Unfortunately, the regular Canes fan rite of passage for April is upon us. With only two games remaining in the 2017-18 season for the Carolina Hurricanes, fans are again preparing for a long five-month offseason before even preseason Canes hockey returns. It is time to adopt another team for the playoffs, check the calendar for the draft and dream big for next season being better.
This offseason is a good one for fans who want to go all out in the ‘dream big’ category. With John Tavares scheduled to become a free agent on July 1 and Erik Karlsson seemingly destined to be traded and the Canes having plenty of cap space, the potential is theoretically there for the Hurricanes to add a bona fide superstar to the roster before the start of the 2018-19 season.
If you prefer to just dream big for a bit without considering viability, turn away now. Today’s Daily Cup of Joe considers if there is legitimate potential for either player to be a Hurricane come September when training camp opens.
John Tavares
In terms of what the Hurricanes need, John Tavares is an absolutely perfect fit. He could take any of a couple of combinations of wingers and instantly give the Hurricanes the top scoring line that it continues to lack. Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen took a huge step up offensively in 2017-18 flanking Jordan Staal who is 40-50-point scorer. Put Tavares in the middle of them, and I think that point per game seasons from all three players is not just possible but the expectation.
But is it possible? I highly doubt it. Tavares has hung on to the bitter end with the New York Islanders despite the team’s struggles. If he was not at least teetering on the fence of staying with the Islanders, he would likely have been gone at the trade deadline to at least fetch a return. So if Tavares as a 27-year old is willing to commit the next chunk of his career to a team that missed the playoffs in 2017-18 and has a murky future, I cannot fathom why he would jump to the Hurricanes to do that instead of just staying with the Islanders. For whatever woes they have, the Isles have actually made the playoffs in three of the past six seasons. If Tavares leaves the Islanders, I believe it will be because he wants a better chance at winning a Stanley Cup, and if that becomes as well as he fits into the Hurricanes lineup, I just do not see a search for playoff hope landing Tavares in Raleigh over another 6-10 possible destinations.
Erik Karlsson
As an offensive defenseman, I do not think Erik Karlsson as directly fills a need for the Hurricanes, but the Hurricanes do need offense, and they do need to somehow build out a capable second defense pairing. Karlsson could fit into that equation as a unique offensive catalyst from the back end who could help boost scoring across the lineup and on the power play.
But is it possible? The competition to land Karlsson’s services will include many teams, so the odds of winning such a bidding war are always low. But I think the chances of landing Karlsson are somewhat more possible, but only if the Ottawa Senators value Justin Faulk as a top 4 defenseman. If they do, the scenario that I wrote up in some detail at the trade deadline still applies. In short, if Ottawa wants to replace Karlsson’s skill set and rates Faulk as a top 4 defenseman, he is a pretty good replacement as a right shot with offensive ability and two years remaining on his current contract at a reasonable $4.8 million salary cap hit. Again, dependent on how Faulk rates with Ottawa’s scouts and management, he represents a decent starting point for building a package, and the Hurricanes have a good prospect pool that can help build out the rest of the package. In addition and important is the fact that Karlsson’s situation is significantly different than Tavares’ in that he is already under contract for the 2018-19 season and then becomes an unrestricted free agent. So wherever he goes for the 2018-19 season is not necessarily a long-term commitment. He could take a year to kick the tires on a new home and build his value before ultimately picking his next long-term destination the following summer. As such, he might be more willing to consider a team like the Hurricanes knowing he could easily exit after a year.
Max Pacioretty
Per my incessant ranting and raving a couple months back, I continue to think that the player who makes the most sense comes from whatever tier lies below the Tavares/Karlsson tier in the form of Max Pacioretty. I continue to think that Pacioretty fits perfectly into a plan to continue Aho’s transition to center by adding a veteran proven finisher to the Aho/Teravainen combination. I wrote up in some detail why I think Pacioretty is a good fit on multiple levels in this article on January 18. As a player who is signed only through 2018-19, the potential is there for him to flee the scene after only a single year in a Hurricanes uniform, but if that season helps Aho’s transition to center and nets a playoff berth, Pacioretty’s acquisition will have paid huge dividends.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Do you either John Tavares or Erik Karlsson as even remotely viable targets?
