In case you missed it, the first set of articles in a summer series that looks at the newest Hurricanes prospects went up quietly yesterday afternoon. Finnish forward Lenni Killinen who was drafted in the fourth round of the 2018 NHL Draft was up first. You can find an article with short interviews from two scouts based in Finland HERE, and you can find a short reading list of external articles on Killinen HERE.
In writing the two most recent Daily Cup of Joe articles that looked at roster battles for training camp, I could not help but look forward to the start of the regular season just a bit. Over the course of a long NHL season, the roster, line combinations, defense pairings and many other things will shift multiple times. So getting too bogged down in opening day combinations can sometimes be overdone. But in thinking about the front part of the year, there are a few things that I would like to at least take a look at.
1) Valentin Zykov with Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen
Micheal Ferland, who was obtained in the trade with Calgary, possesses a skill set that could fit well with Aho and Teravainen. Like Zykov, he brings a crease-crashing style of play and an ability to score in close. But where Ferland could be superior is as a forechecking disruptor who turns the puck over and creates quick transition opportunities. So it would not surprise if Ferland eventually lands on that line. But I really think the team needs to give Valentin Zykov a reasonable run of games in that slot to see what he can do. Zykov put up seven points in 10 games late in the season and showed decent chemistry with the Finnish duo. He also posted a league-leading 33 goals in the AHL despite playing only 63 games. Could Zykov be on the brink of becoming a legitimate scoring force in the NHL? There are obviously no guarantees, but I think the team must at least invest a run of games to give it a chance. Players cannot rise up the depth chart and become impact players with being given a chance to do so. Zykov should get that chance.
2) Pairing Martin Necas with Andrei Svechnikov initially
I do not think hitching these two players together for the entirety of the 2018-19 season is required. They should be part of the rest of the mix as adjustments are made during the season. But with both players being brand new to the NHL, I like the idea of playing them together to start the season in a somewhat sheltered role that expands as the season progresses and they earn and are comfortable with more. To be clear, I think both players (especially Necas who could start in the AHL) should earn their roster spot, so this wish goes out on a limb in predicting that both do make the opening day roster.
3) Dougie Hamilton with Calvin de Haan and Jaccob Slavin with Brett Pesce
I recently discussed this one elsewhere recently. I believe that Jaccob Slavin and Brett Pesce are a good example of 1+1=3 where players have chemistry and make each other better. Because of that, I would be inclined to at least try de Haan/Hamilton together first. If that does not work after allowing some time to get acclimated, then I would be all for shuffling things and breaking up Slavin and Pesce if necessary. But my starting point would be Slavin/Pesce and de Haan/Hamilton hoping that de Haan and Hamilton mesh well and become another 1+1=3.
4) Victor Rask with Justin Williams
Things are subject to change because of trades before the start of the season, but if the lineup ultimately includes Sebastian Aho still early in his transition to center in one slot and rookie Martin Necas in another, the team will need a second trustworthy line to play behind Jordan Staal’s line. With the aim of giving Victor Rask an assignment in hopes of jump starting him out of the gate, I would like to see him get some time with Justin Williams on one side and speed on the other. Williams and Rask are both heady players who understand angles and assignments and are good read/react players. But neither is fleet of foot. As such, I think pairing the two and then adding a left wing who can/will pin his ears back and forecheck like made could make for a sound defensive line that also generates opportunistic offense off the forecheck. The team is brimming with players who could bring some speed to the left wing with returnee Brock McGinn, newcomer Micheal Ferland and rookie Warren Foegele who should push for a place in the NHL lineup.
5) Alex Nedeljkovic with a short audition in net at the NHL level
To be clear, I am NOT advocating for Nedeljkovic to supplant one of Scott Darling or Petr Mrazek. Rather, if an injury occurs, I would vote for not just calling Nedeljkovic up to be the backup but also getting him a little bit of work. As I wrote in my article discussing dark horse roster candidates, Nedeljkovic has not so much proven he is ready for NHL action, but based on his pedigree, I wonder if could be the type of player who just rises to the occasion when given the chance. Again, I would intend to start the season with Darling and Mrazek, but if there is an opening I would like to see Nedeljkovic get a few games to see where he is. Even if the audition goes poorly, that would be good to know in terms of gauging his schedule and probability for filling a backup role in the near future.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Which of my five initiatives do you agree with?
