Today’s Daily Cup of Joe is part 2 of 2 in evaluating Ron Francis’ work for the 2016-17 season and to some degree building for the future. Part 1 which addressed the broader plan and the blue line can be found HERE. Part 2 will look at Francis’ work at the forward and goalie positions.
Building the Hurricanes forward lines
Evaluation: Whereas the blue line had a majority of key components in place both for the 2016-17 season and the longer-term future, Francis entered the summer of 2016 with a forward roster that was still very much a work in progress for 2016-17 and also much farther away from his vision of stocking a roster with good young players. The departure of top half of the roster forwards Eric Staal and Kris Versteeg thinned out a lineup that was already short at the forward position. In addition Francis decided to more or less start from a blank slate for depth forwards. Jay McClement was still under contract, but Francis chose not to re-sign Riley Nash, Nathan Gerbe, Chris Terry or Brad Malone.
My math said that the Hurricanes had only 4 top 9 forwards (Jordan Staal, Victor Rask, Jeff Skinner, Elias Lindholm) entering the summer of 2016, the hope that the magic that Joakim Nordstrom and Andrej Nestrasil found with Jordan Staal would carry over in the 2016-17 and some kid named Aho.
Francis made 1 of his 2 biggest moves of the summer when he added 22-year old skilled and experienced forward Teuvo Teravainen to the mix. With Chicago trapped in salary cap hell, Francis obtained Teravainen partly by taking on Bryan Bickell’s $4 million contract and partly for second and third round draft picks. Next Francis steered clear of the risky high-end bidding wars and instead picked up veteran journeyman Lee Stempniak for 2 years at $2.5 million per year. The price and minimal term risk were good value for the 51 points that he scored in the previous season. Francis’ addition of fourth-liner Viktor Stalberg paid dividends during his time here and also at the trade deadline when he yielded a third round draft pick.
When I assess Francis’ moves at forward, I give him high marks for not making any mistakes or having any misses. I also give him high marks for getting good value and improving the team with the moves he did make. But in terms of the 2016-17 season, I think the team is still a bit short in terms of true top 9 forwards and especially in terms of top 6 type scorers. That shows in the team’s #20 ranking out of 30 teams in terms of goals scored per game.
But in terms of making step-wise progress, my math says that the Hurricanes will enter the summer of 2017 with 7 top 9 forwards (same 4 as last season plus Sebastian Aho, Teuvo Teravainen and Lee Stempniak) which is up from only 3 this time last year. In addition, the volume of capable depth forwards with some amount of NHL experience has grown significantly with Joakim Nordstrom, Phil Di Giuseppe, Brock McGinn, Andrej Nestrasil, Patrick Brown and Derek Ryan (if re-signed) all in the mix. Say what you will about the results at forward for 2016-17, but the trend in terms of becoming deeper at the position definitely took a significant step forward.
Grade: I give Francis a A-. The number of holes that Francis had to fill at the forward was a significant mismatch with the budget he had. Francis was net positive in each of the moves he did make. He also avoided any costly missteps in the free agent market. He gets downgraded only slightly because the team just is not quite there yet at the forward position and maybe a little bit because he has yet to land a true top 6 forward to balance out the scoring.
What Francis could have done differently/better: Given budget limitations, not much. Ideally, he would have found 1 more crafty deal to add a top 6 scorer (i.e. the Matt Duchene thing), but those deals are tough to get done, and it might also be accurate to say that he did well not overextending in terms of trade payment to get a player.
Hurricanes goalies
Evaluation: The Hurricanes found their legs in the second half of the 2015-16 season, rose up the standings and came reasonably close to playing their way back into the playoff hunt despite a miserable start. The biggest Achilles’ heel was the team’s goaltending which ranked at or near the bottom of the league regardless of whether you want to use simple or more advanced metrics. When the 2015-16 season ended, Francis had 1 open goalie slot created when Cam Ward’s contract expired and a 2-year contractual commitment to Eddie Lack. The potential options at the goalie position were many entering the summer of 2016. There was not much in terms of free agents but there were multiple players potentially available via trade partly because of the impending expansion draft scheduled for June of 2017. On June 16, 2016 before the draft weekend and well before free agency opened, Francis re-upped with Cam Ward for 2 years at $3.2 million per year. When the summer ended, the Lack remained in tow, and the Hurricanes entered training camp with the same duo that was not good enough the year before.