2) Are there other players that you would target instead who are maybe from the next tier lower but could bring almost as much at a significantly lower cost?
3) Are you annoyed that after going quiet for a solid five weeks, that I am back on the Max Pacioretty beat? 🙂
Go Canes!
I believe the thing we need most is offence. The big difference this off season is we have an impatient owner who whats to turn this thing around. He will not be afraid to throw money. He is determined to change things. Again, that is why RF lost his job, not willing to change.
Tavares would be incredible but I do believe even with big money he will probably want to go with a team closer to the cup. But an addition like that could change our dynamic. I think we could offer enough money, it is more would he want to come here.
I would be quite happy with Faulk for Karlsson. That one could be possible but I do think our offensive need is the highest priority. I do realize he is an offensive D.
Pacioretty could be a nice add as well. Fine with him on the list.I do believe we can spend bigger this year, so it is possible to entice these guys. Another add right there with Patch is JVR. I think he could be just as good and he has a brother here, which sweetens the decision for him.
I’ll throw another name out there as a second tier guy, but a type of player that is needed in Raleigh. Justin Abdelkader. He’s the type of physical, veteran player with some skill who could bring a different element to the team. When paired with good offensive players, he brings 40 points but even 30 would be good enough. He struggles, along with his teammates in Detroit the last couple of seasons but the guy competes, brings some much-needed veteran leadership, size and hate to lose mentality. I don’t think he’ll get the $5 mil. he made on his last contract but even there with the Canes salary cap room he’d be a good pickup. He’s not solving all the offensive woes but he would definitely create space for the elf and other smaller players who depend on time and space to make plays. I don’t care about Corsi, points 5 on 5, power play, how many cars he has or any other production statistic, he passes the eye test on what the Canes need. Or someone like him. He’s getting up there in age and with his style of play the contract length is the important thing – no 5 year deal.
What about Dreiseitel from Edm?
I think Edm gave him an exhorbitent contract, that they are going to be stressed out about, what they really need are wingers and upgrade on D to go with their superstar centerman.
I’d prefer RNH as a safer and cheaper alternative but I could see Edmunton try to offload a contract like Dreiseitels because of the salary cap, and the Canes new owner has the money and the team has the space to take on the risk.
The question is how good the guy really is, 8 mill good. If he is, he’s a young center who dazzled in his rookie season and might be out with something to prove.
JVR is the most likely canes pick up. The Canes are awfully fond of family ties and feelgood stories. I got nothing against those, but they generally do not translate to team success.
That being said, JvR is a solid, big winger who can score, no complaints from me.
I hope the Canes can build a team like Bos. They got a neat blend of youth and experience, solid and aggressive d and good goaltending. The best thing about Bos, the players that seemingly came out of nowhere.
1) I don’t see us having a chance at either one of them, but it’s nice to dream.
2)How about JVR and/or Evander Kane? Both UFA’s. If we resign TVR maybe he can convince his brother to sign and Kane could help with scoring and grit , 2 things we sorely lack.
3)I’d be happy with Pacioretty too, but still want Aho at center next year.
IMO re-signing TVR is a no brainer. Absolutely you do that and he is a RFA. Yah, I was thinking the brothers may want to play together and JVR would be a good add.
Kane would be good also. RF is very classy and he would never sign Kane due to his character issues. TD may not give a crap about that. Possible and also good add.
If we’re talking about UFA’s, I don’t think Tavares is an option but JvR or James Neal or David Perron may be.