2) Which do you question or disagree with?
3) Do you have anything that you would add to a list of initiatives for early in the 2018-19 season?
Go Canes!
1. Points 1-3. The TAZ line and “Nechnikov” need a trial run, since there seems to be some chemistry.
2. Depends on whether or not Rask has recovered from his shoulder surgeries. If he did, it would be worth a shot.
1) I will keep repeating it: TAZ is what it appeared for 9 games last year–a top scoring line. Zykov can do a lot more than park himself in front of the net. Though when he does that he is one of the strongest players I have seen. He has good hands, one of the best wrist shots on the team, and makes short passes really well. Aho is going to be a point-per-game center with TAZ.
I believe Necas is the best center for Svechnikov. But I thought it would be next season before Necas would be fully ready. With Lindholm gone, the future is now. So let them work it out.
Your point about Pesce and Slavin is sound, but I also think they are at the point in their development where they will excel together or apart. My guess is RBA tries both options early on.
2) I don’t so much question Ned getting some NHL starts as think you understate the dichotomy. My guess is he either seizes the starting job, or looks overmatched after two or three games. I think the possibility is slightly higher that he is actually the best goalie option.
I am skeptical about Ferland. I think he will be fine, but I am getting the sense that others think he is more highly skilled than he is. I will honestly say I haven’t seen him play other than against Carolina, so I may be the one who is underestimating his talent. Still, there are a few concerns: he had six power play goals but no assists in more than 140 minutes, while the Canes need more PP goals they also need better puck movement; he has never played on the penalty kill which suggests his defense is average; his shooting % has been more than 14% the last two years. My gut tells me that McGinn is the player with offensive upside and Ferland is a strong addition for a line that needs to be more physical. Perhaps he works well on the Rask/Williams line you favor.
3) I would love to see Foegele/Staal/McGinn given a try as a truly disruptive line with real scoring potential. Matt, I understand your concerns that Foegele is not fully developed from a defensive positioning standpoint. That is valid. But I think the energy and physicality of Foegele and McGinn together combined with Staal’s defensive acumen would frustrate other teams’ best lines.
I think we’ll see a TAZ line at home and to start away games. We may see more balanced lines on the road, depending on opposing teams’ strategies.
I think we’ll see all pairs tried preseason to see which pairs play better together.
I would like to see Williams play on his opposite side with Necasnichov. Staal make his own version of BBC with Ferland and McGinn. Rask play with Foegele and Martinook for a decent scoring 4th line.
I agree with the guys that the TAZ line should stay together.
I like the idea of pairing Necas with the new Russian kid, Svechnikov. I think Ferland should play with these guys.
McGinn, Staal, and Williams.
The new big Finn, Martinook, Digiuseppe.
Cal and Dougie.
Slavin and Pesce
Carrick and TVR.
Scotty and Petr as the starting goalie tandem. Of course give Ned a shot when an opening happens.
I’m suffering from trade-watch-fatigue. I’ve been waiting for the Faulk/Skinner shoe to drop for too long now and have no energy to focus on lines, etc.
It’s something to distract us all from the roster-building that still lies ahead – there’s only so many ways to talk about how to make trades – but I’m not sure there’s much utility in this until camp starts and we know the actual players we have in uniform.
Agreed, it is all speculation at this point as many things can happen yet. I was never on the trade skinner bandwagon. Given the D we now have, I do not see it making much sense to trade skinner. Its unlikely we get back another 30 goal scorer. I see little point in getting prospects. Percentages are not that high of getting another dynamic scorer like Skinner. We would probably get a D with any trade partner and we do not need that. I still think keep the 30 goal scorer and let RBA get him to work harder on D.
Faulk could get us a good winger, but I see no reason to give him away. Get equal value. RNH or Saad are my wish. Even then, we do not need another D for Skinner.
