During the weekend, the Hurricanes recalled Eetu Luostarinen from the AHL. Today as expected, the other shoe dropped when Sara Civian from The Athletic quoted Rod Brind’Amour as saying that Erik Haula who is now out would not be back “any time soon.”
The news bumps Lucas Wallmark back up into Haula’s third line slot and back fills the fourth line center slot with Luostarinen though I think that is subject to change based on play.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe looks at the new center situation from multiple angles.
Erik Haula
No doubt losing Erik Haula for an extended period team is a big deal. Haula helped make the team team three lines deep at even strength, and he was playing a vital role on the power play. The Hurricanes do not have another player who can do what Haula does on the power play. Jordan Staal has an even bigger body but has just never had a knack for when to screen versus when to slide out for a pass and just does not have the finishing hands of a true goal scorer. Replacing Haula will have to be by committee. The power play may need to adjust a bit with his absence. And at even strength, Wallmark pushes into a bigger role. The big question there is if he has a higher gear offensively.
Lucas Wallmark
Trajectory
If Haula is out for an extended period of time, I think this next stretch could be a fork in the road for Wallmark’s NHL career. As a rookie in 2018-19, Wallmark made two sizable steps forward. First, he was able to step into the third-line center slot vacated when Victor Rask was injured. Playing mostly with Jordan Martinook and Andrei Svechnikov early in the season, Wallmark proved competent even if not flashy at the NHL level. Then when Jordan Staal was out of the lineup for an extended period of time with a concussion, Wallmark made another leap forward stepping into Staal’s top checking role logging a bunch of minutes against other teams’ best lines. Wallmark again proved capable in an even bigger role. In total, Wallmark’s rookie season was a success, but the lingering question was whether he could/would find a higher gear with experience. His 28 points with a reasonable helping of power play ice time was light for being more than a depth or fourth line center. And thus far in 2019-20 he is tracking similarly. Now bumped off the power play, Wallmark’s 20-point pace is nearly identical to the 21 points he had at even strength in 2018-19.
Fit within the Hurricanes structure
On a team with 1A and 1B scoring lines, I think Wallmark could slot nicely as a third line center on a checking-focused line. But on the Hurricanes, the issue with slotting another offense lite, sold two-way center into the Hurricanes top 9 is that Jordan Staal is already exactly that. At the point where Jordan Staal and Lucas Wallmark both center top 9 lines and continue at their historical scoring paces, the Hurricanes quickly become a one-line team offensively and will be challenged to produce enough offense on nights when the forecheck does not click.
Fork in the road career-wise?
Now with 120 NHL games under his belt, I really think this next stretch could be a significant fork in the road for Wallmark’s career. If he can find a higher gear offensively with greater responsibility, he starts to look more like a capable third line center. If instead he continues to muddle along offensively, I think he even more so gets pegged as what he is currently which is a competent and capable depth center who just does not bring enough offensively to slot above the fourth line on a good team at least long-term.
Eetu Luostarinen
Enter Eetu Luostarinen. He looked very good in his brief NHL stint. He also brings a bit more pace and tempo and more of a physical edge than Luostarinen. And based on his play through three games, Luostarinen seems capable of filling a similar role as Wallmark. But only 21 years old and three games deep into his NHL career, the burning question is whether Luostarinen can bring more offensively with his different skill set. Out of the gate on Tuesday, Wallmark slots third and Luostarinen fourth at the center position, but I think that is subject to adjust pretty quickly if Luostarinen can continue on his current path and especially if he starts to produce offensively. Even if not for 2019-20 once the lineup is healthy, I think Luostarinen is playing to make an impression for where he might slot for 2020-21 and beyond.
Jordan Staal
Another ripple effect of Haula being out is that there will again be a bit more pressure on Staal to produce offensively. The timing might be right for this. Staal started slow this season, but his latest line with Ryan Dzingel and Warren Foegele was the team’s best on Saturday in Minnesota. Just maybe timing is right for Staal and his line to find a higher gear and pick up some slack for the loss of Haula.
Martin Necas
Luostarinen or I guess theoretically Wallmark have the potential to change the situation, but I think ultimately Martin Necas is the ideal candidate for a center slot long-term. He brings the dynamic that Wallmark lacks and has the potential to be a tremendous NHL playmaker especially off the rush with his fluid skating ability laterally and straight line speed.
After struggling at the center position for his audition to start the 2018-19 season, I would be surprise to see Necas shifted back to center near-term. He is playing well and building a foundation at the NHL level as a wing, and best is not to mess with positive momentum right now. But that said, I do think more than any other player currently in the system that Necas could be the longer-term heir apparent to Haula’s slot.
Best bet is that the Hurricanes will not revisit Necas at center until late this season or even more likely 2020-21 or later. But if Necas does somehow get a second audition at the center position, count me as someone on the edge of his seat. I have long said that the Holy Grail for the Hurricanes is being able to build a second scoring line behind Aho’s to compensate for Staal’s light scoring and balance the lineup. More than any other player currently in the organization, Necas has the potential to excel in this role.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Do you think Lucas Wallmark has a higher gear offensively, or is he what we have seen so far a competent defensive center who is limited offensively?