If we’re talking about players under contract, then Dallas is going to need a bit of a shake-up so what about Tyler Seguin? Similar contract situation to Karlsson/Pacioretty. Same with FLA and maybe Bjugstad. We could also make a play for Jason Zucker in MIN.
All are long shots.
….. But all good thoughts.
1. Tavares or Karlsson: Tavares would be a good fit for us but, IMO, he is only viable if we are willing to pay him substantially above market. He has expressed the desire to play in a major market such as New York, Boston, Los Angeles, etc. He does not want to play in the obscurity of a small market. Karlsson is a viable target. but his main value lies in his playmaking setting up scorers (assists). The question with him then becomes, does he get assists because he increases goal scoring by forwards or does he get assists because the scorers put up a lot of goals and he only was one of the last two to touch the puck before the goal scorer put it into the net. Would I like to have him? Yes. Do I want him enough to pay him what he wants? No.
2. Other players to consider: James VanReimsdyk would be a good target and for sure I would be after him. We would get his net presence and 30+ goals. He’s about even plus/minus, but is not a defensive force. Who cares? We need what he does provide which is scoring EVEN HANDED GOALS (not assists)and net presence. Otherwise, dmilleravid has as good a list as anyone of good targets if you leave off Perron and the price is right. tenininumee mentioned Abdelkader. He would be the type player we could use, but he is not in the upper echelon of forwards to consider as being a major target to acquire. Getting a Tavares type player would be GREAT NEWS and would make a positive difference in this team. Getting ONLY an Abdelkader type player would be BAD NEWS as he would solve our major problem which is scoring.
3. Annoyance: What’s annoying about trying to get one of the better goal scoring wings in the league? He’s a viable subject for discussion. If you are asking whether IMO should we go after Pacioretty, that’s a different question. The answer I would give, as is the case with all of the players, if the price, terms, and conditions make sense, consider him one of my targets. But, my one for sure proviso with him or any other player we pursue, I don’t want a one or two year rental unless it’s a superstar (Seguin, Malkin, Crosby, etc. type) who I can get for money, prospects, depth player(s) or draft picks.
Well, here we are again. Discouraged. Frustrated. Some of us are convinced that with better goalkeepers we could win. Better goalkeepers would have made the difference this past season, our pathetic defensive play notwithstanding.
Some of us believe that we have no scoring. One or two big name scorers will make the difference. They will somehow bring some magic to the team making all of our players play at a different level.
Let’s say that we get a GM who agrees and goes out seeking a goalkeeper and one or two magic big name scorers. Two major factors stand in our way. 1) other teams smell blood in the water. They will not let go of the assets we want for anything less than one or more of our prime roster players. The price will doubtless be less for other teams, but we are desperate. They know it. If they can’t take advantage of us, they won’t do business. 2) let’s say that we meet the price, or failing that we pursue some UFAs. What player is going to want to sign with us? None will be willing to sign at any price. We are losers with a front office in complete disarray. What name player will be willing to waste his playing years waiting for us to get our act together? And to waste this time playing with no enforcer to protect him?
The answer is, nobody.
Just ask Justin Williams what he thinks. I am willing to bet that he would say something close to what he said earlier this season, “It stinks.”
Jeopardy question:
Tavares, Karlsson, and Pacioretty
Answer:
What are the names of three hockey players who will not be suiting up with the Carolina Hurricanes next season?
There will be significant turnover in the team next season – I am expecting 5-6 new faces on the NHL roster.
We will not be able to lure a top-tier free agent.
And I don’t think there is any benefit that makes a 1-year rental fairly priced.
We may a player like JvR – a lot of teams will make a move for him; to get him we have to sell the Canes as more than a temporary home to TvR. But we can pursue $5-6M players with the best of them by offering the promise that we “are building something big” down here. Hmmm, where have we heard that explicit promise before?
I also expect we may well package one or more of NHL roster players (either with limited term (Faulk, Skinner) or young with potential (Lindholm, McGinn) with picks/prospects to net players with 3+ years of contract term remaining to fill in the gaps.