I was a little antsy before but honestly now I have calmed down a bit. Skinner I have also always wanted to keep but with the way DW was shopping him it was hard to listen because it seemed he was halfway out the door + the reports that he turned down offers with his NTC yikes. But I still say keep him because the Canes need the scoring.
Faulk on the other hand I am more open to moving ONLY because of the way the Canes have gone about stacking their blueline – but again only if Faulk will return good value – otherwise to start with him on the team as well is not the worst idea. If someone on the right side can effectively slide over to the left then all of a sudden what we tried to run out in the summer for trade ideas becomes a deadly blueline. I mean slavin is the type that I’d have zero hesitation using on the right side he played very well there so the question is do they have a guy who can do it on the left? I think people are actually underestimating the possibility that TVR isn’t the guy who slides over as he has experience playing on the left. Then you can have
Slavin – Pesce
De haan – Hamilton
TVR – Faulk.
If faulk can return a good forward then by all means move him but really cannot sell low he is a value dman at a cheap contract for 1+1 seasons left. Skinner is more valuable to the team based on the teams needs (scoring) but is in the more ‘move it’ scenario with his contract expiring. Such hard choices for the Canes and usually that type of stuff takes TIME. I’d bet money now that the Canes start the season with both of them.
dmilleravid, I’m right there with you. I can’t keep looking at lines with Faulk/Skinner still in limbo. Make a decision one way or another so I can start visualizing this team already. Seriously though, I can be patient, but it’s screwing with the speculation.
I’m cool with a trial run for TAZ. I don’t think it would be bad for the Canes to have a top line of TT-Aho-Ferlund, but it does sound like an optimal scenario for Zykov’s development individually to play with the two.
I love NachoSvech together, and I hope they stay together, but training camp will shed a lot of light on where that relationship is headed. I also very much agree with the de Haan/Hamilton pairing.
The only one of these I might disagree with is Rask with Williams. Sole reason for that being is if and when there is a trade, Rask seems like he might be the best fit as a 4th line center. He’d be fine at the 3 too, which it seems like Matt was talking about. Then again, I can see why this would be intriguing if you’re trying to find someone to drive Rask’s game up a level.
Where’s a time machine when you need one? I need hockey now.
All in good time, gentlemen, all in good time. RFAs, Ottawa, and Pacioretty will probably hold things up for the best deal that can be made.
I like the idea of Necas and Svechnikov together. However anybody think they may need a LW who can take draws as well? A veteran who has played LW and center in the past. Just a consideration I’ve had.
I don’t disagree with points 1-3 and 5 (I remember Ned pitched 40 (or was it just 20?) minutes of shutout hockey at the NHL level in relief of Cam two seasons ago) but if he gets called up in relief he should be treated as legitimate backup.
We now have three left-wings (Zykov, Ferland, McGinn) who can play various levels of disruptive hockey, net-front play, and offensive potential – this is a good thing, in my opinion because you can look for chemistry and effectiveness with multiple options of C/RW.
I really think Ferland’s role is going to be similar to what he did in CGY next to Gaudreau and Monahan. That is his “job” – and I think that his high scoring percentage, mentioned by ct, is a direct product of him doing his job, which includes cleaning up rebounds and being available to collect passes, both in the crease area. I see no reason he can’t play the exact same role here as he did there. As such, his skill set would be wasted on a disruptive line.
I also agree with dmilleravid – that it is tough to discuss lines when you don’t know who will be here. And this gets to your point 4. We have tried to move Rask (both times reported for picks). If he remains with the team and you have Staal, Aho, and Necas as centers then Rask slides into a role that he would excel at – 4th line center. Certainly overpaid for that, his skill level exceeds other 4th line centers and he will own the ice. He also owns the dots. And his offensive skill set makes that line offensively more potent than any line we have iced there in years. But I wouldn’t put Williams there.
The three veteran players I have question marks on are Rask, Skinner, and Faulk – will they or will they not be on the roster come training camp and the start of the season? Until that is known it is hard to play the game of “Who’s Line Is It Anyway?” 😀
tj. I am not trying to be the downer. But let’s look at Ferland as we would look at a Cane.