2) What are the chances that Eetu Luostarinen seizes the opportunity presented to him, never looks back and claims a more permanent slot in the NHL lineup?
3) Though maybe not yet, what are your thoughts on Martin Necas eventually moving back to center and becoming the catalyst/playmaker for a second scoring line?
Go Canes!
Player A: WJC-18 = 12 games, 4 goals, 4 assists; WJC-20 = 6 games, 4 goals, 3 assists; AHL = 0.78 ppg; NHL at 23 = 72 games, 7 goals, 7 assists.
Player B: WJC-18 = 5 games, 2 goals, 2assists; WJC-20 = 14 games, 7 goals, 7 assists; AHL = 0.90 ppg; NHL at 23 = 81 games, 10 goals, 18 assists.
Player A is exposed to the expansion draft and becomes a “big deal” who plays a “vital role.”
1) Based on the above, I think Wallmark becomes a 50+ point player in Seattle.
2) I think the chances are quite likely. While Haula’s loss reduces the chances of the Canes this season, it might actually be a blessing for the future. The Canes chance of winning the Cup with Haula in 2020 are not nearly as good as the Canes winning a Cup in 22/23/24 when both Svech and Necas have a couple more years experience. Finding out if Wallmark and Luostarinen can produce gives the Canes a better foundation for that three-year window than having Haula score goals this season. The likely contracts for Wallmark and Luostarinen also mean the organization will be able to sign both Svech and Necas to long-term deals.
3) Appropos point 2, if Wallmark becomes a 45-point 3C and Luostarinen becomes a strong 4C, then the Canes have the luxury of Necas at wing or center.
1. I don’t get your “Wallmark-hate” – term used loosely – Matt! LOL! Last year he was a rookie who was effectively asked to stand in for one of the top defensive centers in the league and did so. That alone, shouldn’t we be asking is Wallmark as good as Staal?? I say that somewhat facetiously. This year he centered the 4th line for 16 games – 1G/2A (notably and promisingly the first goald of the season for the Canes). In games as 3C – 1G/1A. He plays to his role and he plays to his linemates. If you want him checking he is going to play a checking role, focus on that. If you now give him a scoring line, it looks like he can make that go, given that limited sample size.
But this is a great opportunity for Wallmark to show what he can do.
2. If not Eetu then Geekie is next C up – he is much more of an offensive-minded center. But Eetu could be this year’s Saku, particularly if he can play wing effectively. I like his play.
3. Just as Turbo never made the move back to center there may be no reason for Necas to move back either. He can handle draws from the right side (once he develops better competency) but the two-way nature of center play is a major stretch for him at the NHL level.
That is one reason I like seeing Wallmark with him.
Nino provides experience and forechecking and will get his offensive game going.
Wallmark can maintain the 2-way play but can focus more on being a playmaker with two good wings.
Necas can backcheck, make plays, and be there for shots from the dots.
That is me looking at things from a unit basis rather than as individuals.
I don’t hate Wallmark. I think he is incredibly good for the role he is in now. I just have yet to see a skill set that gives him significant upside beyond what he already is which is a steady defensive center who slots as a C4 or fill in C3. (I have been wrong many times and would be happy to be on this one too.
I know you are not a Wally-hater, Matt! Hence the LOL! in the initial post. But you are critically assessing his potential in one role (playmaking/scoring center) when he has not been called upon to play that role to any significant degree so far. In his 4 games previously he did okay – now he has a chance for some extended play in this role.
I find pairings and combinations (and roles) to be what is important to a player, as opposed to assessing individual players. Wallmark has not been given the chance to show you what you want to see from him. He will by centering Nino and Necas and we will find
Our team is in the “next man up” phase of a typical NHL season. Good,. playoff bound teams, respond positively. Usually not just one player, but all the players who get better opportunities because of more playing time and better line mates. We are in the lead with little separation from the pack of teams fighting for 3rd in the Metro, or one of two wildcard slots in the East. It’s not just one player who will Haula’s slot, but every player whose role is effected by the ripple effect of his being on IR.
Just got back from the Ottawa and Buffalo road games. Actually ran into Wallmark outside the hotel/arena…real nice guy and thanked me and my wife for coming to see the team on the road (he prob thought I was from NC and not 7 hours away). 🙂 Anyway, I agree this is a big opportunity for him. He may lack in production similar to Staal, but the key is we need more production from several folks so even a modest spike for both Wallmark and Staal helps close the gap.
As a side note, I will say as opposed to previous years more and more Canes fans are seen in the northern visitor arenas. Visiting fans rarely jab at me, but you can tell they are giving this team more cred. It was nice to see.
I have a couple of Wallmark stories as well – he is a great guy and he is really appreciating the opportunity he has both earned and been given.