What interests me is what is the dynamic going to be that starts to make these decisions. There are rumors floating of a GM-by-committee as an interim; that Peters has an out he can walk on; etc. The eyes making the decisions could be entirely different then they seem to be now – and may have a whole different view of what direction to take the team.
It will be difficult to land top flight scoring talent without getting fleeced in such deal. I think in order to understand who we might realistically target starts with deciding who we can deal to obtain said player(s) while avoiding the fleece. That means identifying untouchables. Faulk and Skinner should be available but won’t net us the return we need (these two may net an equally inconsistent player, which might be a solid secondary deal).
I believe the only untouchables on the current roster are Aho, Turbo, Staal and Slavin. I am not including prospects or AHL players for sake of this post.
The canary in the coal mine is Jordan Staal. Does Jordo decide to stay or go based on a handful of non-playoff years and with 5yrs remaining on his current deal? Does he personally need a fresh start mentally and physically, especially after this year? He is the only one who can answer this and ultimately may decide the fate of how much we receive in a bigger deal. I could see us getting a solid known 2C (who can serve as a 1C short-term) until Aho and/or Necas are ready in exchange for Staal.
To avoid the free agent wars, perhaps a sign & trade deal where someone like Stastny or Brassard get extended, then dealt to Raleigh in exchange for Staal (who would then join a Blues or Pens team that still has some good playoff years left). In the end we might not land the shiny player, but we might land the right one into the mix we already have. In the end, it all comes down to what we can offer.
I think the scenario you’ve laid out is the most likely and I also agree that Jordan Staal is a key component. Not to stay, but to use as the best bargaining chip the Canes have to land someone in the open market. As most everyone has pointed out at one time or another in this blog, a 2C – no matter how good defensively he is, no matter how much he drives play, no matter how good a guy he is – simply has to score more. On teams with more potent offense, Staal is a beast and very valuable and every team in the league can use a guy like him as a 3C. For this Canes team, maybe another combination of players is a better use of the roster spot and $. I would not be at all surprised to see him moved in the right deal presents itself to whoever the GM is at the time. Staal’s a Hitchcock type player and with only a year left on his contract, if Dallas was so inclined to change things up, Tyler Seguin may be a good match. It will take Staal and another player and/or draft picks but something along a the lines of a move like that may be the type of move that gets made.
1. Tavares and Karlsson are probably not realistic possibilities.
2. Some prime RFA targets: J.T. Miller and Jake Virtanen.
Some prime UFA targets: Evander Kane; JVR; Stastny; Ian Cole; Luke Schenn.
3. I’m all in for Pacioretty.
To complete the overhaul, some major trades will happen. I’m not in favor of strengthening the roster with just one very high-priced player due to the risk. BTW, Skinner has a No Movement Clause so I would expect he stays with us.
You guys are ignoring a very real problem here. What if we put together the magic deal with Jordan Staal and get Stasny or whomever. And then Stasny or whomever exercises his “no movement ” or “no trade” clause and the deal goes down the dumper?
Great discussion to read all at once and consider differing viewpoints. Huge hanks to everyone who makes the comments the best part of Canes and Coffee in an internet world where comments for almost anything are usually horrid. It is downright impressive, and for that I am incredibly thankful. 🙂
As for James van Riemsdyk, I have mixed feelings on him. On the positive side, he adds proven goal scoring that the team does need and could fit pretty similarly to Pacioretty on the left side of an Aho/Teravainen combination. And because of family ties, just maybe he is a higher-end player who is actually within the Canes reach. My concern is that the high end of what is being bandied around is 7 years at $7M per year for a player who will be 29 when the contract starts. The risk on that deal is huge and reminds me very much of the 7-year Bobby Ryan deal that went south in a hurry and that Ottawa is desperately trying to shed right now only a couple years into the deal.