I will likely do a more detailed, formal, “What I’m watching” type article for the start of training camp, but with another slow news day in late August, today’s Daily Cup of Joe will offer a few quick thoughts on what I will be watching for early in training camp and the first few preseason games.
Filling out key slots
Line combinations are subject to change multiple times during training camp and then again during the season, but I still think it will be interesting to see where Rod Brind’Amour’s starting point is for a couple of key slots in the lineup.
With Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen
Best bet is that Valentin Zykov gets a primary look with the Finnish duo based on his favorable audition in that slot last March, but I will also be curious to see who else sees ice time with them. Micheal Ferland brings a power forward skill set somewhat similar to Zykov’s.
Flanking Jordan Staal
I will also be curious who Brind’Amour tries around Jordan Staal. Indications are that Brind’Amour will push Staal to find a higher gear and play a do-everything role similar to Brind’Amour himself played during his best years as a Hurricanes player. That would suggest that Staal will need help not only defensively for his checking role but also offensively to boost his scoring. If Brind’Amour does not reunite Staal with Aho and Teravainen, it is not clear what other players might fit the bill.
Where does Justin Williams land
Brind’Amour obviously thinks highly of Justin Williams as a leader, but one question is what kind of role Brind’Amour thinks Williams can fill as a player at this stage of his career. Is he still capable of being a complementary player on a scoring line with AHo and Teravainen? Despite losing a step or two to his 2005-06 Stanley Cup self, could he flank Staal like he did Brind’Amour on an elite checking line? Could he provide a steadying presence for teenagers Martin Necas and Andrei Svechnikov? Or…?
Newcomers trying to jump the depth chart
The Hurricanes made a couple interesting European free agent signings this summer somewhat in a Derek Ryan vein. I mean that in the sense that Saku Maenalanen and Michael Fora are not teenage prospects who are necessarily multiple years away from being NHL ready.
If Faulk departs via trade or if a defenseman is injured, there is no clear front runner or experienced player for the #7 defense slot. Michael Fora caught the Hurricanes eye playing steady defense against NHL-ish competition in the world tourney in the spring. Could he be another Niclas Wallin who makes the jump straight from Europe into a depth role in the NHL?
On the forward side of the ledger, Maenalanen is another player who figures to be closer to NHL-ready than your standard young prospect. The Hurricanes forward ranks are crowded only in the sense that there are a number of young players who might be ready to make a mark in the NHL. But if Maenalanen looks like the best option available and also looks like he can contribute offensively, just maybe he leap frogs the promising kids at least for the 2018-19 season.
So I will be watching to see how much preseason ice time each receives and also who they are paired with in practices and games. Then of course I will be watching to see if either looks ready to make an immediate jump to the NHL or if instead AHL seasoning will be required.
Readiness of the kids
The path to winning an NHL roster spot in an open competition is to impress early and often. Svechnikov is incredibly likely to stick at the NHL level simply because the AHL is not an option. But past that, I think all of Valentin Zykov, Martin Necas, Warren Foegele will have to earn NHL slots under Brind’Amour. As such, I will be watching closely to see which youth seem to struggling to get up to NHL speed and which appear to be ready.
What say you Canes fans?
1) What else should I add to my early training camp watch list?
2) Which of those that I listed is most intriguing to you?
Go Canes!
1) Is Ned getting a realistic look–or is the team committed to Darling/Mrazek in some combination hoping to find voodoo magic?
2) If Necas/Svechnikov are going to be used together, then the third winger is critical. I don’t think Williams will be asked to play his off side at this point in his career. Not to be the naysayer this early, but I don’t think either of the rookies develops fully with Ferland. He brings a needed physicality, but I know quite a few Flames’ fans were complaining last season that he was not a top line forward. Necas/Svech need a really strong two-way forward to take some defensive responsibility and feed them the puck in areas where they can succeed. My guess is that Ferland’s style of play wows a lot of people at camp and they miss his limitations. Maenalanen might be an option, but a line with three NHL newcomers is asking for trouble.
(Matt, a search function on C&C would be helpful. I was interested to see comments from last season’s training camp, but using the chronological function was just too time consuming. Anyway, I would ask you and the others who are fortunate enough to make it to camp to be wary. I do remember last year near unanimous optimism in how Darling looked in goal during camp. I also think I recall some positive comments about how much the fourth line had improved.)
1. Forwards: With the number of veterans, young prospects, and foreign imports in camp, right now forecasting any line combinations is just pure guesswork and more of how fans have their own likes and dislikes to make judgments. What we do know for sure is Zykov has to fit in somewhere Svechnikov and Necas have to show they are NHL ready, and we have NHL caliber third and fourth lines. That’s a lot and if these things don’t come together in camp, then without any other player acquisitions we are in for a long season.
