a first line forward. In addition to that, if you break things finer and consider 1-31 as #1 forwards, 32-62 as #2 forwards and 63-93 as #3 forwards, the Hurricanes lack a #1 forward and their #2 forward is in the bottom of that range.
Again, I think one could debate the individual rankings, but at the same time I do not think it is necessarily off base to say that he Hurricanes are short a top line forward.
Each of the last four teams standing in the Eastern Conference playoffs had at least three of the top 93 forwards. Washington has 4; Pittsburgh has 5; Tampa Bay has 6; Boston has 3. Despite being light on quantity, Boston maybe makes up for it by being top-heavy with three of the top 16 players.
Bridging the gap
Many Canes followers are high on the team’s prospect pool and reinforcements on the way from Charlotte for the 2018-19 season. I think this optimism is justified and has the potential to boost the team’s scoring depth. But at the same time, when one looks at the type of players who are on the list, I think it is asking a lot to project a medium-ish prospect stepping up from the AHL level to join these ranks. While it certainly does happen in the NHL, building playoff plans upon this happening is a high-risk strategy. No doubt, Andrei Svechnikov could be a wild card because of his high-end talent, but again, he represents more of a wild card with upside than a solid plan that the team should bank on.
The question then is where could or should another higher-end scoring forward come from? Do you count on a sizable rebound from Jeff Skinner to make a dent in the goal scoring deficit? Does Elias Lindholm have another gear higher than the depth scoring ceiling that he has bumped up against so far? Does the team need to add a veteran offensive talent from outside of the organization to fill the gap and win now while the youth continues to develop? Is it possible to just generate enough additional offense with improved depth scoring such that another higher-end forward is not a necessity?
The questions are many. What do you see as the answer to more scoring?
Poll first and discussion after that…
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1) How would you address the dilemma of building from within and leaving NHL ice time for youth but not relying too much on unproven players?
2) What is your plan A, plan B, plan C, etc. for boosting goal scoring for the 2018-19 season?
Go Canes!
As far as the list–there is a definitely bias against the Canes. Max Pacioretty is ranked above every Cane (he had 37 points in 64 games). No reason to think Skinner isn’t as likely to rebound as Max. Also Hornqvist whose career high is 53 points is above both Aho and Teravainen. So I wouldn’t take the list as a projection of scoring prowess much past the top 30.
That being said, one of the youngsters and maybe more will get 20g/45pts. If Skinner is slightly better than this season, then the team will have four goal-scorers around top 100.
Finally, the Canes only need to replace one playoff team. New Jersey only has two players on the list–and Taylor Hall is not likely to score much more than last season.
When you haven’t made the playoffs in nine years there will be a bias against players in your organization. Of the choices given the best bet is the #2 pick. There is no talent in Charlotte that is close to any of the three players discussed for that pick.
Another way to increase scoring has nothing to do with offensive talent. It’s playing solid team defense. The NHL is a defense first league. Great scoring teams like Tampa Bay score when they take advantage of mistakes and turnovers. If you were watching the Caps and Pens last night you saw Washington win, not because of scoring talent, but by choking the life out of Pittsburgh with their defense. Sure, when they got the turnovers they were able to capitalize…eventually. That’s how you win regularly in the NHL. Watching the Pens turn the puck over time and time again was way too familiar. The Canes have a long way to go to being able to play D like that. Too many players are defensive liabilities including forwards and defensemen. It has to be fixed and that may mean getting some players with “scoring talent” out of town if they won’t commit to playing a team game.
I think with the addition of Svech and Necas to the squad we could add a top 93 scorer. At a minimum it could be together they may a top scorer.
If Skinner is still with us, he could jump back into the top 93 scorer.
I think we should see 2 scoring lines with Aho as one center and Necas as the other. Staal and Wallmark’s line should add secondary scoring to give us a more balanced approach.
You guys are expecting a whole lot from Necas. Asking a kid to jump into the fire of the NHL and play center to boot? I’m excited to see him play, but that’s a big burden to put on him right away.
Also….
https://twitter.com/FriedgeHNIC/status/993840133714526208
Just mentioned that below :/ my stomach dropped. I may need to watch the draft lottery again to reinstill my optimism for the off season.
The way I see it, the only ways the canes can add elite scoring is through the draft or by signing Tavares (very unlikely unless he’s a huge Svech fan.) Maybe a trade but people don’t really trade the kind of talent we need plus I don’t see management adding an expensive scorer unless they’re confident the team can make a deep run.
Not bringing Rod in as HC and finding an experienced coach would be plan A for boosting offence. Elliot Friedman seems to think RBA is going to be announced later this week though.
Plan B and C would be some combination of our draft pick and the guys in Charlotte adding some danger in the o zone. I can’t say I’m confident that this will solve everything though.