The 2 biggest movers in the goalie market during the summer of 2016 were fellow 2015-16 bottom dwellers Calgary and Toronto. Toronto moved most aggressively trading a first and a second round pick for Frederik Andersen. Calgary probably finished second trading for Brian Elliott and also signing free agent Chad Johnson. Both of those teams will make the 2017 NHL playoffs.
The 2016-17 season has been another topsy-turvy 1 for the Hurricanes. Cam Ward and Eddie Lack both started slowly again and again played a role in the team digging a hole early in the season. Ward righted the shift by the start of November and generally played well through about mid-January. With no backup, Peters rode Ward who started 12 out of 14 games in November, 13 of 14 in December and then 12 out of 13 in January. Midway through that last stretch, Ward’s level of play seemed to drop and never really rebounded. Lack finally found a burst of goalie goodness during the Canes magical run in late March, so each goalie can lay claim to at least a stretch of goalie goodness. But when you look at the season in total, the Hurricanes finished tied for 26th out of 30 in save percentage and similarly rate in the bottom third or lower for most goaltending metrics.
In short, the goalie tandem that was not good enough in 2015-16 and was again not good enough in 2016-17.
Grade: I give Ron Francis a C-. It is a results business and Francis did not get results from the goalie that he chose to fill the opening nor did he get results from the goalie that he traded for and committed to the summer before. He gets credit for not having a more costly miss (in terms of salary and potentially trade assets), but when saying he could have made a bigger mistake is the biggest positive, the situation is not good.
What could Francis have done better/differently: The possible combinations and options are many, but in short, after a sub-par 2015-16 season in net, Francis could have at least tried to upgrade 1 if not both of the team’s goalie slots. It would have been costly, but he could have bought out Lack and upgraded that slot or he could have gone a different direction with Ward’s slot.
Interestingly, Francis will be in a similar position this offseason. Both goalies have shown signs of having a higher gear but have not been able to do it consistently enough. But on the whole, if you told me I could take their 2016-17 again or try something different, I would pick different for both and roll the dice.
What say you Caniac Nation?
Am I too harsh on Francis for playing it close to the vest at the goalie position? Are you similarly happy with the strides that Francis and the team made at the forward position even though there is still work to do? Also, if you missed it earlier this week check out also the Monday Coffee Shop which includes polls and discussion questions on the 2016-17 season.
Go Canes!
Reflecting on the season, I would give Francis and his team of scouts an A. The decision in 2015 to draft Aho in the 2nd, was A+. Stalberg was a solid performer who made a good penalty killing unit a little better–and RF was able to get a reasonable return at the deadline. So that would be B+. What I think gets lost in all deserved praise of Skinner’s goal-scoring, Aho’s all-around impressive rookie season, and the every game excellence of Slavin and Pesce, is that Stempniak might have been the team MVP. Not best player but most valuable. As I think about the season and the fact that the Canes played a meaningful game on April 1, I realize that without Stempniak or with another signing that didn’t produce, Carolina would have been less successful than last season. For 2.5 million, it isn’t hard to argue that the value Stempniak added was the key to the Canes being as competitive as they were. In fact, I think there is a really strong case for protecting Stempniak. Given that this coming season is in many ways make or break for the team in Raleigh, it makes sense to go against conventional wisdom and protect a 34-year-old with one year on his contract over a younger player (not that I want to see McGinn or DiGuseppe lost) because for next year he gives the team the best chance to get back to the playoffs. I give RF an incomplete that could be an A+ if he keeps Stempniak.
For goalies I have two points/questions. The first I really hope someone can answer. The second is rhetorical.
1. Does the Carolina organization have any options to trade for McCollum. As I understand it he is “on loan” to the Checkers. His performance so far and his steady progression the past 3 years, makes me think he is at least worth a 2nd or 3rd round pick in a trade. Even though older, he might be a capable NHL backup. In fact, his numbers since joining the Checkers are very similar to Halak’s while he was in the AHL, and Halak was strong in his return to the Islanders.
2. Would anyone have argued for the goalies deserving a low grade if the 82 games this year had produced 2.43 GAA, .917 SV% and 6 shutouts. Those were Lack’s numbers his two seasons before joining the Canes. And in 2013-14, Carolina had Khudobin who put up 2.30 and .926 playing almost half the games. You all know what the common denominator is for the fall-off for Lack in both his seasons and Khudobin in his second season with the Canes–the goaltending coaching. Now both Lack and Khudobin could have played over their heads for the seasons before Marcoux. But are any of you willing to pay Bishop or Darling $6 million and watch as the SV% for 17-18 is 9.08? Most of you sound willing. I think the Lack of March is the real deal. Keep him. See if LV bites on Ward, if not trade for McCollum and let whoever wins out back up Lack. I really believe that is the answer.