2. Defensemen: We are okay with who we have to man at least seven slots and probably eight or nine slots if we had to. Nothing to look for here other than they all come out of camp healthy.
3. Goaltending: Either Mrazek or Darling, and preferably both, need to look like NHL goalies or we go into the season unsettled at the position with no clear help in the organization to remedy any breakdowns.
4. Best Upset Bets: a) Maenalanen wins a position amongst the forwards and b) Rask looks good as fourth line center.
1. I think you have it well covered, Matt. I don’t think there will be an intended competition for goalie other than Darling and Mrazek. Ned gets a look only if both flop during the season.
Although Zykov may have to prove himself as a true NHL player his 1-way contract suggests this is close to a done deal.
And speaking of done deals – they are selling Necas jerseys in The Eye. O/M has made the decision pre-TC.
2. I think the big interest is at the periphery – the 7D slot (Fora vs. Carrick – vs. Fleury if Faulk is not traded), and the 12/13F (PDG vs. Maenalanen vs. Foegele vs. ???).
Also how does RBA shape his lines during the drills (and, ultimately, the preseason games).
From what I hear Necas is penciled in to start the season in Carolina. Hope he is ready. Not a lot of other centermen in the organization to choose from.
1) Do Slavin-Pesce stay together or do they try out Hamilton-Slavin and DeHaan-Pesce?
2) Certainly, who is slotted with Aho-TT is critical, especially because of the ripple effect through the lineup. Zykov is an interesting case. He makes a lot of sense as a net front presence for the two Finns. He could be a valuable addition to the power play in the same role. But looking at his AHL numbers, slotting him elsewhere could be a concern. He led the AHL in goals and had 54 points, yet was a team worst -17. He benefited heavily from PP usage, netting 17 PP goals. I like him with Aho-TT, but if he doesn’t make it with them, I’m not sure where he fits and worry about being a defensive liability. Putting him with Staal doesn’t make sense. 4th line doesn’t make sense. So maybe with Necas on a second scoring line, but then it’s doubtful you have 3 rookies on a line if the plan is putting Necas-Svech together. If Zykov doesn’t find that chemistry, could that move Svech to play with Staal or even up with Aho-TT?
Interesting to me that Foegle had zero PP goals, had 28 goals with the Checkers and was a +22 last year in Charlotte.
I agree with you about Zykov. Hopefully, he fits with Aho & TT and doesn’t struggle so much defensively and with his skating. If not he may just be an AHL lifer. I was surprised at the two year one-way contract.
I was impressed with Foegele who jumped straight from junior to playing with grown men and didn’t miss a beat. Hope he gets a shot at some point this season. I don’t think he saw any PP time in Charlotte for whatever reason. If it’s not his thing that’s OK. I’ll take 20 some goals from a defensive oriented forward any day.
Zykov should definitely get a shot, and Canes desperately need that net front presence. Maybe also think of him as a PP specialist. But just as there were defensive deficiencies with Skinner’s style, it’s potentially a problem with Zykov as well.
I find myself really rooting for Foegle. It was a very brief tryout with the Canes, but just something about his play that I liked and feel like he could play on any line. Foegle-Staal combination feels like it could work well.
I have loved the idea of Foegele with Staal and McGinn for a while. And agree that Foegele can be a nice surprise this season.
I think the concerns with Zykov are mostly unsubstantiated. He was plus 6 in 16-17. So he is not always a huge liability on the ice. Thus his plus 4 in 10 games last season and plus 5 in 12 career NHL games. Zykov is not going to beat people with his speed, but he is more than just a big body who gets in front of the goalie. He has an above average wrist shot from the middle of the ice and is excellent in puck battles along the boards in both zones. Two skills the Canes need. The most overlooked skill is that he excels at shootouts–he is 4 out of 5 in his AHL career.
I for one hope (and expect) both Zykov and Foegele to be big parts of the Canes in 18-19 and beyond.
I think Zykov’s skating issues are significant. It’s not about speed, it’s about edges and changing directions. He’s not good. He will have issues defensively because of it. He will need to be good enough down low to make it worth while. If Zykov is to be successful he will be a specialist, but there are plenty of those in the NHL.
Didn’t know about the shootout stats. That’s pretty important these days.
I am not versed in specific skating issues. However, I do make risk analysis for a living. No one can look at every risk, so we study data and the trends they reveal.
Based on Zykov’s 10-games in the NHL last year, these are his ranks among all forwards according to the SKATR tool created by Bill Comeau:
Game Score: 100
Points: 100
Goals: 99
Primary assists: 99
Secondary assists: 74
Individual shots: 65
Individual expected goals: 99
Shooting %: 96
Penalty +/-: 84
Of course, his skating could impact his teammates. These were his on-ice rates:
Corsi for: 98
Relative corsi for: 89
Shots against: 99
Expected goal share: 98
Relative teammate goal share: 96
Expected goals for: 88
Expected goals against: 92
I will be the first to admit that Zykov will not be this good for an entire season. He could be the one player whose tryout is an aberration. Numbers don’t tell everything. But it is hard to see them telling a story about significant skating issues.