On Feb. 15 the Flames were 10 games over .500 (30-20-8), better than the Canes at any point last season. Over the remaining 24 games Ferland registered one goal and 7 points (for what it is worth he was also -7 during that stretch). All while playing with Gaudreau and Monahan. There is a reason that Flames fans were after Lindholm long before BP became their coach. They knew that did not have a true top-6 winger in Ferland. He hits people, that is good. But when the playoff push came for Calgary, he disappeared. I have read he might have been playing injured. Still, I am concerned that Ferland on a top line is not really going to help Aho, TT, Svech, or Necas. Give Zykov the chance. Hopefully if Faulk and Skinner are traded a solid two-LW comes back (any of Saad, RNH, Pacioretty would be great).
Not sure I follow this logic. Don’t give the chance to a guy who has actually done it before in the NHL, but to a guy who has played all of ten games in the NHL? I’m not saying Ferland is definitely the answer, but neither is Zykov. Both need to prove it.
less than
The logic is that Zykov put up 7 points in 9 games with Aho and TT. Ferland put up the same amount of points in 24 games with the playoffs at stake playing with two equally talented line mates. If culture change is one of the reasons for having new players, then the logic needs to factor in how you produce when your team is fighting for the playoffs.
I have read quite a few comments on Flames-related sites that are mostly positive about Ferland. He plays hard. Most say the Canes acquired a good player–but one who was overslotted on a scoring line.
Look at it this way. Ferland scored 2 goals in his first 26 NHL games and 4 goals his first full season–71 games. Zykov has 4 goals in 11 games and 2 shifts (he was injured about 5 minutes into his second game in 16-17). We all agree the Canes need goals. Logic would argue that Zykov has more (maybe significantly more) goal scoring potential.
Using that same logic you are crediting Zykov with 7 points in 9 games which were played when the Hurricanes were far out of the playoffs. That should count for even less that what Ferland did before the playoff push. You even suggested Ferland was hurt.
I get that everyone loves our players/prospects, but Zykov has proven little to this point. He, and Ferland, need to earn their shot to play with the best player on the team.
Jamie McBain had like 10 points in his first 14 nhl games and he honestly looked like a future number 1 dman in those games. And then he became Jamie Mcbain.
Sample size is very important. Ferland has enough sample to accurately say that he is probably a good bottom 6 forward and a passable top 6 forward playing with good players. His top end potential is what – Patrick Maroon probably. He seems to me like a clone of Brock Mcginn and i haven’t even watched him yet – they both hit, are known for shooting more than passing, and are fiesty. Both are truly good bottom 6 wingers which by definition means they could play up.
We should remember Brind’Amour’s comments about earning your ice time. Zykov will have to earn his time with Aho and Turbo. He will likely get that chance in camp. I suspect he will be fine offensively, but if he looks overmatched defensively it won’t happen. Everyone mentions Zykov’s offensive abilities, but his skating and defense are a big question.
Pairing Necas and Svechnikov is required? Two rookies? Two rookies that could be overwhelmed or struggle with the NHL game? That’s not a good idea unless they prove they are ready. Necas played a grand total of 38 games last year. Svechnikov played 44. Now they have to play 82 in the best league in the world. Both of these players are too important to the future of the Canes to throw them into the deep end without linemates to show them the ropes. Maybe it could happen later in the season if they show they are capable, but forcing it is not a good idea, IMO.
I see no reason to break up Slavin & Pesce unless the de Haan & Hamilton pair isn’t working.
Rask & Williams? That’s a lot of slow. I’m not so sure about that.
The only way Ned gets a look is with an injury along with consistent play in Charlotte. His ability is there, but his consistency has not been there. Unless he shows consistency he’s not a serious contender to be a goalie in the NHL except under extreme circumstances.
In this particular case, with NachoSvech, I disagree with using a blanket ‘rookie’ judgement on them for a couple of reasons.