I agree with the analysis on the Forwards: RF made solid moves and avoided expensive mistakes on a limited budget. Stempniak has been excellent value and Stahlberg over-achieved in his limited role, and given the trade, we wound up with a 3rd and a year more of seasoning for PDG and McGinn, who needed it.
As for the goaltending, we simply can’t stand still this summer. And I think, to ctcaniac’s point, that this may also include a coaching change; as I often say in other contexts, “the fish stinks from the head.”
In a different comment, I think that last summer, before resigning Ward, RF looked at the situation and decided he’d like the options better after 2016-17 and, while hoping for the best, at some level sacrificed this season for the future. Maybe I’m off base here, but it does seem like there are going to be more options and some really good options in play this summer.
It’s easy to grade RF by position but I think it’s more complicated than that. What is undeniable is that compared to where we were as an organization this time last year, and especially where we were when he took over, we are younger, faster, more skilled, deeper at the NHL level and throughout the organization, not cap constrained, and with more than enough money to spend to fill in a smaller number of gaps. This is the work of RF. He deserves a ton of credit.
dmilleravid…Your comment about liking the goalie options better for this summer is possible, and it could work out in the long run. The thing that puzzles me to this day is why Francis moved so early to sign Ward (before the draft weekend even). While it is possible that Francis had already gauged pricing in the trade market and to a lesser degree the free agent market, to me it looked like he had decided Ward was his top choice.
Regardless, he gets another kick at the can this summer with the expansion draft creating an unprecedented number of possibilities.
I’d like to believe it’s because Cam Ward’s locker room leadership meant more than any slight improvement from a different goalie.
Coincidentally, thats why I think Ward is also more likely to be kept than Lack. He’s the most poignant guy in every interview, moreso than any of the alternate captains even. These guys still aren’t just numbers meshed together and chemistry counts. To a minor extent compared to on-ice performance to be sure, but that is definitely a viable reason to delay a goalie decision for a year, when there are several better options down the road.
Ron doesn’t make moves for the sake of making moves, and that’s what I really like about him as a GM. I agree with David Miller, a ton of credit to GMRF
All the comments above make valid points. Therefore, I cover this in another manner.
1. I don’t want to hear the EXCUSE any more about budget constraints. What’s costing this team is not player salaries, it’s 4,000 empty seats. Over 41 games that is 164,000 empty seats. At $50 average per seat that is $8,200,000 lost revenue forgetting about any revenue from playoff games. If management will make the investment of just $6,000,000 more for a top 3 forward (Tavares for example) they will make money off the deal IMO. What I am saying is that money should not be a constraint at this point. As you pointed out Toronto went dollars in for a goalie to solve their glaring problem. My feeling is we must be willing to do the same IF a player that will make a difference comes available and it is just a matter of money to obtain him.
2. Goalies. Two positions are needed on every team. Keep Lack and go get a replacement for Ward. Since January 9, 2017 Ward’s goals against per game is over 3. He’s not the answer (it hurts to say that because otherwise he’s a class guy). A failure to make the effort to solve this problem for next year results in an F grade. No C-‘s or excuses. The current goalie combination is unacceptable IMO.
3. My rating for Francis for this past season exclusive of the goalies is an A+. My rating for our missing owner (no presence physically or financially) is an F. My ratings for the coaches are: Marcoux is a F (no explanation needed), Brindamoor is a C (power play was mediocre), Smith is an A (penalty kill above average with young players and loss of only experienced player).
Just got around to reading this… (actually I missed it before)!
Mostly agree with you RedRyder, except for the FORWARDS… HERE I’M AMAZED…how does having such a mediocre group of mostly 3rd and 4th line forwards (with tons of UNSPENT MONEY) and doing nothing to upgrade them… worth a passing grade? When I look at the job that RF did… it’s no better than INCOMPLETE (D or F)! He has a chance to improve this team (again) and he certainly knows his job
is far from done… we’ll see if he’s successful, or not… BUT NO WAY HAS HE EARNED A PASSING GRADE…YET!