1. Notable risers – players performing better than expected and better than their draft status. Foegele and Kuokkanen were in this group last year and you can say the Canes have had their share of players who outperform their slot – Aho, Slavin, Pesce. How high will Wallmark rise after a stellar year in the AHL? Will Foegele or Kuokkanen exceed expectations again? What about Mattheos and Geekie?
2. Notable fallers – You could say Hanifin and Lindholm underperformed their draft status. Will the same be true of Fleury, Bean and Gauthier? How worried should the Canes be about these former first rounders?
3. The overlooked AHLers – how will Poturalski, Miller and McKegg look compared to younger prospects? Are these guys career AHLers or aging NHL prospects who deserve more respect?
Assuming that the Canes have the same group of people to begin CAMP… (hoping for at least a couple moves ie. A swap of Faulk for a forward, and goalie-either in the same deal or a separate transaction) my guess is there will be quite a turnover from last year’s roster of forwards, and I’m not just talking about the ones who are already gone. I think PDG, Rask, and possibly one more could be moved to upgrade the team.
If a center isn’t brought in by trade or FA acquisition, then Wallmark should have a good shot at a slot here.
Certainly our prospect goalies must be given an opportunity to make this team, as Darling and Mrazek had very poor records last year!
Another possibility is a FA, or trade.
Brindy strikes me as a no-nonsense coach who won’t SETTLE for less than maximum effort and accomplishments…sh#* or get off the pot!
One thing I would add to the watch list is special teams. Who will be the PP 1st and 2nd units?
I predict Rask is on one of the units for his ability to win face offs and his shot. I also expect him to have a great year if he is healthy. It is always a good chuckle when some wonder if Rask can play 4th line center. I would not be surprised if he bounces back with a 45-50 point season.
The PK is another story to watch. Staal can’t play both forward spots for the whole two minutes. Maybe RBA suits up and gets 4 minutes a night on the PK. If no trades are made I’m wondering who will fill the top 4 forward spots on the PK.
I am intrigued by the young players. Necas and Svech have talent that you can’t teach. Will they have growing pains? Sure. Yet when you have two of top 10 prospects in hockey, it is worth the growing pains to let them play. Should be fun to watch them grow together.
Carolina got 1 vote (out of 3), and an honorable mention on Hockeybuzz’s “worst goaltending tandem in he NHL this season”.
To quote the explanatory notes:
“Over the last two seasons, 40 netminders have logged at least 3,000 minutes during 5v5 play.
Scott Darling ranks 37th among them in save percentage while Mrazek is slightly higher at 35th. Neither has performed at even an average level or shown they can put together a string of quality starts.
The hope has to be they can overachieve a little while playing behind a stacked blueline. If not, goaltending will again hold back an otherwise solid Hurricanes team.”
(the other two worst goaltending tandem contenders are Buf and Van)
Any goaltending prospect should get a full and serious evaluation in training camp.
I think JF to Tor for Kapanen and one of their goaltenders or prospects (they are seriously overstacked), though not ideal (the ideal deal includes Nylander), may be necessary.
TD said that the management would look at every position and search for a player that represents an upgrade.
The article and posts pretty much cover it. I will also be watching for a surprise.
If another team makes us an offer that we weren’t expecting, our Mgmt team might take it, if it makes our team better. A true hockey trade that makes both teams better may come out of left field.
In that vein I noticed that Andrew Miller is player overseas this season. That signing slipped under the radar.
Also the second PK unit looks pretty wide open.
1 The possibility of Kuokkanen (?) making an impression, and maybe, forming a speedy young line with Aho and TT. Could be a breathtaking combo. As SN1 above mentioned one of the unheralded prospects making a bid for a position (Poturalski. Saarela. maybe)
2 Can RBA actually get Staal to be more of a 2 way force. So far he has been an elite defender, but mediocre offensively at best.
Nicolas Roy – He missed a lot of training camp with a concussion he got in Traverse City last year. Corey Pronman (in The Athletic) commented very favorably on Roy’s play in that tournament – said something like he was getting close to being an NHL player, was smart, skilled and his skating had improved enough for pro speed. Roy will have a chance to compete in training camp this year. Is it possible Roy could solve part of the Canes’ center problem?
I was really high on Roy last year, thinking he may make the team. Then I saw him get his head knocked off at Traverse City (it was literally right after the opening faceoff) and knew some time would be added to his trajectory. He needs to be able to see that hit coming.
That said, his skills are great and I still look for him to make a big impact.