1. Unlike Lindholm, Skinner, Hanifin and rookies that we’ve put into the lineup quickly, these two are coming up together. Whereas the others were alone trying to find their way in the NHL, these two are clearly already bonding over their similar situations. IF that translates into on-ice chemistry and comfortability, then their status as rookies really makes no difference. I’m not saying they’ll be superstars right out of the gate, but I am saying Kane and Toews (drafted one year apart) came in playing together and started off very strong. There are examples of success here, and it would be wise to give them their chance to earn a role and see what they can do rather than just write off the possibility because ‘rookies’. And I don’t think Rod will do that. The track record already indicates he is not.
2. If they’re better than the alternatives, talent-wise, and they earn their spot, they are better. Plain and simple. Talent will win out over experience, and they both have talent in spades. If their work efforts are as advertised, they will be playing. I hope they will be playing together
Chemistry is great. Being effective in the NHL is another thing. Rookies make mistakes. Rookies that are even more inexperienced than others, which includes both Necas and Svechnikov, are even more likely to make mistakes. You live with them, but two on one line? I would rather ease them into the NHL with linemates that are more reliable. You can put them together later, or even on the PP early on.
Toews was a special two-way player out of the gate, and he played two years of college hockey. That’s a lot to put on either of these kids.
And Necas played the last two years in the Czech pro league against men. These kids will have a good idea what they’re doing out of the gate. Pair them with a McGinn, a Ferland or a Skinner and who knows what they could do. Further, with Aho and TT already operating on the top line and Staal somewhere in the lineup, these guys have plenty of coverage. It’s not like we’re asking them to anchor the lineup.
Finally, in truth have no idea who will be reliable and who won’t be. Outside of Jordan Staal and Justin Williams anyway, and i would rather put a faster skater alongside these particular two. Kane and Toews were both 19. Is it a guarantee? No. Will it happen? Maybe Should it be tested before discounted? Absofreakinglutely.
I was mostly with less than. My preference would have been to start Necas in the AHL to get him accustomed to the smaller ice and more physical game (I hear the Czech league is not easy, but not as much hitting). However, the team traded the only player who made sense centering Svechnikov. Without Lindholm (though I agree with an earlier point, I believe by tj, that Staal might be a good center for Svech) the only centers with the speed and vision to play with the prized rookie are Aho and Necas. I think putting all three of the best scorers on one line, Aho/TT/Svech, might be overkill. I much prefer a second scoring line.
That is a long way of saying that while I am skeptical, I hope fogger is correct that the rookies hit the ice and make things happen together.
I agree that Necas is further along due to his pro experience. It’s a limited experience due to the few number of games. I know he was hurt in the playoffs, but was he out in the regular season too?
Svechnikov has been playing against teenagers and getting hurt there. You have to be concerned that he will be able to play anywhere close to a full season against NHL competition. I certainly hope so, but he needs and deserves protection from experienced NHL players. Necas isn’t that guy out of the gate, IMO.
If we invite Skinner to dinner (i.e. don’t trade him) he has to fit somewhere in this lineup.
I think Skinner/Rask/PD is the most likely line (two players that Skinner has had some chemistry with in the past).
Putting him with the rookies could make for a dazzling scoringline or a defensive disaster, the latter is probably a tad more likely.
Skinner does not work with the Fins and not with Staal.
What this demonstrates to me more than anything is that the Canes have a bit of a forward log jam at the moment so trades are highly likely for the players that do not fit in, if a partner can be found.
I wonder if Williams culd actually be traded, if he is not named captain of the team.
He’s got experience and he’s got 1 year remaining on his contract. He’s an amazing leader but he’s entering the slower year of his hockey career which limits his on ice performance.
I think his leadership acumen is huge for the young team, especially if he is armed with the C, but if not I could see him being traded in some situations, though most likely near the deadline.
Your first paragraph is probably why Skinner should be traded. He has shown zero chemistry with the team’s other top forwards. The period and a half he played with Aho last season was one of the worst things I’ve ever seen. Skinner isn’t much on sharing the puck in the offensive zone, so putting him with other players that want/need the puck is difficult.