I think Rod will be fine as head coach. With BP the team seems to have tuned him out. I think you have a lot harder time tuning out Rod. Obviously the lack of head coaching experience could come back to haunt, but honestly, it’s not a bad move to try and build some identity around Rod’s identity. It’s not a guaranteed win by any means, but if true, I think it would constitute a fairly reasonable way to try and shake things up and see if he can pull off something special with the guys.
That’s the hope I guess, would rather not have to hope for a feel good narrative coming true.
I like Rod and hope he succeeds, I’m just worried he has no experience at any level and wasn’t even successful as an assistant running the powerplay. Maybe we’ll get even better at faceoffs though.
I believe that scoring will come naturally from the gang of talent we have in the organization now (i.e. Raleigh and Charlotte). We can only improve on that by the possibility that the newbies coming up (e.g. Necas, the number 2 pick, college kids) come to us NHL-ready.
We do not need to overpay for a scoring forward or a hot shot scoring d-man via trade or FA. We have all the scorers we need, and then some.
My beloved Canes do not need some magic man to come in to save us all by sprinkling fairy dust on our kids to make them start scoring. Remember Matt Duchene?
We need a couple of things. They are:
1) A coach who will bring the players together as a team.
2) Get rid of the cancer(s); player(s) who do not want to buy into the new culture of winning.
3) An experienced, big, strong and mean stay-at-home d-man who is highly motivated to win. He will know that he is expected to make us a team with grit. He will be the guy that our kids can look to for inspiration and security. And above all, he will make it very unpleasant for anyone who wants to take a cheap shot at any of our guys.
4) A big, strong and mean forward or two whose primary purpose is to make enemy d-men nervous about turning their backs on him to retrieve the puck from their end. Like the d-man I just described, these forwards will know that their primary purpose is to inspire their teammates to forecheck relentlessly. They will know that they are expected to camp in front of the enemy net until we score. Finally, they will know it is their job to and be eager to come to the aid of their teammates when enemy goons start trying to bully out guys.
5) Put the “C” on Willy’s sweater. He will do the rest.
There is no magic in this or any other team sport. No short cuts to winning. The only thing close to that was Butch Goring when the Islanders traded for him. But the Islanders referred to him as the last piece of the puzzle. Not the savior scoring catalyst.
Like perpetual motion and cold fusion, the savior scoring catalyst does not exist.
I recently read a comment somewhere that was alleged to have been made by an associate of TD that TD is looking at moving 7-10 players from the roster, effectively to clear the acceptance of mediocrity/losing from the locker room. Names included Hanifin, Faulk, Skinner, Rask, and 3-6 others who were not named. This is consistent with my thesis of a team reboot. If done right we can bring in a top-6 with 2-3 years of experience, and we can bring in a veteran D or 2 to help stabilize play in the defensive zone. And we may not be forced to speculate on whether Skinner will rebound, or Lindholm.
I think a combination of young players (AHL, draft (Svech), and Necas) with several new veteran players (3-4??) will add the juice both on and off the ice such that our young vets (Turbo, Aho, McGinn) will forget what it is like playing on a losing team and our older vets (Staal, Williams) pick up the energy.
A change in energy will lift individual player output as well as the entire boat. And that thesis doesn’t fit into the above pick-2 list.
That is an aggressive reset if that rumor is true. We should probably only be surprised if nothing surprising happens over the 8-9 weeks. Change has occurred and more is coming.
I’m just glad I didn’t get any player sweaters for my kids this past season.
I still feel pretty good about my Slavin jersey.
Ha! It was time for me to refresh my jerseys anyway (Faulk, Lindholm, maybe Darling). My Slavin and two Aho jerseys remain safe! And my green St. Patrick’s Day “O’Faulk” jersey will never go out of style! 😀
Painful, but sad to say, necessary.
On the subject of getting scoring from rookies, I like to think our talent can duplicate that from other organizations.
As far as a player stepping in as a center one year after being drafted (all the players mentioned are listed only as C on NHL.com, though I realize some played on the wing their first season as well), I think Necas should compare to Dylan Larkin or Travis Konecny. Other players who are slightly older but had success at C in their first season would be Alex Kerfoot and Danton Heinen.
My expectation for Necas is something like 12 goals and 35 points. I also would play him with Svechnikov. They will be part of the explosive Canes team of 2020 (with Aho and TT on another scoring line), so no reason not to start them working on the chemistry.
Zykov has played 12 games (that includes being injured less than 4 minutes into his second game) and has scored 4 goals and 8 points. From my perspective it is reasonable to believe that Zykov can get 18-20 goals on the TAZ line.
Svechnikov is going to be the first forward drafted (and would be first overall if not for a possibly generational D-man). The first forward can conservatively be expect to score 20 goals.
On a slightly related subject–I know Rod’s power play success has been less than overwhelming. But the possible combinations should have us all hopeful.