You can point at his faults all you want but could this team use a dynamic bottom 6 winger that on his own can net you 20+ goals pretty much guaranteed? I’ll say yes. Forget the price tag, the Canes are not at the cap ceiling and I’d say the last chance to trade Skinner before talking about getting 0 value if he walks is the trade deadline and not now. you could play the rookies together, TSA, and then Skinner is your third scoring line. You could go with zykov + fins, Staal + Svech (who doesn’t wanna see that tried am i right?), and then skinner scoring line again (necas on the wing or in the AHL). Why does skinner have to be the bad apple fit wise? Tell me how presuming Necas + Svech, Aho+terevainen, Rask + Williams does not fit the definition of being awkward fits? A truly great team could mix and match many of their lines and they’d be fine – but the Canes are full of ‘bad fits’ it seems and Skinner is not the sole one to blame. In my HONEST opinion I would be looking to trade both Rask and Williams for their speed issues and price tags before I’d look to move Skinner.
My point is that there are more fits than you think with Skinner on the team – as expected by the amount of trade calls the team is getting on Skinner MANY teams would happily fit skinner on their roster.
The price for Duchene was too high but wow he was such the perfect fit – a guy whose biggest criticism was that he is difficult to build a line around because he plays too fast for his linemates. Him and Skinner I think could have become such a great combo.
Yeah, when I was reading these exchanges and thinking about the lineup myself I came to a similar conclusion.
I think Skinner and PDG are two forwards that don’t fit in with most people’s idea of the next step.
Rask barely does, due to his salary, but the team is short on centers so the 4th line spot is pretty surely his if the team is unable to trade him.
But Skinner/Ras/PDG could potentially find chemistry, there is some past experience to suggest it is quite possible.
They could form a line with a decent balance of offense in the form of surprise scoring through individual plays and has some defensive soundness, provided that Rask comes in ready to go. That’s not a bad thing to have.
I’m still hoping for help down the middle, an upgrade on left wing, and upgrade in goal, but I can’t always get what I want.
Agree with your positioning of Skinner. Rask and PDG are responsible defensively and don’t really need the puck to do their thing. I think Foegele may fit there too as he seemed to be most effective on the forecheck and down low. He seems to get the puck and create a lot of opportunities for himself as well.
I realize Foegele is a LW as well as Skinner, but he has played C in the past.
Its totally speculation at this point with so many changes which could happen yet.
TAZ, I like very much. Z can be physical too as protection. Only 10 games but I think he showed what he could do.
IMO Foegele/Staal/McGinn would be a great shutdown line that can also score. What I am unsure about is both Foegele & McGinn are LW, so I do not know if that will create a problem with one of them on the off side.
Svechnikov/Necas/Ferland as protection.
Skinner/Rask/Williams. I am not so sure we would have a 4th line, more like 4 lines with no 1 through 4, all capable.
For D:
Slavin/Pesce, as stated by lessthanstable – I see no reason to break up Slavin & Pesce unless the de Haan & Hamilton pair isn’t working.
Hamilton/de Haan
Fleury/TVR
Some folks did not think that Fleury did all that well but he was a fist year D and was in the 2nd paring because Hannifin could not handle it defensively. I suspect he will do better this year as 3rd paring and also more experience.
#7 Carrick, as I think Faulk will be traded for an additional forward which will mess up what I said above for the forwards. 🙂
Also, as noted by others, RBA said ice time will be earned. Pre-season could easily shake the lines up.
I agree with Matt’s projections and also what icecobra (and others) added.
Keep TAZ together, assuming they all return in top shape.
Fernechnikov AND Marnechnikov. My concern with Necas last year was his youthful body on a team where nobody would protect him. He would have been pounded and likely injured.
Many veterans will be wanting to “welcome” our hotdog rookies to the league, and they need to be notified early and often that it means they will take a beating.
It’s a tough job to protect rookies and a couple veterans should share the responsibility.
One comment on defensive pairings: on the PK I would like to see deHaan, Pesce, TVR, and Fleury. After the kill, roll Slavin and Hamilton together with our top scoring line. A kill + a goal on the next shift is almost as momentum changing as a shortie. I think I would remain on my feet after the PK to see that!