First PP unit: Aho/TT/Lindholm/Svech/Faulk
Second PP unit: Staal/Williams/Zykov/Necas/Hanifin.
Now RBA or TD might decide to clean house as mentioned by tj, but simply bringing up new blood and having the 2OA makes the offense more potent.
Waddell / RBA announced as GM / HC in case anyone missed it
See I feel like those announcements warrant two separate reactions. As for Rod, I’m glad the search is over and that he’s getting a chance, if a bit unsure of how it will turn out. Waddell just feels like I got hit with the bus that ran Ron Francis over.
REALLY!?
The second most voted on?
One of the young guns from the AHL (Zykov, Foegele, Saarela, Wallmark, etc.) stepping onto an NHL scoring line and producing instantly. (38%, 24 Votes)
That would be the biggest shock to me.
I didn’t vote for that option; I voted for Svech (or other draft pick) and an outside top-6 forward but I do agree with CT’s comment about Zykov:
“Zykov has played 12 games (that includes being injured less than 4 minutes into his second game) and has scored 4 goals and 8 points. From my perspective it is reasonable to believe that Zykov can get 18-20 goals on the TAZ line.”
Wow!
Good show!
A lot of these narratives sound the same as what we’ve been hearing for the last decade, which to me is troubling.
If our solutions are going to come in the form of a head coach with zero HC experience(at any level), prayers that AHL guys pan out and bargain FA signings, why did the team fire BP and RF?
The prospect pool is more promising than ever but I wouldn’t expect a handful of rookies to turn the team around.(hope I’m wrong though).
It sounds like the Canes want to continue rebuilding, RF was great at that. His main flaw was his inability to transition from rebuilding to contending.
1) When I look at the Hurricanes 2017-18 forward complement – I see only a handful of players that are MUST keeps in terms of being guys who will help you get in the playoffs but also help you win in the playoffs. With that being said I am higher on Lindholm than most and could admit he is an option to be shaved from this group: Aho, Terevainen, Staal, Skinner, Lindholm, Williams (1 year ONLY then his spot becomes available). I see the remainder as either replaceable or a detriment to their chances. I’ll add McGinn to the list in an optimistic scenario where he is a full-time ‘great 4th liner’. That leaves 7/12 spots taken going into next season, with 1 of those being a near certain bottom 6 presence in Mcginn. To me that leaves 3 openings in the top 9 and 2 openings on the 4th line for next season.
That is 5 whole spots assuming Ryan, Stempniak and Rask are ALL gone. Diguiseppe, Martinook and Nordstrom are all 13th forwards with only 1 or 2 being retained. If you have 2 or more in the lineup at once then the Canes are once again running the risk of being short on depth scoring. So when it comes to balancing NEW guys with PROVEN guys to me its just blindly obvious you have to use a BLEND to achieve success for next season. If the Canes fill those 5 spots with 2 external/3 internal, 3 external/2 internal I think they will be in a GREAT position moving forward. If they decide to go old school JR approach and bargain hunt for all 5 externally and block the prospects they lose. But at the same time lets curb our excitement in our prospects including the upcoming 2nd overall pick – do we really expect FIVE young players to step into an already young/inconsistent group of forwards and the results to be positive? To me thats a recipe for more inconsistency and disaster. That is a recipe for the rebuild continuing another 2-3 seasons.
Of this group of young players choose 2-4 to fill in some of the 5 holes: Zykov, Wallmark, Foegele, Necas, Svechnikov, Roy, Gauthier, Saarela. Certainly don’t select 5 of them I think that would be a mistake. Then of the upcoming free agent class select a couple of them to fill the remaining spots and badaboom you have my armchair GM recipe for a 2018-19 Hurricanes PLAYOFF team along with a team set up to do well moving forward.
I don’t want to see these new young players getting experience from a bunch of guys who haven’t seen the playoffs in their whole careers – they all need to learn from a few more Justin Williams type guys – people who CAN be found in free agency if this team has the cajones to spend and take risk.
2 ) Plan A for me – see above: Bring in Svechnikov and 1 or 2 of Necas, Zykov, Wallmark, Foegele to lineup. Bring in 2 of Rick Nash, Paul Stastny, David Perron, Tyler Bozak, Patrick MAroon, Evander Kane, James Neal. Please tell me how that scenario does not make the Canes instantly a top 13 ish team in the NHL.
Plan B – go the Ron Francis route and keep your future contractual options open – play the young players only and let them sink or swim with the current core. Identify the keepers and sign long term, but this is a long term plan that has already been brewing…
Plan C – Maybe the problem is the original core – trade out Skinner, Faulk, maybe even Jordan Staal and redefine the team altogether – again a sink or swim strategy.
I like A because it has lowest risk if not greater short term rewards than long term. I could live with a questionable maybe too long contract on JUly 1st if it can net them another Justin Williams type (Rick Nash being my favourite of this free agent class).